For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Palm oil spot prices in North America experienced a generally stable to slightly downward trend during Q2 2025, with an average charge of approximately -3.61%. Prices close in June at near USD 1079/MT CFR Houston, reflecting subdued buying interest amid mixed supply-demand signals.
• Throughout the quarter, the production cost trend was influenced heavily by logistical challenges including vessel congestion and rising bunker fuel prices on Asia–U.S. shipping lanes, pushing freight costs upward and limiting supply inflows despite softening global prices.
• Palm oil Demand outlook remained cautious but resilient. Food processing and biodiesel sectors showed fluctuating consumption patterns, impacted by regulatory uncertainty and alternative feedstock availability, which moderated aggressive procurement despite relatively stable downstream needs.
• Palm oil Market sentiment throughout the quarter was marked by expected price corrections, which suppressed speculative activity, keeping trading volumes moderate as importers balanced tight supply constraints against soft demand fundamentals.
• The Palm oil price forecast for next quarter anticipates continued pressure from supply-side improvements in Southeast Asia and potential easing in logistic costs, counterbalanced by possible demand gains from bio-based industries adapting to regulatory shifts.
• Palm oil Supply disruptions from Southeast Asian producers due to seasonal weather and labor shortages remained a critical factor, limiting abrupt price declines but also constraining a sustained upward price momentum within the quarter.
• The interplay between freight cost volatility and port congestion in key U.S. hubs injected uncertainty into the import price trajectory, introducing short-term premiums to palm oil spot prices despite underlying demand softness.
• Downstream user industries adopted more conservative inventory management approaches, reflecting a broader trend of cautious capital deployment amid macroeconomic and trade uncertainties affecting import dynamics.
• Forward-looking market commentary suggests that North American palm oil importers will closely monitor crude oil and currency trends to optimize purchase timing, with the price forecast for the next quarter indicating a probable modest correction or stabilization depending on external demand recovery and freight cost normalization.
APAC (including China)
• The overall quarterly trend for palm oil spot prices in APAC, notably in China, demonstrated a downward trajectory with an average decline near -5.29%. Prices in China closed June 2025 at approximately USD 1104/MT FOB Shenzhen, reflecting persistent bearish market conditions.
• Palm oil Production cost trends within the quarter were marked by improving harvesting conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia, contributing to increased output and global oversupply, which pressured prices at origin and dampened export premiums.
• Palm oil Demand outlook remained soft amid sluggish domestic consumption, especially in China, where food processing sectors were constrained by seasonal factors and intense competition from alternative vegetable oils such as soybean and sunflower oils.
• Currency fluctuations, including a stronger Chinese yuan relative to the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah earlier in the quarter, briefly elevated import costs but could not prevent the overall downward trend as demand softened.
• The biodiesel sector’s muted engagement due to lower crude oil prices and regulatory ambiguities further weakened consumption, contrasting with prior quarters that had benefitted from energy-driven demand spikes.
• Export volumes surged during early June as Southeast Asian producers ramped shipments, creating export-driven price competition that pressured domestic markets across APAC, emphasizing the interconnectedness of regional price levels.
• The Palm oil price forecast for next quarter assumes continued pressure from ample inventories and cautious buying behavior driven by economic headwinds, with only potential short-term price support from any unexpected production disruptions or policy interventions.
• Strategic procurement behavior among regional buyers focused on inventory drawdown and risk avoidance amid volatile international markets, contributing to limited upside in palm oil spot price movements.
• Analysts project that the price forecast for next quarter in APAC will hinge heavily on demand recovery and seasonal consumption patterns. Any improvement in production cost trends via improved harvesting efficiency could potentially soften price pressures if matched by supportive domestic demand stimulation measures.
Europe (Germany-focused insight closely following APAC’s downward trend)
• Germany’s palm oil spot prices during Q2 2025 largely mirrored the broader European and APAC downward trend, with an average price index being on the southerly side overall, reflecting persistent oversupply and subdued demand pressures.
• Palm oil Production cost trends faced moderate pressure from rising logistic expenses, including higher freight rates on key Europe-Southeast Asia routes, though marginal improvements in supply efficiency partly offset cost inflation.
