For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply conditions amid downward revisions in regional soybean production due to lower yields and acreage. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained import requirements from key global buyers and increased biodiesel sector consumption. Supply constraints from competing producing regions and rising shipping costs further support export prices. Market sentiment reflects cautious inventory liquidation early in the quarter, transitioning to a more bullish outlook as supply concerns intensify and export competitiveness improves with a weaker US dollar.
In the USA, soybean oil prices rose by 4.13% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 990 USD/MT. Monthly prices exhibited a relatively flat intra-quarter trend, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics. Price gains are underpinned by reduced domestic soybean output, strong export demand, and stable crushing activity, despite some inventory drawdowns. The market remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward pressure driven by tightening stocks and favorable export conditions in the near term.
Asia Pacific
The APAC soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply amid robust demand growth, driven by trade disputes and shifting sourcing patterns. Reduced availability of alternative oils and delayed shipments from key exporters have intensified regional procurement activities. Rising input costs and inflationary pressures are further constraining supply, while downstream sectors maintain strong buying interest. Inventory levels remain balanced but cautious restocking and strategic hoarding are evident, supporting a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In China, soybean oil prices increased by 5.08% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 1027 USD/MT during the quarter. Monthly data indicate a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting supply tightness from delayed imports and higher domestic demand. Elevated production costs and ongoing trade tensions have compounded price gains, sustaining a bullish trend. The near-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued strong demand and potential further price appreciation.
Europe
The European soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While supply is expected to outpace demand during certain months, persistent high input costs and geopolitical tensions are elevating production expenses and export prices. Increasing consumption in key importing regions, coupled with biodiesel mandates diverting soybean oil to fuel production, sustains upward price pressures. Market participants are actively restocking inventories amid constrained alternative vegetable oil supplies and potential trade disruptions, resulting in cautious but firm trading sentiment throughout the quarter.
In the Netherlands, soybean oil prices rose by 6.11% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 1128 per metric ton. The intra-quarter trend remained relatively flat, reflecting stable monthly prices despite external cost pressures. Elevated input costs, supply chain constraints, and increased demand from key importers underpin this bullish trend. Near-term outlook suggests continued price support driven by inventory restocking, export reliance, and limited alternative oil supplies, maintaining a cautiously optimistic market stance.
South America
The South American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by robust demand driven by global consumption growth, particularly in biodiesel and food sectors. Supply constraints due to adverse weather and rising production costs are exerting upward pressure on export prices. Currency depreciation in key producing countries enhances export competitiveness but simultaneously inflates local costs. Inventory levels remain sufficient, tempering extreme volatility, while traders' cautious stockholding supports a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In Brazil, soybean oil prices increased by 3.84% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 928/MT during the current quarter. The intra-quarter price trend was relatively flat, reflecting balanced market dynamics amid sufficient inventories. Price movements were influenced by rising input costs, inflationary pressures, and tightening oilseed supplies, offset by strong export demand and currency depreciation. The overall trend is moderately bullish, with near-term prospects indicating continued price support.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Soybean Oil market began the fourth quarter with a notable upward trend but ended the period on a more negative note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From October to November 2024, prices saw upward pressure driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly from the renewable diesel sector. Policy incentives for biofuel production, coupled with an increasing demand for renewable energy feedstocks, tightened soybean oil supplies, which were already strained by unfavorable weather conditions, especially in the Midwest, leading to reduced soybean yields. Additionally, global competition, particularly from Brazil, further exacerbated these challenges, keeping prices elevated despite modest increases in domestic production. Furthermore, In November, the U.S. soybean crop was revised downward due to persistent droughts and heat, raising concerns about supply shortages and temporarily supporting soybean futures. The USDA's WASDE report highlighted strong biofuel demand, sustaining upward price momentum.
