For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Soybean Oil Price Index fell by 5.73% quarter-over-quarter, due to ample supply.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1108.00/MT, per Chicago averages.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price weakened as crush volumes, palm competition pressured export and domestic quotations.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast indicates modest downside pressure because inventories remain ample and buyers cautious.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend remains supported as abundant soybeans sustain profitable crusher margins industrywide.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook is mixed; biodiesel mandates support volumes while exports softened this quarter.
• Soybean Oil Price Index movements showed pipeline inventory pressure, steady crush rates limiting upward momentum.
• Nearby logistics remained fluid, reducing transportation premiums and reinforcing Chicago FOB weakness across Soybean Oil.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in December-2025 in North America?
• Abundant crush output and carryover stocks increased supply, depressing spot and FOB Chicago price realization.
• Weaker export demand from traditional buyers reduced vessel nominations and narrowed Gulf premiums on cargoes.
• Lower heating oil prices reduced biodiesel margins, muting blending-related procurement and limiting domestic price support.
APAC
• In China, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 1.34% quarter-over-quarter, due to export demand.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1008.33/MT. reflecting balanced supply.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price firmed as inventories thinned and export interest supported Shanghai FOB parcels.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend rose with South American premiums and firmer global soybean futures.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook stayed muted domestically but strengthened via record export enquiries to India.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast signals near-term pre-holiday strength followed by normalization after shipment delays expected.
• The Soybean Oil Price Index rose as exporters cleared stocks and overseas buying supported offers.
• Chinese crushers kept high run-rates, influencing spot availability while freight pressures affected FOB competitiveness abroad.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Higher imported soybean costs from South American weather concerns increased crusher breakevens, applying cost-push pressure.
• Stronger export enquiries from Southeast Asia and India reduced available spot barrels, supporting Shanghai FOB.
• High domestic crusher run-rates limited spot inventory builds while logistics and freight shaped export competitiveness.
Europe
• In Germany, the Soybean Oil Price Index fell by 0.92% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant imports and weak demand domestically.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1293.00/MT, reported in Germany.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price remained pressured as abundant Latin American arrivals kept landed values low.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast indicates modest near-term softness amid subdued buying and competitive exporter offers.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable with mild easing in feedstock and freight-related costs.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook stayed weak as processors and biodiesel blenders deferred purchases, reducing inventories.
• High inventories supported Soybean Oil Price Index weakness while palm and rapeseed competition amplified substitution.
• Port logistics and steady freight kept supplies flowing, limiting tightness and constraining any price recovery.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Ample Latin American arrivals increased port inventories, outpacing domestic demand and depressing CIF price levels.
• Seasonally weak food and industrial consumption reduced buying, sustaining bearish Price Index momentum through December.
• Stable freight and smooth logistics prevented supply disruptions, keeping landed costs low and maintaining pressure.
South America
• In Brazil, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 5.67% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter spot availability and stronger export enquiries.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1123.67/MT, reflecting shipments and FOB adjustments.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price tightened as farmer selling slowed and port pipelines absorbed increased exporter demand.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast signals modest gains into 2026 driven by seasonal demand and constrained year-end crush throughput.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable as natural gas costs held steady, limiting downward pressure.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook is balanced-to-firm with biodiesel blend increases and renewed Asian and European purchasing interest.
• Inventory draw potential and active export enquiries lifted the Soybean Oil Price Index despite ample regional oilseed supplies.
• Crushers reduced throughput during maintenance and delayed planting, tightening supplies and supporting short-term FOB premiums.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in December 2025 in South America?
• Tighter spot availability from slower farmer selling and seasonal maintenance reduced immediate exportable soybean oil volumes.
• Stronger overseas enquiries ahead of holidays and biodiesel blend changes drew supply, lifting FOB premiums in December.
• Logistical delays from interior rains and lower crush throughput constrained port loadings, tightening short-term market balances.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 8.9% quarter-over-quarter, in Q3 2025, supported by policy and demand.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1175.33/MT.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price strengthened amid rising overseas demand and tight near-term supply.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious amid policy uncertainty and global edible oil competition.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend supported higher seed costs and crushing margins.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook indicates continued appetite from biodiesel and food sectors.
• Soybean Oil Price Index reflects elevated freight, logistics and export activity.
• Inventory levels remained ample, limiting immediate supply fears but sustaining price support.