• Palm oil Demand outlook within the quarter showed signs of weakening, predominantly due to regulatory uncertainties surrounding biofuel mandates in the EU, cautious procurement from the food processing industries, and a strong preference for alternative oils mitigating palm oil consumption.
• June’s price behavior saw further softening in German market prices, influenced by spillover effects from APAC and North American trends, alongside increasing inventory levels causing buyers to defer fresh acquisitions.
• The Palm oil price forecast for next quarter suggests continued challenges, with downward pressure likely to persist given ongoing excess global supply combined with relatively muted European demand and concerns over sustainability policies limiting aggressive buying.
• Europe's reliance on palm oil as an edible and biofuel feedstock is being tempered by evolving environmental policies, which have contributed to a conservative demand outlook and restrained price support despite overall stable supply availability.
• Supply-side developments highlighted improved production capabilities in Southeast Asia; however, transportation bottlenecks and extended shipment lead times to Europe introduced volatility in landed costs through the quarter.
• The European refining sector showed cautious activity, optimizing operations amid uncertain market signals and fluctuating raw material prices, which directly influenced local palm oil spot prices with a bias toward price stability at lower levels.
• Trading activity in the German market reflected a wait-and-see stance among importers and end-users, driven by expectations of further price corrections and geopolitical risk factors affecting global supply chains.
• Looking ahead, the Palm oil price forecast for next quarter indicates the likelihood of continued price softness unless offset by unexpected supply disruptions or policy-driven demand stimulation. Production cost trends will remain a significant variable shaping market dynamics, especially if freight costs and energy prices fluctuate.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the palm oil market in North America experienced steady demand amidst constrained supply from local producers, which created upward price pressures. Market sentiment reflected cautious optimism due to potential export restrictions and regulatory shifts in key producing countries, which could lead to tighter availability. Furthermore, shifts in the production of competing vegetable oils and fluctuations in currency exchange rates influenced import costs, adding complexity to market dynamics. Although logistical improvements and lower shipping expenses provided some relief, subdued end-user demand moderated the bullish momentum, resulting in a balanced supply-demand outlook throughout the quarter.
Prices showed a relatively stable trend within the quarter, reflecting a balance between steady demand and ongoing supply constraints. Key factors affecting the market included the potential for export limitations, fluctuations in exchange rates, and the rising demand for biodiesel. These elements combined to create a market that was stable to mildly bearish, as external influences continued to shape pricing.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook suggests cautious trading with price adjustments driven by global supply conditions and domestic demand fluctuations. The market is expected to remain sensitive to any regulatory changes and shifts in the global vegetable oil landscape.
Asia Pacific
The APAC palm oil market in Q1 2025 demonstrated a nuanced balance between supply-side constraints and fluctuating demand. The quarter was marked by steady regional and international quotations, supported largely by disruptions in the supply of alternative vegetable oils such as soybean and sunflower. These shortages reinforced palm oil's position as a cost-effective substitute, helping to sustain export interest. While inquiries remained uneven, improved logistics and stable freight rates facilitated smoother trade flows across major APAC exporting countries. Inventory levels were sufficient, allowing traders to meet current demand without facing significant shortages.
Throughout the quarter, palm oil prices in the APAC region maintained a relatively stable trajectory, with monthly fluctuations remaining modest. This intra-quarter steadiness was primarily driven by firm export demand, underpinned by the ongoing challenges in sourcing alternative oils. Despite the broader softening in regional consumption, downstream buyers continued replenishing inventories, buoyed by cautiously optimistic market sentiment. Traders preferred a wait-and-watch approach, reflecting confidence in price stability but avoiding aggressive stockpiling amid uncertain consumption trends.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to experience mild downward pressure as seasonal factors and inventory adjustments come into play. However, the overall outlook remains cautiously stable for the short term. With supply challenges in competing oils likely to persist, palm oil’s export competitiveness could continue to support its pricing resilience across the APAC region in the coming months.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European palm oil market faced a complex landscape marked by a balance of steady demand and supply-side constraints. Market sentiment was influenced by concerns over potential export restrictions from key producing countries and regulatory shifts that could tighten availability. The depreciation of the euro against major currencies added to the complexity of the import costs, further exacerbating supply challenges. Despite these factors, logistical improvements and lower shipping costs helped ease some of the pressure on landed costs, but subdued end-user demand limited any significant upward momentum in prices.
