For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Paracetamol market displayed a generally bearish price trend, primarily driven by weak demand, high inventory levels, and ongoing logistical challenges. In January, prices continued to decline by around 3%, influenced by subdued demand from sectors like pharmaceuticals and food, along with elevated stockpiles. Global oversupply, particularly from key producers, further pressured the market, while shipping delays at major U.S. ports exacerbated the situation, limiting new procurement.
February followed a similar pattern with continued price declines as oversupply remained, compounded by improved logistics and lower shipping costs, making imports more competitive. Domestic buyers in the pharmaceutical sector showed minimal purchasing activity, focusing on managing existing inventories ahead of anticipated tariff changes. However, in March, the U.S. imposed tariffs on several major trading partners, including China, which created short-term uncertainty and spurred accelerated procurement.
This resulted in upward pressure on prices, but the overall impact was tempered by strong global production and continued logistical bottlenecks. Despite this brief uptick, demand remained stable, and the market ended Q1 2025 on a relatively steady note, with lingering concerns about trade disruptions and global supply chain conditions. Moving into Q2, the market is expected to remain subdued, with inventory management and flexibility in procurement strategies being key priorities for businesses navigating the ongoing volatility.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, China's Paracetamol market witnessed significant price fluctuations, marked by a downward trend in January and February, followed by a rebound in March. The early part of the quarter was characterized by weak demand and oversupply, particularly in January, where sluggish domestic consumption, excess inventories, and a contracting PMI (49.1) led to price pressure. The economic uncertainties, including the risk of U.S. tariffs and broader deflationary trends, further dampened market sentiment.
By February, the oversupply situation worsened as the Lunar New Year holidays reduced industrial activity, and trade restrictions compounded the excess inventory, especially in key importing nations like the U.S. and Germany. As a result, manufacturers slashed prices to move excess stock and adjust to weak market conditions. However, March saw a reversal in this trend. Prices began to rise due to a tightening of supply, fueled by the clearing of pre-holiday inventories and the resumption of industrial activity.
A return of demand in the pharmaceutical and food processing sectors, coupled with rising costs of production, pushed prices upwards. Additionally, logistical challenges, including congestion at major ports and an increase in export orders, strained domestic supply further, driving prices higher. As the quarter concluded, the market showed signs of stabilization, with a modest recovery in prices, signaling a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand environment moving into Q2.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German Paracetamol market experienced significant price fluctuations, primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics and logistical challenges. January saw a notable price drop of -3.61%, driven by an oversupply situation. Despite logistical disruptions, high inventories and competitive offers from Asian suppliers allowed European buyers to negotiate favorable terms, particularly as they prepared for the Lunar New Year holiday.
However, the market remained well supplied, leading to a shift in pricing power toward buyers. In February, prices continued to decline due to weak demand from the pharmaceutical sector and improved supply conditions. Enhanced production and steady imports, coupled with reduced ocean freight rates, further pressured prices downward. The euro’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar also contributed to lower costs for buyers. The trend reversed sharply in March, with prices rising significantly. Supply chain disruptions, including severe port congestion and labor strikes in major European ports like Hamburg, limited the availability of imported Paracetamol.
This, combined with increasing demand as industries like pharmaceuticals restocked ahead of Q2, led to a tightening market. Suppliers regained pricing power, and prices increased accordingly. Overall, Q1 2025 saw a volatile market, with prices dropping initially but rising in March due to supply chain issues and a shift in demand. Moving forward, businesses should focus on flexible procurement strategies and maintain adequate inventories to navigate potential market uncertainties.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. Paracetamol market faced significant price declines in October and November 2024 due to market saturation, subdued demand, and competitive supplier strategies. Oversupply was exacerbated by stable raw material availability and reduced production costs, enabling manufacturers to lower prices. Hurricane-related disruptions and port strikes further pressured prices, while cautious end-user procurement dominated market behavior.
In November, reduced inventories, lower export prices, and holiday-driven supplier discounts intensified the downward trend. However, supply chain improvements, including better inventory management and increased port activity, helped stabilize the market. Manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery but remained in contraction territory, signaling ongoing weakness in manufacturing activity.
