For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Red Phosphorus Prices in APAC
- In China, the Red Phosphorus Price Index faced downward pressure in Q4 2025, influenced by producer-level deflation of -1.9% in December 2025.
- In Asia, the Red Phosphorus Price was assessed at USD 6750 /MT in Q4 2025.
- Red Phosphorus production costs increased in Q4 2025 due to firm phosphate ore prices and surging petroleum coke costs.
- Demand for Red Phosphorus received robust support from the new energy sector throughout Q4 2025.
- China's industrial production grew 5.2% in December 2025, indicating increased demand for industrial inputs.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in December 2025, reflecting growth in overall manufacturing activity.
- Consumer demand remained weak in December 2025, with CPI at 0.8% and retail sales growth at 0.9%.
- Raw material inventories in the manufacturing industry declined in October and November 2025, narrowing in December.
- China's policy to suspend phosphate exports until August 2026 prioritized domestic industrial applications.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Producer-level deflation, -1.9% PPI in December 2025, exerted downward pressure.
- Weak consumer demand, 0.8% CPI and 0.9% retail sales in December 2025, limited price upside.
- Firm phosphate ore prices and surging petroleum coke costs in Q4 2025 increased production expenses.
Red Phosphorus Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Red Phosphorus Price Index rose in Q4 2025, influenced by rising production costs.
- Red Phosphorus production costs increased in Q4 2025, driven by firm phosphate ore and soaring sulfur costs.
- US industrial electricity prices increased in November 2025, adding to Red Phosphorus manufacturing expenses.
- Demand for Red Phosphorus expanded in Q4 2025, supported by a 2.0% year-over-year rise in industrial production.
- The semiconductor industry's robust growth in data centers during Q4 2025 boosted Red Phosphorus demand.
- Consumer spending, with retail sales up 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, indirectly supported Red Phosphorus demand.
- A 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025 pressured Red Phosphorus operational and raw material costs upward.
- The 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025 indicated a strong labor market, supporting consumer spending and demand.
- The Red Phosphorus Price Index is forecast to remain firm, influenced by supply tightness and elevated input costs.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in December 2025 in North America?
- Soaring sulfur raw material costs in Q4 2025 increased Red Phosphorus production expenses.
- Upstream phosphate ore prices remained firm in Q4 2025, raising Red Phosphorus input costs.
- US industrial electricity prices rose in November 2025, impacting Red Phosphorus manufacturing costs.
Red Phosphorus Prices in Europe
- In Germany, Red Phosphorus prices fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by contracting manufacturing activity in December 2025.
- Red Phosphorus production costs remained elevated in October 2025, driven by persistent high energy and raw material expenses.
- Demand for Red Phosphorus was weak in October 2025, as overall chemical product demand remained low.
- The Red Phosphorus demand outlook was bearish in December 2025, with consumer confidence declining to a -17.5 index.
- Industrial production in Germany expanded by 0.8% year-over-year in October 2025, slightly boosting Red Phosphorus demand.
- Rising import pressures on the German chemical industry in October 2025 challenged the Red Phosphorus market.
- Electronics production jumped in October 2025, providing a positive signal for Red Phosphorus demand in that sector.
- The 6.2% unemployment rate in December 2025 weakened the labor market, impacting consumer spending and Red Phosphorus demand.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Manufacturing activity contracted in December 2025, reducing industrial demand for Red Phosphorus.
- Consumer confidence dropped to a -17.5 index in December 2025, suppressing demand for end products.
- Producer prices declined by 2.5% year-over-year in December 2025, easing costs for downstream industries.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the United States, the Red Phosphorus Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by increasing production costs.
- Production costs increased due to a 3.0% CPI rise in September 2025 and a 2.6% PPI increase in August 2025.
- Energy, transportation, and raw material costs for chemical manufacturers also increased in Q3 2025.
- Demand faced headwinds from a marginal 0.1% industrial production increase in September 2025.
- Weakening consumer confidence (94.2 in September 2025) offset positive signals from a 4.3% unemployment rate.
- Robust retail sales, up 5.42% in September 2025, supported some consumer-driven Red Phosphorus applications.
- Global overcapacity and declining foreign orders for chemicals in Q3 2025 exerted downward pressure on prices.
- The Red Phosphorus price forecast suggests continued upward pressure from costs, tempered by weak industrial demand.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in North America?
- Increased input and raw material costs, alongside rising energy and labor expenses in Q3 2025.
- Weak overall new orders for chemicals and softening demand in US nylon markets during Q3 2025.
- Global overcapacity and declining foreign orders for chemicals disrupted trade flows in Q3 2025.
APAC
- In China, the Red Phosphorus Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by strengthening feedstock and energy costs.
- Red Phosphorus production costs increased in Q3 2025 due to surging industrial electricity consumption and rising white phosphorus prices.
- Demand for Red Phosphorus was bolstered by robust automotive sales and exports, particularly new energy vehicles, in Q3 2025.
- Industrial production expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating increased manufacturing activity.
- Despite a contracting Manufacturing Index in September 2025, chemical production surged for plastics and fibers.
- Consumer price index decreased by -0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting weak consumer demand.
- Consumer confidence at 89.6 in September 2025 suggested pessimism, limiting Red Phosphorus demand in consumer goods.
- Producer price deflation of -2.3% year-on-year in September 2025 indicated weak industrial demand, impacting pricing.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Rising white phosphorus feedstock costs and surging industrial electricity consumption drove production expenses.
- Robust automotive growth and increased chemical production supported demand, offsetting some bearish macroeconomic signals.
- Persistent overcapacity and weak consumer confidence in September 2025 limited significant price gains.
Europe
- In Germany, the Red Phosphorus Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices.
- Red Phosphorus production costs saw downward pressure from a 1.7% decrease in producer prices in September 2025.
- Demand for Red Phosphorus faced headwinds from a 1.0% decline in industrial production in September 2025.
- The Manufacturing Index contracted in Q3 2025, indicating a slowdown in key Red Phosphorus consuming sectors.
- European new passenger vehicle registrations strengthened in September 2025, offering some support for demand.
- Phosphate rock costs in Europe edged up marginally in Q3 2025, impacting Red Phosphorus production expenses.
- European natural gas prices softened year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to reduced energy input costs.
- Germany's CPI rose 2.4% in September 2025, suggesting broader inflationary pressures on overall costs.
Why did the price of Red Phosphorus change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices decreased by 1.7% in September 2025, reducing Red Phosphorus manufacturing costs.
- Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025, dampening overall demand for the chemical.
- Phosphate rock costs marginally increased in Q3 2025, while natural gas prices softened year-on-year.
