For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 2.85% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by tight supply.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 481.67/MT, reflecting seasonal blending demand and tight inventories.
• Raffinate Spot Price remained volatile amid port dwell surcharges and export scheduling friction across Gulf Coast terminals.
• Raffinate Price Forecast shows modest upside potential with seasonal restocking and possible naphtha feedstock support.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend lifted as naphtha input costs firmed, tightening refinery margins and elevating cost floors.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook softened post-summer with reduced gasoline blending pull and selective solvent sector buying.
• Price Index movement reflected inventory builds, refinery runs near capacity, and muted export arbitrage after summer.
• Port Houston congestion and logistical costs pressured spot liquidity, influencing Raffinate Spot Price realization and spreads.
Why did the price of Raffinate change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal decline in gasoline blending reduced offtake, easing immediate merchant raffinate demand across Gulf Coast hubs.
• Persistent naphtha feedstock cost pressure elevated production cost floors, limiting downward pressure on spot prices.
• Port dwell surcharges and logistical friction tied up inventory and working capital, prompting sellers to seek liquidity.
Europe
• In Germany, Raffinate trading activity picked up due to stronger MTBE blending demand and seasonal restocking.
• Supply-demand balance reflected steady refinery operations and moderate export interest.
• Spot market volumes remained dynamic amid arbitrage flows between Northwestern European hubs.
• Production costs were influenced by feedstock movements, though recent stability limited major cost pressures.
• Demand outlook remained cautiously positive for blending operations, tempered by seasonal downstream softening.
• Export interest from Southern Europe and Mediterranean markets supported prompt allocations.
• Balanced inventories at major North Sea ports and inland terminals facilitated smooth deliveries.
• Domestic buyers maintained selective purchasing, aligning volumes with downstream blending schedules.
• Regional logistical adjustments and freight capacity availability shaped prompt market flows.
Why did Raffinate dynamics change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Increased export movements and cross-regional arbitrage reduced domestic availability, tightening prompt supply allocations.
• Feedstock stability maintained consistent production levels, preventing major output disruptions for refiners.
• Port operations and inland logistics experienced minor adjustments, influencing delivery timing and flow patterns.
APAC
• In China, the Raffinate Price Index rose by 4.93% quarter-over-quarter, supported by stronger MTBE blending demand.
• The average Raffinate price for the quarter was approximately USD 724.33/MT, reflecting balanced supply and export interest.
• Raffinate Spot Price remained volatile amid export arbitrage flows and seller discipline at Qingdao FOB origins.
• Raffinate Price Forecast points to modest seasonal gains, tempered by inventory overhang and cooling downstream demand.
• Raffinate Production Cost Trend showed mild upward pressure from naphtha, though recent softening limited sustained cost-push.
• Raffinate Demand Outlook remains cautiously positive for MTBE and blending, constrained by seasonal demand softening.
• Raffinate Price Index resilience reflected export interest and refinery run stability despite domestic consumption weakness.
• Balanced inventories at Qingdao and steady refinery operations limited upside, although port frictions intermittently affected flows.
• Sustained Southeast Asian export interest supported prompt market bids, while domestic buyers remained purchase-on-demand through summer
Why did the price of Raffinate change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated exports and arbitrage uptake reduced domestic availability, tightening prompt supplies and supporting higher offers.
• Naphtha cost stability provided mild production cost pressure, preventing deeper price declines for Raffinate sellers.
• Port congestion eased at Qingdao while regional logistical frictions shifted flows, moderating delivery disruptions and pricing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Raffinate Price Index (DDP Texas) closed Q2 2025 with a 4.4% gain, driven by a sharp rebound in June after a soft April and May.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices may inclined by amid a high downstream outlook, where MTBE demand remained strong and feedstock preferences shifted toward lighter alternatives like ethane. Stable conditions and lackluster gasoline blending activity further weighed on market sentiment.
• May's 2.17% drop continued the bearish tone, with low naphtha prices and stagnant refinery output despite seasonal gasoline blending starting to pick up. Tariff tensions added to market hesitation.
• June reversed the trend, with a 10.00% jump in Raffinate Spot Prices as Gulf Coast gasoline demand surged. Maintenance at key refineries further tightened regional availability.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend moved modestly higher due to rising naphtha prices (+1.99%), while logistical efficiency at ports like Houston helped maintain throughput.
