For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
• The SMO254 Price Index in the North American market sustained an upward trajectory throughout the Q1 of 2025, settling at the end of the quarter at USD 15,869/MT for SMO 254 Plate (DEL Houston, USA).
• Why did the price of SMO254 change in April 2025?
Prices increased initially in the April 2025, continuing Q1’s bullish trend, driven by higher input costs and robust construction and industrial demand.
• January saw a 4% price increase due to surging nickel prices amid Indonesian export policy uncertainty, which affected the SMO254 Production Cost Trend.
• Demand strengthened from construction, manufacturing, and automotive sectors, improving the SMO254 Demand Outlook.
• February brought temporary price stability, despite continued labor shortages and raw material cost volatility.
• In March, prices surged by 9%, with increased tariffs and input cost pressures prompting manufacturers to pass expenses downstream.
• The SMO254 Spot Price reflected upward adjustments due to raw material inflation and an improving macroeconomic backdrop.
• The SMO254 Price Forecast for Q2 indicates continued strength if construction growth sustains and nickel prices remain elevated.
Europe
• The SMO254 Price Index in Europe closed Q1 2025 at USD 14,202/MT for SMO 254 Plate (FD-Wittingen, Germany), despite a quarter-over-quarter price drop.
• Why did the price of SMO254 change in April 2025?
Prices increased in early weeks of April, following a strong March performance, driven by tightening inventories and infrastructure stimulus optimism.
• January registered a 2% increase, reflecting rising nickel prices and market concerns over supply chain fragility.
• A 59% year-on-year rise in trading volume pointed to intensified industrial interest, though construction and auto demand remained muted.
• February prices held steady as producers absorbed costs, while civil engineering activity partly supported the SMO254 Demand Outlook.
• March saw a 13.5% price surge amid inventory depletion and speculation about upcoming infrastructure projects.
• Persistent weakness in residential/commercial construction continues to temper the region’s SMO254 Price Forecast, although government-backed civil works provide potential support.
• The SMO254 Production Cost Trend was influenced by raw material volatility and higher logistical expenses.
• SMO254 Spot Prices fluctuated throughout Q1, but signs of upward movement emerged late in the quarter.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• The SMO254 Price Index in APAC ended Q1 2025 at USD 11,400/MT (Ex Sichuan, China), marking a decrease compared to Q4 2024 but a net positive trend within the quarter.
• Why did the price of SMO254 change in April 2025?
Prices increased in early April, following March’s recovery, due to domestic demand resurgence and improved nickel supply.
• January started with a 1.5% price rise, supported by supply constraints in the nickel pig iron (NPI) market and firm specialty alloy demand.
• February saw a 2.5% decline, driven by weaker NPI output, falling iron ore prices, and general macro uncertainty.
• A sharp 5% price rebound in March was triggered by an upturn in Chinese nickel production and a 79% increase in new home transactions, fueling industrial demand.
• The SMO254 Demand Outlook in APAC showed improvement by March, particularly in construction-driven consumption.
• The SMO254 Production Cost Trend remained erratic due to shifting nickel prices and inconsistent NPI supply.
• Regional SMO254 Spot Prices trended lower early in the quarter but gained strength toward the end.
• The SMO254 Price Forecast for Q2 remains cautiously optimistic, pending demand consistency and raw material supply stability.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in North America faced a challenging landscape characterized by fluctuating nickel prices and ongoing economic uncertainty. Prices declined by 4% in October and continued to decrease by 2% and 3% in November and December, respectively. This downward trend reflects weak demand conditions and increased inventory levels, driven by a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector and declining export orders exacerbated by international market issues and recent hurricane disruptions.
Key factors influencing the market include significant oversupply in the SMO254 sector, which has led manufacturers to implement price discounts. Despite a marginal recovery in business sentiment and slight increases in automotive sales and construction employment, demand for SMO254 products remains subdued, particularly impacted by the high-interest rate environment, which stifles new residential developments.
The quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate DEL Houston stood at USD 14,140/MT. Throughout Q4, the pricing trend showcased a consistent decline, influenced by external economic pressures and inherent supply chain challenges. Moving forward, market participants will need to address these challenges while closely monitoring evolving demand dynamics in the construction and manufacturing sectors to sustain competitive positioning.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in Europe, particularly in Germany, faced considerable challenges marked by a significant decline in prices and weak demand conditions. Prices dropped by 6% in October, followed by a 10% decline in November and 9% in December, reflecting the persistent contraction within the eurozone's construction and manufacturing sectors. The overall pace of contraction accelerated for the first time since July, driven by high interest rates, dampened business activity, and heightened economic uncertainty. Key factors influencing the market included elevated inventory levels among manufacturers, compounded by decreased inquiries from the public sector and a continued decline in new orders, particularly in the manufacturing and construction industries. Despite some temporary rebounds in specific sectors, these were insufficient to offset the broader downturn, leading to increased discounting tactics among suppliers to address oversupply. The quarter-ending price for SMO 254 Plate FD-Wittingen stood at USD 12,391/MT. Throughout Q4, the pricing trend highlighted ongoing pressure, with persistent declines dominating the landscape. As market conditions remain tenuous, participants face significant challenges related to fluctuating demand, regulatory uncertainties, and the balancing act of maintaining profitability amid weakening sales forecasts. Efforts to stabilize pricing and enhance demand moving forward will be critical for market recovery.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in the APAC region, particularly in China, faced a turbulent landscape characterized by significant price declines and fluctuating demand dynamics. Prices decreased by 3% in October, followed by an 8% drop in November, and a further decline of approximately 1% in December. These fluctuations primarily mirrored the volatility in nickel prices and a weakening construction sector amid ongoing economic adjustments. Key factors influencing market conditions included the impact of government stimulus measures and an overall positive response in manufacturing activity, as indicated by a slight uptick in PMI figures. However, challenges persisted, notably from high inventory levels and weak demand from key sectors, including construction and manufacturing. Despite resilience in the automotive sector, broader sluggishness in construction activity dampened overall market sentiment. The quarter-ending price for SMO254 (5*800*1850) Ex Sichuan stood at USD 10,980/MT. Throughout Q4, pricing trends reflected a downward trajectory driven by external supply chain pressures and bearish demand forecasts. As market participants manoeuvre through this environment, they face critical challenges related to maintaining profitability and adaptable supply strategies amid evolving market realities. Balancing supply and demand in the coming months will be essential for stability.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American SMO254 market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by several key factors. The surge in nickel prices, influenced by global supply challenges and rising mineral costs, played a significant role in pushing prices higher. Manufacturers faced difficulties passing on these increased costs to consumers, impacting the overall pricing dynamics.
Additionally, a rise in import volumes of long carbon and alloy steel products added to the supply dynamics, further influencing market prices. Despite mixed demand signals, with the construction sector showing growth while the manufacturing sector faced challenges, overall, the pricing environment in North America leaned towards an upward trend.
In the USA specifically, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This increase was reflective of the broader trends seen in the region, with a 3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate DEL Houston in the USA stood at USD 15496/MT, showcasing a positive pricing environment characterized by increasing prices. No disruptions or plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, SMO254 pricing in the APAC region saw a significant decline, driven by several factors. Market prices were affected by changes in feedstock material costs, including nickel, chromium, and iron. These fluctuations, combined with weak demand and elevated inventory levels, contributed to the overall downward trend.
China's steel demand is set for significant growth in 2024, largely driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and metal containers, which saw an annual growth rate exceeding 6% in the first eight months. This trend is expected to persist, with some industries approaching double-digit growth. To support this expansion, the Chinese government has enacted monetary and fiscal measures, including cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates, improving market liquidity.
The quarter experienced a 4% decline from the previous quarter, with prices decreasing between the first and second halves. At the end of the quarter, the price for SMO254 (58001850) Ex Sichuan in China was reported at USD 12,426 per metric ton. Despite challenges such as plant shutdowns, the overall pricing environment in the region remained negative, reflecting a continued downturn in SMO254 prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a downward trend in SMO254 pricing, reflecting a challenging market environment. Factors contributing to the price decline included weakening demand from key industries, economic headwinds, and slower-than-expected recovery in production after summer shutdowns. The manufacturing sector faced significant challenges, with declining orders and production rates impacting overall market sentiment.
The reduction in purchasing from constructors indicates a broader weakness, impacting the expected demand from key sectors. While there are signs of price increases in raw materials, which traditionally could translate to higher demand for Inconel, current market sentiment suggests that buyers are prioritizing caution over immediate procurement. This reluctance creates a challenging environment for Inconel manufacturers, who are left navigating through a precarious demand landscape. The construction industry in Germany is experiencing increased demand, with signs of stabilization in the property market following a period of uncertainty.
