For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Red Phosphorus Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increasing production costs.
• Production costs increased due to a 3.0% CPI rise in September 2025 and a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025.
• Energy, transportation, and raw material costs for chemical manufacturers also increased in Q3 2025.
• Demand faced headwinds from a marginal 0.1% industrial production increase in September 2025.
• Weakening consumer confidence (94.2 in September 2025) offset positive signals from a 4.3% unemployment rate.
• Robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025, supported some consumer-driven Red Phosphorus applications.
• Global overcapacity and declining foreign orders for chemicals in Q3 2025 exerted downward pressure on prices.
• The Red Phosphorus price forecast suggests continued upward pressure from costs, tempered by weak industrial demand.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in North America?
• Increased input and raw material costs, alongside rising energy and labor expenses in Q3 2025.
• Weak overall new orders for chemicals and softening demand in US nylon markets during Q3 2025.
• Global overcapacity and declining foreign orders for chemicals disrupted trade flows in Q3 2025.
APAC
• In China, the Red Phosphorus Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by strengthening feedstock and energy costs.
• Red Phosphorus production costs increased in Q3 2025 due to surging industrial electricity consumption and rising white phosphorus prices.
• Demand for Red Phosphorus was bolstered by robust automotive sales and exports, particularly new energy vehicles, in Q3 2025.
• Industrial production expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating increased manufacturing activity.
• Despite a contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025, chemical production surged for plastics and fibers.
• Consumer price index decreased by -0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting weak consumer demand.
• Consumer confidence at 89.6 in September 2025 suggested pessimism, limiting Red Phosphorus demand in consumer goods.
• Producer price deflation of -2.3% year-on-year in September 2025 indicated weak industrial demand, impacting pricing.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Rising white phosphorus feedstock costs and surging industrial electricity consumption drove production expenses.
• Robust automotive growth and increased chemical production supported demand, offsetting some bearish macroeconomic signals.
• Persistent overcapacity and weak consumer confidence in September 2025 limited significant price gains.
Europe
• In Germany, the Red Phosphorus Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices.
• Red Phosphorus production costs saw downward pressure from a 1.7% decrease in producer prices in September 2025.
• Demand for Red Phosphorus faced headwinds from a 1.0% decline in industrial production in September 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating a slowdown in key Red Phosphorus consuming sectors.
• European new passenger vehicle registrations strengthened in September 2025, offering some support for demand.
• Phosphate rock costs in Europe edged up marginally in Q3 2025, impacting Red Phosphorus production expenses.
• European natural gas prices softened year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to reduced energy input costs.
• Germany's CPI rose 2.4% in September 2025, suggesting broader inflationary pressures on overall costs.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices decreased by 1.7% in September 2025, reducing Red Phosphorus manufacturing costs.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, dampening overall demand for the chemical.
• Phosphate rock costs marginally increased in Q3 2025, while natural gas prices softened year-on-year.