However, by December, the market shifted due to global oversupply, particularly from Brazil, and lower crude oil prices reduced biodiesel demand. The stronger U.S. dollar and increased competition from alternative oils like sunflower oil further pressured soybean oil prices. Economic uncertainties, including inflation and potential global slowdown, also dampened demand, leading to a price decline and a slight reduction in ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's soybean oil market saw considerable price fluctuations due to various domestic and global factors. In October, export prices surged as soybean crushing margins remained favorable, boosting production volumes. This, combined with strong global demand for vegetable oils, particularly amid tight palm oil supplies and reduced soybean production forecasts in major exporting nations like the US, pushed prices higher. Concerns over potential supply shortages further intensified demand, prompting international buyers to secure stocks. In November, China's soybean oil export prices continued to rise, supported by strong domestic demand, especially from the food and biodiesel sectors, which limited exportable supply. Global soybean oil supplies were tight due to reduced production and logistical disruptions in key producing regions, reinforcing higher prices. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan also made exports more competitive, despite the rise in local prices. However, by December, soybean oil prices began to soften. Weakened demand from downstream sectors like food processing and livestock, alongside concerns about potential policy changes, dampened market sentiment. Additionally, strong domestic supply and competitive pricing of alternatives like sunflower oil contributed to the decline in prices, leading to a bearish outlook for the market.
Europe
During the entire fourth quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s soybean oil market experienced fluctuations primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, logistical challenges, and shifting global demand dynamics. In October, a surge in export demand, particularly from Europe and Turkey, was observed, supported by rising global consumption of Ukrainian soybeans. This export momentum, fueled by competitive pricing, pushed soybean oil prices upwards, despite broader challenges within Ukraine’s agricultural sector, such as reduced acreage for other crops and increasing logistical costs. The global balance of soybean-derived product prices also played a significant role, with favorable weather in Brazil supporting a bumper harvest, while the U.S. faced slight yield reductions, thus reinforcing Ukraine’s market positioning. However, the conflict with Russia continued to hamper Ukraine's overall economic stability, as reflected in the PMI data indicating a contraction in manufacturing and services, coupled with inflationary pressures and reduced demand from key trading partners. In November, soybean oil prices remained elevated, bolstered by sustained export demand, but limited by domestic logistical constraints and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Concurrently, global competition from palm and sunflower oil further supported soybean oil's price momentum. However, by December, a shift occurred as soybean oil prices fell, primarily due to abundant supply from an increased harvest and high inventories. This surplus was compounded by weak export opportunities and limited domestic demand, exacerbated by competition from sunflower oil. The depreciation of both the euro and hryvnia against the dollar also dampened purchasing sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns, alongside reduced consumer purchasing power and less industrial activity during the holidays, contributed to further downward pressure on prices. Consequently, while Ukraine's soybean oil exports benefited from global trends, the domestic market experienced an overall decline due to excess supply and muted demand.
South America
In Q4 2024, Brazil's soybean oil market faced a significant downward trend due to various domestic and international factors with a modest rise witnessed in the end of the quarter. In October, export prices dropped due to an oversupply of soybean oil, fueled by favorable weather for soybean planting and reduced global demand. Economic challenges in major importing countries, combined with high domestic inventories, led to lower imports, while cheaper alternatives like palm oil gained traction. The depreciation of the Brazilian real also made exports more competitive, contributing to downward price trends. November saw continued pressure as Brazil's soybean production increased by 10% year-on-year, and global stocks reached record highs. Additionally, Argentina’s recovery further intensified competition, while Brazil’s biodiesel policy diverted more oil for domestic use, limiting exports. This resulted in a decline in exports, totaling just 2.55 million tons compared to 5.2 million tons in 2023. Lastly, in December, adverse weather and logistical issues tightened supply, while global demand, particularly from Asia and Europe, increased, pushing prices higher despite the real depreciation. Moreover, global market dynamics, including price fluctuations in related vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil, exerted upward pressure on soybean oil prices. Lastly, Brazil's biodiesel production mandates, coupled with increasing export activities, further strained the domestic market, pushing prices even higher during this period, and keeping the overall market trading sentiments on the northerly side.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
South America
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the Soybean Oil market in South America maintained a stable pricing environment, with minimal fluctuations observed across the region. Various factors contributed to this steady trend, including balanced supply and demand dynamics, stable economic conditions, and consistent global market trends. The market was relatively unaffected by significant disruptions or plant shutdowns during this quarter, allowing for uninterrupted trading activities.