• Major producers' operations remained stable, preventing sudden supply gaps and boosting confidence.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Supply dynamics: robust biodiesel demand and export activity supported price movement amid seasonal supply tightness globally across regions.
• Cost pressures: rising feedstock costs and crushing margins kept prices firm against softer domestic demand expectations internationally.
• Logistics: seasonal bottlenecks and freight costs continued to influence September pricing in North America noticeably amid congestion persistent.
APAC
• In China, the Soybean Oil Price Index fell by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 995/MT.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price faced downward pressure from abundant local supply, competitive global offers, and delayed shipments.
• The Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious due to substitution risks, inventory overhang, and seasonal demand volatility.
• Production Cost Trend for Soybean Oil rose on higher processing energy consumption, freight costs, and tighter refinery margins.
• Demand Outlook remains tempered by palm-oil substitution, slower regional demand recovery, and inventory-led cautious buying.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signaling fragile balance as exports compete with domestic consumption and seasonal shifts.
• Inventory levels remain elevated, constraining price gains despite steady export demand and proactive stockpiling by buyers.
• Export logistics improved later, potentially supporting price discipline, smoother cargo flows, and gradual market stabilization.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Tighter global edible oil supply, logistics bottlenecks, and rising freight costs constrained September prices in APAC.
• China's domestic crushing output and stockpiling limited export gains, dampening price momentum in the quarter.
• Substitution by palm oil and biodiesel demand muted upside potential despite firm demand from processors.
Europe
• In Germany, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose by 7.11% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, supported by demand resilience.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1305/MT globally.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price softened amid global oversupply and regional inventory buildup.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remained cautious as currency and feedstock costs swing upward.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend shows pressure from energy inputs evolving across EU and global markets.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook remains steadily supported by biodiesel and food sectors amid cautious procurement.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signals volatility amid shifting import strategies and global policy changes.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price dynamics reflect port congestion and freight cost fluctuations seasonally.
• Soybean Oil Price Index remains sensitive to euro-dollar rates and global export quotas amid policy shifts.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply tightness in exporting regions constrained available cargoes and supported European imports amid seasonal shifts.
• Rising freight costs and port bottlenecks elevated landed prices for buyers in Europe.
• Currency volatility and demand shifts from biodiesel and food sectors influenced pricing.
South America
• In Brazil, the Soybean Oil Price Index rose 16.42% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, due to tight supply and demand strength.
• The average Soybean Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1063.33/MT, reflecting global demand.
• Soybean Oil Spot Price stayed firm due to export tightness and biodiesel demand, supported by seasonal demand by buyers.
• Soybean Oil Price Forecast remains cautious amid steady demand and improving crop outlook and near-term.
• Soybean Oil Production Cost Trend rose with higher input costs and logistics pressures globally across regions.
• Soybean Oil Demand Outlook shows resilient overseas demand, especially from Asia this quarter as harvest season approaches.
• Soybean Oil Price Index signals quarterly volatility from logistics and macro shifts in markets worldwide globally.
Why did the price of Soybean Oil change in September 2025 in South America?
• Strong overseas demand from Asia as winter stocking boosts imports into the region globally and markets for processors.
• Rising production costs and biodiesel blending commitments tighten domestic supply and support sustained prices across regional markets worldwide.
• Logistics bottlenecks at ports and currency movements constrained export flows, underpinning persistent price firmness throughout Q3 period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• In Q2 2025, North America’s soybean oil market showed a consistent upward trend with an average quarter-over-quarter price increase of approximately 3.87%, and the soybean oil spot price reaching USD 1,115 per unit in June. This rise was largely driven by robust export demand and tightening supply fundamentals amid global uncertainties.
• June saw continued growth in soybean oil spot prices, reaching a high point due to policy shifts, especially the EPA’s proposed increase in biofuel blending mandates that elevated market optimism and speculative buying.
• The soybean oil production cost trend during the quarter reflected pressure from rising freight rates and constrained oilseed crush margins, influenced by delayed crop planting and weather woes impacting raw material availability.
• soybean oil Demand outlook improved notably, buoyed by stronger biodiesel blending requirements and persistent global import interest, particularly from Asian markets, which increased purchasing activity despite supply challenges.
• U.S. soybean oil inventories remained relatively tight due to reduced crushing rates amid higher operational costs and supply chain bottlenecks, supporting firm prices throughout the quarter.
