For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The overall quarterly trend for Rapeseed oil spot price in North America saw a downward trajectory in Q2 2025, with an average quarter-over-quarter price decline approximately 4.71%, ending June prices at USD 1111 per metric ton. This reflects significant market volatility amid geopolitical and supply chain headwinds.
• In April 2025, Rapeseed oil prices surged initially driven by a 25% tariff on Canadian canola imports, tightening supply and pushing prices up amid strong renewable diesel sector demand, tightening the market and causing elevated cost pressures.
• Supply dynamics through Q2 saw tightened availability due to adverse weather in Europe and Asia, disrupted shipments from Ukraine, and increased processing bottlenecks, all contributing to constrained rapeseed oil availability and higher production costs for North American refiners.
• May maintained upward price momentum driven by fears of crop delays in the U.S. Midwest and Argentina, coupled with elevated freight costs and crush margins tightening, which pushed prices before June corrections.
• June saw a sharp 14.67% drop in rapeseed oil spot prices in North America, attributed to an oversupply from strong harvests in Canada and Europe, muted biodiesel demand, and competitive pricing from soybean and palm oils dampening import prices.
• Demand outlook was robust in April and May, fueled by sustained interest from food processing and renewable fuel sectors, with buyers prioritizing supply continuity over price considerations amid tight availability.
• By June, Rapeseed oil demand weakened notably in the biodiesel segment and food industries as cheaper alternatives gained traction, leading to reduced imports and softened market absorption.
• Throughout Q2, Rapeseed oil production cost trends were marked by elevated input costs due to tariffs, disrupted supply chains, and freight inflation, though June’s oversupply slightly alleviated some pressure for refiners temporarily.
• The Rapeseed oil price forecast for the next quarter looks cautiously stable to modestly bullish, contingent on geopolitical developments and weather impacts, with the market sensitive to biodiesel demand recovery and import cost fluctuations.
• Overall, North American market participants are navigating heightened operational challenges amid persistent supply-side vulnerabilities and evolving demand patterns in key application sectors.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• In APAC, rapeseed oil spot prices demonstrated a general upward trend in Q2 2025, averaging a quarter-over-quarter increase close to 2.32%, reflecting firm domestic demand and constrained supply conditions.
• April prices in India rose due to reduced domestic acreage and a government hike in Minimum Support Prices, tightening supply and driving stronger export demand, particularly from China amid global import tariff shifts.
• Supply-side pressures continued through May, exacerbated by unseasonal rains affecting yields in major growing states, challenging procurement for processors and pushing manufacturing costs higher within the quarter.
• In June, prices increased by 3.01% month-on-month, supported by global supply tightness from delayed harvests, geopolitical tensions impacting exports, and increased biofuel blending mandates, reinforcing a bullish market.
• On the demand front, steady and growing consumption across household, industrial segments, and the food processing industry supported price strength, with preferences shifting towards healthier and sustainable edible oils.
• Rising feedstock procurement costs, transportation bottlenecks, and labor shortages intensified production cost trends, squeezing margins for Indian refiners during the quarter.
• Demand outlook remains positive fueled by increasing biofuel consumption, strong retail and institutional buying, and substitution effects from volatile palm oil prices, sustaining robust end-user pull into Q3.
• Despite weaker rupee parity inflating import costs, domestic policies incentivizing local production have yet to offset supply constraints, keeping prices elevated.
• The production cost trend reflected inflationary pressures from higher input and freight costs, which combined with supply tightness, further heightened market volatility in APAC.
• The price forecast for next quarter anticipates stable to modestly increasing prices, driven by continued demand growth and persistent supply-side risks amid global geopolitical uncertainties.
Europe
• European rapeseed oil spot prices in Q2 2025 took a downward turn overall, with an average quarter-over-quarter price decrease of approximately 6.7%, ending June near €945 per metric ton due to oversupply and reduced demand.
• April saw a moderate price rise attributed to weather-induced production declines, tightening European and global supplies, and increased demand from the biofuel sector under EU climate policies.
