For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The escalating market volatility of Crude Oil prices is having a direct impact on the prices of downstream fertilizers and crude oil refining products. In addition, the region has experienced a decrease in the inventory level of Sulphur, which has adversely affected market sentiments surrounding the product. The fertilizer and Agricultural Chemical Industry has shown no significant changes over the past week, but unfortunately, it has experienced a decline of 20%. This downturn has led to pessimism among investors in the American Fertilizers Industry, indicating that its long-term growth rates are expected to be lower compared to historical levels. The market price of Sulphuric Acid plummeted in the USA market during the second quarter of 2023 at USD 126/ton FOB Linden NJ during April. Lower consumption from the downstream fertilizers market impacted the market sentiments of Sulphur procurement as per the trader's data in the North American regional market. Investors are pessimistic about the American Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals industry, indicating that they anticipate long-term growth rates will be lower than they have historically. The industry is trading at a P.E. ratio of 8.8x which is lower than its 3-year average P.E. of 39.2x. The 3-year average P.S. ratio of 2.1x is higher than the industry's current P.S. ratio of 1.6x.
APAC
The market price of Sulphur plunged in the Chinese region to USD 125/ton Ex-Shanghai. Market watchers note that the stockpile of Sulphur grew in the region following diminished procurement by the downstream fertilizer and refinery sectors. Additionally, weaker demand caused declines in product value, which further reduced the upward pressure on prices. Traders report adequate supplies via the moderately functioning Chinese supply chain. Notably, Phosphate producers, petroleum refineries, and other fertilizer firms observed significant drops in Sulphur prices within the regional market. A deeper understanding of these market trends remains crucial to navigate this evolving landscape effectively. With a slight increase in the downstream fertilizer market, the procurement of Sulphonic Acid in the downstream sector became more dynamic, leading to a rising trend in the product amidst the supply-demand paradox. This implies that as the fertilizer market experienced a modest upturn, there was a corresponding surge in demand for Sulphonic Acid in downstream procurement activities. Consequently, the product witnessed an upward trajectory despite the conflicting forces of supply and demand. The interplay between these factors resulted in a situation where the demand for Sulphuric Acid outweighed its supply, driving the overall trend of the product to an upward trajectory.
Europe
The price of Sulphur plunged in the German market at USD 99/ton FOB Hamburg in the European region. Despite remaining steady over the past seven days, the oil and gas industry has witnessed a significant downturn of 23 % within the last year. Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a modest decline of 2.3 % annually in the coming years. These projections emphasize the volatility inherent in this particular industry and the need for careful consideration when making investment decisions. Amidst Germany's active petrochemical sector and related derivative streams likewise influenced by external pricing pressures and internal operational nuances, two primary components stand out for Sulphur-based fertilizers fabrication processes linked to crude oil quality variations altering input expenses alongside dynamic energy costs/labor contributions interconnected with variable feedstock blends serving as raw ingredients determining end merchandise pricing levels as well as gross margins sustained during routine plant operation periods. When feedstock quantities rise, there might be decreased consumption of said raw inputs resulting in subsequent surplus aggregations creating temporary overages at designated storage depot stations until either diverting excess material amounts elsewhere or implementing methods meant to reduce these unwanted excess reserves back below the intended minimum thresholds restoration stability minimum maintaining desirable product yields at satisfactory levels.
MEA
During the second quarter of 2023, the market price of Sulphur decreased to USD 101/ton FOB Doha in the Qatar market as per trade data. While the recent appreciation of the Qatar Riyal and declining oil prices may partially aid U.S. exports, various obstacles persist, such as global economic uncertainties arising from escalating inflation and wavering interest rates that could hamper export growth. Moreover, the demand for Sulphur in the Qatar market has considerably lessened, primarily in downstream fertilizer and chemical synthesis productions. This drop in procurement affected the use of Sulphur in these sectors and augmented raw material stocks, specifically Sulphur, owing to reduced product usage. Trader and merchant inventories of Sulphur have also declined in the market along with the rise in stocks of feed Crude Oil and fluctuation in the prices of the petrochemical market, according to Crude Oil data. With an increase in the supply chain, traders are rumored to have missed payments on a small number of cargoes.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The costs of Sulphur were de-escalated in the USA market, with prices ranging at USD 191/ton CFR Texas during February. Decreasing consumption has led to inappreciable demand from the downstream fertilizers market and reduced the demand pressure of the product. According to US data, the world's demand for Sulphur is continuing to decline, which relieves strain on the supply chains that power the biggest economy in the world despite an unclear future. The demand for Sulphuric Acid-based chemical processes increased the consumption of Sulphur in the local market. Additionally, there was no inventory pressure, no strong shipment position for the company, low-cost supply in the market, cautious downstream purchases, and poor and declining corporate quotations impacted the market. Additionally, downstream demand in the area remained poor. Sulphuric Acid demand was falling, and the downstream sector was having trouble.