• Speculative activity intensified, with money managers raising net long positions on soybean oil futures, reinforcing bullish price momentum ahead of early Q3.
• Export competitiveness of U.S. soybean oil improved due to subdued domestic soybean supplies and favorable global price differentials, expanding market share in key import regions.
• Operational constraints at processing plants, including humidity-related planting delays in the Midwest and logistical disruptions in Argentina, affected supply flow and supported price resilience.
• Forward contract prices were gradually adjusted upward in response to tightening fundamentals and policy-driven demand, signaling a stable to slightly bullish price forecast for next quarter.
• Overall, energy sector developments and policy changes rather than immediate physical shortages were predominant in driving price behavior, emphasizing a structurally positive demand outlook for soybean oil in the U.S.
APAC
• The APAC region experienced a downward trajectory in soybean oil prices over Q2 2025, with an average price decline of approximately -1.97%, culminating in a soybean oil spot price of around USD 970 in June, influenced by oversupply and weak demand fundamentals.
• In June, soybean oil prices continued to soften as domestic crushing volumes in China reached historic highs, creating significant oversupply which coupled with limited international buying interest pressured export prices further downward.
• Throughout the quarter, production cost trends remained under pressure due to fluctuating soybean import patterns, elevated inventories, and logistical delays impacting refinery throughput despite operational stability at crushing plants.
• The soybean oil demand outlook weakened considerably, affected by reduced biofuel sector uptake owing to lower crude oil prices and a pivot by importers toward cheaper alternatives such as palm oil.
• Chinese processors prioritized volume over margins to offload surplus soybean oil, maintaining low export prices amid a highly competitive global market environment.
• Supply-side abundance, supported by a surge in Brazilian soybean imports and eased freight costs, intensified the market’s oversaturation rather than stabilizing prices.
• Weakening international demand, especially from Southeast Asia and African importers facing inflationary and currency challenges, contributed to subdued external pull-on Chinese soybean oil exports.
• Domestic consumption remained modest with subdued food processing and industrial purchasing due to cautious inventory management amid economic uncertainties.
• Forward pricing for soybean oil reflected bearish sentiment, with expectations of continued price pressure into the next quarter given persistent supply surplus and demand softness.
• Manufacturing and supply chain dynamics in APAC indicated a focus on clearing stock rather than expanding margins, setting a challenging environment for soybean oil suppliers in the near term.
Europe
• European soybean oil prices demonstrated mixed dynamics but trended moderately higher in Q2 2025 with an average quarter-over-quarter price increase of approximately 3.43%, reaching around USD 1,170 per unit in June, before slight retreat due to supply factors.
• In June, European soybean oil markets, particularly Ukraine, witnessed a downward correction influenced by record domestic soybean production forecasts and softening demand amid fierce international competition and falling crude oil prices impacting biofuel sectors.
• Production cost trends were impacted by investments in shifting processing capacity from sunflower seeds to soybeans, rising operational expenses, and inflationary pressures that weighed on manufacturing economics.
• Demand outlook for soybean oil was resilient earlier in the quarter, supported by strong export flows to the EU and India, but softened toward June as alternative vegetable oils gained price advantage and buying interest waned.
• Ukrainian soybean processors increased crush volumes amid strong domestic soybean harvest prospects, translating into greater oil availability and temporarily exerting downward pressure on prices.
• Policy volatility and currency fluctuations shaped price movements as producers aligned export prices with international benchmarks amidst market uncertainty.
• Export demand remained solid in May driven by EU and Asian markets, facilitated by favorable exchange rates and competitive pricing strategies from Ukrainian suppliers.
• Seasonal soybean oil demand slowdowns and reduced biofuel blending margins in June led to softer domestic consumption, while robust logistics and port capacity maintained export throughput.
• Supply-side resilience backed by record production combined with weakening global crude oil prices contributed to a delicate balance between upward price pressure and emerging bearish signals.
• Price forecasts for the forthcoming quarter suggest cautious optimism amid expected steady demand but with susceptibility to global vegetable oil market volatility and energy price influences.
South America
• In Q2 2025, South America’s soybean oil market oscillated but ended with a modest downward trend averaging a marginal 0.87% price, with soybean oil spot prices reaching USD 1,035 by June, propelled by strategic export activity and policy incentives in Argentina.
• June was marked by a substantial price surge driven by Argentina’s accelerated export shipments ahead of impending export duty hikes and favorable crushing margins, contributing to a strong soybean oil price rebound.
