For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, the Sodium Citrate market in North America showed a steady yet cautious trend. Supply-side inventory pressure was manageable, but weak downstream demand and a conservative purchasing mentality led to average market performance. While prices rebounded slightly from lower levels, overall transactions remained stable.
Regional price fluctuations were observed, driven by increased downstream orders and improved shipment activity among enterprises. End-user negotiations shifted upward as downstream industries maintained high consumption levels, supported by favorable feedstock procurement conditions.Rising raw material costs, particularly citric acid, added complexity to the pricing landscape, contributing to an overall upward trend in Sodium Citrate Dihydrate prices.
However, a significant decline in import prices mid-quarter created challenges, with weakened demand across key sectors like pharmaceuticals and preservatives. Oversupply, economic slowdown, cheaper alternatives, and currency fluctuations further pressured prices downward. Despite this, market sentiment remained generally bearish, with cautious buyer behavior, shorter supplier lead times, and reduced purchasing interest. As September began, modest improvement in end-user demand helped balance stockpiled inventories among traders, stabilizing the market. Overall, by the end of Q3 2024, Sodium Citrate Dihydrate prices saw a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter, settling at USD 805/MT CFR Los Angeles.
Asia Pacific
Throughout Q3 2024, the Sodium Citrate market in the APAC region maintained stable prices, reflecting a balanced pricing environment. Several factors influenced market prices, including stable demand, consistent supply levels, and overall market equilibrium. The market was characterized by a cautious and stable sentiment, with prices holding steady without significant fluctuations. In China, the market experienced the most significant price changes, with a slight decline from the previous quarter. Demand played a significant role, with increasing consumption both domestically and in export markets fueling the upward price trend. Supply constraints from key exporting regions exacerbated the situation, as production costs rose due to various challenges, including disruptions and plant shutdowns witnessed in the months of July and August. Supporting this further, the ongoing logistical challenges and rising freight costs constrained trading sentiment for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate from China, further contributing to the price increase until the final weeks of September 2024. However, the prices witnessed a steady drop in the middle of the quarter. Weakened downstream purchasing and shifts in demand towards alternative excipients created significant pricing pressure. Supporting this, irrespective of weakened freight costs the market shifts considerably supported by the lessened arrival of newer inquiries, continued to keep the overall market trading atmosphere leaning on the southerly side thereby creating a supply-demand imbalance situation. As Q3 2024 came to a close, the price of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate FOB Shanghai in China stood at USD 660/MT, underscoring the prevailing stability in the market.
Europe
Similar to that of other North American regions in Q3 2024, the Sodium Citrate market in Europe witnessed a stable trajectory in prices, with Germany experiencing the most significant price changes. This trend was marked by intensified market activity, including higher inquiry volumes, increased trading, and heightened participant enthusiasm. Several key factors drove this upward movement: a surge in bulk procurement, consistent pricing of primary components that maintained stable production costs, and a noticeable uptick in inquiries from downstream poultry sectors. Export trends from key producing nations showed steady growth, with traders actively working to improve profit margins. Ongoing logistical challenges and rising freight costs constrained trading sentiment for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate from China, further contributing to the price increase and supporting an overall upward trajectory. However, the market witnessed a steady downward trend in the middle of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily influenced by several key factors. Decreased production costs stemming from lower energy expenses and declining citric acid prices played a pivotal role in driving prices lower. Furthermore, subdued demand across various sectors like food preservatives and pharmaceuticals contributed to the bearish outlook. As a result, with respect to the overall market sentiments, the prices of Sodium citrate dihydrate witnessed a steady trajectory during the entire quarter with 1% increase from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 775/MT, reflecting the prevailing downward pricing trajectory in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout Q2 2024, the North American Sodium Citrate market experienced significant price fluctuations. The quarter began with a weak trajectory due to reduced freight charges, easing product availability, and lowering overall pricing. Substantial existing inventories in the US market, stemming from continuous drops in regional quotations, particularly from food industries, contributed to a subdued market sentiment. This surplus, coupled with weakened consumer confidence and increased inflationary pressures, dampened demand and supported a downward trend.
However, may see a reversal in trajectory, with Sodium Citrate demand resurging due to strong market sentiment and robust local purchasing activity. Suppliers quoted higher prices for new orders, influenced by rising freight charges and container shortages from key producing nations, especially China. The depreciation of the dollar further elevated import costs. Despite these challenges, steady new inquiries suggested a resilient demand outlook.