• May experienced a sharp price surge due to yield concerns from heatwaves in major producing areas and speculative buying, compounded by regional old-crop supply exhaustion and firm crude oil prices supporting biodiesel demand.
• June marked a pronounced price correction with a steep 20.72% drop, driven by a largescale harvest surplus in Germany, France, and Poland, weaker global demand—especially from China and India—and intensified competition from cheaper soybean and palm oils.
• Rapeseed oil manufacturing costs eased in June as feedstock prices declined and crushing activity ramped up amid abundant rapeseed supply, though processors faced reduced margins due to falling export prices and muted domestic consumption.
• Rapeseed oil demand outlook was strong in April and May, driven by the biofuel sector’s robust absorption under stringent EU renewable mandates, but weakened considerably in June as blending mandates softened and downstream industries shifted to cost-effective alternatives.
• Supply chain dynamics involved increased regional crushing volumes and export efforts, but logistical challenges and competition from Eastern European exporters pressured prices and squeezed manufacturer profitability.
• Rapeseed oil Production cost trends reflected higher input prices during April-May due to weather risks but eased in June following commodity price declines and subdued energy costs.
• The Rapeseed oil price forecast for the next quarter anticipates potential stabilization or mild recovery if supply-demand balances tighten again, though risks exist from persistent demand softness and global oilseed market fluctuations.
• Overall, the European rapeseed oil market navigated a volatile Q2 with supply surpluses confronting fluctuating demand, underscoring complex interactions between climatic, policy, and competitive factors shaping pricing and trade flows
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by a cautiously optimistic demand recovery, particularly from the biofuel sector, amid ongoing supply constraints stemming from logistical disruptions and adverse weather in key exporting regions. Market sentiment is buoyed by improved trading conditions and a weaker US dollar, enhancing domestic competitiveness.
However, inventory levels remain ample, prompting traders to prioritize stock clearance, which tempers upward price momentum despite persistent cost pressures from rising shipping and rival edible oil prices. In the USA, rapeseed oil prices rose by 3.86% from Q4 2024 to an average of $1281 USD/MT in Q1 2025, exhibiting a relatively flat intra-quarter trend.
This stability reflects balanced dynamics between steady downstream biofuel demand and supply-side challenges, including constrained imports and elevated logistics costs. The market outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by favorable currency effects and sustained demand, although inventory management and modest end-user inquiry declines suggest near-term price moderation.
Asia Pacific
The APAC rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 exhibited a cautious trading environment marked by ample inventories and fluctuating currency impacts that favored supplier margins. Despite anticipated declines in regional consumption and consumer purchasing sentiment, elevated raw material costs and production rates provided some price support. Market participants appeared focused on inventory clearance at higher prices, while inflationary pressures and rising transportation costs introduced complexity to pricing dynamics. Overall, the market sentiment remained mixed but stable, with expectations of improved trading conditions entering the second quarter. In India, rapeseed oil prices declined by 2.98% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Monthly data reveal a bullish intra-quarter trend, supported by rising prices from January through March. This price movement reflects higher inventories prompting suppliers to clear stocks at elevated levels amid currency fluctuations, inflationary input costs, and transportation expenses. Despite some anticipated consumption drops, the market outlook remains cautiously bullish with stable trading dynamics expected near term.
Europe
The European rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by sustained demand driven primarily by the biofuel sector, underpinned by stringent renewable energy policies and elevated crude oil prices. Supply constraints persist due to limited domestic production in key regions, tightening availability and supporting elevated price levels. Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker euro against the U.S. dollar, enhance export competitiveness, stimulating import demand from global markets. Inventory management remains a focal point, with traders balancing stockpiling against anticipated price rebounds amid broader economic pressures such as rising energy and transportation costs. In Germany, rapeseed oil prices increased by 5.36% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Monthly prices exhibited a largely flat intra-quarter trend, reflecting steady demand from the biofuel and downstream sectors alongside constrained domestic supply. The market remains cautiously bullish, supported by EU policy-driven demand and currency advantages, though tempered by expectations of modest price corrections and inventory adjustments in the near term.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the U.S. rapeseed oil market exhibited notable volatility, shaped by dynamic supply-demand factors and macroeconomic conditions. October saw a sharp price increase driven by reduced rapeseed production due to adverse weather, robust global demand, and rising freight and refining costs.
