For the Quarter Ending June 2025
APAC
• The Chinese Potassium Nitrate Price Index fell by 22.5% from Q1 2025 but registered a strong upward trend throughout Q2, with the quarterly average evaluated at USD 625/MT, FOB Ningbo.
• Seasonal early Q2 saw acute price declines because of agricultural seasonal slowdown, weak industrial demand (glass, pyrotechnics, molten salt energy), and adequate domestic inventories that lessened restocking pressure.
• Potassium Nitrate Manufacturing Cost Trend relaxed in April as Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices weakened, allowing producers to provide discounts to encourage offtake in the lackluster market condition.
• Despite strong Q1 fertilizer exports, cooling overseas demand in April and a redirection of volumes to the domestic market contributed to a supply overhang and intensified price competition.
• As Q2 progressed, input costs rose sharply due to MOP contracts nearing USD 346/tonne, while environmental restrictions and seasonal maintenance at chemical units constrained output, tightening supply.
• Export momentum picked up in May and June, with strong shipments to MENA and Southeast Asia reinforcing supply tightness, while government-imposed export inspections in June preserved internal stocks and limited outbound volumes.
• Despite being an off-season month, June demand remained resilient, supported by greenhouse horticulture, cash crop farming, and continued industrial consumption across food preservation and specialty chemicals.
• The Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook improved across May and June as modern fertigation practices and high-efficiency fertilizer adoption gained ground, particularly for fruit and vegetable growers.
• Logistical challenges like inland transport delays and port congestion at Shanghai and Tianjin added to domestic tightness, amplifying the impact of supply constraints and cost inflation.
• Why did the Potassium Nitrate Price change in July 2025? During early July prices are forecasted to increase due to persistent tight supply, higher MOP-based production costs, and peak agricultural application demand in summer crop cycles.
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Forecast for July 2025 remains bullish, supported by a combination of export demand, sustained feedstock cost pressure, and tight market availability in both domestic and overseas channels.
Europe
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Index in the Netherlands declined 2% from Q1 2025 but trended upward through Q2, with the quarterly average assessed at USD 882/MT, FD Rotterdam, supported by firm demand and constrained supply in May and June.
• Why did the Potassium Nitrate Price change in July 2025? During early July prices are forecasted to decrease as tariff-driven procurement normalizes, congestion eases, and early-season demand subsides, reducing pressure on domestic inventories.
• April saw a decline in the Potassium Nitrate Price Index due to post-planting seasonal demand lull, adequate inventories, and suppliers discounting to offset Rotterdam port congestion delays and maintain volumes amid weak buying activity.
• The Potassium Nitrate Production Cost Trend increased in May and June as Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices rose and EU trade policy shifts heightened sourcing risks, inflating local production and import costs.
• Tightened supply chains were driven by congestion at ECT, RWG, and Delta II terminals, limited labour availability, and rising barge and rail delays, all of which slowed deliveries and pushed prices higher mid-to-late quarter.
• The Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook strengthened in May and June due to robust demand from greenhouse horticulture, precision fertigation, and high-value crop farming, as well as industrial uses in glass and food preservation.
• Anticipation of new EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers effective July 1 triggered pre-emptive stockpiling across agriculture and industrial buyers, straining regional inventories and lifting the Potassium Nitrate Price Index.
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates a softening trend as panic buying fades, port operations stabilize, and downstream buyers’ slow activity post-stockpiling.
MEA
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Index in Jordan declined 4% from Q1 2025 but showed a firm inclining trend throughout Q2, closing with a quarterly average of USD 794/MT, FOB Aqaba, supported by rising global demand, input cost inflation, and regional trade flows.
• Why did the Potassium Nitrate Price change in July 2025? A slight increase is forecast as regional demand persists and freight pressures linger, while global buyers continue early-season procurement amid ongoing trade route volatility.
• April saw price weakness as completed procurement cycles in key export destinations like India, Spain, and Morocco softened the Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook, while stable domestic production and easing global potash supply led to surplus availability and competitive FOB pricing.
• In May, the Potassium Nitrate Price Index rebounded sharply, driven by stronger agricultural exports, firming prices of Muriate of Potash (MOP), and disciplined output by producers like KEMAPCO, lifting the Potassium Nitrate Production Cost Trend and supporting elevated offers.
• June maintained the upward trajectory as high freight rates, Red Sea-linked logistical delays at the Port of Aqaba, and strong export demand to Iraq and MENA tightened local availability, sustaining bullish pricing and regional market confidence.
• Throughout the quarter, Jordan’s role as a strategic exporter, limited local production flexibility, and global market disruptions contributed to constrained supply, reinforcing upward pricing momentum despite a subdued start.