While yet again, June witnessed another downturn in market purchasing sentiments, with supplies exceeding demand. The seasonal nature of drug production likely contributed, as manufacturers shifted focus to medications more in demand during the summer months. Traders actively liquidated inventories, adding to the available supply. Input costs and output prices maintained inflation rates close to long-term averages, sustaining supply trends. Weakened buyer sentiment created a supply-demand imbalance favoring oversupply and pushing prices downward. Overall, by the quarter's end, the market reflected a predominantly negative pricing environment, influenced by a supply-demand imbalance.
Asia Pacific
During the entire Q2 2024, the Sodium Citrate market in the APAC region experienced a marked decline in prices, driven by a complex interplay of factors. The overall sentiment was negative, underscored by ample inventories, subdued demand, and intensified competition among suppliers. Enhanced production capacities and streamlined manufacturing processes contributed to a supply surplus, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as the devaluation of regional currencies against the US dollar and fluctuating raw material costs further compounded the pricing environment. China witnessed the most substantial price changes. The second quarter saw a notable reduction in Sodium Citrate prices, influenced by both seasonal demand fluctuations and broader economic conditions. The post-Lunar New Year period typically sees a temporary surge in demand; however, this was insufficient to counterbalance the pervasive oversupply. The ongoing depreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the dollar incentivized overseas procurements, yet this did not mitigate the prevailing supply glut. Moreover, labor shortages and disruptions in production, including temporary plant shutdowns in key manufacturing hubs, exacerbated the situation by limiting fresh inventory inflows. Comparatively, the price of Sodium Citrate in China declined by 1% from the previous quarter of the year, reflecting an overall downward trajectory. These dynamics indicate a challenging pricing environment, influenced by a confluence of supply chain factors and external economic pressures, culminating in a subdued market outlook.
Europe
Opposing the trend witnessed in other importing nations, the second quarter of 2024 showcased a decidedly bullish trend for Sodium Citrate prices in the European region, shaped by a confluence of supply chain disruptions, heightened production costs, and geopolitical tensions. This quarter saw an escalation in prices, spurred by increasing feedstock Citric Acid costs and logistical challenges exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Disruptions such as plant shutdowns in the Asia-Pacific region and delays at major shipping routes, notably the Cape of Good Hope, intensified the cost pressures. Furthermore, the General Rate Increase implemented by shipping carriers in response to elevated fuel prices and operational expenses added to the upward price trajectory. Focusing specifically on Germany, the country experienced the most pronounced price hikes within Europe. The upward trend in prices was influenced by seasonal demand spikes from downstream sectors, particularly preservatives, amidst warmer temperatures increasing consumption. The correlation between supply constraints and heightened demand led to substantial price changes, with a recorded 5% increase from the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Sodium Citrate Dihydrate market in the North American region commenced the first quarter of 2024 on a downward trend but gradually recovered by mid-quarter, remaining optimistic until the quarter's end. In January, Sodium Citrate dihydrate prices followed a pessimistic trajectory due to lower demand from downstream industries, resulting in a surplus inventory among merchants. However, market demand remained steady, with regional inquiries effectively met by domestic suppliers, ensuring a balance between supply and demand and stable market transactions.
Moreover, as a major importer of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate, the USA implemented strategic pricing measures to maintain global competitiveness, resulting in worldwide price reductions, mirrored in other nations. However, this trend shifted significantly in February. Downstream merchants experienced a rebound in regional inquiries initially, with ample supplies meeting demand. However, mid-February saw production halts in primary exporting regions like Chinese provinces due to Lunar New Year celebrations. This constrained shipments and exacerbated limited inventories in the US market, further intensified by rising consumption.
Continuing the trend in March as well, the US market saw a continuous spike in Sodium Citrate Dihydrate prices which impacted both the exporting and importing regions. The surge was primarily driven by price hikes in exporting regions, driven by post-Lunar New Year production resumptions, limited inventories, and increased demand. This compelled the US market to adjust its prices to stay competitive. However, with insufficient inventories and delayed supplies, prices soared in exporting regions, prompting US buyers to make bulk orders, further driving up prices. Regarding month-over-month price changes in Q1, the analysis concludes with the final quarter's price for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate CFR Los Angeles in the USA, which was stated as USD 775/MT as of March. Inquiries from end-user preservative sectors remained high, with market transactions primarily based on long-term orders.
