For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Raisins Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by strong retail sales.
• Raisins production costs increased, influenced by a 2.6% year-over-year PPI rise in August 2025.
• Consumer prices, with a 3.0% CPI increase in September 2025, impacted consumer purchasing power.
• Demand for raisins was supported by a robust 5.42% year-over-year retail sales increase in September 2025.
• A healthy labor market, with 4.3% unemployment in September 2025, bolstered consumer spending capacity.
• However, declining consumer confidence to 94.2 in September 2025 suggested cautious discretionary spending.
• Industrial production saw a modest 0.1% year-over-year increase in September 2025, offering limited demand support.
• Rising input costs for producers, indicated by PPI, could lead to higher wholesale prices for raisins.
• Strong consumer spending, evidenced by retail sales growth, helped offset some negative inflation impacts.
Why did the price of Raisins change in September 2025 in North America?
• Strong retail sales, up 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, boosted consumer demand.
• Rising production costs, reflected by a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025, exerted upward price pressure.
• Declining consumer confidence in September 2025 tempered demand, potentially limiting price increases.
APAC
• In China, the Raisins Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by deflationary pressures and contracting manufacturing activity.
• The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.3% year-over-year in September 2025, dampening consumer purchasing power for raisins.
• Raisins demand outlook faced headwinds from a contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025, impacting industrial usage.
• Retail sales increased 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, providing some support for direct raisin consumption.
• Raisins production costs were influenced by a 2.3% year-over-year decline in the Producer Price Index in September 2025.
• Pessimistic consumer confidence at 89.6 and a 5.2% unemployment rate in September 2025 pressured discretionary spending.
• Industrial production expanded 6.5% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating sustained output in food processing.
• The Raisins Price Index is forecast to remain stable to slightly falling due to persistent weak demand signals.
Why did the price of Raisins change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Deflationary pressures from the 0.3% CPI decrease in September 2025 reduced consumer demand.
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025 signaled weaker industrial demand for ingredients.
• Lower Producer Price Index by 2.3% in September 2025 suggested reduced input costs and weak pricing power.
Europe
• In Germany, the Raisins Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by contracting industrial production.
• The Raisins Price Forecast suggests stability or slight declines due to persistent weak industrial demand.
• Production costs for Raisins remained elevated in Q3 2025, despite a -1.7% PPI decrease in September 2025.
• Raisins demand outlook was subdued in Q3 2025, as industrial production declined -1.0% in September 2025.
• Consumer purchasing power was constrained by a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025, impacting direct consumption.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, signaling reduced demand from industrial food manufacturers.
• A stable 6.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 limited consumer spending on discretionary food items.
• Stabilizing consumer confidence in Q3 2025 offered some potential demand support, despite market weakness.
Why did the price of Raisins change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Industrial demand for Raisins weakened in Q3 2025, with manufacturing activity contracting.
• Consumer purchasing power was reduced by a 2.4% CPI increase in September 2025, limiting spending.
• Despite elevated operating costs, a -1.7% PPI decrease in September 2025 offered cost relief.
