For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Raffinate Price Index (DDP Texas) closed Q2 2025 with a 4.4% gain, driven by a sharp rebound in June after a soft April and May.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices may inclined by amid a high downstream outlook, where MTBE demand remained strong and feedstock preferences shifted toward lighter alternatives like ethane. Stable conditions and lackluster gasoline blending activity further weighed on market sentiment.
• May's 2.17% drop continued the bearish tone, with low naphtha prices and stagnant refinery output despite seasonal gasoline blending starting to pick up. Tariff tensions added to market hesitation.
• June reversed the trend, with a 10.00% jump in Raffinate Spot Prices as Gulf Coast gasoline demand surged. Maintenance at key refineries further tightened regional availability.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend moved modestly higher due to rising naphtha prices (+1.99%), while logistical efficiency at ports like Houston helped maintain throughput.
• Imports from Brazil remained limited, and the market saw low inventories as most Raffinate was absorbed directly into fuel blending pools.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 is moderately strong, with continued gasoline blending activity and limited alternative feedstock options.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast for Q3 points to a modest upward bias, driven by seasonal demand and lean inventory conditions.
APAC
• The Raffinate Price Index (FOB Qingdao) increased by 9.77% in Q2 2025. Although prices were weak in April they ended June on a higher note due to expectation of improved downstream activity.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices may incline amid low Chinese supply and strong MTBE demand from both domestic and key export markets like India. Stagnant trade flows and steady methanol prices signaled limited recovery potential.
• In May, Raffinate Spot Prices climbed 1.65% as feedstock naphtha costs rose slightly and port congestion at Qingdao disrupted normal flows. However, bearish MTBE trends capped stronger price movement.
• June’s price rally of 7.99% was driven by robust downstream MTBE blending demand, rising fuel consumption across Eastern China, and consistent export pull from Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia and Singapore.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend stayed moderately upward, influenced by higher naphtha costs and steady refinery throughput. Margin pressures were minimal due to solid domestic blending pull.
• Oversupply risks eased in June, as refinery outputs matched offtake needs and port congestion levels normalized, improving outbound logistics.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 2025 is cautiously bullish, supported by seasonal fuel usage, stable export activity, and a rebound in MTBE blending demand.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast for Q3 leans stable to slightly bullish, contingent on gasoline demand patterns and naphtha pricing consistency.
Europe
• The Raffinate Price Index in Europe reflected modest downward pressure during Q2, with stable to weak market dynamics shaped by subdued automotive sector activity and tighter fuel blending policies.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices saw limited support as downstream MTBE production remained low in countries like Germany and France, influenced by blending regulations and a sluggish post-winter demand recovery. In the Netherlands, operational moderation and buyer caution contributed to a noticeable reduction in Raffinate consumption.
• Demand sentiment across the region remained cautious amid macroeconomic pressures, regulatory tightening, and delayed restocking.
• Inventories across major terminals remained above seasonal norms, as downstream fuel and petrochemical segments showed only muted procurement interest.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend remained stable, but refiners faced growing carbon compliance costs and pressure from rising utilities, squeezing blending margins.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 is neutral to slightly bearish, pending signs of sustained demand recovery in road transport fuels and relaxed blending regulations.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast suggests prices may hold flat or decline slightly, unless macroeconomic sentiment or gasoline blending economics improve.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Raffinate market witnessed a progressive decline in prices, reflecting a bearish trend throughout the quarter. January began with a slight price rise, driven by tight supply amid steady MTBE demand. However, by February, prices dropped nearly 14% due to sluggish downstream activity, ample inventories, and weak crude oil values. This downward trend intensified in March with a further 15% decline, driven by weak gasoline blending demand, high inventories, and reduced refinery throughput. Despite some late-March recovery due to seasonal fuel demand, overall Q1 pricing remained under pressure compared to Q4 2024, which had ended on a more stabilized note supported by firm MTBE demand.
Supply tightened in January due to reduced refinery throughput but normalized by February with stable Gulf Coast operations. March saw lower refinery utilization and permanent closures, further restricting production. Nevertheless, high inventory levels prevented major supply shocks throughout the quarter.
