For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Phosphorus Pentachloride market continued to encounter challenges. The supply of Phosphorus Pentachloride in the region remained high, with sluggish consumption and heavy procurement levels from previous periods. The domestic automotive industry's demand for Phosphorus Pentachloride stayed low, reflecting market participants' cautious approach.
Major manufacturers focused on fulfilling long-term orders, resulting in lower domestic inventories due to slow replenishments. An impactful factor on the market was the growing competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, which affected the profitability of US-based EV companies, adding further challenges. Additionally, the supply chain constraint due to the Israel-Hamas war and drought in the Panama Canal impacted global trade, causing delays and increased freight charges.
Moreover, high-interest rates increased the cost of financing significant purchases, slowing down the adoption of electric vehicles globally. Despite inflation in other consumer goods, the uptake of electric vehicles remained slower than anticipated. This slower adoption contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the North American Phosphorus Pentachloride market.
APAC
Phosphorus Pentachloride pricing in the APAC region for Q1 2024 experienced a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. In general, the market has been characterized by a negative sentiment, with prices showing a consistent downward trend.
China, in particular, has witnessed the maximum price changes. The overall trends in China can be attributed to various factors, including weak consumer demand, an oversupply situation, and low consumption rates.
Additionally, the cost pressure from upstream raw materials, such as Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphorus Trichloride, has further contributed to the decrease in prices. In terms of seasonality, the first quarter of 2024 has shown a decline compared to the same quarter last year, with prices recording a decrease of 9%. Furthermore, there has been a significant decrease of 13% in prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicates a slight decrease of 1%. This suggests that the downward trend in prices has been consistent throughout the quarter. As the quarter comes to an end, the latest price for Phosphorus Pentachloride in China stood at USD 960/MT of Phosphorus Pentachloride Battery Grade Contract FOB Shandong.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in Europe encountered various obstacles that significantly affected pricing dynamics. These challenges resembled those faced in the previous quarter, with oversupply playing a pivotal role in reducing demand and subsequently lowering prices. The persistent sluggish demand from the lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector persisted, with consumers remaining cautious amid price declines.
Moreover, the dominance of the Chinese market in both Europe and the United States contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the market. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, such as BYD, continued to experience substantial sales growth, surpassing Tesla as the leading global electric carmaker. This heightened competition further impacted the profitability of European-based EV companies. Nevertheless, Germany witnessed a notable exception, with a significant surge in sales of battery electric cars, boasting a remarkable growth rate of 75.5%.
However, the intense pricing competition among European, US, and Chinese EV manufacturers persisted. Throughout this challenging period, the market faced several shutdowns, resulting in disruptions that directly influenced prices. Despite these challenges, there were some minor developments in market transactions for Phosphorus Pentachloride in Belgium during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the USA's Phosphorus Pentachloride market displayed a mixture of sentiments. In the initial two months, prices witnessed a significant decline due to a gloomy demand outlook, particularly in downstream sectors like battery manufacturing and other end-use industries, where consumer inquiries were limited. Market observers highlighted low domestic inventories stemming from weak consumer demand, and the influx of low-priced imports exacerbated the overall price decrease.
However, come December, there was a regional upturn in prices, propelled by the introduction of higher-priced imports and a general increase in demand. Furthermore, an improvement in consumer confidence in the US suggested optimism regarding future business conditions. Despite these positive indicators, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market grappled with consistently low demand.
Battery manufacturing firms, despite maintaining substantial inventories, hesitated in procurement due to the ongoing price decline. Additionally, the region faced challenges like high inflation, increased interest rates, and recessionary pressures, which had a continuous impact on businesses. Consequently, the consumer market adopted a notably cautious approach in the last month of Q4 2023.
