For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Potassium Chloride movement remained bearish throughout quarter 1 of 2023. Initially, the feedstock potash prices rose due to the stressed availability of supplies. Then in the mid-quarter, Potash prices fell amid increased sanctions on Russia and Belarus and increased inventory levels due to plunged exports as importers declined orders, which reduced the cost support. While the consumption rates of downstream fertilizer product MOP remained sluggish in the agriculture sector during Q1, and the buyers were consciously making purchases due to high inflation and increased interest rates by Federal Reserve. At the end of the quarter, Potassium Chloride prices in the USA hovered at USD 520/MT.
Asia
The Potassium chloride price movement shifted sentiments during Q1 of 2023. Initially, the cost pressure was firm as the feedstock raw material Potash costs increased till the mid-quarter. During the mid-quarter, the price trend showcased mixed sentiments as China imported an excess quantity of the product amid increased sanctions on Belarus. However, due to no contract settlement from the regional importers, China decreased their quotations at the end of Q1 to improve product orders from importers. Simultaneously, the Potassium Carbonate market was weak amid low demand and transaction rates. Conclusively, at the end of the quarter, Potassium Chloride prices in China witnessed USD 485/MT.
Europe
During the 1st quarter of 2023, the KCl price movement showcased bearish sentiments, and prices fell consistently in the European region due to declined orders from downstream industries. Simultaneously, the feedstock Potash prices fell consistently throughout the quarter amid weak demand and increased inventory levels. Simultaneously the increased sanctions on Belarus and declined orders further plunged the feedstock prices. The inquiries were depressed from the MOP producers due to depressed offtakes from the agriculture sector amid a fall in the input costs, which reduced the overall product prices during Q1. At the end of the quarter, the Potassium Chloride prices in Germany hovered at USD 585/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the North American market during the fourth quarter of 2022, with costs ranging at USD 615/ton DEL Illinois during December, as noted by the traders and the suppliers. In recent years, the demand for potassium chloride in downstream industries like adhesives and sealants has generally decreased. Three sole reasons behind the sharp drop in prices: build-up of port stockpiles, a lackluster demand from the downstream fertilizer market, and a decline in worldwide prices, further pushing the Potassium Chloride market downwards. Transportation prices from exporting countries like Canada and Belarus to the domestic market in the USA were unstable due to declining freight rates internationally because of improved logistics globally.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride plummeted in the Asian market, with costs ranging at USD 650/ton Technical Grade CFR Qingdao in October as recorded by the ChemAnalyst Research Team during Q4 of 2022. The market sentiments in the Chinese region were impacted by the fall in detergent and fertilizer demand. As production costs declined in the local market, the price of Potassium chloride decreased in the Asian market. The demand for Potassium Chloride in the downstream sector, which was mostly driven by stringent orders, decreased marginally. The inventories were increasing with falling consumption, as reported by several market participants resulting in weak prices.
Europe
The prices of Potassium Chloride plunged during the fourth quarter of 2022 in the European market, with costs ranging at USD 715/ton Technical FOB Hamburg in November as per sourced by German region insights. A new German law mandating businesses to strengthen due diligence across their entire supply chains drew criticism from nearly all sectors of the economy that are active in international markets. The supply was high, and consumption declined in the region with the sluggish market sentiment. The European market's demand for Potassium Chloride decreased as the consumption from the fertilizer and dyestuff industries plummeted. Inventory levels were reported to be rising among the end-users and suppliers in the European market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third quarter of 2022, the prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the North American market. The desolate trade environment in the regional market caused downstream procurement to decrease. The inventories surged as consumption decreased during the middle of the quarter. Supply chain issues remained a cause of concern, as shown by the American chemistry council report. Market sentiments normalized resulted towards the second half of the quarter and culminated in stable pricing dynamics. Sluggish buying sentiments and rising inflationary pressure in the USA affected the market sentiments during the quarter. Thus, as of September 2022, Potassium Chloride prices were assessed at USD 552 per MT on a FOB basis.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the Asian market during the Q3 of 2022. Low market momentum resulted in a weak domestic Potassium Chloride price in India during August. The available supply continues to outpace the demand, which has been a fundamental factor in the current market in the region. The Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated the already limited fertilizer supply situation and has triggered the export-import restrictions that compounded shortage concerns in the regional market during the period. The prices were hovering at USD 666/ton Potassium Chloride Fertiliser Grade in China during July. The inventories of Potassium Chloride surged in the market with the traders and the suppliers during the period with increasing consumption of the product in the market.