In Brazil, the country with the most notable price changes in the region, the Soybean Oil market demonstrated resilience and stability. Price movements were driven by factors such as the completion of the soybean harvest, sufficient supply levels, and moderate demand from both domestic and international markets. Overall, the pricing trends in Brazil mirrored the stability observed across South America, with prices maintaining a consistent trajectory throughout the quarter.
The quarter-ending price for Soybean Oil FOB Paranagua in Brazil stood at USD 935/MT, reflecting the overall stable pricing environment experienced in the region during the quarter 3 of 2024.
APAC
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the Asia Pacific region witnessed a notable increase in Soybean Oil price negotiations, influenced by a multitude of factors. The market saw a surge due to heightened demand from various sectors such as food industries and biofuel production. This increased demand, coupled with stable supply conditions, contributed to the upward trajectory in prices. Additionally, rising freight costs and a positive market sentiment further buoyed the pricing environment. In China specifically, the market experienced significant price changes, reflecting the broader trends in the region. The quarter saw a continuation of the positive momentum, with prices steadily increasing. Seasonal patterns and market dynamics played a crucial role in shaping the price trends. Despite a slight dip in prices from the previous quarter, the overall quarter-on-quarter comparison showed a 5% increase, indicating a strengthening market. The quarter concluded with Soybean Oil priced at USD 946/MT FOB Shanghai in China, marking a robust end to the period and demonstrating the sustained upward momentum during the quarter.
Europe
In quarter 3 of 2024, the Soybean Oil market in Europe experienced a significant uptrend in prices, driven by a confluence of factors. High international demand, protracted supply bottlenecks, and currency fluctuations contributed to the overall price increase. The market saw disruptions in production and supply chain, along with plant shutdowns, which further tightened the availability of Soybean Oil, pushing prices higher. In the Netherlands, the market witnessed the most significant price changes, with a notable surge in prices. Seasonal trends and correlation in price changes played a role in the overall price dynamics, reflecting the impact of global market conditions on domestic pricing. The quarter recorded a 6% increase from the previous quarter, with a 2% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price was settled at USD 1048 per metric tonne of Soybean Oil FOB Rotterdam in the Netherlands, showcasing a consistent upward trend in pricing throughout the quarter backed by distinct supply and demand dynamics
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the U.S., the Soybean oil market is poised for significant shifts, mirroring trends observed in the key producing nations, particularly southern America. The second quarter of 2024 reveals a dynamic landscape with pronounced price volatility, characterized by distinct market behaviors.
April 2024 initiated with robust momentum, marked by rising prices due to insufficient inventory and heightened regional demand. On the supply front, participants in the market continued to grapple with limited supplies of soybean oil in response to inquiries from the regional market. To meet this growing demand, units continue to maintain their manufacturing levels despite facing higher costs, primarily due to input material expenses including limited availability of feed soybeans which has led to a significant increase in procurement levels.