APAC
During Q4 2023, the market sentiments for Phosphorus Pentachloride (PCl5) in the APAC region were mostly bearish due to low demand. The supply was moderate, and production costs declined slightly due to low upstream Yellow Phosphorus and feedstock Phosphorus Trichloride costs. The demand from downstream industries like dyes and pharmaceuticals was low to moderate, with inquiries slowing down. The market sentiments are anticipated to rebound in the region, with a moderate demand from downstream industries. China saw the most significant changes in prices, with a drop in prices due to low demand and high inventories of the product in the domestic market. The offered quotes for Phosphorus Pentachloride Battery Grade Contract FOB Shandong settled at USD 928/MT in the week ending on November 17th, 2023. The overall market sentiments are expected to remain bullish in the region. The quarter saw a 23% YoY change in prices and a -3% change from the previous quarter. The price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter in China was -15%, indicating a decline in prices in the latter half. The current quarter-ending price of PCl5 Battery Grade Contract FOB Shandong in China is USD 928/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the USA displayed a combination of positive and negative sentiments. In the initial two months, phosphorus pentachloride prices sharply declined due to a pessimistic demand outlook, particularly in downstream sectors like battery manufacturing and other end-use industries, where consumer inquiries were limited. Market participants observed low domestic inventories attributed to weak consumer demand, and the influx of low-priced imports exacerbated the overall drop in product prices. However, by December, there was a regional price improvement driven by the importation of higher-priced goods and a general rise in demand. Notably, increased consumer confidence in the US signaled optimism for future business conditions. Despite these positive indicators, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market continued to grapple with persistent low demand, with battery manufacturing firms maintaining significant inventories but hesitating in procurement due to declining prices. The region also faced challenges such as high inflation, elevated interest rates, and recessionary pressures, which consistently impacted businesses. Consequently, in the last month of Q4 2023, the consumer market exhibited a prevalent cautious approach.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the USA showcased mixed sentiments in the third quarter of 2023. In the first two months, the prices plummeted owing to a poor demand outlook as the consumers in the downstream Phosphorus Pentachloride and other end-use sectors had low inquiries. As per the market participants, the domestic inventories were at lower levels amid weak consumer demand, whereas the imports of low-priced goods in the region also supported the price decline of the product. Albeit in September, the prices improved in the region on the back of imports of higher-priced goods, whereas the demand conditions also improved in this period. However, the demand from the sectors in battery manufacturing was low throughout this period, and, as pointed out by the market participants, the battery manufacturing firms were maintaining high inventories of the product, whereas the procurement was lagging due to falling prices. Additionally, high inflation, high interest rates, and recessionary pressure constantly affected the businesses in the region.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2023, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated mixed sentiments. In the first month, the prices decreased due to sluggish downstream demand. Upstream Phosphorus Trichloride and phosphate rock prices were low and falling, lowering the product's manufacturing costs. According to the official NBS manufacturing PMI, which climbed to 49.3 in July from 49.0 in June, it remained below the 50-point line, indicating a dip in factory activity amid declining new orders and export sales. The downstream dyes, pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, and battery manufacturing industries demand forecast has remained bleak. However, in August and September, the prices increased as the demand conditions improved in the region. The prices of upstream phosphate rock and phosphorus trichloride markets were positive, raising the product's manufacturing costs. The downstream battery manufacturing industries' demand forecast has improved marginally, whereas the manufacturing costs were on a continuous incline. As of September 2023, the prices of Phosphorus Trichloride in China were assessed at USD 1046 per tonne.
Europe
Europe's yellow phosphorus market exhibited bearish sentiment in the third quarter of 2023. Throughout Q3, the prices plummeted on a week-on-week basis due to sluggish demand from the downstream Phosphorus Pentachloride manufacturing and other end-use industries. However, due to high inflation, higher interest rates, and fluctuating raw materials and energy prices, consumers mostly purchase on a need basis as inflationary pressure continued to loom the business sentiments in the region. The eurozone economy shrank in this quarter as per the surveys done by a few market participants that showed that demand fell at the fastest pace in the past three years amid consumer spending remaining low owing to rising borrowing costs and higher prices. Additionally, the manufacturing sector PMI data suggested a contraction in industrial activity as both outputs in the services and manufacturing sectors declined. However, procurement from battery manufacturing businesses was disappointing due to low demand, while the electric car sector showed no indications of revival. Furthermore, the global electric vehicle battery market remained subdued in Q3 due to sluggish demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
As per export data of China with USA and CANADA, the number had seen a downtrend, indicating weak demand in the State of America. Both countries had been focusing on increasing their domestic manufacturing and ensuring their cash inflows. Hence, the estimated price of Phosphorus pentachloride had also been following the bearish pattern of the upstream phosphorus trichloride market. But according to the market participants, the downtrend is bound to stop sooner. As per the Chemanalyst database, strong demand for EVs and local manufacturing had been projected to boost the market growth of phosphorus pentachloride chemical used in EV batteries. Which further pushed the domestic competition. Moreover, some global giants in the EV industry had been planning to invest in the USA, such as Capchem, had announced a plan to build a $120 million dollar electrolyte plant in southern Ohio; Soulbrain had been building a $75 dollar million electrolyte plant in Indiana to serve a nearby battery factory. After phosphorus trichloride, phosphorus pentachloride is the largest chemical market for elemental phosphorus. Furthermore, the Phosphorus pentachloride market in North America is regarded as the second most significant area for the growth of this market. North America had been dominating the Lithium Hexafluorophosphate market, followed by Europe. The need for lithium Hexafluorophosphate is dominated by countries like USA and Canada because end customers in these regions chose four-wheeled vehicles and because these nations have thriving automotive industries.
