For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The opening quarter of the month witnessed a largely bullish market situation for the prices of Sodium Thiocyanate. The North American Sodium Thiocyanate continued to drive by expensive imports of the product from the exporting European and Asian markets due to disruptions witnessed at key waterways and a high demand from the for the product as a de-icing agent during the initial months of this quarter.
Moreover, demand from the downstream cement sector also witnessed gradual upticks as weather conditions improved. The demand of the product as a chemical intermediate sector also remained favorable as the manufacturing sector across the US continued to expand which resulted in healthy consumption rates.
The downstream construction sector overall across the United States witnessed a healthy performance as indicated by the number of house completions, heightened commercial construction activities and real estate developers being more active during the months of February and March 2024, except in the month of January 2024 when the construction sector witnesses a typical slowdown as peak winter season prevails.
Asia
The first quarter of 2024 has seen mixed trends in Sodium Thiocyanate pricing in the APAC region. Overall, prices have been influenced by various factors such as supply constraints, demand from the construction and chemical intermediate sectors, and the impact of seasonal fluctuations. In China, the largest market for Sodium Thiocyanate, prices have experienced significant changes. The market has been bullish, with limited supplies and moderate demand. This has led to price increases, particularly due to expensive imports and restocking activities. The Chinese Lunar New Year has also played a role in driving up prices, as private construction improves during this time. The correlation between supply and demand has been evident, with low inventories leading to price increments. The construction sector, although slowly recovering, has not shown sufficient momentum to drive significant price changes. Meanwhile, the chemical intermediate sector has experienced moderate growth, supported by improvements in production and new orders. Looking at the quarter-on-quarter comparison, prices have generally increased due to high demand from restocking activities and the use of Sodium Thiocyanate as a de-icing agent. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Sodium Thiocyanate in the APAC region has been positive overall, with price increases observed in both India and China. Supply constraints, improving industrial activities, and seasonal factors have influenced market prices. The latest quarter-ending price in China was USD 1190/MT FOB Shanghai.
Europe
The opening quarter of this year saw a largely mixed market for the prices of Sodium Thiocyanate. The demand for Sodium Thiocyanate remained robust during this period as a de-icing agent attributed to snowy conditions. Moreover, significant challenges have also been reported with the existing supply chain system which are primarily attributed to the strikes by Union Workers, resulting in limitations in logistics and transportation. However, the demand for the product from the chemical intermediate sector remained primarily low due to continued downturns witnessed in the manufacturing sector which eventually led to slow consumption of the product. Also complementing the low demand was the underperformance of the construction activities which resulted in the low demand for the product from the cement industry. Export conditions also remained highly unfavorable due to the persisting crisis at the Red Sea, which resulted in European suppliers receiving low orders from the international market due to elevated freight charges. This gradually led to stockpiling of the inventories.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Sodium Thiocyanate market faced challenges at the onset of the fourth quarter of 2023, influenced by adverse conditions in the United States' agriculture sector.
The impact of droughts, attributed to the El-Nino effect, resulted in suboptimal cultivation of winter crops, thereby diminishing the demand from the insecticide manufacturing industry. However, as the fourth quarter progressed, there was a notable improvement in the market dynamics of Sodium Thiocyanate, marked by increased consumption.
The positive transformation in Sodium Thiocyanate market conditions was particularly evident in the construction industry across the United States and Mexico. The construction of hotels in the United States and the escalating momentum of nearshoring activities in the Mexican market contributed to this improvement. Despite these positive trends, a softer turnaround in the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November introduced a mild shortage of the product. This shortage, compounded by the acute depletion of existing inventories in circulation, resulted in a subsequent increase in product prices.