APAC
In Q1 2024, Sodium Citrate Dihydrate pricing in the APAC region, particularly China, exhibited an overall positive trend with minor fluctuations in January. Prices declined alongside reduced inquiries, despite ample material availability. Cost-saving measures were prioritized over expansionary initiatives, echoed in Western and Northern regions, contributing to price reductions and inventory clearance. Supporting this, was the significant drop in feed Citric acid prices which kept the overall production cost of Sodium Citrate dihydrate on the lower side. Moving into February, a significant price surge was witneseed due to rebounded demand from domestic and international markets as trading nations reopened. Suppliers strategically increased prices to optimize profit margins. However, Lunar New Year celebrations in China led to production slowdowns, and worsening supply constraints, compounded by rising freight charges ahead of the Red Sea dispute, further limiting the availability of the product and affecting the overall trade activity. While, the post-holiday market reopening saw heightened purchasing activities, driven by large procurement orders, boosting consumer confidence and driving prices upward. Market participants strategically focused on selling their goods at a higher price to improve profit margins. This trend persisted into the final weeks of March, with sustained demand from regional and overseas markets. As markets resumed operations, there was a need to replenish inventories with fresh stock. Bulk procurement fueled demand dynamics in importing nations, aided by a drop in freight costs, providing opportunities for lower-cost goods procurement. Overall, as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the recorded price for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate FOB Shanghai in China is USD 700/MT, reflecting the stable pricing environment observed during Q1 2024.
Europe
The pricing dynamics of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate in Europe, particularly in Germany, mirrored its exporting nations' trends, notably China in the APAC region, during Q1 2024. Prices initially fell in January but steadily rebounded in February and remained on the upper side throughout March. Fluctuations in demand from industries like food, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics influenced this trend. Global oversupply at the beginning of the quarter led to price declines, compounded by rising freight charges, affecting trade momentum. Traders focused on clearing excess stockpiles, resulting in significant price declines. Midway through the quarter, there was a notable price surge fueled by increased demand, which was met by ample inventories held by market participants. Germany, being a major importer of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate, felt the impact of price fluctuations in key exporting regions. This surge was primarily due to price hikes in exporting regions following post-Lunar New Year production resumptions in mid-February and limited inventories amid rising demand. Consequently, the German market adjusted its prices to stay competitive. With dwindling inventories and delayed supplies, prices spiked in exporting regions, leading importers to place bulk orders to secure sufficient stocks, further driving up prices in importing nations. Moreover, in March, the market witnessed eased freight costs, boosting market activity with trader actively focused on procuring the goods at lower freight charges while at the same time trading the goods at a higher cost within the market ahead of the depreciation of euro against the dollar to make up their previous profit losses. Overall, the pricing environment for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate as Q1ends for USP CFR Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 745 /MT CFR Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the North American region, the pricing trajectory of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate initially experienced a significant upward trend at the onset of the fourth quarter (Q4). However, it underwent a substantial decline as mid-Q4 commenced, persisting in a pessimistic trend until the concluding weeks of December 2023. Several factors contributed to this pricing evolution. Firstly, there was a notable increase in consumer demand, leading to a surge in inquiries and purchases. This heightened demand was fueled by various factors, including a rebound in the manufacturing sector, rising inflation, and improved business confidence.
Secondly, the supply of Sodium Citrate was relatively low, both domestically and globally, resulting in a scarcity of the product on the market. This scarcity, coupled with merchants' intentions to stockpile their inventories, contributed to the upward trajectory of prices. Lastly, the cost of feedstock citric acid increased, further supporting the positive price trend for Sodium Citrate. In the USA, the pricing trend closely followed the global market, with an increase in demand and limited supply driving prices higher. However, as we progress into November 2023, Sodium Citrate Dihydrate prices experienced a substantial drop. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the United States recorded a contraction, decreasing from 50.4 in October 2023 to 46.7 in November 2023. Additionally, the global economy encountered various challenges, including rising inflation and concerns about an imminent recession. These uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance, resulting in a decline in stock prices.
