For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The average North American Phenol Price Index stood at USD 1040/MT, FOB Louisiana during Q2 2025, a decline of 9% from Q1 2025, with a trend of mixed pricing—early-quarter decrease, mid-quarter recovery, and late-quarter stabilization.
• The downward price movement was initially catalyzed by muted market sentiment, weak downstream demand by construction and automotive industries, and cautious buying behavior owing to recently levied tariffs.
• In April, excess supply and sluggish offtake by resin and plywood producers forced sellers to trim quotations to spur demand, and prices fell.
• The Phenol Demand Outlook improved modestly by mid-May as buyers responded to rising feedstock benzene costs, increased freight rates, and clearer downstream signals from infrastructure and auto segments.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained relatively steady throughout the quarter, with early cost relief from low benzene values later offset by higher energy and feedstock prices by June.
• By the end of June, stable production, ample inventory levels, and consistent downstream offtake-maintained price stability at USD 1040/MT, despite subdued export activity to China, India, and Canada.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates an upward trend, supported by stronger benzene contract settlements, resilient demand from adhesives and phenolic resin industries, and potential Gulf Coast logistical constraints tied to seasonal shipping congestion.
Europe
• Phenol Price Index averaged USD 845/MT, FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, marking a sharp 18% decline from Q1 2025’s average of USD 1030/MT, with the quarter showing a volatile trend: early bearishness, mid-quarter recovery, and a soft close.
• The Phenol Price Index fell sharply in early April due to excess supply, weak downstream offtake from automotive and construction sectors, and lower benzene costs, leading to bearish sentiment across the German market.
• Mid-April to late May showed intermittent price rebounds driven by tightened inventories, production cutbacks, and a brief demand uptick from laminates and phenolic resin applications, but these gains lacked strong momentum.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained volatile as benzene prices fluctuated; rising energy and crude oil costs in late June briefly pushed margins up, but these were offset by weakening demand fundamentals.
• The Phenol Demand Outlook remained fragile, with construction and automotive industries struggling due to high interest rates, labor shortages, and soft passenger vehicle sales in Germany and France.
• Late June saw a supply-driven bounce in the Phenol Price Index, fueled by Ineos Phenol's shutdown at its Gladbeck facility (650,000 MT/year), which triggered bullish sentiment despite weak downstream pull.
• Overall market sentiment was undercut by tariff uncertainties, sluggish order flows, and a cautious procurement environment, leading buyers to limit forward purchases and operate at spot-level only.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 suggests renewed downward pressure as demand conditions remain weak and recent supply shocks begin to ease. A return of Chinese-origin imports and normalization of stock levels may pull the Phenol Price Index lower amid reduced trade activity and softer benzene costs.
APAC
• The Phenol Price Index in APAC averaged USD 826/MT, CFR Qingdao in Q2 2025, reflecting a 6.5% decline from Q1 2025, with a mixed quarterly trend marked by an early sharp decline and gradual recovery by late June.
• The Phenol Price fell significantly in April and early May due to high inventory levels, ample imports from Japan and South Korea, and subdued downstream demand from plastics, automotive, and construction sectors.
• Weak Phenol Demand Outlook was shaped by sluggish real estate activity, limited infrastructure spending, and trade tension-induced buyer caution, particularly amid US–China tariff uncertainties.
• By mid-to-late Q2, the market showed signs of stabilization, as export volumes normalized, benzene feedstock prices increased, and automotive sales, especially NEVs, supported resin demand.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained mostly steady throughout the quarter, with falling freight rates in April–May offsetting rising benzene values seen in June.
• Despite temporary bullish sentiment driven by tighter benzene and maintenance turnarounds, oversupply and macroeconomic caution capped price recovery, limiting upward momentum.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates a downward correction, driven by weakening crude oil and benzene prices, post-holiday demand tapering, and continued macroeconomic uncertainty, reinforcing the cautious procurement stance of Chinese buyers.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the price trend for Phenol in the North American region consistently demonstrated a bullish outlook. Throughout January, the combination of severe winter storms and disruptions in freight transportation created notable supply chain bottlenecks, prompting a significant price increase. Concurrently, rising feedstock Benzene prices escalated production costs, reinforcing price pressures.