Demand was steady in January, weakened in February, and remained subdued in March. Automotive fuel demand and MTBE blending were notably soft, contributing to a consistently bearish market sentiment across Q1 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Chinese Raffinate market followed a bearish trajectory, with prices gradually softening across the quarter. January saw a brief price uptick supported by seasonal restocking and moderate post-holiday gasoline blending demand. However, February and March reversed this trend, driven by weakening downstream MTBE consumption, subdued crude oil support, and high inventory levels. Prices fell by 6.16% in March, marking the steepest decline of the quarter. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices were stabilized by tighter supply and rising naphtha costs, Q1 2025 was dominated by weak fundamentals and soft downstream sentiment.
Refiners adjusted operations in January to meet restocking demand, but February and March saw stable to ample supply. Minor MTBE plant turnarounds did little to alter the oversupplied market. Feedstock naphtha and fuel oil prices declined, reducing cost support for Raffinate and pressuring margins. Demand weakened steadily through the quarter due to lackluster MTBE output and reduced gasoline blending activity. Buyers remained cautious, engaging only in limited procurement. Export opportunities also diminished, especially from India, reinforcing a bearish tone for China’s Raffinate market during Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German raffinate market showed a predominantly bearish trend, shaped by weak downstream demand and cost-side pressures. January began with modest stability, supported by restocking from the MTBE and SBA sectors and firm fuel blending activity. However, as the quarter progressed, demand headwinds intensified. In February, a drop in naphtha prices and limited refinery output due to maintenance activity suppressed raffinate production costs but failed to drive market enthusiasm amid sluggish automotive fuel consumption. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and softer export activity weakened overall sentiment.
March brought further price declines as fuel blending demand remained underwhelming and inventories built up across several regions. The shift toward alternative fuels and EV adoption continued to curb gasoline-based product demand. Despite ongoing regulatory constraints and margin compression, German refiners maintained consistent production through technological efficiencies and streamlined operations. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 saw diminished seasonal support and a more subdued downstream environment, although signs of gradual recovery are expected in the coming months as refinery maintenance concludes and spring demand picks up.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the U.S. raffinate market showed varying trends influenced by seasonal factors, feedstock price fluctuations, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. October saw price declines due to oversupply and reduced inventory costs, while lower feedstock naphtha prices further lowered production expenses.
Seasonal demand from the fuel sector increased, driven by the agricultural harvest and winter heating needs, with diesel-powered machinery and residential heating boosting consumption. In November, prices continued to decline as refinery utilization rates dropped and key refinery closures tightened supply. Economic uncertainties and the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels dampened demand in gasoline and petrochemical sectors, contributing to subdued downstream activity and a bearish market sentiment.
By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives like methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and secondary butyl alcohol (SBA), essential for fuel additives and industrial applications. Despite challenges from environmental regulations, fluctuating feedstock costs, and supply chain disruptions, advanced refining technologies sustained production. The U.S. raffinate market remains resilient, with steady demand growth expected into 2025.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Chinese raffinate market exhibited fluctuating trends driven by feedstock prices, demand shifts, and economic factors. In October, prices rose due to higher naphtha costs and limited supply despite weak downstream market activity and subdued demand from end-users. The gasoline sector faced additional challenges as raffinate demand weakened due to volatile crude oil prices and a softer MTBE market. By November, inventories remained sufficient, and production aligned with moderate demand, particularly in the MTBE and MEK sectors, as crude oil prices stabilized. In December, tighter supply conditions and higher naphtha prices supported slight price increases, while the petrochemical sector continued to drive demand for raffinate-derived products like isobutene and synthetic rubber. However, refinery throughput declined by 1.6%, reflecting stagnant fuel demand, the growing shift to electric vehicles (EVs), and the adoption of alternative fuels like LNG. Challenges such as China’s property crisis and slower economic growth tempered recovery, but stable production dynamics and the resilience of the petrochemical sector ensured steady demand for raffinate, albeit with moderated growth.
