For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Petroleum Jelly Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increased production costs.
• Petroleum Jelly production costs increased in Q3 2025, influenced by a 2.6% rise in August 2025 PPI and strengthened refinery margins.
• Consumer-grade Petroleum Jelly demand was supported by 5.42% retail sales growth and 4.3% unemployment in September 2025.
• Industrial Petroleum Jelly demand saw weak growth, with industrial production up only 0.1% in September 2025.
• Pharmaceutical sector demand for Petroleum Jelly was robust in Q3 2025 due to increased US FDA drug approvals.
• Petroleum Jelly price trends are expected to remain firm, supported by persistent cost pressures and stable crude oil prices.
• US crude oil inventories remained constrained in Q3 2025, notably below the seasonal five-year average, impacting supply.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, alongside 3.0% CPI, eroding purchasing power for discretionary demand.
Why did the price of Petroleum Jelly change in September 2025 in North America?
• Rising production costs, with August 2025 PPI up 2.6%, pressured Petroleum Jelly prices.
• Strengthened US refinery margins in Q3 2025 increased feedstock costs for Petroleum Jelly production.
• Constrained US crude oil inventories in Q3 2025, below seasonal averages, impacted supply dynamics.
Europe
• In Germany, the Petroleum Jelly Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices and contracting industrial activity.
• Petroleum Jelly production costs decreased due to a -1.7% year-on-year fall in producer prices in September 2025.
• European refining margins surged in September 2025, and Brent crude futures rose, impacting feedstock costs.
• Industrial demand for Petroleum Jelly was bearish, with industrial production down 1.0% in September 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index in Germany was contracting in Q3 2025, signaling reduced demand for industrial lubricants.
• Consumer demand for Petroleum Jelly remained stable in Q3 2025, despite 2.4% CPI inflation, supported by retail sales growth.
• A stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 and stabilizing consumer confidence supported consumer-grade demand.
• Growth in Germany's pharmaceutical and beauty markets in Q3 2025 positively influenced consumer-grade Petroleum Jelly demand.
• Global observed oil stocks increased in July and August 2025, contributing to higher overall inventory levels.
Why did the price of Petroleum Jelly change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices fell 1.7% in September 2025, lowering Petroleum Jelly raw material costs.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, weakening industrial demand.
• Refining margins surged, and Brent crude rose in September, affecting production costs.
APAC
• In China, the Petroleum Jelly Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing and negative consumer price inflation.
• Petroleum Jelly production costs faced upward pressure from accelerated manufacturing input cost inflation in August and September 2025.
• Demand for Petroleum Jelly in consumer applications was dampened by -0.3% CPI and 89.6 consumer confidence in September 2025.
• Industrial demand for Petroleum Jelly was mixed; Manufacturing Index contracted, but industrial production grew 6.5% in September 2025.
• The Petroleum Jelly demand outlook for personal care and pharmaceutical sectors remains positive, with projected market growth in 2025.
• Crude oil prices were relatively stable in Q3 2025, but increased refinery margins impacted feedstock costs for Petroleum Jelly.
• Retail sales increased by 3.0% in September 2025, offering some support for Petroleum Jelly demand in consumer-facing products.
• Weak exports in August 2025 contributed to pressure on China's manufacturing sector, affecting overall industrial demand for Petroleum Jelly.
Why did the price of Petroleum Jelly change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Negative consumer price inflation of -0.3% in September 2025 reduced consumer purchasing power.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, signaling reduced industrial demand.
• Producer prices fell by -2.3% in September 2025, indicating reduced pricing power for producers.
