For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Soybean Oil prices in North America followed similar market trends in Europe during Q2 2023 as the prices of soybean Oil continued to drop from the beginning of Q1 2023 until June 2023. This persistent weaker market sentiments for Soybean oil were supported by high soybean oil inventories in the region, ample supply from European buyers, Russia's interruption of the black sea grain trade, which continued to put pressure on the market as exports from Ukraine, one of the main producers, decreased. In addition, there was a hard down move in crude oil prices and sharply lower Russian edible oil and grains offers. This combination was extremely negative for corn, soybean, and wheat prices. In addition, rising interest rates and higher energy prices had a negative impact on import activities as the production in exporting countries was reduced significantly. Furthermore, n significant changes in refinery inventories also impacted the North American soybean oil market sentiment, keeping the prices of soybean in the southward direction.
Asia Pacific
Across the APAC region, Soybean Oil prices showcased an ascending trajectory in China while continuing to drop continuously in India, both of which are importing countries. With the commencement of April 2023, the prices of Soybean oil dropped stably compared to the previous month, as several traders stated that owing to stricter customs inspections which led to longer-than-expected waiting times and demand disruption. Also, Chinese soybean farmers have been complaining about a lack of demand for domestic beans from the crushing industry, increasing domestic soybean stocks in China, especially in northeast China, said another trader. However, in the case of India also, the prices continued to drop in until April. While in the middle of the second quarter, the prices went down by more than 10 percent. One of the primary factors that supported this decline in the prices includes higher soybean production in the exporting nations, which has contributed to the increase in supply with higher stockpiles, putting further downward pressure on its prices. At the end of June, the prices for Soybean oil improved in the Chinese market as the demand from the downstream sector improved slightly. With this, the prices of Soybean oil in China were assembled at USD 930/MT CFR Shanghai and INR 88000/MT Ex-Mumbai with a consistent diminishing trend.
Europe
The second quarter (2023) of the Soybean oil market ended on a negative note, with a steady decrease in prices. Ukraine, which is one of the largest exporters of vegetable oil, is exporting a large quantity of vegetable oil to the world market at a much lower price than normal. The first half of the summer (May to August) was marked by a sharp decrease in the price of soybean oil for delivery to FOB black sea Ukraine, as the 60-day prolongation of the black sea grain initiative confirmed on 18 May did not bring any relief in the downward prices of soybean oil. The European market remained heavily loaded with stocks purchased in the short term ahead of the renewal of the deal. As the second half of Q2 draws to a close, a few market analysts say that soybean oil prices continued to decline in June amid high global exportable supplies. Similarly, soybean oil prices in Germany also decreased by over 2 percent. Apart from that, according to the Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which tracks monthly changes in global prices of widely traded food commodities. The FAO's Food Price Index showed that inflation was 122.3% in June, down 1.4% from May and down 23.4% from its peak in March 2022. As a result, soybean Oil prices in Ukraine closed at $805 / MT Exw Kyiv in Ukraine while the price in Germany was $ 1067 / MT CFR Hamburg.
South America
Soyabean Oil prices in the South American region, especially in Argentina, show an increasing trend as prices declined until May and slightly increased in June. Argentina's soybean yields fell to a record low in April, according to a report from the Argentine Grains Exchange (BAGE). One of the world's leading agricultural suppliers, Argentina, was hit by a severe drought in the month of April, affecting the country's corn, wheat, and soybean production, as well as its soybean meal and oil exports to Africa and Asia. With a significant drop in Argentina's domestic production amid this historic drought, the country has cut off a critical supply for global food security. Following the mid-second quarter, the entities also warned about the reasons behind the decrease in oilseeds supply and the higher availability of oilseeds from the new harvest due to the arrival of the harvesting season. The weakening of foreign currency during this month also impacted the overall market trend of various edible oil both domestically and in the foreign market. As the month progressed into June, the prices recovered at a moderate level. One of the reasons behind this price increase is the increase in the price of inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides used for harvesting. Higher inquiries from the United States, China, and other importing nations also contributed to the price increase of soyabean oil, one of the main used vegetable oils. Soyabean Oil prices in June ended at USD 973 / MT FOB Buenos Aires.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
During the first quarter of 2023, the price of Soybean oil in North America fluctuated due to conflicting market sentiments and erratic market dynamics. Prices dropped in the first half of Q1 as a result of the war's protracted settlement and the signing of various agreements between Russia and Ukraine. This, in turn, reduced the cost of edible oils, especially soybean oil. Because of the constant supply and low demand, the price remained low. All oils are now more affordable in the local US market as a result of the global decline in edible oil costs. Due to ample supplies on the domestic market, prices fell throughout the duration of the second half of the second month of Q1 2023. The third month of the quarter saw a price rise because the overall level of demand was high, and there was low availability of products available to meet customer needs.
