For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Raffinate Prices in North America
- In USA, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 20.9% quarter-over-quarter, driven by naphtha feedstock tightness.
- The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 592/MT, reflecting seasonal buyer activity.
- Import discounts and arrivals pressured the Raffinate Spot Price, easing Gulf Coast delivered offer levels.
- Falling Naphtha FOB shifted the Raffinate Production Cost Trend lower, expanding extraction margins for exporters.
- MTBE blending restocking and tyre sector activity supported the Raffinate Demand Outlook, maintaining firm purchasing.
- The Raffinate Price Forecast signals correction as refinery normalisation and import parity reduce delivered values.
- Inventory builds at Houston reduced tightness, weakening the Raffinate Price Index and improving buyer negotiations.
- Regular Canada and South Korea shipments with stable logistics ensured balanced imports, avoiding Gulf shortages.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in June 2026 in North America?
- Falling Naphtha FOB prices reduced extraction costs, prompting lower imported raffinate offers into Gulf Coast.
- Absence of origin outages increased cargo availability, allowing distributors to rebuild inventories and apply discounts.
- Seasonal gasoline blending demand remained moderate, limiting incremental MTBE-related raffinate pull and reducing prompt buying.
Raffinate Prices in APAC
- In China, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 16.5% quarter-over-quarter, tightened supply and stronger exports.
- The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 956.67/MT, based on Qingdao feedback.
- Raffinate Spot Price weakened as higher cracker runs and softer regional enquiries pressured FOB Qingdao.
- Raffinate Production Cost Trend eased slightly as hydrogenated naphtha softened, narrowing extraction margins for extractors.
- Raffinate Demand Outlook deteriorated with subdued MTBE blending and weaker domestic gasoline consumption reducing offtake.
- Raffinate Price Index softened as coastal inventories increased and export enquiries declined, prompting seller discounts.
- Raffinate Price Forecast anticipates modest near-term softening as seasonal lull and normalized runs ease tightness.
- Environmental inspections and refined-fuel quota adjustments remained key drivers impacting coastal cracker availability and exports.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in June 2026 in APAC?
- Higher cracker and PDH runs expanded co-produced raffinate volumes, creating oversupply and downward price pressure.
- Relaxed refined-fuel export restrictions increased gasoline shipments and raffinate co-production, intensifying export competition and discounts.
- Reduced MTBE blending demand and lower domestic gasoline consumption trimmed offtake, forcing sellers into discounting.
India
- In India, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 13.28% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tighter domestic availability and feedstock cost inflation.
- Raffinate Spot Price softened in June as declining naphtha costs and steady imports pressured splitter netbacks and offers.
Raffinate Prices in Europe
- In Europe, the Raffinate Price Index declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting comfortable supply conditions and subdued downstream demand.
- The Raffinate Price Index remained under pressure as steady refinery operating rates and sufficient regional availability outweighed buying interest.
- Raffinate Spot Price softened during June as buyers adopted cautious procurement strategies while suppliers maintained adequate inventories.
- Raffinate Price Forecast indicates a stable-to-soft outlook in the near term, supported by balanced supply but limited recovery in downstream consumption.
- Raffinate Production Cost Trend remained relatively stable as feedstock naphtha and crude oil movements showed only moderate fluctuations during the quarter.
- Raffinate Demand Outlook remained moderate, with demand from petrochemical, polymer, synthetic rubber, and fuel blending sectors showing cautious purchasing activity.
- The Price Index reflected sufficient regional product availability, stable refinery output, and uninterrupted logistics throughout the quarter.
- Comfortable inventories across storage terminals and consistent refinery operations limited supply disruptions and prevented significant market volatility.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in June 2026 in Europe?
- Adequate refinery production and sufficient inventories increased product availability across the regional market.
- Stable feedstock costs limited upward pressure on the Raffinate Production Cost Trend, reducing the likelihood of higher supplier offers.
- Weak downstream demand from petrochemical and synthetic rubber manufacturers resulted in cautious spot purchasing and softer market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Raffinate Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 7.62% quarter-over-quarter, driven by supply tightness.
- The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 489.67/MT, reflecting import extraction pressures.
- Tight imports and constrained allocations kept the Raffinate Spot Price elevated across Gulf Coast points.
- Elevated Naphtha costs drove the Raffinate Production Cost Trend higher, pressuring exporters' landed DDP offers.
- Healthy MTBE blending and tire-rubber demand supported consumption, informing a constructive Raffinate Demand Outlook ahead.
- Thin terminal stocks and forward buying reinforced the Raffinate Price Index strength, limiting downside risk.
- Scheduled Gulf Coast turnarounds and diverted offshore extraction intensified import reliance, tightening Raffinate Spot Price.
- Raffinate Price Forecast suggests moderation if imports recover and refinery throughput normalizes, though volatility persists.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in March 2026 in North America?