Throughout the quarter, palm oil prices in Europe remained relatively stable, showing only modest fluctuations between January and March. The stability was largely due to steady import volumes and cautious buying behavior from key downstream sectors such as food processing and biodiesel production. While the demand from certain industries remained firm, overall market conditions were characterized by a balance between stable consumption and a cautious outlook due to global uncertainties. Importers took a wait-and-see approach, avoiding bulk procurement and opting for just-in-time purchases.
Looking ahead, the European palm oil market is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with prices showing only minor adjustments. Export restrictions, currency fluctuations, and competing oil supply issues are likely to continue influencing market sentiment. As the quarter progresses, the market is expected to remain cautious, with price adjustments closely linked to evolving global supply conditions and regulatory changes.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
During the entire fourth quarter of 2024, the U.S. palm oil market experienced mixed signals, with fluctuating prices driven by global trends and domestic challenges.
Initially, the market benefited from strong international demand, bolstered by an upswing in Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the U.S. dollar's appreciation against the Malaysian ringgit made imports slightly more expensive, affecting profitability for U.S. traders. A tightening global supply, exacerbated by production declines in Southeast Asia, contributed to rising palm oil costs. The weakening of crude oil futures presented some concerns, as palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock diminished.
Despite these challenges, favorable sentiment in competing edible oil markets, such as soybean oil, kept demand steady, especially in food and biodiesel sectors. Overall, the U.S. palm oil market showed resilience, benefiting from strong global vegetable oil demand, although higher import prices may curb consumption in the near term.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, the Malaysian palm oil market experienced a positive trajectory, with prices rising due to tight supply and strong global demand. Early October saw a notable 1% price increase, fueled by higher exports, which rose 13.6% to 18.9% compared to September. The depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit supported competitiveness, but challenges in the biodiesel sector due to weak crude oil futures and geopolitical tensions persisted. In November, tightening supply from reduced production forecasts and strong demand led to price increases, with the benchmark price following the continuous upward trajectory. Furthermore, expectations of Indonesia raising its export taxes in December further bolstered optimism for Malaysian palm oil, as higher Indonesian taxes often prompt buyers to turn to Malaysia. Despite a slight decline in exports, strong demand from key markets like Bangladesh balanced losses from other regions. By December, prices continued to rise due to global supply constraints and reduced production forecasts across Southeast Asia. High palm oil prices curtailed consumption, but persistent demand kept the market buoyant, suggesting a positive near-term outlook. As a result, the market remains highly sensitive to global supply-demand shifts, geopolitical uncertainties, and policy developments, all of which will continue to influence market dynamics in the coming months.
Europe
Germany's palm oil market in Q4 2024 followed a similar trajectory to global trends, with rising prices influenced by tighter supplies and geopolitical factors. Palm oil imports were impacted by the rise in global prices, driven by reduced production in key exporting countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. The appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar helped maintain palm oil's competitive edge in European markets. However, challenges such as fluctuating crude oil prices and uncertainties in biodiesel demand added volatility to the market. Additionally, Germany’s push for more sustainable sourcing of palm oil further complicated market dynamics, as stricter regulations and certification requirements heightened the cost of imports. Despite these pressures, strong demand in the food and cosmetics sectors supported palm oil consumption. The market remained sensitive to production forecasts in Southeast Asia and potential policy shifts in Indonesia, which could further impact Germany’s palm oil trade in the coming months.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, North American palm oil prices experienced a steady increase, aligning with broader trends in the Asia-Pacific region. This rise was propelled by both supply and demand factors, notably robust demand from end-user sectors that drove importers to focus on building inventories. Market players, responding to these favorable conditions and aiming for profitability, refined their pricing strategies to capitalize on this trend and sustain competitive positioning.
Furthermore, the upward trend in palm oil pricing was reinforced by concurrent price hikes across other edible oils, especially soybean and sunflower oils. These increases supported an optimistic market sentiment and encouraged further inventory accumulation. Additionally, a consistent rise in freight costs contributed to the elevated pricing environment, as logistical expenses added another layer of cost that market participants factored into their strategies.
