For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Progesterone Price Index rose by 0.87% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply constraints and elevated logistics.
• The average Progesterone price for the quarter was approximately USD 173132.00/MT, reflecting CFR Los Angeles basis.
• Tight inventories kept the Progesterone Spot Price elevated, while the Progesterone Price Index signaled momentum.
• Rising feedstock and compliance expenses supported an upward Progesterone Production Cost Trend, pressuring supplier margins.
• The Progesterone Demand Outlook remained firm due to HRT formulation cycles and procurement by CDMOs.
• Short-term Progesterone Price Forecast projects slight gains driven by logistics pressures and precautionary buying patterns.
• Port congestion and front-loading elevated landed costs, constraining flows and amplifying Progesterone Price Index volatility.
• Distributors prioritized secure supply over price, building inventories and sustaining elevated Progesterone Price Index readings.
Why did the price of Progesterone change in September 2025 in North America?
• Supply constraints from Chinese curtailments and elevated freight raised landed costs, tightening spot availability September.
• Front-loaded procurement ahead of tariff changes compressed near-term volumes, sustaining upward pricing pressure on imports.
• Currency weakness and higher inputs increased importers' landed costs, while port congestion extended lead times.
APAC
• In China, the Progesterone Price Index rose by 0.894% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting production costs, supply constraints.
• The average Progesterone price for the quarter was approximately USD 173033/MT, citing input cost pressures.
• Progesterone Spot Price firmed as immediate shipment availability tightened due to port congestion and typhoon-related logistics disruption.
• Progesterone Production Cost Trend pointed upward with higher fermenter input prices and increased energy and solvent expenditures.
• Progesterone Demand Outlook remained robust across pharmaceutical and veterinary sectors, driven by HRT, fertility programs.
• Progesterone Price Forecast suggests sequential small uplifts, reflecting persistent cost pressures and constrained export availability.
• Progesterone Price Index supported by buying and low inventories, sustaining export quotations in overseas markets.
• Operational downtimes from environmental inspections and upgrades curtailed output at Chinese API plants, tightening supply.
Why did the price of Progesterone change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Reduced domestic output from environmental inspections and facility upgrades constrained volumes available for export and shipment.
• Higher feedstock, energy, and solvent costs increased production expenses, prompting suppliers to raise export quotations.
• Port congestion and typhoon disruptions lengthened lead times while buyers accelerated restocking, tightening immediate availability.
Europe
• In Germany, the Progesterone Price Index rose by 0.90% quarter-over-quarter, driven by supply chain pressures.
• The average Progesterone price for the quarter was approximately USD 173137.33/MT, reflecting higher freight costs.
• Progesterone Spot Price firmed as port congestion elevated landed costs and elongated delivery lead times.
• Progesterone Price Forecast indicates upward bias driven by persistent logistical constraints and steady pharmaceutical demand.
• Progesterone Production Cost Trend shows pressure from higher freight, energy and raw material input costs.
• Progesterone Demand Outlook remains firm as pharmaceuticals and veterinary sectors replenish inventories amid supply uncertainties.
• Progesterone Price Index gains were supported by export deals and cautious restocking amid easing freight.
• Major producers maintained operations with downtime, reinforcing supply tightness and supporting higher Price Index levels.
Why did the price of Progesterone change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Persistent import delays and constrained shipments reduced volumes, intensifying landed cost pressures across European markets.
• Higher freight, demurrage and energy costs elevated production and landed costs, pressuring domestic procurement prices.
• Strong pharmaceutical procurement and export deals prompted restocking, sustaining upward price momentum despite logistical easing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• In Q2 2025, Progesterone spot price index in North America experienced a mildly upward trend, averaging a modest quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 0.12%, with spot prices ending June at aroundUSD172,688/mt, reflecting firming market conditions after a soft start.
• June’s Progesterone pricing momentum was reinforced by ongoing elevated freight rates and constrained inventories, which coupled with higher input costs at Chinese manufacturing hubs, sustained an upward pricing trajectory.
• Progesterone Production cost trends during the quarter leaned higher, primarily driven by surging global energy prices and tighter regulatory compliance costs in key exporting countries, impacting landed costs and pressuring suppliers to raise export offers.
• Progesterone Demand outlook within Q2 showed a recovery, particularly in May and June, as pharmaceutical and veterinary sectors increased procurement activity to hedge against anticipated supply disruptions and rising future costs.
• April witnessed a downward pressure on Progesterone prices due to tariff-driven market uncertainty, frontloading by importers, and ample domestic inventory, which suppressed immediate demand.
• Exporters from China and India faced cost-push inflation, notably in energy and upstream raw materials, which nudged production costs up and led to moderated price adjustments in May and June.
• Buyer behavior shifted from cautious inventory management in April towards proactive restocking by mid-Q2, motivated by tighter global supplies and anticipated price escalation in Q3.