A weaker U.S. dollar and increased export demand from Europe and Asia further tightened domestic supply. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.5, reflecting easing contraction, despite hurricane-related supply chain disruptions and market uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election. In November, prices eased considerably as increased imports from Canada and Australia alleviated supply pressures, while high domestic inventories and reduced biofuel demand from fluctuating crude oil prices weighed on the market. However, improved coastal pickup volumes provided slight support.
By December, prices declined further due to an unexpectedly large global rapeseed harvest, shifting preferences toward alternative oils, and reduced biofuel sector demand. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower logistics costs amplified competitive imports, while an economic slowdown weakened consumption. As a result with the quarter ending in December 2024 was assembled at USD1212/MT CFR Chicago.
Asia Pacific
Throughout Q4 of 2024, India's rapeseed oil market experienced notable fluctuations driven by seasonal dynamics, domestic demand, and global influences. In October, rapeseed oil prices surged due to festive-driven consumption, strategic stockpiling by oil mills, and a supply crunch caused by increased demand for domestic oilseeds. Farmers withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices, supported by favorable monsoon conditions boosting crop forecasts. This trend continued until the middle of the quarter, i.e., in November 2024. Rising export demand, particularly to Southeast Asia, coupled with the depreciation of the Indian Rupee, further bolstered prices, despite competition from the U.S. and European markets. Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing sector demonstrated robust performance, with the PMI rising to 57.5, driven by strong domestic and international demand, despite inflationary pressures on input costs. By December, rapeseed oil prices experienced a significant decline, attributed to improved seasonal crop yields, reduced post-festive demand, and lower international prices due to strong harvests in Canada and Australia. This decline was further exacerbated by oversupply conditions as traders adjusted stock levels, reflecting the volatile interplay of domestic and global market forces shaping pricing trends in India with values assembled at USD 1568.12/MT Ex Jaipur.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the European rapeseed oil market, particularly in Germany, experienced significant fluctuations in prices due to multiple interrelated factors. In October, rapeseed oil export prices surged sharply, driven by a substantial decline in EU rapeseed production for the 2024-2025 period, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions that led to a global production shortfall of approximately 1.3 million tons. Trade restrictions with Russia and Belarus, alongside reduced Ukrainian exports, further strained Europe's ability to compensate for the production loss, tightening supply and pushing up prices. Simultaneously, global demand for rapeseed oil increased, as competition from alternative vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil, which were also facing supply challenges, intensified. November saw continued upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices in Germany, fuelled by reduced local production, tight supply chains, and robust demand from both the food and biodiesel sectors. The low harvests, compounded by reduced sunflower seed yields, made rapeseed oil an even more critical commodity. Additionally, strong international demand, especially from neighboring countries, led to price hikes. However, by December, the German rapeseed oil market saw a slight price decline, a natural correction after a period of sustained increases, largely driven by market consolidation, weakened demand from end-users in Europe, and the depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Increased competition from Canadian canola and softer global vegetable oil prices also contributed to this stabilization, underscoring the market's resilience amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, North America's rapeseed oil market faced a complex set of challenges shaped by global and regional dynamics. While the European market saw a notable price surge, North America experienced a more moderate trend. Supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and logistical delays impacted the market, but stable domestic production helped mitigate the effects.
Early in the quarter, rapeseed oil prices rose sharply due to heightened demand from end-user sectors and global supply chain issues, which increased shipping costs and extended lead times. Suppliers, benefiting from moderate inventories, raised prices to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. Currency fluctuations, particularly the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, further fueled this upward trend through August.
