For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Potassium Chloride Price Index fell by 1.07% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting import flows.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 339.33/MT delivered to Illinois.
• Potassium Chloride Spot Price stayed firm due to rail and inland freight lifting delivered costs.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast expects seasonal gains offset by ample import availability and distributor destocking.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend was pressured higher by elevated inland freight and modest natural gas-related compaction costs.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook shows restrained post-harvest purchasing but renewed early restocking ahead of spring planting.
• Seasonal inventory levels supported sellers' leverage, contributing upward pressure on the Potassium Chloride Price Index.
• Canadian rail shipments remained reliable while expected Russian cargoes and logistical shifts influenced traded availability.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in December 2025 in North America?
• Steady Canadian imports and normal harvest left availability adequate, limiting substantial downward price movement overall.
• Elevated inland freight and modest natural gas cost increases raised delivered replacement costs for distributors.
• Distributors began targeted restocking ahead of spring, supporting bids despite muted terminal and barge activity.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Potassium Chloride Price Index fell by 0.37% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest market softening.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 453.67/MT, reflecting steady tender and import cost dynamics.
• Balanced seaborne inflows maintained the Potassium Chloride Spot Price stability despite limited alternative supplier participation.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast indicates modest upside potential as freight and tender season dynamics adjust regional availability.
• Freight and import charges lifted the Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend, constraining deeper seller discounts across CFR Jakarta.
• Palm oil margins and planting schedules shaped the Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook, keeping purchasing cautious and contract-focused.
• Inventory comfort at distribution hubs supported a neutral Potassium Chloride Price Index, limiting both upside and downside momentum.
• Tender season dynamics and sanctioned-cargo absences reduced spot diversity, reinforcing pricing discipline among Indonesian importers.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Seaborne volumes from Canada and Jordan arrived on schedule, maintaining supply and preventing substantial price movements.
• Stable freight and import costs limited landed cost volatility, restricting opportunities for aggressive seller repricing.
• End-user purchases matched routine maintenance demand, reducing restocking incentives and keeping market balances broadly unchanged.
Europe
• In Germany, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 1.28% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting export enquiries regionally.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 396.67/MT, Hamburg FOB assessments.
• Export interest firmed late quarter, lifting Potassium Chloride Spot Price and supporting FOB seller confidence.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast expects gains into Q1 driven by distributor restocking and seasonal procurement.
• Elevated electricity and compliance charges raised Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend and squeezed producer margins.
• Port stocks and subdued farm buying shaped Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook, keeping immediate procurement cautious.
• German mine operating rates remained steady, with Potassium Chloride Price Index reflecting export parity signals.
• Forward bookings and distributor restocking supported firmer offers, while limited spot parcels tightened market liquidity.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Stronger export enquiries tightened regional balances, providing upward pressure on delivered values and seller confidence.
• Elevated electricity tariffs and environmental charges increased production costs, supporting higher offers despite steady output.
• Adequate port inventories limited volatile swings, yet importer restocking ahead of spring maintained upward price pressure.
MEA
• In Jordan, the Potassium Chloride Price Index fell by 2.7% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply conditions.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 386.67/MT, with spot activity.
• Potassium Chloride Spot Price tightened in December as committed cargoes reduced availability, supporting Price Index.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast indicates volatility as seasonal buying competes with ample exportable supply pressures.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend remained stable due to steady energy supply, limiting downward pressure.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook shows Asian procurement for planting seasons, prioritizing term volumes over spot.
• Inventory levels at Aqaba remained balanced, influencing Potassium Chloride Price Index and moderating seller discounts.
• Arab Potash continuity supported loadings, while higher freight costs constrained netbacks and pressured the Price Index.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in December 2025 in MEA?
• Stable Dead Sea production and term commitments limited spot availability, tightening supply for prompt shipments.
• Elevated Red Sea and regional freight costs reduced exporters' netbacks, pressuring offers despite steady output.
• Strong Asian procurement ahead of planting windows increased term offtake, translating settlements into firmer FOBs.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Potassium Chloride Price Index fell by 5.64% quarter-over-quarter, overall seasonal weakness.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 401.33/MT, delivered Illinois basis.
• Tight Gulf inventories and logistical delays limited availability, keeping the Potassium Chloride Spot Price firm.
• Near-term Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows upside risk as restocking meets steady Canadian import flows.