Asia
The market value of Sulphur was depleted in the Asian market during the first quarter of 2023, with de-escalating demand from downstream fertilizers and refinery industries in the region. The supply chain situation was mild, as the merchants saw a fall in their inventory levels while still meeting the lower demand for adhesives and paints. The region's logistical industry is still feeling the effects of China's export boom, which has affected product supplies. As consumption decreased, the region's Sulphur procurement de-escalated, resulting in increased Crude oil feedstock. Market trading and investment were weak, and the overall downstream demand was weak, with insufficient support for the Sulphur market. The prices were hovering at USD 190/ton Ex-Shanghai in January as per pricing sources.
Europe
The prices of Sulphur depleted in the European market with fading supply chain problems in the German market, which are easing the downturn in the region's manufacturing sector. Weakening demand and fluctuating freight rates combine to make long-term contract negotiations difficult in the exporting US market. Sulphur inventories with traders and suppliers increased as a result of the weak Sulphur procurement in the UAE market. With the market's supply of goods being generally adequate and the downstream demand weakening, the refinery units ran with a hitch. With the industry in a state of downfall, on-site trading was sparse as the terminal market entered its off-season.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
During Q4 of 2022, the prices of Sulphur plummeted in the North American market, with costs ranging at USD 252/ton CFR Texas Sulphur (Granular) in October within the USA market. Weakening global demand and a stronger dollar pushed goods exports to a seven-month low in mid-November, suggesting that trade could dampen economic growth this quarter. The supply situation within the regional market was high, and domestic consumers could not meet their downstream requirements with lower consumption. The demand for chemical processing, including the utilization of downstream Sulphuric Acid, enhanced the consumption of Sulphur within the regional market.
Asia
The prices of Sulphur in the Asian market moved in a U-shaped manner, where prices ranged from USD 205-220/MT Ex-Shanghai Sulphur (Granular) in October, as recorded by the ChemAnalyst Research Team in China. Supply chain situations in the Chinese market were moderate, despite the resulting abundance of products in the regional market and the fall in freight charges. The demand from the downstream fertilizers market was see-sawing throughout the fourth quarter of 2022, and demand support was enough due to fluctuation in the end-uses of Sulphur. Fluctuating energy prices and supply chain disruption in China remain significant concerns that weakened consumer confidence and increased risk sentiment in financial markets affecting the prices of Sulphur.
Europe
The prices of Sulphur decreased in the European market during the fourth quarter of 2022 and were assessed at USD 169/ton FOB Hamburg in November, as per recorded by ChemAnalyst pricing team data. The domestic Sulphur market was congested, downstream demand was widespread, the development of the winter storage market was slow, the need for Sulphur was unsupported, the domestic refinery inventory was not under pressure on the supply side, and demand and supply were in equilibrium. Petrochemical market fluctuations affect fertilizer and feedstock crude oil procurement costs in the German market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The prices fell in the North American region during Q3 2022. The weak demand for Sulphuric Acid downstream supports the price movement of Sulphur. The Sulphur inventories were which led to decreasing the prices of Sulphur and caused stockpiling of the product. The weakening trend in end-user purchases from the Sulphuric Acid market has further limited prices. Indirectly, the drop-in international crude oil prices supported the cost of Sulphur on the market. The prices were hovering at USD 577/ton Sulphur Granular CFR Texas at the end of the quarter.
Asia
The prices of Sulphur fell in the Asian region during the third quarter. Within the market, there have been cheap sources of goods, tremendous pressure at on-site cargo purchases, and the pressure on the inventory of sulphur refineries was exaggerated. The quotations of various manufacturers have dropped on their available shipments in the region. The downstream fertilisers market fell weakly, and the demand for Sulphur and other Sulphur derivatives market was evident. The supply was enough in the region, increasing inventories with the traders and suppliers. Sulphur prices were assessed at USD 150/ton FOB Qingdao during September as per ChemAnalyst pricing team data.
