For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025, the U.S. Progesterone API market experienced a consistent price increase, primarily driven by strong demand from the pharmaceutical sector and persistent supply-side disruptions. In January, heightened procurement activity was observed as manufacturers rushed to secure inventory amid fears of supply chain instability. Elevated freight costs, clearance delays at the Port of Los Angeles, and rising raw material prices from China added to the pricing pressure. Early Spring Festival stocking in China further limited availability, sustaining firm prices across importing nations, including the U.S.
In February, the market faced additional inflationary pressure following the Trump administration's imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Anticipation of a further 25% tariff in April prompted aggressive buying behavior, creating short-term supply shortages. Although some logistical relief came after the Chinese Lunar New Year, overall distribution remained strained. Increased storage and warehousing expenses further escalated procurement costs, keeping prices elevated. The stable demand outlook, supported by consistent pharmaceutical sector activity and easing consumer inflation, sustained bullish market sentiment.
By the end of Q1 2025, U.S. Progesterone API prices remained on an upward path. Despite minor improvements in logistics, trade policy uncertainty, firm raw material costs, and proactive purchasing strategies continued to drive price stability with an upward bias heading into Q2 2025.
Asia Pacific
During Q1 2025, the Chinese Progesterone API market witnessed a steady upward price trend, primarily driven by strong international demand and constrained supply conditions. In January, prices increased as European and North American buyers accelerated procurement ahead of the Lunar New Year and possible trade policy changes. Meanwhile, reduced domestic output, logistical disruptions, and a 0.5% rise in CPI further elevated input costs, supporting higher price levels. Despite a contraction in China’s manufacturing activity, the pharmaceutical sector remained resilient with active trading and firm export orders.
In February, the bullish momentum continued as the extended Lunar New Year holidays led to factory shutdowns and delayed production restarts, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance. Inventory depletion before the holidays, coupled with accelerated global buying due to anticipated US tariffs, further tightened the market. Rising energy costs and logistical inefficiencies added to production expenses, allowing manufacturers to maintain favorable pricing amid strong demand. A rebound in China’s PMI to 50.2 indicated improved industrial activity, reinforcing market confidence.
By the end of Q1, although supply conditions began normalizing, Progesterone prices remained elevated due to sustained export pressure and cautious inventory strategies. Overall, the quarter reflected a strong pricing environment supported by robust global demand, supply-side constraints, and strategic market positioning by Chinese manufacturers.
Europe
The German Progesterone API market witnessed a consistent upward price trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by persistent supply constraints, firm demand, and logistical disruptions. In January, prices surged due to post-holiday restocking, elevated input costs, and strategic stockpiling in anticipation of Lunar New Year disruptions in China. Despite the appreciation of the euro, prices remained high as suppliers capitalized on favorable procurement momentum, compliance with EU GMP standards, and limited inventory availability.
February saw a further escalation in prices as China’s reduced export activity during the holiday period intensified supply shortages. Increased regional demand from neighboring European countries and high berth congestion at the Port of Hamburg delayed imports, compounding the cost burden on German pharmaceutical firms. Labor disputes and infrastructure bottlenecks further disrupted shipments, contributing to rising transportation and compliance costs across the supply chain.
Overall, during Q1 2025, the Progesterone API market in Germany remained on a bullish trajectory. Robust pharmaceutical demand, particularly for hormonal therapies, coupled with limited inventories and logistical setbacks, maintained upward price pressure. Despite signs of economic stabilization, supply-side inefficiencies and strong procurement activity from domestic and regional buyers ensured elevated prices throughout the quarter. The market outlook remained firm, with buyers actively mitigating potential shortages.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Progesterone API market saw significant price deterioration due to reduced production costs in major manufacturing hubs and weak demand, which dampened trading sentiment. U.S. buyers delayed purchases, anticipating further price declines, while high domestic inventory levels led suppliers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies. The favorable USD/CNY exchange rate made Chinese imports more cost-effective, putting additional downward pressure on domestic prices.
The market was further impacted by an influx of competitively priced Chinese exports, supported by favorable production economics and currency valuations. On the demand side, procurement patterns showed a focus on inventory optimization as buyers worked through stockpiles from prior high-volume purchases.
By December, the market remained bearish, with subdued procurement activity and weak demand across key downstream sectors. Intense price competition from Chinese imports continued to compress domestic supplier margins, maintaining downward pressure on the market. Trading volumes remained low, with participants taking a cautious approach due to uncertainty about market recovery, resulting in a pessimistic outlook for the Progesterone API sector.
Asia Pacific
The APAC Progesterone market, particularly from China, showed an overall declining pattern in Q4 2024, October saw price corrections amid weak demand and excess inventory. The demand imbalance prompted manufacturers to reduce prices. Manufacturers continued to focus adjusted their production and inventory levels in response to reduced procurement from key importing nations. The approach to year-end holidays and high existing stockpiles contributed to lower export volumes. Furthermore, reduced global purchases intensified the downward pressure. Western markets adopted a cautious, need-based purchasing strategy. Despite stable input costs and improved production efficiencies enabling competitive pricing, the market remained weak. The increasing popularity of alternative API further impacted Progesterone's market position. Throughout the quarter, manufacturers demonstrated adaptability by adjusting production schedules and managing inventory levels strategically, maintaining supply chain stability despite ongoing price adjustments and evolving market dynamics.
Europe
The German Progesterone market experienced sustained downward pressure during Q4 2024. October initiated the quarter with declining prices, influenced by lackluster demand from end-users and minimal buying activity. Market conditions were further complicated by the euro's depreciation against the dollar, which elevated import expenses, while competitive pricing from Asian suppliers shaped market behavior. The market deterioration persisted through November, driven by lower production costs in Asian markets and tepid economic activity across the Eurozone. As a significant import center, Germany's pricing patterns aligned with global trends, while traders adopted conservative positions and closely tracked economic metrics. The year's final month brought heightened challenges due to market oversaturation and diminished purchasing interest. Seasonal inventory accumulation created supply imbalances, while logistical constraints emerged from weather disruptions, reduced staffing, and congestion at major ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg, escalating transport costs. As a result, the overall quarter concluded with restricted purchasing patterns, as sustained currency weakness and high stock levels continued to impact market dynamics. These elements, coupled with seasonal disruptions, led to reduced import activity and sustained price weakness.