APAC
The market price of Phosphorus pentachloride had dropped slightly at the start of the second quarter of 2023 in the Asian market due to weakened support from the upstream phosphorus trichloride market and modifications in government regulations. Although, another feedstock, Chlorine prices, have been steady throughout the quarter in China. At the same time, the inflows of new orders from the downstream agricultural industries remained gloomy in the region. Hence, that resulted in a partial burnout in demand for the upstream phosphorus trichloride market, which further reduced the cost of production. The market transactions were also average as the enthusiasm of the terminal firm to enter the market was not strong, which dragged down the confidence of the industry. In June 2023, the manufacturing sector had seen a contraction indicated by the PMI number 49 in April due to a slowdown in factory activity since January amid an ongoing property decent and global recession. As per market participants, the demand had been light in that region while consistent import of the product had been maintained and export remained poor, and the supply has been steady. The supply of the product had been stable, but amid the low frequency of the downstream consumer inquiries in the battery manufacturing sector, the overall market sentiments had been weak in the time frame. Therefore, prices of phosphorus pentachloride in FOB China had been assessed at USD 1041/tonne with a quarter-on-quarter decrement of 3.16% during June 2023. Another reason had been contributed to the demand for phosphorus pentachloride was the increasing demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate used in electric devices and government attention to pollution control. However, China is the leading producer of this chemical, with numerous plants. Furthermore, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are the top countries involved in the production of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate.
Europe
Since the European economy is still in the recovery stage from recession and weakened demand amid the global economic downturn, chemical exports from Vietnam to the European continents have shown signs of slowing down in the first three and half months of the year 2023. The export turnover of basic chemicals had only reached 930 million USD, down 10.9% year-on-year, due to weak global demand. Chemical export value ranks 12th in total export items of Vietnam. With a mixed scenario, the prices of yellow phosphorus in Europe had been constant during the month of June 2023 due to the muted market sentiments. While in the Chinese market, there has been a decline in the prices further from last year due to the withdrawal of the product ban from the government. This resulted in an increase in competition domestically and hence a reduction in prices. However, Phosphorus pentachloride usage in the production of chemicals such as Lithium hexafluorophosphate and rapid expansion of the global Electric Vehicle (EV) industry has been driving demand for the global phosphorus trichloride market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the market of Phosphorus Pentachloride plunged in the North American market. In January, the market prices dropped amidst restricted market activities in the Asian region, and the regional market competition dropped amongst the downstream EV manufacturers. In February, the prices tumbled further amidst a wait-and-see consumer market attitude in the region as the Asian market participants reported a drop in electric vehicle sales and built-up inventories. Whereas in March, due to a decline in new orders and slipping export sales, the market prices of Phosphorus Pentachloride slipped down in the region. The demand outlook from the downstream dyes manufacturing and chemical synthesis industry remained weaker in the region in this period.