Europe
The German raffinate market in Q4 2024 experienced mixed trends influenced by feedstock price fluctuations, seasonal demand, and economic conditions. In October, prices declined due to lower naphtha costs and oversupply, despite increased demand from the fuel sector during the agricultural harvest and winter heating seasons. Downstream sectors, including MTBE and SBA, showed steady inquiries, but geopolitical tensions and subdued trade activity limited market momentum. In November, bearish pressures grew as refinery utilization rates fell and planned maintenance curtailed raffinate production. Demand softened further as the transition to alternative fuels, like natural gas, reduced gasoline and diesel consumption. High energy costs and weaker petrochemical activity exacerbated market challenges. By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives, particularly MTBE and SBA, alongside increased seasonal heating oil purchases. Easing cracker maintenance and restocking activities in the petrochemical sector provided additional support. Despite regulatory challenges and supply chain disruptions, Germany’s refining sector remained resilient, leveraging technological advancements to sustain production. The outlook for 2025 points to gradual growth driven by stable production and improved downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Raffinate market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by a combination of factors. The market saw a surge in demand from various downstream industries, including solvents and coatings, leading to a tightening of supply and pushing prices upwards.
Additionally, stable production levels at refineries and petrochemical plants contributed to the positive pricing environment. The quarter was marked by favorable economic conditions, supporting the Raffinate market and creating a bullish trend. In the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market dynamics were influenced by a steady increase in demand from key industries and stable supply levels.
Seasonal fluctuations and production priorities of refineries, focusing on gasoline and diesel, led to higher yields of Raffinate and subsequently impacted pricing. Noteworthy is the resilience of the market despite minor logistical disruptions and no reported plant shutdowns during the quarter. The overall trend in Q3 2024 showcased a positive pricing environment, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Raffinate DDP Texas in the USA stood at USD 746/MT, reflecting a robust and strengthening market for the product.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable uptrend in Raffinate prices, driven by several key factors. Supply constraints due to maintenance and construction activities at various facilities led to a moderate decrease in availability, boosting prices. Additionally, the seasonal shift towards winter-grade gasoline production resulted in a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, further pushing prices upwards. The overall market sentiment in the region was positive, with increased demand from industries like paints, coatings, and cleaning solvents contributing to the price surge. China, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a 4% increase from the first to the second half of the quarter. The correlation between seasonal demand fluctuations and price adjustments was evident, reflecting a stable yet bullish market environment. Despite a +4% change from the previous quarter, the quarter-ending price in China stood at USD 700/MT of Raffinate FOB-Qingdao, signaling a strong finish to the period. No significant disruptions or plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter, further supporting the positive pricing trend observed in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Raffinate market in Europe experienced a notable decline in prices, with the Netherlands being the most impacted. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Firstly, oversupply in the market due to increased production and reduced demand from the petrochemical sector led to pricing pressures. Additionally, weakening global economic conditions and decreased refining margins further pushed prices downwards. The seasonal shift towards lower energy demand also played a role in the declining prices. Comparing to the same quarter last year, prices saw a significant decrease, indicating a prolonged downward trajectory. Furthermore, the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 showed a decline, reflecting the ongoing negative trend. The second half of the quarter saw a more pronounced decrease compared to the first half, emphasizing the intensification of price declines. Seasonal fluctuations and production priorities of refineries, focusing on gasoline and diesel, led to higher yields of Raffinate and subsequently impacted pricing.
Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Raffinate prices in the Netherlands, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment characterized by consistent decreases throughout the period.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1. What is the current price of Raffinate in China and the U.S.?
As of June 2025, Raffinate was priced at USD 730/tonne FOB Qingdao (China) and USD 495/tonne DDP Texas (USA).
Q2. Who are the top Raffinate producers in APAC?
Leading producers include Reliance Industries Limited, ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Ltd., and JG Summit Olefins Corporation, with consistent exports to India, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Q3. What is the Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 2025?
Outlook is bullish in China and the U.S., due to gasoline blending season and fuel consumption recovery. Europe may remain tepid unless road fuel demand improves.
Q4. What are the major drivers behind the Raffinate Production Cost Trend?
Naphtha feedstock pricing, refinery capacity utilization, and regional logistics costs play a critical role in influencing production costs and profit margins.