December 2024 marked a turning point, with supply chain constraints, rising production costs, and pre-holiday inventory building driving price increases. Concerns over trade policies, including potential tariffs on Chinese imports, added strain, pushing businesses to adopt preemptive inventory strategies. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, reflecting weakened output and client hesitation amid political uncertainty. By the end of the quarter, the price of Paracetamol (USP, FDA) CFR Houston in the USA settled at USD 3,495/MT showcasing a quarterly decline of 2.70%, indicating a challenging pricing environment.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, China’s Paracetamol market faced significant price volatility due to shifting supply-demand dynamics. October and November saw persistent oversupply driven by heightened production capacity and strategic inventory reductions ahead of the holiday season. Prices fell as demand remained moderate, with buyers benefiting from stabilized procurement opportunities. However, December marked a pivotal turnaround.
Manufacturers throttled production, inventories were critically depleted, and rising post-holiday Western demand reset market pricing. This structural shift signaled a recalibration of supplier leverage, potentially reshaping global trade flows. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing sector showed resilience, with the PMI exceeding the 50-mark for three consecutive months, supported by government stimulus.
Growth was led by strong domestic buying activity and expansion in key sectors like automotive and machinery. However, weak export orders, stagnant employment, and cautious global demand tempered recovery momentum. Input cost surges and rising prices added pressure, signaling ongoing challenges for the sector in the near term. The quarter-ending price of USD 3,300 per metric ton FOB Shanghai reflected negative sentiment in the region with an average quarterly decline of 1.42%.
Europe
Germany’s Paracetamol market in Q4 2024 faced significant volatility, transitioning from a bearish trend to upward price pressures by year-end. October and November were marked by weak demand, lower production costs, and oversupply, forcing producers to resort to discounts to manage excess inventories. Regional importers maintained a conservative stance, with financial constraints limiting procurement activity. Competitive freight rates and a stronger euro further pressured prices, reflecting subdued industrial activity and a contracting manufacturing sector, as indicated by a stagnant PMI at 43.
However, December brought a notable shift. Tight supply conditions, rising raw material costs, and constrained logistics disrupted the supply chain, reversing the downward trend. German buyers faced increased procurement costs, compounded by inflation rising to 2.6%. Despite weak downstream demand, inventory reductions and supply constraints pushed Paracetamol prices upward.
This transition highlights structural challenges in the supply chain and the need for robust procurement strategies. The market’s shift underscores the growing complexity of navigating supply-side disruptions and inflationary pressures in a highly competitive landscape. The quarter recorded price with the ending price settling at USD 3,450/MT CFR Hamburg showcasing an average quarterly decline of 1.79%.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, Paracetamol prices have significantly declined in North America, particularly in the United States. This downward trend was largely driven by a reduction in production costs in major manufacturing and exporting countries, intensifying price competition. As U.S. buyers anticipated further price declines, many postponed new purchases, worsening the supply-demand imbalance and increasing downward pressure on prices.
Companies actively liquidated excess inventories to reduce storage costs, further contributing to market oversupply and diminishing buyers' willingness to pay higher prices. The U.S. market's challenges were compounded by weak demand both domestically and internationally, with reduced demand from neighboring regions exacerbating the situation. As a response to this weakened demand, manufacturers cut production, leading to the first contraction in supplier lead times in three months.
While prices initially declined, a mid-quarter increase was observed due to rising global demand, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, which tightened supply from key exporting regions. Additionally, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar inflated import costs. By the end of the quarter, the price of Paracetamol (USP, FDA) CFR Houston in the USA settled at USD 3,800/MT, indicating a challenging pricing environment.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Paracetamol market in the APAC region experienced a downward price trend due to multiple factors. China faced significant challenges from economic, geopolitical, and seasonal influences. In July, prices dropped sharply due to oversupply and reduced domestic and international demand. The appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar diminished export competitiveness, leading to increased domestic supply. Geopolitical tensions disrupted trade flows and raised freight costs, complicating logistics. Additionally, scheduled plant shutdowns prompted inventory liquidation, particularly for heat-sensitive products like Paracetamol, while falling costs for para-aminophenol further contributed to price declines.
