For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Rice Prices in North America
- In United States, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by tightening domestic supply.
- The Rice Production Cost Trend increased in March 2026 as producer prices rose 4.0% year-over-year, elevating expenses.
- The Rice Demand Outlook remained robust in January 2026 for imported aromatic varieties despite weakened export demand.
- A 3.3% year-over-year consumer price inflation in March 2026 shifted budgets toward affordable staples like rice.
- Retail sales grew 4.0% year-over-year in March 2026, sustaining consistent off-the-shelf purchasing for packaged rice products.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, supporting steady industrial activity and processed rice derivative production.
- Industrial production grew 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026, sustaining baseline demand for energy-intensive rice milling processes.
- A 4.3% unemployment rate and 91.8 consumer confidence index in March 2026 sustained baseline household rice consumption.
- The Rice Price Forecast trended upward in February 2026 as total domestic supply contracted following reduced imports.
Why did the price of Rice change in March 2026 in North America?
- Diesel fuel costs surged in March 2026, directly elevating agricultural operational and transportation expenses for rice.
- Domestic rice supply tightened due to reduced harvested acreage during January 2026, constraining available market volumes.
- Natural gas feedstock costs spiked following severe winter weather in February 2026, increasing rice drying costs.
Rice Prices in APAC
- In China, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by surging agricultural production costs.
- The Rice Production Cost Trend increased as the PPI rose 0.5% year-over-year in March 2026.
- The Rice Demand Outlook stabilized as CPI increased 1.0% and unemployment reached 5.4% in March 2026.
- Industrial Production grew 5.7% year-over-year and the Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, boosting industrial processing.
- Retail sales grew 1.7% in March 2026, while consumer confidence hit 91.6 in February 2026, dampening demand.
- Sulphur fertilizer feedstock costs for rice surged in March 2026 following tightened government export quotas.
- Domestic rice inventories remained robust due to government stockholding programs and ample availability in February 2026.
- The Rice Price Forecast reflected upward pressure as African demand expanded export volumes in January 2026.
Why did the price of Rice change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Sulphur fertilizer feedstock costs surged in March 2026, directly increasing overall agricultural production expenses.
- Domestic fertilizer feedstock supply tightened significantly following government export suspensions implemented in March 2026.
- The PPI rose 0.5% year-over-year in March 2026, reflecting higher costs across the supply chain.
Rice Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by surging natural gas costs.
- Retail sales grew 0.7% in February 2026, while March 2026 CPI reached 2.7%, elevating retail Rice prices.
- Industrial production remained flat at 0.0% in February 2026, and March 2026 PPI declined by 0.2%.
- Unemployment stayed at 4.2% in February 2026, while March 2026 consumer confidence hit -24.7, shifting Rice demand.
- The Manufacturing Index expanded in March 2026, which supported commercial Rice demand despite broader economic pressures.
- The Rice Production Cost Trend surged in March 2026 as natural gas benchmark prices reached record highs.
- The Rice Demand Outlook stabilized in March 2026, supported by favorable winter crop conditions across the region.
- The Rice Price Forecast remained elevated in March 2026 after ammonia supply chains tightened from shipping halts.
Why did the price of Rice change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Natural gas feedstock costs spiked in March 2026 following severe Middle East geopolitical shipping disruptions.
- Consumer inflation reached 2.7% in March 2026, pushing retail packaged Rice prices significantly higher domestically.
- Global ammonia supply chains tightened in March 2026, increasing upstream agricultural input costs for Rice.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Rice Prices in North America
- In the United States, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 to 140 USD/MT, due to rising production costs and robust demand.
- Rice production costs increased, influenced by a 3.0% year-over-year rise in PPI during November 2025.
- Overall input costs for rice cultivation climbed, with CPI increasing 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025.
- Rice demand outlook strengthened as retail sales grew 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025.
- Industrial rice demand increased, supported by a 2.0% year-over-year rise in industrial production in December 2025.
- A 4.4% unemployment rate in December 2025 sustained consumer purchasing power, bolstering overall rice demand.
- Consumer confidence, at 89.1 in December 2025, moderately supported spending on rice products.
- The Rice Price Index reflected upward pressure from elevated input costs and sustained consumer and industrial demand.
Why did the price of Rice change in December 2025 in North America?
- Production costs rose, indicated by a 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025.
- Robust consumer spending, with retail sales up 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, boosted demand.
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, driving demand for industrial rice applications.
Rice Prices in APAC
- In China, the Rice Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by weak inflationary pressures in December 2025.
- Rice production costs were impacted by surging sulfur and sulfuric acid costs in November 2025 for fertilizers.
- The Rice demand outlook was supported by an expanding Manufacturing Index in December 2025.
- Industrial production rose by 5.2% in December 2025, boosting industrial applications for rice.
- Grain consumption in China experienced a slight increase during 2025, supporting overall rice demand.