Overall, the market sentiment throughout the quarter remained positive, underpinned by strategic pricing adjustments and inventory management efforts. The edible oil sector showcased adaptability, with traders navigating changing conditions to maximize gains while reflects a dynamic and growth-oriented period for the North American palm oil market, with resilient demand and pricing tactics helping to shape a bullish outlook in the broader edible oil landscape.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward towards Q3 2024, the Palm Oil pricing in the APAC region remained stable, reflecting a consistent market sentiment, driven by a confluence of factors. Strong demand from various sectors, including food, biofuels, and oleochemicals, played a significant role in fueling the price surge. Additionally, supply constraints due to reduced production levels and logistical challenges further supported the bullish market sentiment. China witnessed substantial price changes, reflecting the broader regional trends. Importing regions strategically capitalized on currency fluctuations, adopting cost-effective procurement strategies to mitigate financial risks amidst dynamic market conditions. This preference for long-term contracts signifies a high level of confidence among market participants regarding the trading sentiment of palm oil demand and pricing trends throughout the quarter. Additionally, price fluctuations in other vegetable oils like soybean oil and sunflower oil could also have a direct impact on palm oil prices due to substitution effects, thereby leading merchants to opt for the most cost-effective product.
Overall, the market exhibited around 1% increase from the previous quarter, highlighting the steady upward trajectory in pricing. Ending the quarter on a high note, the latest price of USD 1220/MT of Crude Palm Oil FOB Shenzhen in China solidified the overall increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European Palm Oil market saw a promising upward trajectory, paralleling trends in North America and reflecting a global alignment in market sentiment. Consumer confidence caused an early surge in buying activity, which moderated into stable pricing levels following a market correction. This balance helped attract new buyers and revived demand, reinforcing the market’s upward trend. Currency fluctuations initially posed challenges but ultimately created opportunities for European traders to capitalize on favorable exchange rates, stimulating an uptick in cross-border trade. The European market benefited from these advantageous trade conditions, boosting both export levels and pricing. Additionally, focused efforts on reducing excess inventory streamlined the supply chain, enhancing efficiency and preparing the sector for sustained growth within various sectors including the oleochemicals. Freight costs rose during this period, further supporting price increases and bolstering positive sentiment for Palm Oil exports from India, one of Europe’s major suppliers. Overall, the convergence of demand revitalization, improved supply chain logistics, and the strategic impact of higher freight costs contributed to a robust and competitive European market landscape.
FAQ:
1. What was the trend in Palm Oil prices across North America in Q2 2025?
In North America, palm oil prices displayed a mildly bearish tone in Q2 2025, with spot prices averaging a decline of around 3.61%. Despite moderate downstream demand from food and biofuel sectors, high freight charges and port congestion constrained supply, preventing any sharp price corrections and maintaining prices near USD 1079/MT CFR Houston.
2. Who are the top global players in the Palm Oil market?
Leading global players in the palm oil market include Wilmar International (Singapore), Sime Darby Plantation (Malaysia), Golden Agri-Resources (Indonesia), IOI Corporation (Malaysia), and Adani Wilmar (India). These integrated producers dominate global supply through extensive plantations, refining, and export operations, primarily focused on Southeast Asian production hubs.
3. What factors influenced Palm Oil price trends in APAC and China during Q2 2025?
In APAC, especially China, palm oil prices declined by approximately 5.29% due to robust supply from Indonesia and Malaysia and tepid demand from the food and biodiesel sectors. Increased competition from other vegetable oils and favorable weather-induced harvesting efficiencies drove oversupply, which suppressed prices despite temporary currency-based cost increases.
4. How did Palm Oil pricing evolve in the European market, particularly Germany, in Q2 2025?
Germany’s palm oil market followed a downtrend similar to APAC, pressured by global oversupply, cautious food-sector demand, and uncertainty in EU biofuel mandates. Spot prices declined steadily through June 2025 as sustainability concerns, inventory accumulation, and higher freight costs discouraged aggressive procurement, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