APAC
The pricing dynamics of Sodium Thiocyanate in the APAC region exhibited a varied pattern, marked by an initial 4% increase in October 2023, followed by a subsequent depreciation of approximately 4.2% in November 2023, and ultimately, a 12% upswing in December 2023. In October 2023, the Chinese market experienced an upward trajectory primarily attributed to heightened consumption in the downstream construction and chemical intermediate sectors of the industrial chemical manufacturing industry. The increase in China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), surpassing the threshold limit, indicated growth in the non-manufacturing industry. These favorable conditions prompted domestic manufacturers to sell existing inventories at elevated prices, facilitated by positive procurement activities among traders. However, the months of November saw distress in the Chinese manufacturing and construction sectors. Despite various policies implemented by Chinese authorities, the construction industry continued to struggle, and manufacturing activities remained in contraction throughout November and December 2023. The decline in product prices in November 2023 can be attributed to diminished demand as product consumption stalled. Subsequently, in December 2023, the persistent contraction of manufacturing industries in China resulted in a 12% surge in product prices, driven by tight supply conditions exacerbated by adverse weather conditions. The assessed prices of Sodium Thiocyanate stood at USD 1180/MT FOB Shanghai at the conclusion of the last quarter of 2023.
Europe
The Sodium Thiocyanate market in the European region faced persistent challenges during the fourth quarter of 2023. Although prices exhibited a marginal increase in October 2023, driven by moderate demand from the insecticide sector coinciding with the barley crop harvest season, they subsequently declined throughout November and December. This downturn was attributed to subdued performance in the construction industry and chemical intermediate sector, as manufacturing activities continued to contract. The primary demand from the construction sector remained low, with the industry experiencing retrenchment for the thirteenth consecutive month. Notably, housebuilding emerged as the weakest segment within the construction sector, and other sub-sectors, including civil engineering and commercial buildings activities, also witnessed significant downturns. The contraction in manufacturing activities across the Eurozone further dampened demand from the chemical intermediate sector and solvent industries, resulting in a decline of approximately 1.1% in industrial chemical production. Overall, as the fourth quarter of 2023 drew to a close, the market situation for Sodium Thiocyanate in the European region continued to deteriorate.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The assessment shows that Sodium Thiocyanate prices in the US market witnessed a decline during the third quarter of 2023 owing to unrestored demand from the domestic chemical intermediate segment. As per the data, demand fundamentals for the product have remained low in the meantime. Furthermore, it was observed that the downstream sectors struggled to show any sign of improvement during this quarter, but the prolonged labor shortage in the country suppressed the industry from thriving. However, prices of most of the Dye and pigment-related raw materials were falling consistently in the market, and Sodium Thiocyanate remained no exception in this case. However, PPI rose from 235.094 (July) to 235.795 (August), data released by FRED shows, impacting the overall recovery. In the H2 of Q3 2023, the US Sodium Thiocyanate market experienced price stability, largely attributed to unchanged demand from the downstream pigment sector. This was complemented by the steady domestic supply of sodium thiocyanate throughout the month.
Asia
Sodium Thiocyanate price trend remained bearish throughout the quarter in the Asian market on the back of a sudden rise in supplies amidst low demand in the regional market. As per the data, Sodium Thiocyanate prices declined by around 10% in China as well as in India during the third quarter of 2023. Further, imports of the product in India from China improved during the middle of the quarter by around 150% and declined again by 30% by the end of the quarter. The steep rise in supplies during the middle of the quarter severely affected the product’s availability in India and thus reduced queries for September. Therefore, product prices kept falling throughout this timeframe, while Chinese domestic consumption remained underwhelming, supporting this pricing trajectory. However, from an economic perspective, according to the data released by NBS China, PMI improved from 49.3 (July) to 49.7 (August), and it supported the pricing uptrend for several chemical commodities, but not in this case.
Europe
Sodium thiocyanate prices within the European market recorded a decline in July and August. This price downturn was primarily attributed to the subdued economic prospects coupled with lackluster demand in the market. Several Asian traders revealed that exports to Europe remained low during this period due to plummeting consumption, affecting their profitability. These factors collectively weighed on market sentiment for Dye and pigment-related raw materials across Europe. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that industrial activities within the region demonstrated resilience during this timeframe. As indicated by Eurostat, the Industrial Production Index, which stood at -1.3% in July, showed an improvement to 0.6% in August 2023. On the other hand, regional economic activities, particularly in Germany, remained relatively stable and subdued throughout this period. Data released by Deutsche Bundesbank Eurosystem revealed that producer prices of industrial products sold on the domestic market held steady at 147.1 in September after a revision from 147 in July.