• Imports from Brazil remained limited, and the market saw low inventories as most Raffinate was absorbed directly into fuel blending pools.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 is moderately strong, with continued gasoline blending activity and limited alternative feedstock options.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast for Q3 points to a modest upward bias, driven by seasonal demand and lean inventory conditions.
APAC
• The Raffinate Price Index (FOB Qingdao) increased by 9.77% in Q2 2025. Although prices were weak in April they ended June on a higher note due to expectation of improved downstream activity.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices may incline amid low Chinese supply and strong MTBE demand from both domestic and key export markets like India. Stagnant trade flows and steady methanol prices signaled limited recovery potential.
• In May, Raffinate Spot Prices climbed 1.65% as feedstock naphtha costs rose slightly and port congestion at Qingdao disrupted normal flows. However, bearish MTBE trends capped stronger price movement.
• June’s price rally of 7.99% was driven by robust downstream MTBE blending demand, rising fuel consumption across Eastern China, and consistent export pull from Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia and Singapore.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend stayed moderately upward, influenced by higher naphtha costs and steady refinery throughput. Margin pressures were minimal due to solid domestic blending pull.
• Oversupply risks eased in June, as refinery outputs matched offtake needs and port congestion levels normalized, improving outbound logistics.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 2025 is cautiously bullish, supported by seasonal fuel usage, stable export activity, and a rebound in MTBE blending demand.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast for Q3 leans stable to slightly bullish, contingent on gasoline demand patterns and naphtha pricing consistency.
Europe
• The Raffinate Price Index in Europe reflected modest downward pressure during Q2, with stable to weak market dynamics shaped by subdued automotive sector activity and tighter fuel blending policies.
• Why did the price of Raffinate change in July 2025? Prices saw limited support as downstream MTBE production remained low in countries like Germany and France, influenced by blending regulations and a sluggish post-winter demand recovery. In the Netherlands, operational moderation and buyer caution contributed to a noticeable reduction in Raffinate consumption.
• Demand sentiment across the region remained cautious amid macroeconomic pressures, regulatory tightening, and delayed restocking.
• Inventories across major terminals remained above seasonal norms, as downstream fuel and petrochemical segments showed only muted procurement interest.
• The Raffinate Production Cost Trend remained stable, but refiners faced growing carbon compliance costs and pressure from rising utilities, squeezing blending margins.
• The Raffinate Demand Outlook for Q3 is neutral to slightly bearish, pending signs of sustained demand recovery in road transport fuels and relaxed blending regulations.
• The Raffinate Price Forecast suggests prices may hold flat or decline slightly, unless macroeconomic sentiment or gasoline blending economics improve.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Raffinate market witnessed a progressive decline in prices, reflecting a bearish trend throughout the quarter. January began with a slight price rise, driven by tight supply amid steady MTBE demand. However, by February, prices dropped nearly 14% due to sluggish downstream activity, ample inventories, and weak crude oil values. This downward trend intensified in March with a further 15% decline, driven by weak gasoline blending demand, high inventories, and reduced refinery throughput. Despite some late-March recovery due to seasonal fuel demand, overall Q1 pricing remained under pressure compared to Q4 2024, which had ended on a more stabilized note supported by firm MTBE demand.
Supply tightened in January due to reduced refinery throughput but normalized by February with stable Gulf Coast operations. March saw lower refinery utilization and permanent closures, further restricting production. Nevertheless, high inventory levels prevented major supply shocks throughout the quarter.
Demand was steady in January, weakened in February, and remained subdued in March. Automotive fuel demand and MTBE blending were notably soft, contributing to a consistently bearish market sentiment across Q1 2025.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Chinese Raffinate market followed a bearish trajectory, with prices gradually softening across the quarter. January saw a brief price uptick supported by seasonal restocking and moderate post-holiday gasoline blending demand. However, February and March reversed this trend, driven by weakening downstream MTBE consumption, subdued crude oil support, and high inventory levels. Prices fell by 6.16% in March, marking the steepest decline of the quarter. Compared to Q4 2024, where prices were stabilized by tighter supply and rising naphtha costs, Q1 2025 was dominated by weak fundamentals and soft downstream sentiment.