Europe
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the European market during the third quarter of 2022. The demand for Potassium Chloride was de-escalated in the German and other European markets. This caused the rising of inventories in the market as consumption fell. Supply dynamics have been weighing on the available demand. The war between Ukraine and Russia and ongoing economic crises have caused a deep impact on the market trading and buying sentiments during the period. The pan-European prices for Potassium Chloride declined during the quarter. Falling utility costs, bullish energy, and logistics constraints further affected the Potassium Chloride market sentiments. The prices hovered at USD 561/ton Potassium Chloride Fertiliser FOB Hamburg during July.
For the Quarter Ending in June 2022
North America
North American market saw a price rise of Potassium Chloride during Q2, 2022 with costs ranging at USD 605/ton Potassium Chloride Technical DEL Illinois during May in the USA with a quarterly escalation of 12.8% as per recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. The consumers rigidly demanded the downstream sector procurement, and the overall inventory was primarily low, within the market widening its prices. With the increased demand for downstream Potassium Carbonate, the prices of upstream feedstock Muriate of Potash surged, putting cost pressure on the product within the regional market. The varying global freight charges due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine were one of the primary reasons for the prices to surge.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride surged in the Asian market during the second quarter of 2022, and prices were hovering around INR 50025.00/ton with the quarterly escalation of 2.4% for Technical Grade Ex-Ahmedabad in India during May, recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. Due to limited and tight supply, Pottasium Chloride prices continued to increase in the Chinese market. With support from the international potash fertilizer market, it is unlikely that the potassium market will fall. Overall, the downstream market for Potassium Chloride rose slightly, and the downstream demand for the product was good.
Europe
Potassium Chloride prices rose in the European market during Q2 2022, with costs ranging from USD 540/ton. Potassium Chloride Technical FOB Hamburg in Germany during May with a quarterly escalation of 27.4% as recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. Escalating imports from Poland, Brazil, Belgium, and France for the various downstream uses of the product in fertilizers and surface coating industry supported the market in an upward trend. This led to falling inventories and fewer products stockpiling with the traders and suppliers in the regional market. The demand for the product exceeded the supply, the atmosphere was hot, and the downstream purchasing was just in request.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The price of Potassium Chloride rose to USD 750/ton DEL Illinois in the USA by the end of the first quarter of 2022. Farmers were seen to be battling with fertilizer costs, while domestic demand remained high in agricultural sectors. The price change was 6.8% in Q1 as compared to Q4 of 2021 in the USA. KCl prices have gained cost support in Q1 owing to limited supply and robust demand fundamentals. Exports from Canada have also been costly to the USA, which further curtailed the margins of market participants. Demand push from the consumers has sent the prices into an upward spiral causing the prices to remain firm towards the end of Q1.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the price of Potassium Chloride was assessed at USD 315/ton FOB Hamburg and increased to 2.6% in Germany as compared to prices of Q4, 2021. Belarus being the major exporter of KCl, affected the prices as Belarusian Potash export restrictions constrained the global market sentiment and ended carve-outs on existing sanctions on Belarus's export of potash. Healthy buying sentiment from the downstream market, such as personal care, pet care, and non-pesticidal agricultural chemicals, and hampered availability of raw materials resulted in surging prices. Strong market sentiments and insufficient product availability surged the prices of Potassium Chloride in the market.