Europe
The demand for Sulphuric Acid fell in the European market during the third quarter. Fertilizer demand from the regional market has affected the buying sentiments. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions, the disruption in supply from Russia to European regions has impacted trade. Prices fell as feedstock (Crude Oil) in the regional market with falling consumption levels. The market's end-user purchasing pattern is waning, which lowers the cost of Sulphur even more. The price is pushed lower by increased supply and available inventories of Sulphur. The market movement for the downstream Lithium Sulphur battery market in Europe is slow, further decreasing the prices of Sulphur in the regional market. The prices were hovering at USD 185/ton Sulphur (Granular) FOB Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the second quarter, the Sulphur market in the North American region continuously increased throughout the quarter. The restriction on fertilizer imports from Russia amidst the rising food pricing index forces the domestic players to lean toward the suppliers from the Middle East. The volatility in international crude oil especially demands from the region's downstream chemical intermediates and fertilizers industries. Demand for Sulphur is mainly based on chemicals in the region's pharma, chemical, and rubber industries. The price of Sulphur was recorded at USD 720/MT on a CFR Texas during the quarter ending.
Europe
The market sentiments for Sulphur witnessed an upward trend throughout the European market. With the uncertainty in crude oil and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the petrochemical commodities were affected severely. The western and European countries have imposed sanctions on Russian energy and other entities impacted more in the region. High-cost pressure from the soaring crude oil drives the Sulphur market in the region. The sturdy stance of the Russian authorities on trading the Ruble (Russian currency) has put pressure on supply disruptions to stable demand in the local market. The price of Sulphur was recorded at Euro 545/MT on a FOB Hamburg basis during the quarter ending.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter, the Sulphur market witnessed a rise and fall in the Asia Pacific region. During the quarter start Chinese domestic market had a tight supply of Sulphur due to the COVID restrictions, and high manufacturers' quotations raised the price of Sulphur and strengthened the downstream Sulphuric Acid. At the end of the quarter, the Sulphur fell slightly, and some parts of the Chinese refinery were under maintenance, supporting the cost of Sulphur in the region. Furthermore, the additional cost support from the higher logistics cost uplifts the offer for Sulphur in the Indian market. Indian authorities have visited Jordan to secure farmers' fertilizers and raw materials for the upcoming Kharif season. As a ripple effect, the Sulphur was settled at USD 580/MT on a CFR Shanghai basis and INR 40430/MT on an Ex-Mumbai basis during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the Sulphur market in the North American region remained consolidated on the back of the strong Crude offers throughout the quarter. Even after the resurgence of the omicron variant, the OPEC+ alliance remained stuck to the decision of gradually increasing the Crude Oil output that kept the market sentiments buoyed in the US domestic market. Whereas, the demand from the agricultural and chemical intermediate sectors remained persistently healthy as the restrictions of China and Russia over the exports of raw materials and the rising food pricing index changed the dynamics and kept the bullish sentiments in the regional market. Although, the CFR Texas discussions for the Sulphur granular were settled at USD 460 per tonne, during the quarter ending March 2022.
Asia Pacific
During the first quarter of 2022, the sentiments for Sulphur in the Asia Pacific region observed a significant gyration in the market dynamics as Russia started its special military operations in Ukraine. The Crude Oil market shot upwards, as the western nations were more reluctant to procure the Russian supplies and the inquiries traffic concentrated on the middle-eastern market. In response, the Crude offers levied its impact on the Sulphur market in the APAC region, although Indian refiners safeguarded their interest after procuring the Russian Urals (high Sulphur content) despite strict sanctions on Russia. Whereas, the Chinese market remained bullish amidst the lunar new year holidays and winter Olympics 2022, and the far east Asian countries were majorly impacted as the restriction hit their arbitrage with Russia. Therefore, the CFR Shangai discussions for Sulphur granular grade soared to USD 442 per tonne, in March 2022.