Refiners adjusted operations in January to meet restocking demand, but February and March saw stable to ample supply. Minor MTBE plant turnarounds did little to alter the oversupplied market. Feedstock naphtha and fuel oil prices declined, reducing cost support for Raffinate and pressuring margins. Demand weakened steadily through the quarter due to lackluster MTBE output and reduced gasoline blending activity. Buyers remained cautious, engaging only in limited procurement. Export opportunities also diminished, especially from India, reinforcing a bearish tone for China’s Raffinate market during Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German raffinate market showed a predominantly bearish trend, shaped by weak downstream demand and cost-side pressures. January began with modest stability, supported by restocking from the MTBE and SBA sectors and firm fuel blending activity. However, as the quarter progressed, demand headwinds intensified. In February, a drop in naphtha prices and limited refinery output due to maintenance activity suppressed raffinate production costs but failed to drive market enthusiasm amid sluggish automotive fuel consumption. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and softer export activity weakened overall sentiment.
March brought further price declines as fuel blending demand remained underwhelming and inventories built up across several regions. The shift toward alternative fuels and EV adoption continued to curb gasoline-based product demand. Despite ongoing regulatory constraints and margin compression, German refiners maintained consistent production through technological efficiencies and streamlined operations. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 saw diminished seasonal support and a more subdued downstream environment, although signs of gradual recovery are expected in the coming months as refinery maintenance concludes and spring demand picks up.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the U.S. raffinate market showed varying trends influenced by seasonal factors, feedstock price fluctuations, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. October saw price declines due to oversupply and reduced inventory costs, while lower feedstock naphtha prices further lowered production expenses.
Seasonal demand from the fuel sector increased, driven by the agricultural harvest and winter heating needs, with diesel-powered machinery and residential heating boosting consumption. In November, prices continued to decline as refinery utilization rates dropped and key refinery closures tightened supply. Economic uncertainties and the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels dampened demand in gasoline and petrochemical sectors, contributing to subdued downstream activity and a bearish market sentiment.
By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives like methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and secondary butyl alcohol (SBA), essential for fuel additives and industrial applications. Despite challenges from environmental regulations, fluctuating feedstock costs, and supply chain disruptions, advanced refining technologies sustained production. The U.S. raffinate market remains resilient, with steady demand growth expected into 2025.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Chinese raffinate market exhibited fluctuating trends driven by feedstock prices, demand shifts, and economic factors. In October, prices rose due to higher naphtha costs and limited supply despite weak downstream market activity and subdued demand from end-users. The gasoline sector faced additional challenges as raffinate demand weakened due to volatile crude oil prices and a softer MTBE market. By November, inventories remained sufficient, and production aligned with moderate demand, particularly in the MTBE and MEK sectors, as crude oil prices stabilized. In December, tighter supply conditions and higher naphtha prices supported slight price increases, while the petrochemical sector continued to drive demand for raffinate-derived products like isobutene and synthetic rubber. However, refinery throughput declined by 1.6%, reflecting stagnant fuel demand, the growing shift to electric vehicles (EVs), and the adoption of alternative fuels like LNG. Challenges such as China’s property crisis and slower economic growth tempered recovery, but stable production dynamics and the resilience of the petrochemical sector ensured steady demand for raffinate, albeit with moderated growth.
Europe
The German raffinate market in Q4 2024 experienced mixed trends influenced by feedstock price fluctuations, seasonal demand, and economic conditions. In October, prices declined due to lower naphtha costs and oversupply, despite increased demand from the fuel sector during the agricultural harvest and winter heating seasons. Downstream sectors, including MTBE and SBA, showed steady inquiries, but geopolitical tensions and subdued trade activity limited market momentum. In November, bearish pressures grew as refinery utilization rates fell and planned maintenance curtailed raffinate production. Demand softened further as the transition to alternative fuels, like natural gas, reduced gasoline and diesel consumption. High energy costs and weaker petrochemical activity exacerbated market challenges. By December, the market stabilized, supported by strong demand for raffinate derivatives, particularly MTBE and SBA, alongside increased seasonal heating oil purchases. Easing cracker maintenance and restocking activities in the petrochemical sector provided additional support. Despite regulatory challenges and supply chain disruptions, Germany’s refining sector remained resilient, leveraging technological advancements to sustain production. The outlook for 2025 points to gradual growth driven by stable production and improved downstream demand.