APAC
The Phosphorus Pentachloride prices observed a bearish pricing trend in the Chinese domestic region in the first quarter of 2023. Amidst restricted market activities due to the Lunar New Year holidays, the market remained on a bearish trajectory in January. In addition, the majority of the first term was focused on restocking practices. In February, the spot market offers dropped due to a weaker demand outlook amid looming uncertainties regarding the electric vehicle manufacturing sector, and new purchase orders were slow. In March, due to weaker cost support from the upstream Phosphorus Trichloride, the prices of the product dropped further. The demand outlook remained moderate in the region amidst sluggish demand from the downstream battery manufacturing industries. Thus, the prices of Phosphorus Pentachloride Battery Grade Contract FOB Shandong settled at USD 1075 per tonne at the end of Q1 2023.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the overall market prices of Phosphorus Pentachloride rode the downward trajectory in the Belgian domestic market. In January 2023, the offered quotes plunged, moving identically to the Asian market. In addition, the rising inflation and energy prices kept the operating rates restricted. In February, the prices dropped due to weaker demand from the dyes manufacturing and chemical synthesis industry, the Asian market players leading to restricted exports of the product, and uncertainties regarding the economy. In March, the prices dropped further due to lacking market competitiveness from the Asian markets and the wait-and-see consumer market sentiments across the globe.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Overall, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the North American market has fluctuated within range despite persisting on an upward trajectory. That has been further coupled with the reduced operations at the manufacturing facilities impacting the supply outlook in the domestic market. Although to sustain the netbacks efficiently, producers adjusted the operating rates in the domestic market. In addition, the demand has dropped in the latter half, further coupled with a blizzard storm by the quarter end, enforcing a negative outlook for Phosphorus Pentachloride by the quarter's end. In response, the FD Vancouver discussion for Phosphorus Pentachloride was settled at USD 1827 per tonne during the week ending December 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the Asia Pacific region observed a mixed attitude depending upon the subregions. The Chinese market witnessed a sharp plunge in the offers of Phosphorus Pentachloride amidst the inadequate demand to sustain the supply-demand balance in the domestic market. The higher offers of feedstock and ample inventories have affirmed a bearish outlook in the domestic market as the wait-and-see attitude in the domestic market has soared. As a ripple effect, the FOB Shandong discussions for Phosphorus pentachloride were assessed at USD 1248 per tonne during the quarter ending December 2022. Whereas the offers in the Southeast Asian market remained fluctuating as the majority volumes of the feedstock Yellow Phosphorus has diverted towards the fertilizers industry.
Europe
The Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the European markets has witnessed mixed sentiments during the fourth quarter of 2022. The market obtained a substantial gain in October, and the domestic outlook has sustained adequate recovery against the losses that occurred during the summer break. Although the gains were short-lived amidst the rising inflation and interest rates, consumer sentiments were more conservative than anticipated. At the same time, the insufficient import of Yellow Phosphorus has pressurized the supply outlook considerably. The stance of the European Union over the Russian energy supplies has levied a considerable impact on the operating cost of manufacturing. In response, several producers and downstream players adjusted the operating rates to sustain the supply-demand dynamics of Phosphorus Pentachloride in the volatile environment across the region. As a ripple effect, the FD Genoa discussions for Phosphorus Pentachoride were settled at USD 2078 per tonne in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the North American region remained slightly bullish. The demand from the EV battery manufacturing segment has proliferated as the numerous major manufacturer consistently signed multiple MoU to ensure raw material supplies to keep the value chain functioning even during the disruptions anticipated in the quarter. Although the better arbitrage with the Southeast Asia markets kept the prices of Phosphorus Pentachloride restricted from inflating further. As a ripple effect, the DDP USGC discussion for Phosphorus Pentachloride averaged USD 2622 per tonne in September.
Asia Pacific
Overall the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the Asia Pacific region witnessed persistent bearish sentiments. The offers constantly moved on a downward trajectory as the enthusiasm of the market participants has been significantly impacted due to the prevailing market dynamics, especially in the Northeast Asia region. The Chinese suppliers have curtailed their quotations by a significant margin as the cost support from the vital feedstock, Yellow Phosphorus, staggers on a low level. In addition, during the latter half of the quarter, the region observed power rationing, which significantly impacted the downstream consumption across the value chain. As a ripple effect, the FOB Shandong discussions for Yellow Phosphorus were assessed at USD 2216 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
Europe
The Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the European region witnessed a slightly bearish trend during the third quarter of 2022. The offtakes from the downstream industries were inadequate to support the offered quotations from the manufacturers or suppliers. In addition, the overall market dynamics have remained silent due to the long summer holidays across the Northwest European region. Due to the region's hovering food insecurity and rising inflation, most supplies were diverted toward the fertilizers industry. As a ripple effect, the FD Antwerp discussion for Phosphorus Pentachloride settled USD 2732 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, the North American market for Phosphorus Pentachloride observed a sturdy upward trajectory in the market sentiments and prices amidst the consistent cost support from the feedstock Yellow Phosphorus. This development is attributed to Russia's retaliatory measures to reduce the export of fertilizers against the sanctions imposed by the US and the UK with several other nations' help. In response, the demand exceeded the supply outlook, creating a global fertilizer shortage. The US is also witnessing a food crisis as the global food index soared to a historic high at the beginning of the second quarter, followed by the supply-demand gap in the domestic market. As a ripple effect, the prices of Phosphorus Pentachloride remain sturdy in the US domestic market.