- China's early rice output increased in 2025, contributing to higher domestic supply levels.
- Retail sales growth was subdued at 0.9% in December 2025, indicating weaker consumer spending.
- Favorable weather conditions and strengthened policy support benefited agriculture during 2025, aiding output.
- Potash prices remained flat in Q4 2025, impacting agricultural input costs for rice production.
Why did the price of Rice change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Low CPI of 0.8% and negative PPI of -1.9% in December 2025 indicated deflationary pressures.
- Subdued retail sales growth of 0.9% in December 2025 impacted consumer demand for rice products.
- Increased early rice output in 2025 contributed to higher domestic supply, influencing prices.
Rice Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Rice Price Index rose in Q4 2025, influenced by 1.8% general inflationary pressures in December 2025.
- Rice production costs were influenced by elevated energy prices in 2025, despite producer prices declining 2.5% in December 2025.
- Rice demand was mixed; retail sales grew 1.1% in November 2025, yet consumer confidence declined in December 2025.
- Industrial demand for rice slightly increased, supported by 0.8% growth in industrial production in October 2025.
- Contracting Manufacturing Index in December 2025 indicated overall economic slowdown, pressuring the Rice Price Index.
- Consumer spending on food was supported by retail sales growth in November 2025, despite 6.2% unemployment in December 2025.
- Significant consumer pessimism, reflected by the consumer confidence index in December 2025, dampened household food consumption.
Why did the price of Rice change in December 2025 in Europe?
- General inflationary pressures, with CPI at 1.8% in December 2025, supported higher rice prices.
- Producer prices declined 2.5% in December 2025, reducing cost-push pressure on rice-based products.
- Contracting manufacturing activity in December 2025 dampened industrial demand and overall market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In United States, the Rice Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by rising producer input costs.
- Rice production costs increased, evidenced by a 2.6% year-over-year rise in Producer Price Index during August 2025.
- Demand for rice was supported by a robust 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, indicating more cautious spending on food items.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025, impacting household purchasing power for rice.
- Industrial production showed a marginal 0.1% year-over-year increase in September 2025, signaling slower economic activity.
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% in September 2025, supporting overall consumer income and spending.
- Rice price forecast suggests continued upward pressure due to persistent input cost inflation in Q3 2025.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in North America?
- Producer input costs for rice increased, with Producer Price Index rising 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025.
- Robust retail sales, up 5.42% year-over-year in September 2025, bolstered consumer demand for rice.
- Weakening consumer confidence in September 2025 led to more cautious spending on food products.
Europe
- In Germany, the Rice Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by lower producer prices and subdued industrial demand.
- Rice production costs decreased in September 2025, driven by a 1.7% year-over-year decline in producer prices.
- Industrial demand for rice derivatives is bearish due to contracting manufacturing activity and 1.0% industrial output decline in Q3 2025.
- Overall consumer demand for Rice remained stable in September 2025, with retail sales increasing a modest 0.2% year-over-year.
- General inflation (2.4% CPI, September 2025) increased living costs, potentially reducing real disposable income.
- High unemployment (6.3%, September 2025) constrained household disposable income, impacting premium rice varieties.
- Stabilizing consumer confidence in Q3 2025 offers cautious support for general food spending, including basic rice varieties.
- Rice Price Index forecast suggests continued downward pressure from weak industrial demand and lower input costs.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined 1.7% year-over-year in September 2025, reducing operational costs for rice processors.
- Contracting manufacturing activity and 1.0% industrial output decline in Q3 2025 dampened industrial rice demand.
- Despite 2.4% CPI inflation in September 2025, stable 0.2% retail sales limited price pass-through to consumers.
APAC
- In China, the Rice Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to deflationary pressures and increased domestic supply.
- Rice production costs rose in Q3 2025, driven by surging global fertilizer and phosphate feedstock prices.
- The Rice Price Index faced downward pressure from -0.3% CPI and -2.3% PPI in September 2025.
- Rice demand outlook is mixed; 3.0% retail sales growth offset by pessimistic consumer confidence.
- Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, impacting industrial demand, despite 6.5% industrial production growth.
- China maintained elevated rice reserves; global importer stocks declined, and Pakistan imports surged.
- Consumer preferences shifted towards healthier rice varieties; e-commerce demand for food surged in 2025.
- Government commitment to boosting domestic grain supply and stable summer grain harvest supported ample availability.
- Agricultural energy costs influenced by China's market-based power rates, with strong renewable electricity generation.
Why did the price of Rice change in September 2025 in China?
- Deflationary pressures (CPI -0.3%, PPI -2.3% in September 2025) dampened rice prices.
- Increased domestic early rice output and surging Pakistan imports contributed to ample supply.
- Rising fertilizer costs provided upward pressure, but pessimistic consumer confidence offset demand.