In February, Phenol prices surged further. Continued supply tightness, exacerbated by low stock levels and heightened sensitivity to Benzene price fluctuations, contributed to the robust demand for Phenol. Buyers maintained steady purchasing habits, undeterred by rising costs, which allowed sellers to elevate price quotations for February deliveries.
By March, the strengthening construction sector, driven by an increase in construction spending, bolstered Phenol demand, especially in light of improved single-family homebuilding. However, the market confronted challenges, notably increased tariffs on essential imports like lumber, which could potentially impact overall project budgets and demand. Despite these challenges, the demand for Phenol remained resilient, leading to a sustained bullish price trend throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the price trend for Phenol in the European market experienced notable fluctuations. January began with a significant price spike, driven by increased crude oil and benzene costs, despite moderate demand. The upward pressure from production expenses outweighed the lackluster consumption, pushing prices higher.
February saw a continuation of this bullish trend, with a further rise in Phenol prices due to tightening supply amidst steady downstream demand. Limited availability and optimistic market sentiment fostered a competitive environment, prompting manufacturers to adjust prices upwards in response to strong buying inquiries and rising upstream energy costs.
However, March turned bearish, as Phenol prices dipped significantly. This decline was attributed to stagnant demand and rising inventory levels, primarily due to oversupply and slowing consumption in key sectors like construction. Efforts by producers to balance output against a backdrop of excess supply only exacerbated price reductions as they sought to improve market liquidity.
Overall, the quarterly trend reflected a volatile market characterized by initial price increases followed by a decline, highlighting ongoing challenges in demand recovery and production dynamics.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Phenol market in the APAC region experienced significant volatility, characterized by a shift from initial bearish conditions to a bullish trend by March. January began with declining prices driven by weak demand from the construction sector and a prevailing destocking phase. With high inventory levels and limited export opportunities, buyers exhibited caution, leading to subdued trading activity.
In February, the market showed signs of recovery with prices increasing significantly. Tightening supply due to plant shutdowns and improved industrial activity after the Spring Festival contributed to this upward trend. The rise in China's Manufacturing PMI indicated a stabilizing economy, bolstering demand for Phenol, particularly from the construction sector, where phenolic resins were vital.
By March, Phenol prices surged further as supply constraints intensified. Producers implemented price hikes amidst growing concerns over supply limitations and increased raw material costs. The construction sector, while recovering remained cautious, with optimistic government policies fostering gradual market confidence. Overall, the quarterly trend indicated potential for future demand growth as economic conditions stabilize.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 brought a drop in prices for the North American Phenol market, particularly in USA, was primarily driven by weak downstream demand, a plentiful supply, and the impact of seasonal factors. A consistent downward pressure on prices marked the quarter. October saw prices fall due to weak downstream demand from construction and automotive sectors, despite lower benzene costs. November continued the decline, influenced by the winter slowdown, destocking, and high operating rates leading to oversupply. December saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels due to persistent weak demand and abundant supply.
The Phenol market saw weak demand from construction, automotive, and polymer sectors (polystyrene). High operating rates in November created oversupply, while December saw stagnant prices at lower levels due to abundant supply and continued weak demand. Lower benzene costs offered some initial relief in October but were insufficient to offset the overall demand slump. Seasonal slowdowns further reduced consumption in the later part of the quarter. Economic headwinds, including labor shortages and cautious buyer behavior, also contributed to the negative market conditions.
Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing excess inventory. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds. Maintaining profitability amidst low prices and high operating rates proved difficult. In nutshell, the US phenol market experienced a downturn in the final quarter of 2024, concluding with bearish market sentiment. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB Louisiana stood at USD 1092/MT.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Phenol market in the APAC region, specifically China, saw prices decline due to weakened downstream demand, an abundant supply, and seasonal influences. October saw prices decline due to weak construction and automotive demand, despite lower benzene costs. November continued the downward trend, influenced by the winter slowdown, destocking activities, and reduced operating rates by manufacturers. December saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels due to weak demand and reliance on existing inventories. Ample supply, stemming from reduced operating rates and plant maintenance, further pressured prices. While lower benzene costs in October initially offered some relief, this was insufficient to offset weak demand. Destocking activities by manufacturers added to the downward pressure. Although October saw a slight construction sector recovery, overall demand remained weak, resulting in a bearish market outlook for the quarter. Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing excess inventory. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds. China's phenol market concluded Q4 2024 with a bearish note. The quarter-ending price for Phenol CFR Qingdao stood at USD 889/MT.
