For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Raffinate market witnessed a progressive decline in prices, reflecting a bearish trend throughout the quarter. January began with a slight price rise, driven by tight supply amid steady MTBE demand. However, by February, prices dropped nearly 14% due to sluggish downstream activity, ample inventories, and weak crude oil values. This downward trend intensified in March with a further 15% decline, driven by weak gasoline blending demand, high inventories, and reduced refinery throughput. Despite some late-March recovery due to seasonal fuel demand, overall Q1 pricing remained under pressure compared to Q4 2024, which had ended on a more stabilized note supported by firm MTBE demand.
Supply tightened in January due to reduced refinery throughput but normalized by February with stable Gulf Coast operations. March saw lower refinery utilization and permanent closures, further restricting production. Nevertheless, high inventory levels prevented major supply shocks throughout the quarter.
Demand was steady in January, weakened in February, and remained subdued in March. Automotive fuel demand and MTBE blending were notably soft, contributing to a consistently bearish market sentiment across Q1 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Chinese Raffinate market followed a bearish trajectory, with prices gradually softening across the quarter. January saw a brief price uptick supported by seasonal restocking and moderate post-holiday gasoline blending demand. However, February and March reversed this trend, driven by weakening downstream MTBE consumption, subdued crude oil support, and high inventory levels. Prices fell by 6.16% in March, marking the steepest decline of the quarter. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices were stabilized by tighter supply and rising naphtha costs, Q1 2025 was dominated by weak fundamentals and soft downstream sentiment.
Refiners adjusted operations in January to meet restocking demand, but February and March saw stable to ample supply. Minor MTBE plant turnarounds did little to alter the oversupplied market. Feedstock naphtha and fuel oil prices declined, reducing cost support for Raffinate and pressuring margins. Demand weakened steadily through the quarter due to lackluster MTBE output and reduced gasoline blending activity. Buyers remained cautious, engaging only in limited procurement. Export opportunities also diminished, especially from India, reinforcing a bearish tone for China’s Raffinate market during Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German raffinate market showed a predominantly bearish trend, shaped by weak downstream demand and cost-side pressures. January began with modest stability, supported by restocking from the MTBE and SBA sectors and firm fuel blending activity. However, as the quarter progressed, demand headwinds intensified. In February, a drop in naphtha prices and limited refinery output due to maintenance activity suppressed raffinate production costs but failed to drive market enthusiasm amid sluggish automotive fuel consumption. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and softer export activity weakened overall sentiment.
March brought further price declines as fuel blending demand remained underwhelming and inventories built up across several regions. The shift toward alternative fuels and EV adoption continued to curb gasoline-based product demand. Despite ongoing regulatory constraints and margin compression, German refiners maintained consistent production through technological efficiencies and streamlined operations. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 saw diminished seasonal support and a more subdued downstream environment, although signs of gradual recovery are expected in the coming months as refinery maintenance concludes and spring demand picks up.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the U.S. raffinate market showed varying trends influenced by seasonal factors, feedstock price fluctuations, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. October saw price declines due to oversupply and reduced inventory costs, while lower feedstock naphtha prices further lowered production expenses.
Seasonal demand from the fuel sector increased, driven by the agricultural harvest and winter heating needs, with diesel-powered machinery and residential heating boosting consumption. In November, prices continued to decline as refinery utilization rates dropped and key refinery closures tightened supply. Economic uncertainties and the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels dampened demand in gasoline and petrochemical sectors, contributing to subdued downstream activity and a bearish market sentiment.