• The Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook remained positive due to high-value horticultural applications domestically and sustained import interest from geopolitically sensitive regions seeking reliable suppliers.
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Forecast for July 2025 suggests continued firmness under supply chain disruptions, stable production costs, and consistent regional buying interest.
North America
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Index in North America followed a mixed trend in Q2 2025, initially rising due to strong agricultural demand and raw material cost inflation, before stabilizing toward the quarter’s end as logistics improved and procurement activity normalized.
• The Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook remained seasonally strong across key crop sectors, particularly corn, soybeans, fruits, and vegetables, driven by spring planting and the adoption of fertigation systems among high-value crop producers.
• Early-quarter demand was amplified by stockpiling and precautionary purchases amid geopolitical concerns, input cost volatility, and trade-related uncertainties, adding temporary upward pressure to the Price Index.
• The Potassium Nitrate Production Cost Trend fluctuated due to rising prices of Potassium Chloride and Nitric Acid, which are core raw materials in PN production, forcing producers to periodically adjust output volumes and pricing strategies.
• Stabilized logistics, better operational rates, and moderated transportation issues toward late Q2 contributed to a leveling effect on prices, countering early inflationary pressures and leading to the overall mixed quarterly movement.
• The Potassium Nitrate Price Forecast for July 2025 points to a slight increase, primarily due to rising input costs, sustained crop nutrient demand, and producer margin management in response to tighter supply.
• Why did the Potassium Nitrate Price change in July 2025? A slight increase expected to occur during early July due to higher raw material costs and seasonal agricultural demand sustaining pricing strength.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, Potassium Nitrate prices in North America followed a mixed trend, with both upward and downward movements observed throughout the quarter. Early in the year, strong demand from the agricultural sector, driven by preparations for the spring planting season, created upward pressure on prices.
Farmers and distributors replenished stocks, anticipating increased planting of crops like corn and soybeans, which fueled fertilizer demand. Additionally, ongoing supply chain disruptions, including transportation bottlenecks and raw material shortages, added to the upward price momentum. Rising energy costs and potash market tightness further exacerbated production expenses, which were reflected in higher prices. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to stabilize.
Although agricultural demand remained strong, supply-side constraints eased somewhat, and some export markets showed signs of slowing demand. The food industry, pharmaceuticals, and industrial sectors, including explosives and pyrotechnics, provided consistent downstream support but did not prevent the eventual price moderation. The overall trend for Q1 2025 was a combination of price increases in the early months, followed by stabilization as the quarter closed.
APAC
In Q1 2025, Potassium Nitrate prices in the APAC region followed a mixed trend, with an initial upward movement in January and February, followed by a decline in March. In January, prices saw an increase due to heightened agricultural demand ahead of the spring planting season, coupled with supply constraints caused by logistical challenges and intense preparation efforts to ensure fertilizer availability. The agricultural sector ramped up fertilizer procurement, and the logistics required to support this demand also added upward pressure on prices. This trend continued into February, driven by strong demand not only from agriculture but also from industrial sectors like fireworks and glass production. Supply-side pressures, including port congestion, declining imports, and rising raw material costs, further exacerbated the price increases. However, in March, prices reversed as the peak of the spring procurement season passed. Many buyers had already completed their purchases in February, leading to an oversupply in the market. With economic softening, limited new purchasing, and lower input costs, prices started to ease. Additionally, improved logistics and supply from domestic production further contributed to the price decline, resulting in a bearish market sentiment by the end of the quarter. The mixed trend reflects a balance between initial demand-driven price hikes and later supply improvements. Compared to previous quarter this quarter prices inclined by 6%.
Europe
In Q1 2025, Potassium Nitrate prices in Europe displayed a fluctuating trend, marked by significant shifts driven by both supply and demand factors. Starting with a notable decline in January, prices were pressured by weakened demand from the agricultural sector due to a seasonal slowdown and concerns over an economic slowdown. This decrease was followed by a rise in February, as pre-spring demand from agricultural and industrial sectors, particularly greenhouse horticulture, fueled price increases. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, especially with logistical challenges and rising raw material costs, contributed to the upward movement. However, in March, prices softened as demand from the agricultural sector subsided after the peak seasonal buying period, and supply conditions improved. Increased imports and the easing of logistical bottlenecks, particularly in Rotterdam, helped stabilize prices. Additionally, lower raw material costs and replenished inventories led to a more balanced market, pushing prices down. Overall, Potassium Nitrate prices in Europe showed a volatile yet downward trend by the end of Q1 2025, as it declined by 8% as compared to previous quarter.