Asia-Pacific region
Soybean oil prices fell in the Asia-Pacific region in Q1 2023. Importers raised their purchases at the beginning of the quarter, particularly in the first month, as a result of low global pricing and strong crush margins. China imported 6 MT of soybeans from Brazil in February, which was a record-high amount compared to a year earlier. Prices remained constant during the second month of the quarter as they continued to decline since there was sufficient demand from both domestic consumers and traders. Although during the last month of the quarter, market goods prices recovered to their typical range. The price of Soybean Oil was estimated to be USD 1377/MT at the end of Q4 for FOB Shanghai (China) in March 2023.
Europe
Soybean Oil prices fell in the European region in the first quarter of 2023, boosted by exporters who mostly fulfilled contracts that were already in place. While land logistics continued to run smoothly, there were more new contracts. Furthermore, because of efficient transportation and a sharp decline in fuel prices during the first half of the quarter, the product's price plummeted. Due to the availability of inventories on the domestic market and a drop in downstream demand, prices fell in the second part of Q1. Because there are no concerns about a limited supply, the product's price has decreased on the domestic market. The price of Soybean Oil was estimated to be USD 1385/MT for CFR Hamburg (Germany) in March, around the conclusion of Q1 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Soybean oil prices fluctuated in North America during the fourth quarter of 2022, backed by opposing market emotions and unstable market dynamics. Due to the war's tardy resolution and the signing of some agreements between Russia and Ukraine, prices fell in the first half of Q4, which lowered the price of edible oil. The price stayed low because of a consistent supply and strong demand. Due to the worldwide fall in edible oil prices, all oils are now cheaper on the local US market. Prices decreased throughout the duration of the second half of the second month of Q4 of 2022 due to insufficient supplies on the domestic market. The third month of the quarter saw a price fall because the overall level of demand was low, and plenty of products were available to meet customer needs. The price of soybean oil for the USA in December 2022 was reported to be USD 1452.831/MT toward the conclusion of Q4 2022.
Asia-Pacific region
In Q4 2022, Soybean Oil prices varied in the Asia-Pacific area. Due to high global prices and low crush margins, importers lowered their purchases at the beginning of the quarter, especially in the first month. In October, China's soybean import fell 5% from a year earlier to 4 MT, marking their lowest level. Due to increased demand from domestic consumers and traders, prices suffered during the second month of the quarter as they continued to rise. However, product prices returned to their normal range in the market during the quarter's final month. The cost of Soybean Oil was estimated to be USD 1480/MT at the end of Q4 for FOB Shanghai (China) in December 2022.
Europe
Soybean Oil prices in the European region fluctuated in Q4 2022, helped by exporters who were primarily carrying out contracts that were already in place. The number of new contracts decreased in light of the persistent overstuffing of inland logistics. Additionally, during the early half of the fourth quarter, the product's pricing dropped due to inadequate transportation and a rapid rise in fuel prices. Prices increased in the second half of Q4 as a result of rising downstream demand and a shortage of inventory on the domestic market. The product's price in the domestic market has increased because of worries about a restricted supply. The price of Soybean Oil was estimated to be USD 1650/MT for CFR Hamburg (Germany) in December, around the conclusion of Q4 2022.
In North America, during the third quarter of 2022, soy oil prices varied, supported by conflicting market emotions and erratic market dynamics. Prices increased in the early half of Q3 because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, driving up the cost of edible oil. Due to low supply and considerable demand, the price remained high. The price of all oils on the local US market has increased because of the global rise in the price of edible oil. Due to adequate supplies in the domestic market, prices fell throughout the second part of Q3 of 2022. The overall demand was low, and the ample presence of products to satisfy the customer needs further supported the decrease in price in the second half of the quarter. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Soybean Oil was recorded to be USD 1490/MT for the USA in September 2022.
In the Asia Pacific region, Prices for soybean oil fluctuated in Q3 2022, helped by exporters who were primarily carrying out contracts that were already in place. The number of new contracts decreased because of the ongoing overstuffing of inland logistics. The product's pricing also dropped during the first half of the third quarter due to inadequate transportation and a steep rise in fuel prices. Prices increased in the second part of Q3, backed by rising downstream demand and a shortage of inventory on the domestic market. A rise in the product's price in the area has been encouraged by worries over a restricted supply. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Soybean Oil was recorded to be USD 1607/MT for Ex-Mumbai India in September 2022.
In the European region, Soybean oil prices fluctuated in Q3 2022, supported by exporters mostly working under agreements already in place. Considering the continued overburden in land logistics, the number of new contracts fell. Additionally, insufficient transportation and a sharp increase in fuel prices resulted in a decrease in the product's pricing during the first part of the third quarter. Due to increasing demand from the downstream sectors and low stocks on the domestic market in the second half of Q3, prices surged. Concerns over a limited supply have helped to encourage an increase in the product's price in the area. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Soybean Oil was recorded to be USD 1420/MT for Ex-works Kyivin September 2022.
