For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the United States, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by ample inventories and surging milk output.
• SMP production costs fell in Q3 2025, driven by declining raw milk and dairy feed expenses in July 2025.
• US milk production surged in Q3 2025, contributing to ample nonfat dry milk inventories, while exports declined notably in July.
• The Consumer Price Index increased 3.0 percent in September 2025, eroding purchasing power, while the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent.
• The Producer Price Index rose 2.6 percent in August 2025, indicating rising input costs for SMP manufacturers.
• Industrial production grew only 0.1 percent in September 2025, indicating sluggish activity and weaker industrial demand.
• Consumer confidence declined to 94.2 in September 2025, signaling increased caution in discretionary spending on dairy items.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in North America?
• Ample nonfat dry milk inventories and surging US milk production in Q3 2025 pressured SMP prices.
• Declining raw milk costs and lower dairy feed expenses in July 2025 reduced SMP production costs.
• Subdued retail and food service dairy demand, plus declining SMP exports in July 2025, weakened market demand.
APAC
• In China, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell in Q3 2025, influenced by a -0.3% CPI in September.
• SMP demand outlook is bearish; consumer confidence was 89.6 in September 2025.
• Contracting manufacturing activity in September 2025 impacted industrial SMP consumption.
• SMP production costs trended lower in early Q3 2025, due to declining raw milk prices.
• The -2.3% PPI in September 2025 pressured the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index.
• Domestic demand for SMP remained soft in Q3 2025, due to persistent property downturn.
• Consumer spending softened in September 2025, despite retail sales increasing 3.0% year-on-year.
• China's milk output increased slightly in Q1-Q3 2025, affecting raw material availability.
• Government policy signaled monetary support and infrastructure boosts in late July 2025.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Weak consumer demand, with CPI at -0.3% in September 2025, reduced dairy product purchasing.
• Contracting manufacturing activity in September 2025 lowered industrial Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) consumption.
• Declining raw milk prices in early Q3 2025 reduced production costs, pressuring prices downward.
Europe
• In Germany, the Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, influenced by declining global dairy powder prices.
• SMP production costs were pressured by elevated raw milk prices in Q3 2025, despite a -1.7% PPI decrease in September.
• German consumer spending remained subdued in Q3 2025, with a 2.4% CPI increase in September, impacting SMP demand.
• Industrial production declined by 1.0% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating weakened industrial demand for SMP.
• Germany's Manufacturing Index showed a contracting trend in Q3 2025, signaling reduced industrial output affecting SMP demand.
• Retail sales increased by 0.2% year-over-year in September 2025, offering modest support for consumer-facing SMP products.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3% in September 2025, suggesting cautious consumer behavior for SMP end-products.
• Global dairy powder prices trended downward in Q3 2025, reducing EU SMP export competitiveness.
Why did the price of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Global dairy powder prices trended downward in Q3 2025, impacting EU export competitiveness for SMP.
• Industrial production declined 1.0% in September 2025; a contracting Manufacturing Index curbed SMP demand.
• Elevated raw milk prices and high industrial energy costs in Q3 2025 pressured SMP production expenses.