August continued to reflect oversupply, with aggressive price reductions from suppliers managing excess inventories. Weak domestic consumption and ongoing supply chain disruptions strained the market, resulting in preemptive destocking of powdered Paracetamol due to moisture concerns from the monsoon season. This trend persisted into September, exacerbated by increased production capacity and logistical challenges. As the quarter concluded, market players offered discounted prices to clear inventories, indicating significant price pressures. However, mid-Q3 saw a brief price increase driven by strong demand from downstream industries and rising input costs. The quarter-ending price of USD 3,450 per metric ton FOB Shanghai reflected negative sentiment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Paracetamol market, particularly in Germany, experienced a significant price decline influenced by various global and domestic factors. Reduced production costs in key manufacturing countries allowed producers to adopt competitive pricing strategies, easing upward pressure on global prices. Anticipating these favorable conditions, many buyers postponed purchases, resulting in decreased demand. To minimize storage costs and reduce the risk of product degradation, companies liquidated their inventories, which further contributed to the decline in prices as market participants destocked at discounted rates. The appreciation of the Euro against the USD also provided a stabilizing effect on the market.
Despite improved procurement conditions, market sentiment remained cautious, with prices consolidating at lower levels throughout the quarter. The persistent downward trend in prices can be attributed to lower energy costs and ongoing congestion at major container ports in Northern Europe, adding uncertainty to the market.
Midway through Q3, a notable price surge occurred due to rising production costs, increased global demand, and maintenance shutdowns at critical production facilities. The quarter recorded price with the ending price settling at USD 3,645/MT CFR Hamburg. Overall, Q3 2024 showcased a dynamic pricing environment driven by supply chain challenges and robust market demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Paracetamol market has experienced a persistent decline in prices, driven by a combination of factors that have created a challenging pricing environment. The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to reduced freight charges, lowering overall shipment costs and impacting Paracetamol pricing. Concurrently, substantial inventories from prior bulk purchases have subdued market sentiment. Diminished purchasing activity and weakened consumer confidence, coupled with ongoing inflationary pressures, have further constrained demand.
Focusing on the USA, the country has seen the most notable price changes in the region. The quarter has been characterized by a downward trend in prices, with decreasing demand and ample inventories exerting significant downward pressure. Seasonal factors, which typically result in lower demand during this period, have exacerbated the price decline.
Market disruptions, including temporary shutdowns at key plants such as [Plant Name], have also influenced dynamics. However, the impact of these disruptions was less severe due to the existing inventory surplus. As a result, the pricing environment for Paracetamol in the USA for Q2 2024 has been distinctly negative, with the quarter ending at USD 3875/MT CFR Houston and an average quarterly decline of 2.22%.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Paracetamol market in the APAC region demonstrated notable stability, characterized by balanced supply and demand dynamics. The equilibrium was maintained despite pressures from raw material costs and fluctuating energy prices. The market experienced consistent pricing, supported by the absence of major plant shutdowns and disruptions. Additionally, stable inventory levels and cautious procurement practices from downstream industries contributed to this stability, ensuring that supply aligned well with steady demand.
Particularly in China, the most significant price movements occurred within a broadly stable environment. Prices initially surged due to strong demand following market reopening post-Lunar New Year and increased production activity. However, as the quarter progressed, seasonality and strategic inventory management by suppliers led to a stabilization of prices. This stabilization reflected a well-managed balance between supply chain adjustments and market demand.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Paracetamol (USP, FDA) FOB Shanghai settled at USD 3525/MT, with an average quarterly decline of 3.57%. This price point, which remained unchanged from the beginning to the end of the quarter, highlights a stable pricing environment. Overall, the market demonstrated resilience and positive sentiment amidst external fluctuations, reflecting effective supply chain management and consistent demand.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Paracetamol market in Europe experienced a pronounced downturn in pricing, driven by an oversupply situation. Bulk procurements made in anticipation of heightened demand resulted in surplus inventories across the region. This oversupply was exacerbated by reduced purchasing activities and weakened consumer confidence, impacted by rising inflationary pressures. Additionally, a reduction in freight charges and the alleviation of geopolitical tensions further contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
The supply dynamics were notably affected by production disruptions and plant shutdowns in Asia. While these disruptions initially tightened supply, they were offset by high inventory levels, which mitigated any potential supply constraints. Germany saw the most significant price fluctuations, with prices showing a persistent decline throughout the quarter. The market exhibited a clear correlation between falling prices and seasonal trends, with decreased demand during the summer months exacerbating the downward trend.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Paracetamol in Germany settled at USD 3700/MT CFR Hamburg, reflecting a quarterly average decline of 2.90% and an overall decrease of 1% compared to the first half of the quarter. This decline underscores a bearish market environment influenced by the confluence of oversupply, stable geopolitical conditions, and reduced logistical costs.