• Pharmaceutical formulations related to women’s health drove the majority of demand gains, with hormone replacement therapy and fertility treatment segments particularly active.
• Persistent logistical challenges, including port congestion and container shortages, continued to inflate landed costs and contributed to price firmness in the latter half of Q2.
APAC
• Progesterone spot price index across APAC in Q2 2025 showed a general upward trajectory with an average quarter-over-quarter increase close to 0.1%, closing June nearUSD172,500/mt, reflecting a recovery from export price declines experienced earlier in the quarter.
• June’s Progesterone price behavior in APAC was notably bullish due to rising production costs from stringent environmental compliance and input price inflation coupled with robust global demand.
• Progesterone Production cost trends were largely impacted by stricter environmental audits in China and incremental raw material scarcity, pushing manufacturing expenses higher throughout Q2.
• The Progesterone demand outlook during the quarter improved substantially, especially from Southeast Asian, Latin American, and Indian pharmaceutical formulators replenishing inventories ahead of Q3 and anticipating regulatory shifts.
• Early Q2 was marked by oversupply and price softness driven by U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and subdued international orders, creating inventory overhang issues.
• Mid-Q2 saw supply disruptions from temporary shutdowns in key provinces like Zhejiang and Jiangsu, leading to constrained availability and higher export prices.
• Logistics bottlenecks, including port congestion and delayed shipments from major ports like Ningbo and Shanghai, further exacerbated supply tightness and contributed to spot price increases in June.
• International buyers showed strong interest, particularly in hormone replacement therapies and reproductive health formulations, supporting firming price trends.
• Exporters adopted cautious inventory strategies, limiting aggressive discounting due to increased cost pressures and global market uncertainties, thereby reinforcing the bullish market tone.
Europe
• The European Progesterone spot price index in Q2 2025 was upward, with an average quarter-over-quarter price growth around 0.14%, and closing prices near €172,610/mt in June, underpinned by tight supply and firming downstream demand.
• June’s Progesterone pricing strength was sustained amid rising input costs, notably the spike in diosgenin feedstock prices, coupled with ongoing logistic disruptions impacting inbound shipments.
• Progesterone Production cost trends were characterized by challenges including unplanned shutdowns in India, stricter environmental audits, and rising freight rates from Asia to Europe, cumulatively increasing manufacturing and landed costs.
• Progesterone Demand outlook in Europe improved steadily through Q2, supported by pharmaceutical buyers replenishing depleted inventories and accelerating procurement to mitigate supply chain uncertainties.
• April saw price softening due to oversupply from Asian manufacturers ramping up output and strategic stockpiling by cautious buyers awaiting further price developments.
• May marked a reversal with supply tightening from key exporters and increased upstream costs, prompting a rebound in prices supported by improved procurement activity.
• Logistical complications, including congestion in major ports like Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp, labor shortages, and low Rhine water levels, contributed to extended lead times and higher freight costs in June.
• Currency fluctuations, with a moderately stronger euro versus the U.S. dollar, slightly mitigated import cost pressures and supported buyer confidence in procuring supplies.
• Downstream sectors such as pharmaceuticals and healthcare showed resilience and actively adapted procurement strategies, maintaining sustained purchasing momentum that underpinned the progressively bullish market environment for Progesterone in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025, the U.S. Progesterone API market experienced a consistent price increase, primarily driven by strong demand from the pharmaceutical sector and persistent supply-side disruptions. In January, heightened procurement activity was observed as manufacturers rushed to secure inventory amid fears of supply chain instability. Elevated freight costs, clearance delays at the Port of Los Angeles, and rising raw material prices from China added to the pricing pressure. Early Spring Festival stocking in China further limited availability, sustaining firm prices across importing nations, including the U.S.
In February, the market faced additional inflationary pressure following the Trump administration's imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Anticipation of a further 25% tariff in April prompted aggressive buying behavior, creating short-term supply shortages. Although some logistical relief came after the Chinese Lunar New Year, overall distribution remained strained. Increased storage and warehousing expenses further escalated procurement costs, keeping prices elevated. The stable demand outlook, supported by consistent pharmaceutical sector activity and easing consumer inflation, sustained bullish market sentiment.
By the end of Q1 2025, U.S. Progesterone API prices remained on an upward path. Despite minor improvements in logistics, trade policy uncertainty, firm raw material costs, and proactive purchasing strategies continued to drive price stability with an upward bias heading into Q2 2025.
Asia Pacific
During Q1 2025, the Chinese Progesterone API market witnessed a steady upward price trend, primarily driven by strong international demand and constrained supply conditions. In January, prices increased as European and North American buyers accelerated procurement ahead of the Lunar New Year and possible trade policy changes. Meanwhile, reduced domestic output, logistical disruptions, and a 0.5% rise in CPI further elevated input costs, supporting higher price levels. Despite a contraction in China’s manufacturing activity, the pharmaceutical sector remained resilient with active trading and firm export orders.