Germany, as a key player in the European market, experienced the most substantial price changes during this period. The country saw fluctuations in SMO254 prices, with a notable 1% decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, there was a 2% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a more pronounced decline in the latter part. Plant disruptions further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, adding pressure on prices. The quarter concluded with SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany priced at USD 16095/MT, highlighting the persistent negative pricing sentiment in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in North America has experienced a consistent and marked upward trend, primarily driven by significant supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs. The imposition of sanctions on Russian raw materials, coupled with geopolitical tensions, created a supply scarcity, notably augmenting the prices of essential components such as nickel. Operational challenges in nickel mines, particularly in Brazil and New Caledonia, exacerbated the supply constraints.
Additionally, logistical hurdles, including increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the South Pacific and the Red Sea crisis, further inflated production expenses. In the USA, where SMO254 prices surged the most, several trends underscored this bullish market sentiment. The constrained supply, accentuated by low inventory levels, met with robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors, driving prices up. Seasonal factors also played a role, with the summer construction boom amplifying demand pressures.
The connection between limited supply and increased demand led to a price hike from the first to the second half of the quarter. Additionally, the price change from Q1 2024 indicated a rising price trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of SMO254 Plate delivered to Houston in the USA stood at USD 14646/MT, reflecting a positive and increasingly bullish pricing environment throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the SMO254 pricing landscape in Europe demonstrated a definitive upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of market forces. The quarter was marked by escalating raw material costs, notably nickel, which exerted substantial upward pressure on SMO254 prices. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions further exacerbated the tight supply conditions, propelling prices higher. The European steel industry grappled with strike actions and delivery delays affecting major mills, including Acerinox’s Cadiz plant, compounding supply constraints and feeding into the bullish price trend. Concurrently, the construction sector's robust demand for high-strength materials like SMO254 sustained the price momentum, reflecting a stable to positive pricing environment throughout the quarter.
Focusing on Germany, the epicentre of price volatility, the quarter witnessed the most pronounced price changes. German distributors faced persistent supply shortages amid rising demand from both the construction and automotive sectors, despite overall industry challenges. Seasonal demand fluctuations played a minimal role as structural market shifts underscored the price dynamics. The price change correlation between the first and second halves of the quarter highlighted a consistent increase, reinforcing the sustained upward trend.
Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 4%, underscoring a significant quarterly uplift. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany reached USD 16179/MT, encapsulating the quarter’s consistent and robust price escalation. The overarching sentiment remains positive, bolstered by strong demand and constrained supply, outlining a bullish outlook for the SMO254 market in Germany.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the APAC region exhibited a clear downward trend influenced by several significant factors. The market experienced price decreases due to shifts in demand and supply dynamics, coupled with external economic pressures. Notably, disruptions in global nickel supply affected the overall cost structure, while geopolitical tensions and rising shipping costs exacerbated the situation. These elements collectively contributed to the pricing decline observed during this quarter.
Focusing on China, the region with the most substantial price fluctuations, the SMO254 market faced considerable volatility predominantly driven by a slowdown in manufacturing activity and a surplus in nickel inventory. The general pattern showed a negative sentiment, as seen in the quarter-over-quarter change and the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter. Seasonal factors such as decreased industrial demand and prolonged property sector issues further pressured prices.
The correlation between these factors and the observed price trends underscores a challenging market environment. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 in China was USD 13016/MT, reflecting the cumulative impact of negative market forces. Additionally, the absence of significant plant shutdowns or disruptions during this period points to supply chain stability yet underscores the dominant influence of macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges on pricing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of SMO254 in the US?
• As of Q1 2025, SMO254 prices in North America (Houston, USA): USD 15,869/MT.
2. What is the current price of SMO254 in Germany?
• As of Q1 2025, SMO254 prices in Europe (Wittingen, Germany): USD 14,202/MT.
3. What is the current price of SMO254 in China?
• As of Q1 2025, SMO254 prices in APAC (Sichuan, China): USD 11,400/MT.
4. What is the SMO254 Demand Outlook for Q2 2025?
• Demand is expected to remain strong in North America, moderate in Europe (with infrastructure projects providing support), and improving in APAC due to a recovering construction sector.
5. What factors are influencing the SMO254 Production Cost Trend globally?
• Key contributors include nickel price volatility, labor market challenges, tariff impositions, and NPI production trends, especially in China and Indonesia.