Asia Pacific
The prices of Potassium Chloride rose due to increasing imports from China and India due to robust demand. In India, the prices of raw material, Potassium, increased in the quarter ending March 2022 with its increased consumption in downstream agricultural, soap, and detergent industries. Production snags jeopardized revenue and sales among the major producers of Potassium Chloride. Global scarcity and freight pressure remained to be a significant factor behind the steep rise in prices of several commodities, including KCl. Meanwhile, soaring crude oil value also remained to be a major concern for the global key players as it puts inflationary pressure on manufacturers and compelled them to revise their spot offers to sustain margin. The price change was stable at around 0.2% in India in Q1 of 2022 compared to Q4 of 2021.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Muriate of potash prices kept on rising across global market including North America during this quarter. Farmers heard battling with fertilizer cost, while domestic demand remained high from agriculture sector. Furthermore, shipments remained halted due to lower trade activities, as most of the countries resisting trade in order to control country’s food inflation. In USA, high fertilizers cost kept on putting inflationary pressure on consumers and the prices reached multiyear high value during this quarter. Thus, after witnessing an exponential surge in MOP price heard hovering around USD 775/MT during December in USA.
Asia
Muriate of potash remained firm for Asian market too during Q4 2021, on the back of high demand and depleting inventories amid halted production activities in China. Meanwhile, production cuts imposed by China coupled with export ban on several fertilizers, remained a major reason behind these surges. Potassium Chloride price in India heard hovering at a sky-high value during December, on the back of inadequate availability in the domestic market. However, as per recent stats, MOP sales was reduced from fertilizers effectively due to its soaring cost, while farmers started looking for other alternates in order to protect their margin. In addition, healthy output of Rabi season was witnessed by farmers, which has enhanced the optimism across fertilizer sector in India. Furthermore, Indian government announced hikes in their existing subsidy to protect farmers’ welfare. Potassium Chloride price stood around USD 605.2/MT during December.
Europe
European maker had to face some uncommon events, which shook dynamics of European market during Q4 2021. The major events include steep hike in natural gas prices, which increased prices of almost all the downstream derivatives prices like ammonia and also influenced non derivatives. High fertilizers cost tensed major economies including UK, Germany and Russia, and their government were trying to safeguard consumers, as food inflation started pressurising their plates. Therefore, Russia also introduces export quota on some fertilizers to safeguard countries consumers’ goodwill. Conclusively, similar to global market, Potassium Chloride price remained sky high throughout the quarter across European region.
Offers for Potassium Chloride witnessed an upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2021 mostly throughout the North American region. The occurrence of Hurricane Ida in the US Gulf coast led to shutdowns of several manufacturing plants which resulted in a tight supply. Prices rose significantly during Q3 on the back of the strong demand from the downstream fertilizer and high production cost. Consumers feared that higher fertilizer prices will translate into higher cost of production of corn and soybeans. Potash (Dry) price in the Illionis (US) touched $600/mt in September, at its historic highs in the last few years.
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Potassium Chloride rose effectively during Q3 of 2021. Demand for Potassium Chloride remained strong in Q3 from the fertilizers segment in China. In the Indian market, MOP prices gained a significant value in August, supported by halted import activities from major exporting countries with high demand. European sanctions on Belarus due to human rights issues affected the overall supply as well as the contract prices of MOP in India. The price of MOP (92%) shot up from USD 359/MT to USD 466/MT within India from July to September. In addition, implementations of COVID restrictions across major ports of China exacerbated the overall price scenario across Asia.
The European market demonstrated an upward price trend of Potash in the 3rd quarter of 2021. The price of Potash was 10% higher in September compared to August. Increased natural gas prices in Europe altered the profitability of the fertilizer business in Q3. CF Industries considered the evaluation of whether an impairment charge w.r.t its business in the United Kingdom (U.K.) may be required. Two major fertilizer producers announced shutdowns at European fertilizer manufacturing units during Q3 due to high natural gas prices. A number of factors contributed to increased regional pricing and difficulty in material sourcing.