• The soybean oil production cost trend showed volatility resulting from weather variability, cautious crushing activity, and currency fluctuations, affecting input costs but also stimulating strategic operational adjustments.
• Soybean oil Demand outlook improved significantly in June as tightening global vegetable oil markets, elevated biodiesel blending mandates in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions fueled strong international buying interest.
• April’s limited soybean harvest and cautious crushing contributed to initial price firmness, while May’s correction reflected U.S. biofuel policy uncertainties and increased global supply from competitor countries.
• Argentina’s manufacturing sector responded to duty-driven incentives by operating near full processing capacity in June, prioritizing soybean oil production to maximize export revenues.
• Logistical efficiencies in June facilitated record export volumes, despite earlier bottlenecks, showcasing enhanced supply chain responsiveness within the region.
• Global soybean oil demand weakness in May, especially from key buyers such as India and the EU, tempered prices, aligning with speculative profit-taking amid uncertain biofuel policies.
• The interplay of improved crush margins and government tax strategies shaped a positive pricing environment in June, overshadowing earlier mid-quarter bearishness.
• Forward soybean oil price forecasts for the next quarter remain bullish, underpinned by expected continued strong export momentum and supportive global demand fundamentals in the edible oil and biofuel sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply conditions amid downward revisions in regional soybean production due to lower yields and acreage. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained import requirements from key global buyers and increased biodiesel sector consumption. Supply constraints from competing producing regions and rising shipping costs further support export prices. Market sentiment reflects cautious inventory liquidation early in the quarter, transitioning to a more bullish outlook as supply concerns intensify and export competitiveness improves with a weaker US dollar.
In the USA, soybean oil prices rose by 4.13% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 990 USD/MT. Monthly prices exhibited a relatively flat intra-quarter trend, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics. Price gains are underpinned by reduced domestic soybean output, strong export demand, and stable crushing activity, despite some inventory drawdowns. The market remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward pressure driven by tightening stocks and favorable export conditions in the near term.
Asia Pacific
The APAC soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by tightening supply amid robust demand growth, driven by trade disputes and shifting sourcing patterns. Reduced availability of alternative oils and delayed shipments from key exporters have intensified regional procurement activities. Rising input costs and inflationary pressures are further constraining supply, while downstream sectors maintain strong buying interest. Inventory levels remain balanced but cautious restocking and strategic hoarding are evident, supporting a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In China, soybean oil prices increased by 5.08% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging 1027 USD/MT during the quarter. Monthly data indicate a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting supply tightness from delayed imports and higher domestic demand. Elevated production costs and ongoing trade tensions have compounded price gains, sustaining a bullish trend. The near-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of continued strong demand and potential further price appreciation.
Europe
The European soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While supply is expected to outpace demand during certain months, persistent high input costs and geopolitical tensions are elevating production expenses and export prices. Increasing consumption in key importing regions, coupled with biodiesel mandates diverting soybean oil to fuel production, sustains upward price pressures. Market participants are actively restocking inventories amid constrained alternative vegetable oil supplies and potential trade disruptions, resulting in cautious but firm trading sentiment throughout the quarter.
In the Netherlands, soybean oil prices rose by 6.11% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 1128 per metric ton. The intra-quarter trend remained relatively flat, reflecting stable monthly prices despite external cost pressures. Elevated input costs, supply chain constraints, and increased demand from key importers underpin this bullish trend. Near-term outlook suggests continued price support driven by inventory restocking, export reliance, and limited alternative oil supplies, maintaining a cautiously optimistic market stance.
South America
The South American soybean oil market in Q1 2025 is characterized by robust demand driven by global consumption growth, particularly in biodiesel and food sectors. Supply constraints due to adverse weather and rising production costs are exerting upward pressure on export prices. Currency depreciation in key producing countries enhances export competitiveness but simultaneously inflates local costs. Inventory levels remain sufficient, tempering extreme volatility, while traders' cautious stockholding supports a generally bullish market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
In Brazil, soybean oil prices increased by 3.84% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 928/MT during the current quarter. The intra-quarter price trend was relatively flat, reflecting balanced market dynamics amid sufficient inventories. Price movements were influenced by rising input costs, inflationary pressures, and tightening oilseed supplies, offset by strong export demand and currency depreciation. The overall trend is moderately bullish, with near-term prospects indicating continued price support.