- Naphtha FOB Texas surged, boosting replacement costs and enabling exporters to raise DDP offers promptly.
- Cracker maintenance and reduced Canadian export allocations lowered domestic supply, forcing reliance on pricier imports.
- Strong MTBE blending and rubber offtake prevented destocking, allowing sellers to pass feedstock cost increases.
Raffinate Prices in APAC
- In China, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 15.80% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher hydrogenated naphtha and extraction slowdowns.
- The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 821.00/MT, based on Qingdao FOB assessments.
- Raffinate Spot Price strengthened as domestic MTBE demand tightened and export nominations reduced prompt Qingdao availability.
- Raffinate Price Forecast points to near-term firmness given persistent feedstock inflation and constrained coastal inventories.
- Raffinate Production Cost Trend shows rising cash costs after hydrogenated naphtha surged, pressuring extraction margins significantly.
- Raffinate Demand Outlook remains supportive with MTBE blending and Southeast Asian restocking sustaining prompt offtake.
- Raffinate Price Index gains were amplified by voluntary extraction slowdowns and selective export prioritization by Shandong producers.
- Coastal inventories fell to three-week lows and port congestion shifted emphasis to physical availability constraints.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Higher hydrogenated naphtha costs increased production cash costs, prompting sellers to raise FOB offers strategically.
- Environmental inspections reduced C4 extraction operating days, removing prompt raffinate barrels from available supply volumes.
- Robust MTBE blending and Southeast Asian restocking intensified demand, enabling producers to prioritize export nominations.
Raffinate Prices in Europe
- In Europe, the Raffinate Price Index increased quarter-over-quarter, supported by tighter regional supply and stronger downstream petrochemical demand.
- Raffinate Spot Price strengthened as butadiene extraction demand improved and refinery maintenance planning reduced prompt merchant availability.
- Raffinate Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness, supported by seasonal industrial recovery and controlled supply conditions.
- Raffinate Production Cost Trend moved upward as firmer crude oil and naphtha values raised feedstock and operating costs for refiners.
- Raffinate Demand Outlook remained constructive with stronger offtake from MTBE producers, gasoline blenders, and synthetic rubber manufacturers.
- The Raffinate Price Index was further supported by cautious inventory management among sellers and limited spot cargo availability.
- Regional storage levels tightened during the quarter, while logistics planning ahead of spring maintenance constrained immediate supply.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Higher crude oil and naphtha costs increased production expenses, prompting suppliers to maintain firmer market offers.
- Stronger buying interest from butadiene extraction units, MTBE producers, and gasoline blending sectors lifted prompt demand.
- Seasonal restocking ahead of the spring manufacturing cycle supported procurement activity and reduced downward pricing pressure.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Raffinate Price Index fell by 5.54% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker feedstock and demand.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 455.00/MT, reflecting subdued domestic demand.
• Commentary showed Raffinate Spot Price softness as Asian-origin imports and reduced freight pressured regional values.
• Near-term Raffinate Price Forecast signals modest volatility with potential recoveries tied to MTBE blending seasonally.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend weakened as naphtha declines and energy costs further lowered extraction economics.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook remains subdued amid manufacturing slowdown, restrained MTBE blending and elevated inventory levels.
• Raffinate Price Index movements were moderated by comfortable inventories and export readiness to Latin America.
• Stable Gulf Coast refinery run-rates and dwell times limited shortages, capping upside in delivered Raffinate.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in December 2025 in North America?
• Lower naphtha and feedstock prices reduced production costs, enabling sellers to accept lower Raffinate offers.
• Muted domestic demand and weaker MTBE blending limited offtake, increasing inventories and weakening Price Index.
• Smoother arrivals from Asia and Canada and lower freight reduced landed costs, pressuring domestic pricing.
APAC
• In China, the Raffinate Price Index fell by 2.12% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker feedstock and ample supply.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 709.00/MT, reflecting reported FOB Qingdao levels.
• Raffinate Spot Price weakened amid elevated inventories and subdued MTBE demand, pressuring exporters' willingness to firm offers.
• Raffinate Price Forecast indicates modest upside risk if naphtha recovers and port inventories draw before Lunar New Year.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend showed slight inflation as naphtha ticked higher, tightening marginal economics for exporters.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook remains mixed; domestic MTBE blending recovered while MEK and solvent markets stayed lethargic.
• Raffinate Price Index firmed in December due to tighter supply pools and stronger Southeast Asian export enquiries.
• High coastal inventories and smooth port operations limited upside, even as some Shandong crackers reduced runs temporarily.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Shandong environmental audits reduced cracker run rates, trimming by-product Raffinate availability and tightening immediate supply.
• Naphtha assessments inched higher late December, nudging production costs upward and supporting Raffinate price strength.