In February, the bullish momentum continued as the extended Lunar New Year holidays led to factory shutdowns and delayed production restarts, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance. Inventory depletion before the holidays, coupled with accelerated global buying due to anticipated US tariffs, further tightened the market. Rising energy costs and logistical inefficiencies added to production expenses, allowing manufacturers to maintain favorable pricing amid strong demand. A rebound in China’s PMI to 50.2 indicated improved industrial activity, reinforcing market confidence.
By the end of Q1, although supply conditions began normalizing, Progesterone prices remained elevated due to sustained export pressure and cautious inventory strategies. Overall, the quarter reflected a strong pricing environment supported by robust global demand, supply-side constraints, and strategic market positioning by Chinese manufacturers.
Europe
The German Progesterone API market witnessed a consistent upward price trend throughout Q1 2025, driven by persistent supply constraints, firm demand, and logistical disruptions. In January, prices surged due to post-holiday restocking, elevated input costs, and strategic stockpiling in anticipation of Lunar New Year disruptions in China. Despite the appreciation of the euro, prices remained high as suppliers capitalized on favorable procurement momentum, compliance with EU GMP standards, and limited inventory availability.
February saw a further escalation in prices as China’s reduced export activity during the holiday period intensified supply shortages. Increased regional demand from neighboring European countries and high berth congestion at the Port of Hamburg delayed imports, compounding the cost burden on German pharmaceutical firms. Labor disputes and infrastructure bottlenecks further disrupted shipments, contributing to rising transportation and compliance costs across the supply chain.
Overall, during Q1 2025, the Progesterone API market in Germany remained on a bullish trajectory. Robust pharmaceutical demand, particularly for hormonal therapies, coupled with limited inventories and logistical setbacks, maintained upward price pressure. Despite signs of economic stabilization, supply-side inefficiencies and strong procurement activity from domestic and regional buyers ensured elevated prices throughout the quarter. The market outlook remained firm, with buyers actively mitigating potential shortages.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Progesterone API market saw significant price deterioration due to reduced production costs in major manufacturing hubs and weak demand, which dampened trading sentiment. U.S. buyers delayed purchases, anticipating further price declines, while high domestic inventory levels led suppliers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies. The favorable USD/CNY exchange rate made Chinese imports more cost-effective, putting additional downward pressure on domestic prices.
The market was further impacted by an influx of competitively priced Chinese exports, supported by favorable production economics and currency valuations. On the demand side, procurement patterns showed a focus on inventory optimization as buyers worked through stockpiles from prior high-volume purchases.
By December, the market remained bearish, with subdued procurement activity and weak demand across key downstream sectors. Intense price competition from Chinese imports continued to compress domestic supplier margins, maintaining downward pressure on the market. Trading volumes remained low, with participants taking a cautious approach due to uncertainty about market recovery, resulting in a pessimistic outlook for the Progesterone API sector.
Asia Pacific
The APAC Progesterone market, particularly from China, showed an overall declining pattern in Q4 2024, October saw price corrections amid weak demand and excess inventory. The demand imbalance prompted manufacturers to reduce prices. Manufacturers continued to focus adjusted their production and inventory levels in response to reduced procurement from key importing nations. The approach to year-end holidays and high existing stockpiles contributed to lower export volumes. Furthermore, reduced global purchases intensified the downward pressure. Western markets adopted a cautious, need-based purchasing strategy. Despite stable input costs and improved production efficiencies enabling competitive pricing, the market remained weak. The increasing popularity of alternative API further impacted Progesterone's market position. Throughout the quarter, manufacturers demonstrated adaptability by adjusting production schedules and managing inventory levels strategically, maintaining supply chain stability despite ongoing price adjustments and evolving market dynamics.
Europe
The German Progesterone market experienced sustained downward pressure during Q4 2024. October initiated the quarter with declining prices, influenced by lackluster demand from end-users and minimal buying activity. Market conditions were further complicated by the euro's depreciation against the dollar, which elevated import expenses, while competitive pricing from Asian suppliers shaped market behavior. The market deterioration persisted through November, driven by lower production costs in Asian markets and tepid economic activity across the Eurozone. As a significant import center, Germany's pricing patterns aligned with global trends, while traders adopted conservative positions and closely tracked economic metrics. The year's final month brought heightened challenges due to market oversaturation and diminished purchasing interest. Seasonal inventory accumulation created supply imbalances, while logistical constraints emerged from weather disruptions, reduced staffing, and congestion at major ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg, escalating transport costs. As a result, the overall quarter concluded with restricted purchasing patterns, as sustained currency weakness and high stock levels continued to impact market dynamics. These elements, coupled with seasonal disruptions, led to reduced import activity and sustained price weakness.