Asia Pacific
The Phosphorus Pentachloride sentiments in the Chinese domestic market observe a perpetual easiness in the overall market dynamics. The resumption of the public and market movement paced up significantly. Despite the hovering uncertainties of another COVID shutdown, the market participants were active from the regional and overseas markets. In addition, the strengthening wait-and-see sentiments for the upstream Yellow Phosphorus did not provide adequate cost support, followed by the staggering demand from the downstream industries in the domestic market. Although, the concerns regarding the availability of fertilizers in the domestic market coupled with the government restriction on utilizing the fertilizer's essential raw materials at optimum levels led to increased cost support from the upstream Phosphorus Pentachloride In the Indian domestic market.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2022, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the European region remained bullish. This development is majorly attributed to the retaliatory measures by Russian authorities against the western sanctions imposed by the US and the UK with the support of several other nations. The Russian authorities decided to restrict the exports of the essential fertilizers ahead of the upcoming peak season in Europe, causing a sudden surge in demand for Phosphorus Pentachloride. The COVID restrictions in China hindered the imports of Phosphorus Pentachloride due to the port congestion.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the North American region observed a persistent gain in the first quarter of 2022. The arbitrage struggled in the first half of the quarter. The Chinese market remained closed during the Lunar New Year holidays, followed by the restricted operational rates due to Winter Olympics and the seasonal peak for Yellow Phosphorus from the fertilizers industry. The conflict in the eastern European region drove the food crisis in the US amidst the all-time high food pricing index. In response, it supported the demand outlook from the fertilizers and EV batteries industry. It strengthens the producer's will to raise the offered quotations for Phosphorus Pentachloride in the US domestic market.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2022, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the Asia Pacific region observed a significant mixed trend in the offers. This development is attributed to the consistently fluctuating and different pricing trends for Phosphorus Pentachloride throughout the region. In January, the sentiments for Phosphorus Pentachloride witnessed substantial gains ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. In addition, a large portion of the upstream has diverted towards the fertilizers industries to cope with the seasonal hype from the downstream Agricultural sector, which is further coupled with the speculation in the spot market about the resumption in exports of Phosphate based fertilizers. The spot transactions flourished gradually as the market participants actively procured adequate volumes as the domestic carriers and loaders of commodities and goods stopped responding to the new inquiries on 20th January. Therefore, the FOB Qingdao discussion for Phosphorus Pentachloride was settled at USD 5700 per tonne in March 2022.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in the eastern European region was a central impacted region. The European market is already facing the prevailing energy crisis, and the operational rates were limited as a significant portion of the natural gas was diverted towards heating purposes. In contrast, the imports from the APAC region were impacted after the Suez authorities increased the rates by 5% amidst the conflict in the eastern European region. During the same period, the market players from the EV sector were actively enquiring about Phosphorus Pentachloride from the domestic and overseas markets. In addition, several European players were reluctant to procure the Russian cargoes at the black sea, that further added the pressure on the supply outlook against the rising inquiries from the downstream market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The Phosphorus Pentachloride market in North America remained strengthened during the fourth quarter of 2021. The offers remained buoyed in the US domestic market amidst the high inquiries from the downstream Electrolyte and EV batteries end-use sector. Whereas the supplies were tight due to delayed deliveries from Southeast Asia, and due to the rising food index besides shortages of Phosphate based fertilizers numerous suppliers diverted their volumes towards the Fertilizers segment. Therefore, the downstream players witnessed a pressurized supply chain of Phosphorus Pentachloride against the strong demand from the downstream EV industries which supported the offers for Phosphorus Pentachloride in the US domestic market.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific market, the Phosphorus Pentachloride market remained buoyed despite the eased cost support from the feedstock, throughout the fourth quarter of 2021. Although, the restricted availability induced some hindrance in the Asian market after the deliveries were delayed and inquiries pile up due to high charges and limited availability of the freight vessels in the Asia Pacific region. However, the demand outlook from the downstream EV sector outstrips the supply capabilities in the region. As a ripple effect, the average December FOB Guangdong discussions for Phosphorus Pentachloride were settled at USD 1810 per tonne.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the European market for Phosphorus Pentachloride witnessed a slight relief after the freight charges dropped and run rates at the Chinese production facilities improved after the power rationing was curbed to some extent. However, the raw material market throughout Europe was drastically impacted by the ongoing energy crisis, and the drastic shortage of Phosphate based fertilizers besides the rising food pricing index forced the domestic suppliers to divert their cargoes towards the Fertilizers segment and concerned the downstream players regarding the supply glut. In response, the quotations for Phosphorus Pentachloride remained buoyed in the European market.