The return to contraction in new sales led to a slower expansion in production, further job cuts, and depletion of inventories, while input buying remained stagnant. A global downturn in downstream consumption and a reduction in new quotations from the regional market, where certain excipients may experience seasonal fluctuations in demand and prices, resulted in November potentially witnessing a lull compared to October. Supporting this observation, the market's transaction volume was small due to the limited presence of traders and goods circulating in the market. This trend persisted until the end of December 2023, with downstream inquiries consistently declining and procurement practices becoming more cautious. Market participants closely monitored the market dynamics, noting a prevailing trend where transactions predominantly leaned towards the downside, ultimately settling at USD 770/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the APAC region, the Sodium Citrate market encountered substantial price and demand fluctuations during the fourth quarter of 2023. Prices showed an upward trend at the beginning of the fourth quarter, only to decline significantly as November progressed, continuing on the weaker side until the final weeks of December 2023. As of October 2023, the FOB price negotiation for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate saw a notable increase. This substantial price surge was predominantly fueled by heightened demand from importing regions, driven by the onset of winter celebrations. The festive period led to a marked increase in beverage and processed food consumption in the food industries, thereby boosting demand in the excipient sectors. Additionally, market activity in China indicated a rise in energy and crude oil costs, subsequently elevating production and transportation expenses. This served as another contributing factor to the heightened pricing trajectory observed for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate during this period. However, moving into November 2023, the downstream sector witnessed a reduction in demand, primarily linked to subdued activity levels in the Chinese spot market. Suppliers and traders adjusted their inventory levels based on anticipated demand and market conditions. Buyers, anticipating lower demand or expecting price declines, significantly reduced their purchasing activity, further contributing to the overall decrease in demand. Additionally, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in November 2023, the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) experienced a decline to 49.4, reflecting the economic slowdown's dampening effect on excipient demand. As economic activity slowed down, pharmaceutical companies scaled back production volumes to align with lower demand forecasts, resulting in a decline in the prices of various excipients. Moreover, an abundance of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate stockpiles among merchants, driven by a significant increase in production, particularly in China in the preceding month, resulted in elevated availability within the region. The values of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate continuously declined in exporting nations, supported by weakened cost support from its feedstock, the Citric Acid market, until the end of December 2023, with prices settling at USD 680/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European market for Sodium Citrate Dihydrate witnessed several factors influencing prices. Commencing with October 2023, Germany observed a significant uptick in its prices, propelled by heightened demand from the downstream food and beverage sector. This played a pivotal role in maintaining an overall upward trend in the market. Additionally, Germany experienced a positive shift in its business climate index, which improved from 85.8 points in September to 86.9 points. Companies expressed greater satisfaction with their current business situations and displayed reduced pessimism regarding prospects. The manufacturing sector saw a slight increase in the business climate index, primarily attributed to decreased skepticism among businesses. Inflation in Germany notably decreased, reaching its lowest level since August 2021, indicating a significant cooling in headline inflation within the eurozone. The stronger euro against the US dollar resulted in cheaper imports, stimulating consumer spending and overall economic growth. This positive effect allowed German companies to sell their products at higher prices within the domestic market, thereby increasing their profits. Contrastingly, November 2023 witnessed a substantial decrease in demand, leading to a surplus of sodium citrate in the region. This oversupply intensified competition among sellers, resulting in price reductions to attract buyers. Additionally, the decline in raw material costs, specifically the cost of citric acid, played a crucial role in the reduction of Sodium Citrate Dihydrate prices. As December marked the end of the year 2023, German consumer demand presented a mixed picture. While the festive season boosted activity in specific sectors like holiday shopping and online retail, concerns about the cost of living and economic uncertainties restrained spending in other areas, including the preservatives and excipients sectors. Moving forward, consumer behavior expected to be shaped by the evolving economic landscape and inflation trends. Even Germany experienced a Technical Recession in December, as reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services sectors remaining below 50. The December PMI stood at 43.3, a slight revision from the preliminary figure of 43.1, compared to 42.6 in November, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month.
On the upstream side, the downward trend in Citric Acid prices gained momentum towards the end of 2023 due to a sustained drop in consumption. This not only impacted production but also played a role in maintaining a weak and consolidated market, with prices settling at USD 735/MT CFR Hamburg.