Europe
Overall, the European region is the most affected market due to the geopolitical turmoil in the eastern European region between Russia and Ukraine. As the sanctions made Russia isolated on a global financial stage and impacted its arbitrage with the European Union. Whereas, the European countries were reluctant to procure Russian energy materials in protest of the invasion of Ukraine. Whereas, the prevailing energy crisis hugely impacted the market dynamics, and the Suez Canal authority increased the charges by 5% which further inflated the prices of Sulphur in the European market. As a ripple effect, the CFR Hamburg pries crossed the USD 450 per tonne mark in mid-March.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The North American Sulphur market witnessed a mixed trend in the fourth quarter of 2021, the producer's offer for Sulphur remains consolidated after observing significant growth in the previous quarter. The domestic market sentiments were uplifted after Biden’s Administration announced to release the strategic Petroleum reserves as part of ongoing efforts to lower the prices of Crude Oil in the fourth quarter. As a ripple effect of the persistent demand from the downstream players, the CIF Texas quarterly average for Sulphur was assessed at USD 371 per tonne.
Asia Pacific
After the OPEC+ Alliance, ministerial-level talks concluded to gradually increase the production output of Crude Oil. The APAC Sulphur market observed a significant uptrend in the producer's quotations constantly soared driven by steadily increasing demand from the downstream players. Whereas, the high freight charges coupled with hiking pricing forced the ASEAN buyers to hold off the imports besides strengthening the wait and see sentiments in their domestic market. However, the offers witnessed a slight plunge in the second half of the quarter amidst the resurgence of the omicron variant of COVID 19. As a ripple effect, the CFR Shanghai quarterly average discussion for Sulphur granular grade was assessed at USD 312 per tonne.
Middle East
In the fourth quarter, the Middle East Sulphur market witnessed persistent growth, this is majorly attributed to the supply-demand imbalance which further coupled with the hiked freight charges. Whereas, the OPEC + Alliance decided to gradually increase the production of Crude Oil, in response the offers for Sulphur were observed to be majorly dependent on the pricing trajectory of Crude Oil. In addition, the European energy crisis provided the window for Middle East manufacturers to attain better netbacks from the European market. As a ripple effect, the FOB Doha discussions were averaged at USD 223 per tonne, during the quarter ending.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The North American Sulphur pricing demonstrated an upward trend in the 3rd quarter of 2021 followed by consistent demand from the downstream manufacturers. In terms of supply, an improvement was observed during the third quarter as refinery utilization rates remained constant at pre-pandemic levels. The demand witnessed an upward trajectory in Q3 mainly from the downstream sulphuric acid producers, fertilizer, and industrial sectors. After recovery from the extreme weather conditions in the US, the supply and demand balance improved significantly which led to an increase in Sulphur prices during Q3 of 2021.
Asia
The prices of Sulphur witnessed a significant rise throughout the Asia Pacific region in the third quarter of 2021. A major surge in Sulphur prices was observed in the Chinese domestic market during the 3rd quarter due to the strong demand from downstream fertilizer manufacturers. Increased scrutiny could be seen as global fertilizers costs soared to new records in Q3, compelled by energy crises in Europe and China. In India, market sentiments of Sulphur showcased mixed sentiments at different locations. Traders reported firm demand and consistent offtakes of Sulphur in Mumbai and Vadodara, but no significant change ushered in its prices in September due to higher inventories. The country’s Sulphur prices have been subjected to a continuous drop due to higher inventory levels at BPCL’s refinery location. Granular Sulphur CFR Vizag (India) prices declined from USD 274/MT to USD 272/MT in Q3 2021.
Europe
The regional market outlook of Sulphur showcased mixed sentiments in Q3 2021. Downstream markets suffered an increase in the prices with new record spot gas highs on Monday, 20 September, and no major relaxations to fertilizer producers. An increment in the demand was observed from downstream fertilizers and the Sulphuric Acid sector throughout the quarter. A range of European fertilizer production went offline amid record high Dutch TTF and British NBP gas prices, although the British government stepped in with short-term financial support which resulted in the resumption of one of CF Industries’ two UK fertilizer plants.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
In North America, prices of Sulphur fluctuated on monthly basis during this quarter, as the demand and supply gap kept changing month over month. During April, several refineries resumed their operations after prolonged shutdowns due to devastating winter of February, which effectively improved the supply of Sulphur in the country. In May, Sulphur prices declined effectively, as the supplies of crude-based Sulphur restored efficiently from domestic refineries. However, despite of improvement in supply chain activities, prices witnessed marginal gain in effect of rise in demand from downstream fertilizers segment in the second half of Q2. Thus, prices of Sulphur witnessed marginal surge from USD 161/MT to USD 162/MT in the mid of June in USA.