MEA
In Q1 2025, Potassium Nitrate prices in the MEA region followed a mixed trend, with significant fluctuations driven by changing demand and supply dynamics. In January and February, prices saw an upward trajectory, largely due to heightened agricultural activity and strong export demand. Seasonal fertilizer buying, particularly from neighboring countries, pushed prices higher. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including logistical challenges and rising raw material costs, added pressure on prices during these months. Jordan’s strategic position as a fertilizer exporter and government-backed freight subsidies also bolstered export demand, further driving price increases. However, in March, prices began to ease as global export momentum slowed. Many international buyers deferred orders due to affordability concerns and better availability from other suppliers. Domestically, manufacturers faced growing inventory pressures as export demand weakened. Improved raw material access and better transportation logistics helped reduce production costs, which allowed for price corrections. The combination of slowing demand from export markets and stabilizing supply led to a downward price trend by the end of the quarter, highlighting the mixed price movement in the MEA region during Q1 2025. Compared to previous quarter this quarter prices inclined by 4%.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the price trend of potassium nitrate in North America saw a notable upward trajectory, driven by several key factors. Strong demand from the agricultural sector, particularly for fertilizers, was the primary driver of price increases as farmers sought to replenish their stocks ahead of the planting season.
The combination of favorable crop conditions and growing agricultural activity further supported the surge in demand. However, the supply side faced significant constraints, exacerbated by ongoing supply chain disruptions, such as transportation bottlenecks and shortages of essential raw materials. These supply challenges, combined with production issues at manufacturing facilities—often attributed to unplanned maintenance or operational difficulties—temporarily tightened supply, putting additional upward pressure on prices.
Additionally, rising energy costs played a critical role in boosting production expenses. The higher costs of energy used in manufacturing processes were eventually passed on to consumers, contributing further to the increase in potassium nitrate prices. Despite these challenges, the market remained resilient, with demand-driven pressures largely dictating the pricing trend throughout the quarter.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in the APAC region experienced a mixed trend, marked by an initial decline followed by recovery. In the first half of the quarter, prices fell due to a surplus in supply driven by enhanced domestic production and seasonal demand slowdown after the peak planting season. Additional factors, such as logistical disruptions, including port congestion and delays, contributed to inventory accumulation. The agricultural sector reduced fertilizer consumption, further weakening demand, while cautious purchasing by downstream buyers kept trading activity restrained. By mid-quarter, the market saw balanced supply-demand dynamics, although overall activity remained subdued.
In the second half, potassium nitrate prices recovered due to a combination of global demand tightening domestic supply and production constraints caused by rising input costs and reduced output. Export restrictions from major producers and geopolitical factors compounded supply-side challenges. Despite muted domestic agricultural demand, international demand, particularly from high-value crop sectors, supported the recovery. The market also faced broader economic uncertainties, with producers and consumers carefully managing resources. The quarter highlighted the sector's sensitivity to global supply chain dynamics, seasonal trends, and policy-driven export restrictions. In China, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 9% from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in Europe, particularly in the Netherlands, exhibited an overall decline in prices, influenced by a mix of demand and supply factors. During October, prices initially rose due to strong agricultural and industrial demand, coupled with supply constraints arising from production disruptions, rising raw material costs, and logistical challenges like port congestion at Rotterdam. The agricultural sector’s demand was bolstered by horticulture and greenhouse farming, while the industrial sector, including glassmaking and ceramics, contributed to the upward trend.
However, in November, prices began to decline as increased production capacity ensured stable supply levels. Seasonal fluctuations in agricultural demand, sufficient inventory levels, and economic conditions further weakened immediate purchasing activity. By December, the market saw a continued downward trend, driven by a seasonal slowdown in agricultural activities and reduced fertilizer purchases, as many farmers had already replenished stocks ahead of the growing season. On the supply side, expanded production capacity and competitive pressures alleviated earlier constraints, leading to a further easing of prices. This combination of softer demand and improved supply dynamics resulted in an overall price decline for potassium nitrate in Europe. However, This quarter showed a 3% incline in prices as compared to the previous quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in the MEA region, particularly in Jordan, experienced a mixed price trend, characterized by an initial decline followed by a significant incline.
In October and November, potassium nitrate prices declined due to reduced agricultural and industrial demand, especially in crop production, horticulture, and glassmaking. The stabilization of raw material costs, including potassium chloride and nitric acid, along with stable production levels, alleviated supply pressures. Additionally, improvements in logistics and lower transportation costs helped ease supply chain challenges. Seasonal slowdowns in agricultural activity, coupled with sufficient inventory levels, led to reduced demand and contributed to the overall price decline.