However, by September, a significant price drop occurred, marking an overall downward trend for the quarter. Weakened global demand for U.S. rapeseed oil, combined with increased competition from alternative oils like soybean and palm oil, contributed to the decline. Economic uncertainties and inflation in key importing regions further dampened demand, with buyers opting for more competitively priced alternatives. By the end of the quarter, North American rapeseed oil prices stabilized at around USD 1,187 per metric ton, reflecting a modest decline from the previous quarter.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward toward the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable surge in Rapeseed Oil prices, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. The market dynamics were primarily influenced by supply constraints, heightened demand from key industries, and increased import costs due to currency devaluation. The tight supply conditions, coupled with robust demand, led to aggressive inventory building by stockists, further exacerbating price pressures. Additionally, factors such as rising energy costs impacting production, delays in processing, and escalating freight expenses contributed to the overall price escalations. However, the agricultural sector's inability to immediately match the sudden spike in demand created a short-term supply crunch. As a result, the impact of these market dynamics ultimately trickled down to consumers. Manufacturers, faced with higher procurement costs and limited import options, were forced to pass on these expenses to end-users. As a result, retail prices for Rapeseed oil saw a significant increase. This price rise was a clear manifestation of the supply-demand imbalance that favored domestic production, a direct consequence of the government's policy decision to hike import duties on edible oils. Overall, the quarter recorded a substantial 13% increase from the previous quarter. Ending the quarter on a high note, the latest price stood at USD 1634.69/MT of Rapeseed Oil Ex Jaipur in India, reflecting a continuously positive pricing trend throughout the period.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European rapeseed oil market experienced a notable downturn due to several interconnected factors. Initially, July saw a surge in prices, particularly in Germany, driven by heightened purchasing activity and increased export demand. However, weather disruptions in key producing regions such as France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine negatively affected winter rapeseed crops, reducing yields and market availability, which contributed to the price rise. As August commenced, the market shifted towards a significant downward trend, which persisted until the latter weeks of September. This decline was driven by weakened demand from end-users, who adopted a more cautious approach to procurement amid ongoing market uncertainties. Despite adequate global supply levels, trading activity diminished, and preferences among manufacturers and suppliers began to shift towards alternative edible oils, further exerting downward pressure on rapeseed oil prices. By the end of the quarter, prices had dropped significantly, closing at USD 1,030 per metric ton (FOB Hamburg). This trend highlighted the complex interplay of economic dynamics, currency fluctuations, and agricultural conditions, creating challenges for the rapeseed oil supply chain. The overall sentiment in Germany reflected a bearish pricing environment, with continuous price declines throughout the quarter. This period underscored the need for adaptive strategies to navigate the volatile market landscape.
FAQ:
• What is the current price of rapeseed oil in major regions as of June 2025?
As of June 2025, rapeseed oil spot prices showed regional disparities. In North America, prices dropped to around USD 1111/MT due to oversupply. Europe recorded prices near €945/MT after a steep correction, while APAC markets, particularly India, saw prices around INR 144,250/MT amid firm domestic demand and persistent supply constraints.
• Who are the top global players in the rapeseed oil market?
Major global rapeseed oil market participants include Bunge Limited, Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), Cargill Incorporated, Glencore Agriculture, and Wilmar International. These companies operate extensive crushing, refining, and export networks across Europe, North America, and Asia, shaping global trade flows and influencing regional price dynamics through their processing and logistics strategies.
• What were the key price trends for rapeseed oil in North America during Q2 2025?
Rapeseed oil prices in North America experienced a volatile Q2 2025, ending with a 4.71% quarterly decline. After an early surge driven by Canadian tariff impacts and strong biodiesel demand, prices fell sharply in June due to oversupply, easing freight costs, and weaker demand from the biofuel and food sectors, especially as soybean and palm oils gained price competitiveness.
• How did APAC and European rapeseed oil markets perform in Q2 2025?
APAC markets trended upward, driven by robust domestic demand, adverse weather disruptions, and higher biofuel mandates. Conversely, Europe saw a net price decline of 6.7% due to a bumper harvest in major producing countries and declining demand. Both regions faced geopolitical and logistical pressures, but diverging demand trajectories defined their respective pricing outcomes.