Market participants were opting to replenish their stocks in this environment, resulting in a noticeable growth in both output and new orders at a steady pace. Supporting this, there has been a continuous increase in freight charges compared to the previous month, contributing to an overall positive outlook for market trading sentiments during the entire quarter. Lastly, rising prices in other exporting nations including Argentina, Ukraine and others further influenced the overall market sentiments in the United States as well, resulting in a continuous higher price during the entire quarter.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 exhibited a pronounced upward trajectory in soybean oil prices across the APAC region, notably from China, with a steady decline at the quarter's end. This period was characterized by several significant factors influencing market prices. Chief among these were disruptions in the supply chain due to adverse weather conditions in major soybean-producing regions, which affected the harvest and reduced soybean oil availability. Additionally, rising input costs, including fertilizers, fuel, and labor, have amplified production expenses, driving up prices. Increased demand from downstream sectors, particularly the biofuel and food industries, exerted further upward pressure on prices. The continuous rise in global freight costs contributed to this inflationary trend, making exports more expensive and impacting overall market sentiment. In China, which experienced the most substantial price fluctuations, the overall trend was decidedly positive. The country's soybean oil prices soared due to strong demand from end-user sectors and constrained supply. Seasonality exacerbated these factors, with the planting season in major exporting countries contributing to the tight supply situation. The correlation between increased demand and limited supply resulted in a steady price rise within China. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, there was a consistent increase in prices, reflecting heightened demand and supply challenges. The quarter-ending export price for soybean oil stands at USD 920/MT, underscoring the robust upward price momentum.
Europe
During the entire second quarter of 2024, the European Soybean Oil market experienced a significant upward trend in prices. This trajectory was influenced by multiple factors, including a substantial drop in regional inventories, continuous heightened demand from downstream sectors, and a significant depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar. The persistent arrival of regional quotations weakened market supplies, and competitive prices from other producing nations, such as those in South America, further influenced this trend. Heavy rains in March and April delayed soybean harvesting in other producing nations, reducing oilseed supplies to the global market. This supply reduction supported price increases in nations including Ukraine, affecting overall supply-demand dynamics. As of April, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 130.9 points, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) month-on-month, marking a 13-month high. In the Ukrainian market, participants grappled with limited soybean oil supplies amid regional inquiries. To meet growing demand, production units maintained manufacturing levels despite higher costs, primarily due to the limited availability of feed soybeans. On the demand side, persistent strong buying sentiments in the local market, coupled with increased freight charges, contributed to a positive market outlook. Weather disruptions, such as prolonged lack of rain, low soil moisture, dry winds, and varying intensity frosts, stressed crops during critical growth periods. Surveys by the end of May indicated that these conditions potentially impacted crop growth, development, and final yields, reducing soybean availability for downstream oil processing facilities. Additionally, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine caused global export disruptions, further affecting trading sentiments. This led to higher oil prices across the region and neighboring states due to rising fuel and transportation costs. As a result, the combination of these factors, supported by May's weather disruptions, kept the trading cost of soybean oil on the upper side throughout the quarter. Conclusively, Q2 2024 ended with the price of Soybean Oil at USD 905/MT in Ukraine, underscoring an optimistic pricing environment.
South America
In South America, particularly in Argentina, soybean oil export prices saw a significant rise throughout the second quarter of 2024. This rise in the prices was supported by key factors including weather disruptions, trade disputes, a persistent rise in overseas quotations, limited feed availability, etc. Starting with this, adverse weather conditions in Argentina have led to delays in the soybean harvest, with crops currently in full swing conditions, posing challenges for crop yields and production forecasts. Factors such as weather patterns including pest infestations and dry spells in various parts continue to influence harvest outcomes and market prices for soybean oil. Furthermore, the country continues to face increasing competition from Brazil and the US for global market share, as prices continue to remain elevated in these nations, thereby further supporting the overall price rise. While on the demand side, the global soybean oil market continues to experience robust demand, particularly from major importing nations. This sustained demand is being driven primarily by the biofuel sector. Consequently, the elevated demand has exerted upward pressure on global edible oils such as soy oil prices, leading to a corresponding increase in prices in key exporting nations such as Argentina, the United States, and Brazil. Additionally, price competitiveness witnessed by other producing nations, including European and neighboring states further supports this overall price rise until the final weeks of June. As a result, overall, the second quarter of 2024 was characterized by weather disruptions, trade disputes, persistent rises in overseas quotations, and limited feed availability. These factors collectively contributed to a significant increase in soybean oil export prices, particularly in Argentina and other major producing countries.
