For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, U.S. sunflower oil prices reflected significant volatility, shaped by evolving supply conditions, shifting demand patterns, and broader macroeconomic pressures. January began with a strong upward trajectory as constrained global sunflower seed production—driven by geopolitical tensions and adverse weather in Ukraine and Russia—led to tighter supply. The USDA projected a 10% drop in global output for the 2024/25 season, while rising soybean oil futures further supported sunflower oil’s price surge. Export prices from Houston climbed steadily, reaching $1294 per metric ton by mid-January. Shipping disruptions and higher freight rates, particularly on key China–U.S. routes, added to import cost inflation.
February saw continued bullish momentum amid tightening domestic inventories and a sharp decline in planted acreage. Oil-type sunflower cultivation dropped significantly due to poor profitability and competition from alternative oilseeds. This supply squeeze was exacerbated by strong export demand from major buyers such as China, Mexico, and the EU. Market sentiment was reinforced by speculative buying and expanding U.S. industrial activity, pushing prices higher.
By March, however, the market began to soften. Improved weather conditions supported a favorable yield outlook, stabilizing supply expectations. Simultaneously, international demand waned due to ongoing tariff uncertainties and a more cautious stance from overseas buyers. This combination of stable supply and easing demand introduced a modest but sustained downward trend in U.S. sunflower oil prices by quarter-end.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, sunflower oil prices in China recorded consistent upward momentum, driven largely by tightening global supply and evolving trade patterns. January marked the beginning of this trend, with prices rising sharply due to reduced imports from Russia—a key supplier for China. The imposition of higher Russian export duties and limited shipping activity pushed procurement costs higher, straining supply chains and signaling potential declines in import volumes going forward. Compounding this were rising freight rates and currency fluctuations, which added further complexity to pricing and procurement.
February continued the bullish trend as supply constraints persisted. Import volumes remained subdued, particularly from Russia, placing continued upward pressure on prices. Lower inflation in China bolstered consumer purchasing power, supporting demand from downstream sectors, while government-led economic stimulus measures reinforced market confidence. The combination of limited supply and stable consumption contributed to a strong price environment.
In March, the price rally intensified due to further disruptions in supply from Russia and Ukraine. Crushing operations and inventories in these regions remained weak, resulting in lower export availability. Domestically, sunflower oil demand remained robust, supported by improved industrial activity and steady consumption. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose notably, with sunflower oil a key contributor, reflecting tight global fundamentals. Overall, Q1 2025 for China’s sunflower oil market was defined by constrained global flows, resilient domestic demand, and persistent upward price pressure.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the Russian sunflower oil market experienced a sharp upward price trajectory, fueled by policy-driven supply constraints, elevated input costs, and resilient domestic consumption. January marked the onset of a bullish trend, driven by the Russian government's decision to raise export duties on sunflower oil, effectively curbing outbound shipments to secure local supply. This policy action, despite strong crushing activity, contributed to a tightening global supply environment and elevated international prices. Domestic inflationary pressures and rising transportation costs further supported price increases across the region.
In February, the upward trend continued as sunflower seed production forecasts for the 2024/25 season were revised downward, reinforcing concerns over reduced availability. The broader global surge in vegetable oil prices, including palm and soybean oil, amplified cost pressures. Despite this, export volumes remained robust in early 2025, with India and Turkey leading purchases. However, signals of import duty hikes in key destinations like India introduced uncertainty, potentially dampening speculative buying. Steady domestic consumption and increased industrial activity-maintained demand momentum.
March saw the most pronounced price gains of the quarter. Sharp increases in raw sunflower seed prices, coupled with higher export taxes and a strengthening ruble, significantly undermined export competitiveness and eroded processor margins. As a result, production slowed, and supply tightened further. While international demand turned cautious, persistent local consumption upheld market activity, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Overall, Q1 was marked by government intervention, cost inflation, and firm demand, all driving sustained upward pressure on sunflower oil prices in Russia.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American sunflower oil market in Q4 2024 demonstrated significant volatility, characterized by distinct phases of price movement. October witnessed unprecedented price escalation driven by supply-side constraints, including Black Sea region geopolitical disruptions and adverse weather conditions in major producing areas. Domestic production costs surged due to elevated agricultural inputs and reduced yields, while pre-holiday demand maintained upward price pressure.
November continued the bullish trend as U.S. production declined sharply, influenced by farmers' shift toward more lucrative crops like soybeans. The situation was exacerbated by drought conditions in European producing regions, creating a volatile pricing environment with consistently rising trends.
December marked a decisive bearish turn, triggered by increased global production volumes, particularly from Eastern European suppliers, resulting in market surplus. The strengthening USD weakened export competitiveness, while competition from alternative vegetable oils intensified downward pressure. Domestic processing margins remained stable despite lower finished product prices, supported by reduced raw material costs. These factors, combined with subdued consumer demand and heightened international competition, established a bearish market outlook by quarter's end.
Asia Pacific
China's sunflower oil market experienced significant volatility in Q4 2024, marked by a sharp price surge in October followed by a notable decline in December. The initial price increase stemmed from constrained global supply, particularly due to reduced Black Sea region harvests, with Ukraine's production falling to 5.6 million metric tons. December witnessed a 4% price reduction driven by multiple factors: increased soybean oil availability, competitive Russian supply following better-than-expected harvests, and delayed implementation of EU Deforestation Regulation maintaining steady palm and soy oil flows. The yuan's 0.77% depreciation against the USD further dampened import sentiment. Chinese buyers demonstrated strategic adaptation by utilizing existing inventories and diversifying toward cost-effective alternatives like palm and soybean oils. This shift in procurement strategy, combined with sufficient domestic stockpiles and cautious purchasing behavior, led to decreased transaction volumes throughout December. The quarter concluded with China successfully optimizing its edible oil supply chain through reduced sunflower oil dependency and enhanced portfolio diversification, effectively navigating global market uncertainties.