Europe
Q4 2024 was marked by a bearish trend in the European Phenol market, specifically in Germany, with falling prices resulting from subdued downstream demand, sufficient supply, and seasonal factors. A bearish trend prevailed throughout the quarter. October saw prices fall due to reduced demand from construction and automotive sectors. November saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels despite declining benzene prices, due to existing stockpiles. December witnessed further price reductions due to lower benzene costs, abundant supply, and sluggish year-end demand.
Germany’s Phenol market saw weak demand from construction and polyester sectors, reflecting broader Eurozone economic uncertainty. Ample supply, stemming from readily available benzene and smooth domestic production, further pressured prices. Lower benzene costs, especially in December, exacerbated the downward trend. Existing stockpiles in November initially buffered prices from feedstock cost fluctuations, but this effect was temporary. Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing inventory levels. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds for profitability. A bearish trend characterized the European Phenol market in Q4 2024, with both prices and demand experiencing a decline. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FD Hamburg stood at USD 1080/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Phenol market experienced a decline in prices during the third quarter of 2024, with the United States witnessing the most significant changes. Several factors contributed to this downward trend.
Insufficient demand from downstream industries, including construction and automotive, played a crucial role in the price decline. This muted consumption led to an oversupply of finished Phenol products, further pushing prices down.
The energy sector also had an impact on pricing, as falling crude oil prices influenced production costs. Reduced manufacturing activity and a cautious approach from buyers amidst uncertain demand outlooks further challenged the market.Overall, the combination of weak demand, oversupply, and factors related to the energy sector contributed to the decline in Phenol prices in North America during the third quarter of 2024.
In the USA specifically, Phenol prices exhibited a decreasing trend throughout the quarter. Comparing the previous quarter in 2024, prices dropped by 2%. Notably, there was a significant -3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB Louisiana in the USA settled at USD 1080/MT, reflecting the prevailing decreasing pricing environment.
APAC
The Phenol market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a gradual decline in prices during the third quarter of 2024. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly Bisphenol A, played a significant role in the price decrease. Coupled with steady supplies of Phenol, this imbalance between supply and demand led to a cautious and stable pricing environment. The availability of sufficient Benzene to meet production needs further contributed to the decline in prices. As demand from downstream industries remained subdued, the surplus supply of Phenol created downward pressure on the market. However, Japan stood out with the most significant price changes during this period. Despite a slight 2% increase from the previous quarter in 2024, the second half of the quarter recorded a 3% decrease, indicating a fluctuating market. The latest quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB-Osaka in Japan settled at USD 900/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in pricing. The quarter was marked by a negative pricing environment, with market conditions leaning towards stability despite minor fluctuations.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Phenol market in Europe experienced a consistent decline in prices, driven by several key factors. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly the construction and automotive sectors, played a significant role in the downward pricing trend. The ample availability of finished Phenol stock further contributed to the price stability. The resumption of production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico post-Hurricane Francine has led to an increase in the supply of crude oil, which has put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Lower crude oil prices have led to lower Phenol prices. Additionally, an increase in the supply of benzene has led to lower Phenol prices. The overall trend in the market indicated a bearish sentiment, with supply being moderate and demand remaining low to moderate. In the Netherlands specifically, Phenol prices saw the most significant changes in the region. With a -10% change from the previous quarter in 2024, the market experienced a notable decline. The -13% change between the first and second half of the quarter further emphasized the downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price of Phenol FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands was settled at USD 1225/MT, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
FAQs
1. What was the average Phenol Price Index in North America during Q2 2025?
The average Phenol Price Index in North America was USD 1040/MT, FOB Louisiana, reflecting a 9% decline from Q1 2025.
2. Why did Phenol prices decrease in July 2025?
Phenol prices are forecasted to decrease in APAC and Europe in July 2025 due to weak demand, falling feedstock prices, and market normalization.
3. What is the outlook for Phenol demand in Q3 2025?
Cautious optimism prevails, with modest demand recovery expected in North America, while APAC and Europe remain subdued.
4. How did Phenol Production Cost Trends evolve during Q2 2025?
Production costs were steady overall, with early relief from lower benzene offset by rising energy and feedstock prices by June.