For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by a cautiously optimistic demand recovery, particularly from the biofuel sector, amid ongoing supply constraints stemming from logistical disruptions and adverse weather in key exporting regions. Market sentiment is buoyed by improved trading conditions and a weaker US dollar, enhancing domestic competitiveness.
However, inventory levels remain ample, prompting traders to prioritize stock clearance, which tempers upward price momentum despite persistent cost pressures from rising shipping and rival edible oil prices. In the USA, rapeseed oil prices rose by 3.86% from Q4 2024 to an average of $1281 USD/MT in Q1 2025, exhibiting a relatively flat intra-quarter trend.
This stability reflects balanced dynamics between steady downstream biofuel demand and supply-side challenges, including constrained imports and elevated logistics costs. The market outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by favorable currency effects and sustained demand, although inventory management and modest end-user inquiry declines suggest near-term price moderation.
Asia Pacific
The APAC rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 exhibited a cautious trading environment marked by ample inventories and fluctuating currency impacts that favored supplier margins. Despite anticipated declines in regional consumption and consumer purchasing sentiment, elevated raw material costs and production rates provided some price support. Market participants appeared focused on inventory clearance at higher prices, while inflationary pressures and rising transportation costs introduced complexity to pricing dynamics. Overall, the market sentiment remained mixed but stable, with expectations of improved trading conditions entering the second quarter. In India, rapeseed oil prices declined by 2.98% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Monthly data reveal a bullish intra-quarter trend, supported by rising prices from January through March. This price movement reflects higher inventories prompting suppliers to clear stocks at elevated levels amid currency fluctuations, inflationary input costs, and transportation expenses. Despite some anticipated consumption drops, the market outlook remains cautiously bullish with stable trading dynamics expected near term.
Europe
The European rapeseed oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by sustained demand driven primarily by the biofuel sector, underpinned by stringent renewable energy policies and elevated crude oil prices. Supply constraints persist due to limited domestic production in key regions, tightening availability and supporting elevated price levels. Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker euro against the U.S. dollar, enhance export competitiveness, stimulating import demand from global markets. Inventory management remains a focal point, with traders balancing stockpiling against anticipated price rebounds amid broader economic pressures such as rising energy and transportation costs. In Germany, rapeseed oil prices increased by 5.36% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Monthly prices exhibited a largely flat intra-quarter trend, reflecting steady demand from the biofuel and downstream sectors alongside constrained domestic supply. The market remains cautiously bullish, supported by EU policy-driven demand and currency advantages, though tempered by expectations of modest price corrections and inventory adjustments in the near term.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the U.S. rapeseed oil market exhibited notable volatility, shaped by dynamic supply-demand factors and macroeconomic conditions. October saw a sharp price increase driven by reduced rapeseed production due to adverse weather, robust global demand, and rising freight and refining costs.
A weaker U.S. dollar and increased export demand from Europe and Asia further tightened domestic supply. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.5, reflecting easing contraction, despite hurricane-related supply chain disruptions and market uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election. In November, prices eased considerably as increased imports from Canada and Australia alleviated supply pressures, while high domestic inventories and reduced biofuel demand from fluctuating crude oil prices weighed on the market. However, improved coastal pickup volumes provided slight support.
By December, prices declined further due to an unexpectedly large global rapeseed harvest, shifting preferences toward alternative oils, and reduced biofuel sector demand. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower logistics costs amplified competitive imports, while an economic slowdown weakened consumption. As a result with the quarter ending in December 2024 was assembled at USD1212/MT CFR Chicago.