Asia
Sulphur prices surged consistently during this quarter, as the demand from downstream manufacturers remained firm in this timeframe. In Chinese market, unprecedented rise in offtakes from downstream fertilizer manufacturers amidst concerning shortage, caused the prices of Sulphur to rise effectively in the country. Meanwhile, in India, similar scenario was observed where the offtakes from downstream fertilizer manufacturers remained high to satisfy the overall demand. Therefore, a rise by more than 10% and 8% was observed in the Indian and Chinese market, where prices settled at USD 246.8/MT and USD 224/MT in India and China respectively during the month of May.
Europe
European market witnessed stability throughout the quarter, as the demand from downstream fertilizers and Sulphuric Acid sector showcased firm sentiments across the region. Besides, supply activities improved effectively supported by improved logistics and waterways operations along with the resumption in plant operation from some of the major refineries in Europe. Following improvement in demand, as supplies also improved effectively during this timeframe, prices thus showcased just a marginal revival across the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
North America’s crude-based Sulphur output was heard to be curtailed as an effect of cold snap which hit across the US gulf coast (USGC) area in mid-February. Most of the refineries remained shut during February, due to unfavourable operating conditions under freezing weather, thus the output for Sulphur significantly reduced which supported the prices. Although the demand for Sulphur from the downstream sectors remained low, but due to lack of availability and soaring crude derivatives prices, prices of Sulphur increased during February by USD 5/MT and remained stable till the end of March at USD 135/MT.
Asia
Despite of facing feeble demand from the end-user industries, prices for Sulphur followed upward trend across Asian region. Lower output from the US after freezing cold, created a global shortage for most of the prime chemicals including Sulphur, meanwhile the demand for crude-based Sulphur in the global market was high that supported its prices in the Asian region. The CFR price of Sulphur in the Indian markets hovered around USD 199.93/MT, showing gains from USD 167/MT levels in January as crude hits fresh hikes in March. Similar scenario was observed in China where the prices soared due to domestic shortage, after lunar new year holidays.
Europe
The European market faced shortage of Sulphur amid fair demand from the downstream sectors. Although the supply remained curtailed due to planned and unplanned shutdowns heard from major refineries of France and UK during this time. In addition, container shortage and high shipping freight provided further boost to the prices of Sulphur forcing international traders to resist European Sulphur stocks.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
Majority of the operations in the U.S. Sulphur market were halted towards the end of August under the fear of Hurricane Laura in the US Gulf Coast. Logistics were adversely disrupted laying a direct impact on the supplies of Sulphur across the US. Suncor Sulphur announced a planned maintenance turnaround in mid-September that further exacerbated the supply crisis in the last few weeks of September. Although burners were operated at efficient rates in tandem with strong demand pattern as a major fertilizer producer was heard announcing a massive surge in its Sulphur intakes. However, limited production restricted the export revenues of the US Sulphur market.
Asia
The Asian Sulphur market showcased mixed sentiments amidst sufficient supply and revival in the downstream demand by the end of September. China’s stocks climbed to 3 million tonnes, adhering a much higher increment as compared to its usual stock level that hovers between 1-1.5 million tonnes. Pent-up downstream demand from detergents and fungicides prompted recovery in the consumption of Sulphur in India and China. Although demand was still bearish in Q3 of 2020, but it remained way above the groundbreaking lows witnessed in the previous quarter. As confirmed by traders, Sulphur prices of remained in the range between 90-92 USD per tonne CFR China.
Europe
Extended turnarounds in refineries as a repercussion of Covid-19 restricted the supply of Sulphur across the European market. The supply also got affected under the stress of shifting to a low Sulphur fuel on various government initiatives released in concern with the increasing environmental distress. Although demand remained stable in Q3, low offtakes from the downstream capro sector delayed the revival in its overall demand fundamentals. With the economy paving its way back, the demand for Sulphur from various downstream segments is anticipated to revive prominently by the next quarter.