• Stable energy pricing preserved the Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend, limiting immediate cost-driven upward pressure.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains supportive due to increased corn acreage and early-season restocking programs.
• Lower New Orleans stocks and prioritized contracted shipments kept the Potassium Chloride Price Index elevated.
• Tariff uncertainty and shipping delays continue influencing the Potassium Chloride Price Forecast and market sentiment.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in North America?
• Reduced seasonal buying and cautious procurement lowered demand, contributing to downward pressure on Potassium Chloride.
• Improved rail logistics restored flows to Gulf terminals, easing shortages and tempering spot price recovery.
• Canadian contracted shipments remained prioritized, limiting spot availability while tariff uncertainty influenced short-term purchasing decisions.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 8.4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export constraints.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 378.33/MT, supporting restocking efforts.
• Potassium Chloride Spot Price remained firm as prompt cargoes were scarce and buyers prioritized coverage.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows near-term firmness before seasonal normalization as contracted arrivals improve availability.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend rose as freight, insurance, and logistics increased landed cost pressures.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains strong as palm oil margins encourage full-dose fertilization and restocking.
• Potassium Chloride Price Index rose amid thin port inventories and delayed shipments, restricting prompt availability.
• Limited Canada, Russia supply plus Pupuk tender dynamics sustained firm offers and constrained spot availability.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Delayed Russian and Canadian shipments constrained prompt supply, raising landed costs and tightening regional availability.
• Strong palm oil margins prompted aggressive restocking, rapidly depleting port inventories, and elevating procurement urgency.
• Elevated freight, insurance, and port congestion increased landed costs, amplifying offers and discouraging prompt allocations.
Europe
• In Germany, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 7.12% quarter-over-quarter, driven by export restocking.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 501.67/MT, reflecting tight availability.
• Potassium Chloride Spot Price firmed as limited spot volumes and port congestion reduced immediate availability.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast shows modest upside risk as restocking ahead of autumn supports bids.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend remained stable with eased gas prices and settled labor agreements.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook supported by Brazilian and French restocking despite seasonal European buying delays.
• German producers ran at high utilization while freight constraints and shipping delays tightened export allocations.
• Traders held firm offers anticipating autumn procurement, reinforcing a resilient market tone despite subdued demand.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Strong export demand from Brazil and France reduced spot availability, applying upward pressure on prices.
• Temporary rail disruptions and Hamburg port congestion constrained shipments, elevating short-term scarcity and price support.
• Eased gas and settled labor limited production cost pressures, preventing price corrections despite tighter exports
MEA
• In Jordan, the Potassium Chloride Price Index rose by 1.36% quarter-over-quarter, driven by APC expansion.
• The average Potassium Chloride price for the quarter was approximately USD 397.33/MT, FOB Aqaba, reflecting elevated freight.
• Potassium Chloride Spot Price loosened in August amid subdued spot activity, pressuring merchant offers significantly.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast indicates upside as contractual demand and forward bookings absorb seasonal stock.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend rose from higher freight and handling charges, lifting export breakevens.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook remains steady with contracted Chinese and Indian purchases offsetting weaker spot buying.
• Potassium Chloride Price Index stability reflected APC's operations, inventories at Aqaba, and tighter export allocations.
• Forward buying before planting and eased port congestion support medium-term firmness despite Red Sea disruptions.
Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Increased APC output and rising Aqaba inventories eased market tightness, pressuring spot netbacks during September.
• Reduced Chinese and Indian spot buying after contract settlement somewhat slowed export demand in September.
• Elevated Red Sea freight and port delays raised export costs, nudging offers higher in September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in China increased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, settling near USD 402/MT CFR Qingdao in June 2025.
• Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in July in China?
• April and May saw price softening due to weak NPK fertilizer demand, subdued procurement post-spring season, and the end of national reserve sales. However, in June, tighter seaborne imports, especially from Canada, Belarus, and Laos, led to a rebound, reinforced by restocking activity and reduced inventories at Qingdao and Lianyungang ports.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to trend firm to slightly bullish, depending on the pace of import recovery and Q3 application demand. Continued tight supply from major exporters and higher freight costs may push offers higher.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: While domestic production and reserves supported early-quarter stability, rising ocean freight rates and shrinking import volumes raised landed costs in June.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Q2 demand was weak early on due to the seasonal fertilizer lull and lower NPK sales, but improved modestly in June as corn and sugarcane top-dressing began. Demand was further supported by government procurement and a moderate recovery in field activity in the northeast and Guangxi regions.
