For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by rising producer input costs.
• Rice production costs increased, evidenced by a 2.6% year-over-year rise in Producer Price Index during August 2025.
• Demand for rice was supported by a robust 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, indicating more cautious spending on food items.
• The Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, impacting household purchasing power for rice.
• Industrial production showed a marginal 0.1% year-over-year increase in September 2025, signaling slower economic activity.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% in September 2025, supporting overall consumer income and spending.
• Rice price forecast suggests continued upward pressure due to persistent input cost inflation in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in North America?
• Producer input costs for rice increased, with Producer Price Index rising 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025.
• Robust retail sales, up 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, bolstered consumer demand for rice.
• Weakening consumer confidence in September 2025 led to more cautious spending on food products.
Europe
• In Germany, the Rice Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices and subdued industrial demand.
• Rice production costs decreased in September 2025, driven by a 1.7% year-over-year decline in producer prices.
• Industrial demand for rice derivatives is bearish due to contracting manufacturing activity and 1.0% industrial output decline in Q3 2025.
• Overall consumer demand for Rice remained stable in September 2025, with retail sales increasing a modest 0.2% year-over-year.
• General inflation (2.4% CPI, September 2025) increased living costs, potentially reducing real disposable income.
• High unemployment (6.3%, September 2025) constrained household disposable income, impacting premium rice varieties.
• Stabilizing consumer confidence in Q3 2025 offers cautious support for general food spending, including basic rice varieties.
• Rice Price Index forecast suggests continued downward pressure from weak industrial demand and lower input costs.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Producer prices declined 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, reducing operational costs for rice processors.
• Contracting manufacturing activity and 1.0% industrial output decline in Q3 2025 dampened industrial rice demand.
• Despite 2.4% CPI inflation in September 2025, stable 0.2% retail sales limited price pass-through to consumers.
APAC
• In China, the Rice Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to deflationary pressures and increased domestic supply.
• Rice production costs rose in Q3 2025, driven by surging global fertilizer and phosphate feedstock prices.
• The Rice Price Index faced downward pressure from -0.3% CPI and -2.3% PPI in September 2025.
• Rice demand outlook is mixed; 3.0% retail sales growth offset by pessimistic consumer confidence.
• Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, impacting industrial demand, despite 6.5% industrial production growth.
• China maintained elevated rice reserves; global importer stocks declined, and Pakistan imports surged.
• Consumer preferences shifted towards healthier rice varieties; e-commerce demand for food surged in 2025.
• Government commitment to boosting domestic grain supply and stable summer grain harvest supported ample availability.
• Agricultural energy costs influenced by China's market-based power rates, with strong renewable electricity generation.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in China?
• Deflationary pressures (CPI -0.3%, PPI -2.3% in September 2025) dampened rice prices.
• Increased domestic early rice output and surging Pakistan imports contributed to ample supply.
• Rising fertilizer costs provided upward pressure, but pessimistic consumer confidence offset demand.