Asia Pacific
Throughout Q4 of 2024, India's rapeseed oil market experienced notable fluctuations driven by seasonal dynamics, domestic demand, and global influences. In October, rapeseed oil prices surged due to festive-driven consumption, strategic stockpiling by oil mills, and a supply crunch caused by increased demand for domestic oilseeds. Farmers withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices, supported by favorable monsoon conditions boosting crop forecasts. This trend continued until the middle of the quarter, i.e., in November 2024. Rising export demand, particularly to Southeast Asia, coupled with the depreciation of the Indian Rupee, further bolstered prices, despite competition from the U.S. and European markets. Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing sector demonstrated robust performance, with the PMI rising to 57.5, driven by strong domestic and international demand, despite inflationary pressures on input costs. By December, rapeseed oil prices experienced a significant decline, attributed to improved seasonal crop yields, reduced post-festive demand, and lower international prices due to strong harvests in Canada and Australia. This decline was further exacerbated by oversupply conditions as traders adjusted stock levels, reflecting the volatile interplay of domestic and global market forces shaping pricing trends in India with values assembled at USD 1568.12/MT Ex Jaipur.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the European rapeseed oil market, particularly in Germany, experienced significant fluctuations in prices due to multiple interrelated factors. In October, rapeseed oil export prices surged sharply, driven by a substantial decline in EU rapeseed production for the 2024-2025 period, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions that led to a global production shortfall of approximately 1.3 million tons. Trade restrictions with Russia and Belarus, alongside reduced Ukrainian exports, further strained Europe's ability to compensate for the production loss, tightening supply and pushing up prices. Simultaneously, global demand for rapeseed oil increased, as competition from alternative vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil, which were also facing supply challenges, intensified. November saw continued upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices in Germany, fuelled by reduced local production, tight supply chains, and robust demand from both the food and biodiesel sectors. The low harvests, compounded by reduced sunflower seed yields, made rapeseed oil an even more critical commodity. Additionally, strong international demand, especially from neighboring countries, led to price hikes. However, by December, the German rapeseed oil market saw a slight price decline, a natural correction after a period of sustained increases, largely driven by market consolidation, weakened demand from end-users in Europe, and the depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Increased competition from Canadian canola and softer global vegetable oil prices also contributed to this stabilization, underscoring the market's resilience amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, North America's rapeseed oil market faced a complex set of challenges shaped by global and regional dynamics. While the European market saw a notable price surge, North America experienced a more moderate trend. Supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and logistical delays impacted the market, but stable domestic production helped mitigate the effects.
Early in the quarter, rapeseed oil prices rose sharply due to heightened demand from end-user sectors and global supply chain issues, which increased shipping costs and extended lead times. Suppliers, benefiting from moderate inventories, raised prices to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. Currency fluctuations, particularly the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, further fueled this upward trend through August.
However, by September, a significant price drop occurred, marking an overall downward trend for the quarter. Weakened global demand for U.S. rapeseed oil, combined with increased competition from alternative oils like soybean and palm oil, contributed to the decline. Economic uncertainties and inflation in key importing regions further dampened demand, with buyers opting for more competitively priced alternatives. By the end of the quarter, North American rapeseed oil prices stabilized at around USD 1,187 per metric ton, reflecting a modest decline from the previous quarter.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward toward the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable surge in Rapeseed Oil prices, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. The market dynamics were primarily influenced by supply constraints, heightened demand from key industries, and increased import costs due to currency devaluation. The tight supply conditions, coupled with robust demand, led to aggressive inventory building by stockists, further exacerbating price pressures. Additionally, factors such as rising energy costs impacting production, delays in processing, and escalating freight expenses contributed to the overall price escalations. However, the agricultural sector's inability to immediately match the sudden spike in demand created a short-term supply crunch. As a result, the impact of these market dynamics ultimately trickled down to consumers. Manufacturers, faced with higher procurement costs and limited import options, were forced to pass on these expenses to end-users. As a result, retail prices for Rapeseed oil saw a significant increase. This price rise was a clear manifestation of the supply-demand imbalance that favored domestic production, a direct consequence of the government's policy decision to hike import duties on edible oils. Overall, the quarter recorded a substantial 13% increase from the previous quarter. Ending the quarter on a high note, the latest price stood at USD 1634.69/MT of Rapeseed Oil Ex Jaipur in India, reflecting a continuously positive pricing trend throughout the period.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European rapeseed oil market experienced a notable downturn due to several interconnected factors. Initially, July saw a surge in prices, particularly in Germany, driven by heightened purchasing activity and increased export demand. However, weather disruptions in key producing regions such as France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine negatively affected winter rapeseed crops, reducing yields and market availability, which contributed to the price rise. As August commenced, the market shifted towards a significant downward trend, which persisted until the latter weeks of September. This decline was driven by weakened demand from end-users, who adopted a more cautious approach to procurement amid ongoing market uncertainties. Despite adequate global supply levels, trading activity diminished, and preferences among manufacturers and suppliers began to shift towards alternative edible oils, further exerting downward pressure on rapeseed oil prices. By the end of the quarter, prices had dropped significantly, closing at USD 1,030 per metric ton (FOB Hamburg). This trend highlighted the complex interplay of economic dynamics, currency fluctuations, and agricultural conditions, creating challenges for the rapeseed oil supply chain. The overall sentiment in Germany reflected a bearish pricing environment, with continuous price declines throughout the quarter. This period underscored the need for adaptive strategies to navigate the volatile market landscape.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the U.S., the Rapeseed oil market is poised for significant shifts, mirroring trends observed in the European, particularly the German market. The second quarter of 2024 reveals a dynamic landscape characterized by pronounced price volatility and distinct market behaviors. April 2024 began with robust momentum, marked by rising prices due to insufficient inventory and heightened regional demand. Suppliers grappled with product availability issues, though reduced freight costs provided some relief, enabling higher import quotes despite the persistent appreciation of the dollar against other currencies.