• Trade Policy Impact: The absence of a finalized 2025 China potash import contract kept market participants cautious. Meanwhile, regional trade dynamics shifted, with increased competition from Southeast Asia and rerouted Russian-origin cargoes influencing supply flows and pricing.
• Fertilizer Sector: Spring planting season ended by mid-Q2, limiting potash usage. However, field trials continued to validate the agronomic value of full potash applications, and policy support for balanced NPK ratios remained intact.
North America
• Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Canada rose by 7.3% quarter-on-quarter, settling at USD 335/MT FOB Vancouver in June 2025.
• Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in North America in July 2025?
• Prices increased steadily throughout Q2 amid strong export demand from Brazil, the U.S., and India. The U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian MOP imports in early April triggered precautionary buying.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to remain firm, supported by sustained demand from Brazil and South Asia. However, any easing of U.S. trade restrictions or unexpected supply boosts from Russia or Belarus could moderate price gains.
• Production Cost Trend: Canadian production costs remained stable, with high utilization rates in Saskatchewan and manageable transportation expenses. CN Rail recovered from late-May backlogs, while energy-related input costs ticked slightly higher due to elevated natural gas-linked electricity tariffs.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Domestic demand was average post-spring planting, but offshore buying remained robust. The U.S. increased import activity ahead of tariff enforcement, and Brazil led restocking amid favorable margins.
• Trade Policy Impact: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian potash effective April 4, 2025, triggering a short-term import surge. Canada responded with a 10% duty on non-USMCA fertilizers, maintaining a tight regional trade environment.
• Fertilizer Industry: The North American fertilizer sector saw stable potash consumption despite rising input costs. Nutrien and Mosaic maintained cautious output strategies, favoring stable pricing over expansion.
Middle East & Africa (MEA)
• Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Jordan decreased by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 330/MT FOB Aqaba in June 2025.
• Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in MEA in July 2025?
• Prices initially surged in April due to firm global demand and tight supplies but corrected lower in May amid abundant availability from APC’s expanded capacity.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish, supported by resumed buying from India and China, along with continued strong demand from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: While local production costs in Jordan remained stable, freight costs rose by 3–4% in Q2, and port congestion at Aqaba added minor shipping delays. Container surcharges also increased slightly, influencing FOB netbacks.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Demand from China and India—the two largest buyers—was subdued during most of Q2 as both nations paused new spot and long-term purchases due to contract renegotiations and subsidy clarifications.
• Trade Policy Impact: No major trade barriers affected Jordanian MOP exports in Q2. However, buyers in India awaited revised subsidy allocations, and Chinese importers hesitated on new contracts due to pricing uncertainty. Jordan’s consistent shipping and competitive FOB values helped it gain market share in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand.
• Fertilizer Industry: Jordan’s fertilizer sector benefited from robust global demand and rising substitution of phosphates by potash in some regions. Domestically, fertilizer use remained minimal, but Jordan played a strategic export role amid constrained supplies from Belarus and Russia.
Europe
• Potassium Chloride (MOP) Price Index in Germany rose 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 374/MT FOB Hamburg in June 2025.
• Why did the price of Potassium Chloride change in Europe in July 2025?
• Prices steadily increased throughout Q2, supported by firm domestic and export demand, supply tightness due to EU sanctions on Belarusian potash, and improved competitiveness of European producers like K+S.
• Potassium Chloride Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are likely to remain firm, with upside risk from seasonal restocking in France and Brazil, continued supply curbs from Belarus, and possible logistical bottlenecks at European ports.
• Potassium Chloride Production Cost Trend: German production costs remained largely stable through Q2 2025. Natural gas prices eased and settled labor agreements helped keep operational expenditures flat. Inland transport costs ticked higher due to low river levels, and freight rates to key destinations like Brazil and France rose by 3–4% on tighter vessel availability.
• Potassium Chloride Demand Outlook: Domestic demand in Germany was steady, with late-spring fieldwork and balanced NPK application programs supporting MOP usage in crops like corn, sugar beet, and rapeseed. Export demand remained robust, especially from Brazil, France, and Poland, as buyers prepared for planting and side-dressing phases.