However, by December, prices rebounded as agricultural demand surged in anticipation of the upcoming growing season. This rise in demand was coupled with supply constraints due to maintenance shutdowns at production plants and rising input costs. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains further exacerbated the supply-tightening conditions, driving a significant increase in prices. This shift from a decline to an increase was a result of the changing dynamics between supply, demand, and logistical factors across the quarter. In Jordan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 7% from the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in North America faced a significant decline in prices, driven by a combination of demand and supply factors. Seasonal slowdowns in agricultural activity resulted in reduced demand for fertilizers, as farmers scaled back purchases amid unfavorable weather conditions. Economic uncertainty surrounding a potential slowdown further impacted the demand for Potassium Nitrate-based products, leading to cautious buying behavior among consumers.
On the supply side, increased domestic production, spurred by improved plant efficiencies and new capacities, created a surplus in the market, which exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, producers and distributors adjusted their inventories, temporarily boosting supply levels and contributing to the price decline. The market also saw an uptick in imports of Potassium Nitrate from other regions, further saturating the domestic market and lowering prices.
Overall, the market sentiment in North America remained predominantly bearish, reflecting low demand coupled with supply surpluses. Plant shutdowns exacerbated the situation, creating additional supply constraints and reinforcing the downward trend in prices throughout the quarter. The combination of these factors painted a challenging landscape for the Potassium Nitrate market in North America during Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the European region experienced a significant price uptrend, driven by strong seasonal demand from the agricultural sector as farmers prepared for planting. This surge in demand coincided with supply constraints due to production challenges, equipment failures, and port congestion, which delayed fertilizer imports and exports. Labor shortages and logistical inefficiencies at major ports further tightened supply, while geopolitical tensions and adverse weather complicated market dynamics. Amid these challenges, Russia's role in the global fertilizer market became increasingly crucial, with imports to the EU rising sharply despite ongoing geopolitical issues. Overall, the market remained bullish, reflecting the complex interplay between seasonal demand and persistent supply chain disruptions. In the Netherlands, which saw the most substantial price changes, the market exhibited a consistent upward trend. This quarter showed a 1% incline in prices as compared to the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price of Potassium Nitrate FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands stood at USD 939/MT, reflecting the overall bullish pricing trend witnessed throughout Q3 2024.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices, influenced by a combination of factors. The Potassium Nitrate market in China experienced a notable decline in prices, primarily due to reduced demand and increased supply. A seasonal slowdown in agricultural activity, coupled with economic uncertainty, led to decreased fertilizer usage among farmers. On the supply side, enhanced domestic production and higher inventory levels created a market surplus, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, logistical challenges, including congestion at the Port of Ningbo due to a significant container explosion, further complicated supply chain dynamics. Despite substantial fertilizer imports from Russia, the overall demand for Potassium Nitrate remained moderate, reflecting the impact of economic pressures such as rising unemployment and trade tensions. This combination of factors contributed to bearish market sentiment in the region as prices continued to decline. In China, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 2% from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Potassium Nitrate in China was noted at USD 765/MT FOB Shanghai, signaling a consistently decreasing pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the MEA region witnessed a significant decline in prices, with Jordan experiencing the most substantial changes. The decrease in prices can be attributed to various factors impacting the market dynamics. A seasonal slowdown in agricultural activities during the summer months led to reduced demand for fertilizers, creating an oversupply situation. Additionally, enhanced production efficiencies and inventory adjustments contributed to the market surplus, further driving prices down. The global potash market remained stable, but local demand struggles in Jordan intensified the downward price trend. Freight rates fluctuated due to congestion and geopolitical tensions, impacting transportation costs. In Jordan specifically, the pricing environment exhibited a clear negative trend throughout the quarter. Seasonal factors, economic uncertainty, and increased production capacities all played a role in the price decline. The correlation between reduced fertilizer demands post-harvest and lower production costs led to downward pressure on prices. Despite some stability in the global market, Jordan faced challenges due to subdued demand and surplus supply. In Jordan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 1% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Potassium Nitrate priced at USD 823/MT FOB Aqaba, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
FAQs
Q1. What was the overall Potassium Nitrate Price Index trend in Q2 2025?
The Price Index showed region-specific trends—rising in APAC, MEA, and Europe, while North America experienced a mixed pattern.
Q2. Why did Potassium Nitrate prices increase in July 2025 across some regions?
Prices increased due to higher raw material costs, seasonal demand peaks, and persistent supply constraints.
Q3. What influenced the Potassium Nitrate Production Cost Trend during Q2 2025?
Production costs rose mainly due to elevated prices of key inputs like Potassium Chloride and Nitric Acid.
Q4. How did the Potassium Nitrate Demand Outlook evolve in Q2 2025?
Demand strengthened across high-value agriculture, greenhouse farming, and industrial sectors despite regional seasonality.