While May 2024 experienced a substantial price decline, attributed to waning international demand and heightened competition from alternative edible oils. Economic uncertainties and evolving consumer preferences posed challenges, leading to low to moderate downstream consumption in end-users such as food, and other industrial sectors. Consequently, procurement activities diminished, resulting in a general higher stocking up of inventory levels among merchants.
However, as June 2024 commenced, it marked a resurgence in the market, concluding the quarter on a high note. Rapeseed oil prices saw a steady rise, driven by increased global demand from end-users and limited availability from key producing nations. Seasonal factors, adverse weather conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties exacerbated supply constraints, leading to price volatility. The robust demand from the food and biodiesel industries further pushed prices higher. Market dynamics throughout the quarter were shaped by decreased rapeseed production in the Philippines, ongoing production and supply delays, and strategic adjustments by market participants to mitigate risk and sustain stability. As a result, the quarter culminated with traders actively offloading stocked inventories at higher costs, reflecting a generally positive market sentiment despite the mid-quarter dip.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant upward trajectory in Rapeseed Oil prices across the APAC region, driven by a confluence of critical factors, including adverse weather conditions and tightening supply chains. Production challenges were notable, with unseasonal rainfall and heatwaves severely disrupting crop yields and reducing output. Concurrently, heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly the biodiesel and food industries, sustained the upward pressure on prices. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international trade further constrained the availability of rapeseed oil, leading to significant supply bottlenecks. This trend was particularly acute in India, which experienced the most pronounced price changes. The Indian rapeseed oil market saw substantial price increases during Q2, driven by increased domestic consumption and reduced output. Seasonal factors played a significant role, with summer heat intensifying stress on rapeseed crops and impacting yields. Overall, the prices in Q2 2024 surged by 9% from the previous quarter, reflecting an accelerated demand against a backdrop of constrained supply. The latest quarter-ending price for Rapeseed Oil in India stands at USD 1415.47/MT. The pricing environment throughout this quarter has been distinctly positive from a market perspective, driven by sustained demand and constrained supply dynamics, without any reported plant shutdowns affecting market stability.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, rapeseed oil prices in Europe experienced a distinct upward trajectory, driven by several notable factors. Focusing on Germany, the nation witnessed the most pronounced price changes within the region. Seasonal factors, including the onset of harvesting and intermittent disruptions in planting activities due to unfavorable weather, contributed to significant price volatility. The overall sentiment in Germany was one of sustained increase, reflecting an optimistic pricing environment. A price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 5% rise, underscoring the persistent upward momentum. Overall, the quarter was marked by tightening supply dynamics, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions in key production regions, which led to lower-than-expected yields and subsequent price increases. This supply constraint was further amplified by geopolitical uncertainties, which complicated trade logistics and heightened freight charges. Supporting to this further, the robust demand from both the food and biodiesel industries also played a significant role in pushing prices higher, as end-users increasingly sought rapeseed oil to meet their production needs. Additionally, the continuous appreciation of other vegetable oils provided ancillary support, creating a ripple effect across the market. As a result, compared to the previous quarter, prices climbed by an additional 1%, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1038/MT FOB Hamburg. Overall, the pricing environment for rapeseed oil in Germany during Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, driven by a confluence of supply-side constraints, heightened demand, and external market influences.