• Trade Policy Impact: The continued EU sanctions on Belarusian potash exports reinforced Europe’s dependence on internal supply, particularly from Germany. Favorable exchange rates and stable trade flows helped EU exporters maintain pricing power.
• Fertilizer Industry: European fertilizer producers operated at healthy capacity utilization, with compound fertilizer producers focusing on potash-heavy blends. Despite rising freight and financing costs, potash remained cheaper than nitrogen or phosphate alternatives.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices in North America followed an inclining trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by a combination of rising import costs, geopolitical trade uncertainties, and steady agricultural demand.
In January, prices rose amid growing speculation about a potential 25% tariff on Canadian potash, the region’s primary supply source. This anticipation led to early-season pre-buying and supply caution. February saw a continuation of this trend, as market participants responded to Nutrien’s price adjustments and stable demand from early fertilizer applications.
March brought further upward momentum due to tightening global supply conditions, seasonal planting activities, and the implementation of a 10% tariff on fertilizer imports from non-USMCA countries. With Canada supplying the bulk of imports, the market's heavy reliance on a single source created hesitancy and encouraged diversification. Imports from Russia, Israel, and Chile gained traction as potential alternatives. Despite some cost pressure on growers, strong crop yield projections and financial stability in the Midwest maintained demand.
Overall, Q1 reflected a resilient and upward-moving market, with supply uncertainties and policy changes shaping buying behavior and supporting a bullish price environment.
APAC
Potassium Chloride (MOP) in the APAC region witnessed an inclined trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by tight supply conditions and steady seasonal demand. In China, a key regional player, prices rose consistently from January to March due to constrained availability and strong import activity, despite occasional demand softness ahead of the Lunar New Year. Strategic stockpiling and record-high imports in 2024 underpinned firm market sentiment. The halt in operations at Laos’ Nongbok mine and reduced imports from Canada and Russia heightened supply concerns, while newly signed contracts failed to alleviate short-term shortages.
Manufacturing output saw gradual improvements, with major factories increasing daily production and small units preparing to restart in March. However, supply remained concentrated and liquidity low, especially at border ports, limiting the market’s flexibility. On the demand side, the approach of the spring planting season in March saw a ramp-up in compound fertilizer production, though elevated MOP prices constrained purchasing by small and mid-sized producers. Government-backed reserve tenders provided partial relief, yet the disparity between tender and spot prices fostered a cautious procurement environment, reinforcing firm pricing through the quarter.
Europe
The Potassium Chloride (MOP) market in Europe witnessed an inclining trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by shifting supply dynamics and seasonal demand. January began with a price dip as suppliers adjusted their offers to remain competitive amid subdued post-holiday demand. However, a gradual recovery began in February, marked by a slight price uptick as anticipation for the spring application season grew. By March, prices saw a notable rise supported by stronger seasonal demand and tightening global supply conditions. Key producers like Uralkali and Belaruskali implemented production cuts, which contributed to a narrower gap between granular and standard MOP, signaling constrained availability. Imports from Canada, Israel, and Jordan remained steady, helping offset the absence of Russian and Belarusian supply, but supply remained tight overall. European buyers, particularly in Germany and Poland, adjusted sourcing strategies, with some stocking up ahead of anticipated EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers. Demand from NPK producers and farmers increased steadily as spring approached, reinforcing market firmness.
Overall, Q1 2025 reflected a steadily improving market with expectations for continued strength into the next quarter amid ongoing supply limitations and seasonal demand.
MEA
Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices in the MEA region witnessed an overall incline trend during Q1 2025, largely driven by strong demand from major importing nations and stable production in Jordan. The quarter began with a slight decline in January due to contract uncertainties, despite external support from firming prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia. However, by February and March, prices rebounded steadily, supported by a revival in global demand, particularly from India and China. India’s shift toward increased NPK fertilizer production boosted potash imports, while China continued its strategic stockpiling ahead of the spring application season. Jordan played a central role in meeting this growing demand, with the Arab Potash Company achieving record-high production levels, strengthening the country’s export position. Jordan's cost-effective production, aided by abundant natural brine resources and energy efficiency investments, enhanced its competitiveness in global markets.
Though global supply remained ample, slow inventory movement in other key markets and ongoing contract negotiations added upward pressure on prices. The fertilizer industry in MEA remained buoyant, with improved crop affordability and consistent demand supporting the regional market outlook.