• Export enquiries from Southeast Asian blenders increased, absorbing tighter merchant availability and supporting FOB offers.
Europe
• In Europe, the Raffinate Price Index softened slightly during the quarter ending December 2025, reflecting ample supply and moderate demand from MTBE and solvent markets.
• Raffinate Spot Price remained under mild pressure as Asian-origin imports arrived, and coastal inventories across Northwest European ports remained elevated.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast indicates modest near-term volatility, with potential recovery if naphtha costs firm and port inventories are absorbed.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend remained stable, with minor upward pressure from naphtha fluctuations but largely contained by steady energy costs.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook remained mixed, supported by seasonal MTBE blending and consistent solvent offtake, though overall industrial activity showed softness.
• Elevated port and warehouse inventories moderated immediate spot-market movements, keeping the Price Index largely stable.
• Export inquiries to Southeast European and Mediterranean markets provided selective support, though overall domestic absorption was restrained.
• Refinery operations across Germany, Benelux, and Italy ran near nameplate capacity, while temporary run adjustments in a few crackers slightly tightened by-product Raffinate availability.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Temporary refinery run adjustments and environmental audits in Northern Europe slightly reduced by-product Raffinate supply, supporting Price Index stability.
• Stable but slightly firmer naphtha costs nudged production economics upward, providing mild support for offers.
• Increased export inquiries and continued MTBE blending activity absorbed tighter merchant availability, limiting immediate spot-market declines.
• Consistent downstream demand from adhesives, printing inks, and road-marking projects absorbed available supply, preventing significant downward pressure on spot offers.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 2.85% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by tight supply.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 481.67/MT, reflecting seasonal blending demand and tight inventories.
• Raffinate Spot Price remained volatile amid port dwell surcharges and export scheduling friction across Gulf Coast terminals.
• Raffinate Price Forecast shows modest upside potential with seasonal restocking and possible naphtha feedstock support.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend lifted as naphtha input costs firmed, tightening refinery margins and elevating cost floors.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook softened post-summer with reduced gasoline blending pull and selective solvent sector buying.
• Price Index movement reflected inventory builds, refinery runs near capacity, and muted export arbitrage after summer.
• Port Houston congestion and logistical costs pressured spot liquidity, influencing Raffinate Spot Price realization and spreads.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal decline in gasoline blending reduced offtake, easing immediate merchant raffinate demand across Gulf Coast hubs.
• Persistent naphtha feedstock cost pressure elevated production cost floors, limiting downward pressure on spot prices.
• Port dwell surcharges and logistical friction tied up inventory and working capital, prompting sellers to seek liquidity.
Europe
• In Germany, Raffinate trading activity picked up due to stronger MTBE blending demand and seasonal restocking.
• Supply-demand balance reflected steady refinery operations and moderate export interest.
• Spot market volumes remained dynamic amid arbitrage flows between Northwestern European hubs.
• Production costs were influenced by feedstock movements, though recent stability limited major cost pressures.
• Demand outlook remained cautiously positive for blending operations, tempered by seasonal downstream softening.
• Export interest from Southern Europe and Mediterranean markets supported prompt allocations.
• Balanced inventories at major North Sea ports and inland terminals facilitated smooth deliveries.
• Domestic buyers maintained selective purchasing, aligning volumes with downstream blending schedules.
• Regional logistical adjustments and freight capacity availability shaped prompt market flows.
Why did Raffinate dynamics change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Increased export movements and cross-regional arbitrage reduced domestic availability, tightening prompt supply allocations.
• Feedstock stability maintained consistent production levels, preventing major output disruptions for refiners.
• Port operations and inland logistics experienced minor adjustments, influencing delivery timing and flow patterns.
APAC
• In China, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 4.93% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger MTBE blending demand.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 724.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and export interest.
• Raffinate Spot Price remained volatile amid export arbitrage flows and seller discipline at Qingdao FOB origins.
• Raffinate Price Forecast points to modest seasonal gains, tempered by inventory overhang and cooling downstream demand.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend showed mild upward pressure from naphtha, though recent softening limited sustained cost-push.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook remains cautiously positive for MTBE and blending, constrained by seasonal demand softening.
• Raffinate Price Index resilience reflected export interest and refinery run stability despite domestic consumption weakness.
• Balanced inventories at Qingdao and steady refinery operations limited upside, although port frictions intermittently affected flows.
• Sustained Southeast Asian export interest supported prompt market bids, while domestic buyers remained purchase-on-demand through summer
Why did the price of Raffinate change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated exports and arbitrage uptake reduced domestic availability, tightening prompt supplies and supporting higher offers.
• Naphtha cost stability provided mild production cost pressure, preventing deeper price declines for Raffinate sellers.
• Port congestion eased at Qingdao while regional logistical frictions shifted flows, moderating delivery disruptions and pricing.
