For the Quarter Ending December 2025
Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Prices in North America
- United States SMP Price Index rose in Q4 2025, fueled by resurgent exports and tight spot inventories in October.
- SMP production costs rose due to a 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase in December 2025, impacting raw materials.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year in November 2025, indicating higher input costs for manufacturers.
- SMP demand outlook was bullish, supported by a 2.0% year-over-year industrial production increase in December 2025.
- Retail sales increased 3.3% year-over-year in November 2025, bolstering consumer demand for SMP-containing products.
- U.S. dairy exports, including NFDM/SMP, showed a resurgence in October 2025, strengthening trade flows.
- Skim milk powder production declined notably in October 2025, leading to tighter spot market inventories.
- Farm-level milk prices faced downward pressure in Q4 2025, while natural gas prices fluctuated during the quarter.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in December 2025 in North America?
- Industrial production increased 2.0% year-over-year in December 2025, strengthening demand for SMP.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, elevating overall production costs.
- Natural gas prices strengthened in December 2025, contributing to higher energy costs for processing..
Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Prices in APAC
- In China, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index declined quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, influenced by weak consumer demand.
- SMP production costs decreased in Q4 2025 as China's farmgate raw milk prices continued a weakening trend.
- Demand for SMP faced headwinds in Q4 2025 due to struggling consumer confidence and sluggish foodservice channels.
- Industrial demand for SMP showed resilience in December 2025, with industrial production growing 5.2% year-on-year.
- China's dairy market experienced saturation with excess fluid milk throughout 2025, impacting SMP inventory management.
- Weak consumer inflation, with CPI at 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicated subdued purchasing power.
- Producer prices for industrial products weakened by -1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, signaling a challenging pricing environment.
- Retail sales growth was low at 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting weak consumer spending.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer spending, with retail sales at 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, dampened SMP demand.
- Declining farmgate raw milk prices and negative PPI (-1.9% year-on-year in December 2025) reduced production costs.
- Excess fluid milk in China's dairy market throughout 2025 contributed to oversupply, impacting SMP pricing.
Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Prices in Europe
- In Germany, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 and settled at USD 2318/MT, influenced by ample milk availability.
- SMP production costs declined in Q4 2025, as raw milk prices decreased in October and November 2025.
- SMP demand was dampened by contracting manufacturing activity in December 2025.
- Consumer confidence remained significantly negative at -17.5 in December 2025, contributing to bearish SMP demand.
- Ample EU milk availability in Q4 2025 contributed to softening commodity prices for SMP.
- Industrial producer prices declined 2.5% year-over-year in December 2025, pressuring SMP prices downward.
- The strong euro in Q4 2025 tempered export demand for European SMP globally.
- Moderate inflation at 1.8% CPI in December 2025, coupled with 6.2% unemployment, impacted consumer purchasing power.
- Industrial production grew 0.8% in October 2025, and retail sales increased 1.1% in November 2025, stabilizing some demand.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Producer prices declined 2.5% year-over-year in December 2025, reflecting broader industrial price pressure.
- Ample milk availability in the EU during Q4 2025 softened overall dairy commodity prices.
- Contracting manufacturing activity in December 2025 reduced industrial demand for SMP
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the United States, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by ample inventories and surging milk output.
- SMP production costs fell in Q3 2025, driven by declining raw milk and dairy feed expenses in July 2025.
- US milk production surged in Q3 2025, contributing to ample nonfat dry milk inventories, while exports declined notably in July.
- The Consumer Price Index increased 3.0 percent in September 2025, eroding purchasing power, while the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent.
- The Producer Price Index rose 2.6 percent in August 2025, indicating rising input costs for SMP manufacturers.
- Industrial production grew only 0.1 percent in September 2025, indicating sluggish activity and weaker industrial demand.
- Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, signaling increased caution in discretionary spending on dairy items.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in North America?
- Ample nonfat dry milk inventories and surging US milk production in Q3 2025 pressured SMP prices.
- Declining raw milk costs and lower dairy feed expenses in July 2025 reduced SMP production costs.
- Subdued retail and food service dairy demand, plus declining SMP exports in July 2025, weakened market demand.
APAC
- In China, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by a -0.3% CPI in September.
- SMP demand outlook is bearish; consumer confidence was 89.6 in September 2025.
- Contracting manufacturing activity in September 2025 impacted industrial SMP consumption.
- SMP production costs trended lower in early Q3 2025, due to declining raw milk prices.
- The -2.3% PPI in September 2025 pressured the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index.
- Domestic demand for SMP remained soft in Q3 2025, due to persistent property downturn.
- Consumer spending softened in September 2025, despite retail sales increasing 3.0% year-on-year.
- China's milk output increased slightly in Q1-Q3 2025, affecting raw material availability.
- Government policy signaled monetary support and infrastructure boosts in late July 2025.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Weak consumer demand, with CPI at -0.3% in September 2025, reduced dairy product purchasing.
- Contracting manufacturing activity in September 2025 lowered industrial Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) consumption.
- Declining raw milk prices in early Q3 2025 reduced production costs, pressuring prices downward.
Europe
- In Germany, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining global dairy powder prices.
- SMP production costs were pressured by elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025, despite a -1.7% PPI decrease in September.
- German consumer spending remained subdued in Q3 2025, with a 2.4% CPI increase in September, impacting SMP demand.
- Industrial production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating weakened industrial demand for SMP.
- Germany's Manufacturing Index showed a contracting trend in Q3 2025, signaling reduced industrial output affecting SMP demand.
- Retail sales increased by 0.2% year-over-year in September 2025, offering modest support for consumer-facing SMP products.
- The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, suggesting cautious consumer behavior for SMP end-products.
- Global dairy powder prices trended downward in Q3 2025, reducing EU SMP export competitiveness.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Global dairy powder prices trended downward in Q3 2025, impacting EU export competitiveness for SMP.
- Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025; a contracting Manufacturing Index curbed SMP demand.
- Elevated raw milk prices and high industrial energy costs in Q3 2025 pressured SMP production expenses.