By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives like methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and secondary butyl alcohol (SBA), essential for fuel additives and industrial applications. Despite challenges from environmental regulations, fluctuating feedstock costs, and supply chain disruptions, advanced refining technologies sustained production. The U.S. raffinate market remains resilient, with steady demand growth expected into 2025.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Chinese raffinate market exhibited fluctuating trends driven by feedstock prices, demand shifts, and economic factors. In October, prices rose due to higher naphtha costs and limited supply despite weak downstream market activity and subdued demand from end-users. The gasoline sector faced additional challenges as raffinate demand weakened due to volatile crude oil prices and a softer MTBE market. By November, inventories remained sufficient, and production aligned with moderate demand, particularly in the MTBE and MEK sectors, as crude oil prices stabilized. In December, tighter supply conditions and higher naphtha prices supported slight price increases, while the petrochemical sector continued to drive demand for raffinate-derived products like isobutene and synthetic rubber. However, refinery throughput declined by 1.6%, reflecting stagnant fuel demand, the growing shift to electric vehicles (EVs), and the adoption of alternative fuels like LNG. Challenges such as China’s property crisis and slower economic growth tempered recovery, but stable production dynamics and the resilience of the petrochemical sector ensured steady demand for raffinate, albeit with moderated growth.
Europe
The German raffinate market in Q4 2024 experienced mixed trends influenced by feedstock price fluctuations, seasonal demand, and economic conditions. In October, prices declined due to lower naphtha costs and oversupply, despite increased demand from the fuel sector during the agricultural harvest and winter heating seasons. Downstream sectors, including MTBE and SBA, showed steady inquiries, but geopolitical tensions and subdued trade activity limited market momentum. In November, bearish pressures grew as refinery utilization rates fell and planned maintenance curtailed raffinate production. Demand softened further as the transition to alternative fuels, like natural gas, reduced gasoline and diesel consumption. High energy costs and weaker petrochemical activity exacerbated market challenges. By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives, particularly MTBE and SBA, alongside increased seasonal heating oil purchases. Easing cracker maintenance and restocking activities in the petrochemical sector provided additional support. Despite regulatory challenges and supply chain disruptions, Germany’s refining sector remained resilient, leveraging technological advancements to sustain production. The outlook for 2025 points to gradual growth driven by stable production and improved downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Raffinate market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by a combination of factors. The market saw a surge in demand from various downstream industries, including solvents and coatings, leading to a tightening of supply and pushing prices upwards.
Additionally, stable production levels at refineries and petrochemical plants contributed to the positive pricing environment. The quarter was marked by favorable economic conditions, supporting the Raffinate market and creating a bullish trend. In the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market dynamics were influenced by a steady increase in demand from key industries and stable supply levels.
Seasonal fluctuations and production priorities of refineries, focusing on gasoline and diesel, led to higher yields of Raffinate and subsequently impacted pricing. Noteworthy is the resilience of the market despite minor logistical disruptions and no reported plant shutdowns during the quarter. The overall trend in Q3 2024 showcased a positive pricing environment, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Raffinate DDP Texas in the USA stood at USD 746/MT, reflecting a robust and strengthening market for the product.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable uptrend in Raffinate prices, driven by several key factors. Supply constraints due to maintenance and construction activities at various facilities led to a moderate decrease in availability, boosting prices. Additionally, the seasonal shift towards winter-grade gasoline production resulted in a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, further pushing prices upwards. The overall market sentiment in the region was positive, with increased demand from industries like paints, coatings, and cleaning solvents contributing to the price surge. China, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a 4% increase from the first to the second half of the quarter. The correlation between seasonal demand fluctuations and price adjustments was evident, reflecting a stable yet bullish market environment. Despite a +4% change from the previous quarter, the quarter-ending price in China stood at USD 700/MT of Raffinate FOB-Qingdao, signaling a strong finish to the period. No significant disruptions or plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter, further supporting the positive pricing trend observed in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Raffinate market in Europe experienced a notable decline in prices, with the Netherlands being the most impacted. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Firstly, oversupply in the market due to increased production and reduced demand from the petrochemical sector led to pricing pressures. Additionally, weakening global economic conditions and decreased refining margins further pushed prices downwards. The seasonal shift towards lower energy demand also played a role in the declining prices. Comparing to the same quarter last year, prices saw a significant decrease, indicating a prolonged downward trajectory. Furthermore, the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 showed a decline, reflecting the ongoing negative trend. The second half of the quarter saw a more pronounced decrease compared to the first half, emphasizing the intensification of price declines. Seasonal fluctuations and production priorities of refineries, focusing on gasoline and diesel, led to higher yields of Raffinate and subsequently impacted pricing.
Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Raffinate prices in the Netherlands, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment characterized by consistent decreases throughout the period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Raffinate market in North America experienced a sustained decline in prices, driven by several factors. Across the region, a combination of sufficient inventories, tepid downstream demand, and subdued purchasing enthusiasm from terminal markets contributed to the weakened pricing environment. The overall bearish sentiment was compounded by cyclical market dynamics, including a typical end-of-quarter procurement slowdown and increased inventory levels as manufacturers aimed to manage their stock efficiently.
Focusing on the USA, which witnessed the most pronounced price changes, the market saw a consistent downward trend. This was primarily due to weak demand from downstream industries such as MTBE and MEK, as well as ample crude oil stocks that exerted continuous downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the USA's natural gas prices spiked, elevating production costs and further straining the market. The sentiment was exacerbated by sporadic plant shutdowns, although no major disruptions were reported for this period.
Throughout the quarter, seasonality played a role, with typical mid-year slumps in demand and increased restocking activity leading to significant price fluctuations. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 708/MT of Raffinate DDP Texas.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a pronounced downtrend in the Raffinate market within the APAC region, significantly influenced by an array of factors that exerted downward pressure on prices. The quarter was marked by a confluence of sluggish downstream demand, elevated inventory levels, and persistent supply imbalances. The consumption at terminal markets remained tepid, and the lack of active downstream purchasing further compounded the bearish sentiment. Enterprise shipments were constrained, leading manufacturers to continually reduce factory quotations to stimulate market participation. Despite these efforts, the subdued consumption and inadequate demand support resulted in a weakening of Raffinate prices.
Focusing on China, which experienced the most significant price changes, the overall trend demonstrated a consistent decline. Seasonal fluctuations played a role, with reduced working hours during the heatwave affecting production volumes and leading to lower demand for raw materials. The weak international crude oil trend and poor downstream gasoline demand exacerbated the situation, with operators resisting high-priced gasoline raw materials. High operating rates in Raffinate production facilities contributed to excessive supply, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.
Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 670/MT FOB-Qingdao. This consistent decrease reflects a negative pricing environment, driven by multiple adverse factors, including subdued downstream inquiries and high inventory levels. The overall sentiment in the Raffinate market during this quarter was decidedly bearish, with the market grappling with significant headwinds and no major plant shutdowns reported to provide any relief from the oversupply situation.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Raffinate market experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several critical factors, creating a generally negative pricing environment. The primary factor was the significant drop in upstream crude oil prices, which directly impacted Raffinate's valuation. This decline in crude oil prices was driven by a combination of oversupply and weakening demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, exacerbated the situation by disrupting supply chains, while economic uncertainties in major markets, including Europe and the US, restrained industrial demand. Furthermore, increased Raffinate supply from regions like the US Gulf Coast and the Arab Gulf, driven by arbitrage opportunities, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. High inventory levels, subdued purchasing activity, and cautious market sentiment due to inflationary pressures and economic sluggishness also played significant roles.
Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most substantial price changes, the overall trend in Q2 was characterized by a marked decline. The seasonal demand uptick typically expected during this period failed to materialize, largely due to weak downstream demand from sectors like petrochemicals. The correlation between declining crude oil prices and Raffinate was evident, reflecting the interconnectedness of these markets. Compared to the same quarter last year, Raffinate prices in Germany decreased by an impressive 15%. This stark contrast highlights the negative shift in market sentiment and economic conditions. In comparison to the previous quarter in 2024, however, the price change was recorded at 0%, indicating a stabilizing albeit low market environment. Within Q2 2024 itself, the first half of the quarter saw prices decline by 3% compared to the second half, evidencing a continual negative trend.
Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for Raffinate in Europe, and more specifically in Germany, was decisively negative, driven by a convergence of oversupply, weak demand, and economic uncertainties, leading to significant price reductions.