Europe
During the entire fourth quarter of 2024, Ukraine's sunflower oil market experienced an overall upward trend with significant price fluctuations driven by supply and demand factors. In October, sunflower oil prices rose sharply due to reduced sunflower seed harvests, worsened by adverse weather conditions like drought and storms in Eastern Europe. Ukrainian farmers also withheld stocks, anticipating higher prices, further tightening the available supply for processing. Increased international demand contributed to higher prices at Ukrainian ports. November saw continued price growth as the harvest season ended, reducing fresh supplies. Geopolitical tensions and logistical disruptions in Black Sea trade routes exacerbated export challenges, while rising energy and fertilizer costs further pressured prices. Additionally, efforts to stockpile oil for winter food security limited export volumes, intensifying the price increase. However, by December, the market shifted downward due to aggressive Russian pricing strategies, offering cheaper oil to clear inventories before a tax hike. This, coupled with subdued demand from Turkey and cautious European buyers, weakened Ukrainian prices. Operational constraints, including reduced crushing volumes and weak farmer sales, added to the bearish sentiment. While some recovery may occur post-New Year, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Sunflower Oil market witnessed a significant surge in prices, driven by a confluence of factors shaping the pricing landscape. The quarter was characterized by heightened demand from key regions, leading to supply constraints and pushing prices upwards. Factors such as disruptions in supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and plant shutdowns further exacerbated the situation, creating a tight market with limited availability.
The USA, being a major player in the market, experienced the most notable price changes, with a substantial 7% increase from the previous quarter. This surge in prices also marked a 16% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market. The quarter culminated in the latest price of USD 1053/MT for Crude Sunflower oil FOB Houston in the USA, underscoring a persistently increasing pricing trend throughout the period.
Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 for Sunflower Oil in North America can be characterized as positively trending, influenced by a complex interplay of global market dynamics.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the APAC Sunflower Oil market experienced a notable price surge, driven by a combination of supply constraints and robust demand dynamics. Weather-related challenges significantly impacted production capabilities, while reduced export availability from major producing regions further tightened market supplies. The strong uptake from various end-user industries, particularly the expanding biofuel sector, played a crucial role in sustaining the upward price momentum.
China emerged as the focal point of market activity, demonstrating consistent price appreciation throughout the quarter. The market registered a substantial 6% increase compared to the previous quarter, while intra-quarter dynamics showed a 4% price elevation between the first and second halves. This steady price appreciation persisted despite operational challenges in the form of plant shutdowns.
The market maintained a bullish sentiment throughout the period, culminating in Crude Sunflower Oil prices reaching USD 1050 per metric tonne CFR Shanghai by quarter-end. This robust price performance underscored the quarter's strong market fundamentals, characterized by tight supply conditions and sustained demand growth across the APAC region's various consumption sectors.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Sunflower Oil market demonstrated robust price appreciation, driven by a complex combination of market fundamentals. Supply tightness, coupled with strong global demand patterns, created upward pressure on prices across the region. The market dynamics were particularly influenced by production constraints, which contributed to an increasingly tight supply situation.
Ukraine emerged as the epicenter of market activity, experiencing significant price volatility and recording a notable 7% increase compared to the previous quarter. The market's resilience was evident as it maintained its upward trajectory despite operational challenges, including periodic plant shutdowns. Seasonal factors further amplified the price momentum, contributing to the overall bullish market sentiment.
The persistent supply constraints and sustained demand levels resulted in Crude Sunflower Oil prices reaching USD 970/MT FOB Chornomorsk in Ukraine by quarter-end. This price performance reflected the quarter's robust market conditions, characterized by supply limitations, heightened demand, and overall positive market sentiment across the European region's Sunflower Oil sector.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Sunflower oil pricing in North America experienced a notable surge in Q2 2024, primarily driven by a confluence of supply chain disruptions, increased downstream demand, and escalating input costs.
The market dynamics were significantly influenced by persistent supply constraints, driven by low inventory levels and heightened demand from both regional and overseas markets. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges compounded the supply issues, further propelling prices upwards. The ongoing war in key producing regions severely disrupted supply chains, leading to higher transportation costs and longer lead times, creating a challenging environment for importers thereby affecting the overall pricing landscape. Focusing on the USA, which witnessed the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend reflected a robust upward trajectory. Seasonality played a crucial role, with warmer-than-average spring temperatures driving up storage costs and impacting the pricing chart, and keeping the overall product prices on the northerly direction.
Furthermore, the correlation between increasing prices of other edible oils and sunflower oil was evident, as market participants anticipated continued price hikes. The prices when compared the first quarter were substantially high, reflecting a 9% increase. Hence, the quarter concluded with a price of USD 950/MT for crude sunflower oil, marking the end of a period characterized by a strong positive pricing environment.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable surge in Sunflower Oil prices across the APAC Region. This upward trend was driven by a complex interplay of factors, creating a dynamic and robust market environment. Demand for Sunflower Oil expanded beyond traditional markets, with non-conventional consumption areas showing increased interest. This oil's cost advantages over alternative edible oils further bolstered its appeal, contributing to the price escalation. Concurrently, persistent supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Black Sea region, exerted significant influence on the market. The global increase in freight charges added another layer of complexity to the supply constraints, collectively shaping the trading atmosphere across the region. China emerged as a focal point of this trend, with its Sunflower Oil pricing environment showing particular strength. This was primarily fueled by robust demand from downstream sectors, including food processing and biodiesel production. The appreciation of the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan further amplified import costs, exerting additional upward pressure on prices. Seasonal factors, combined with vigorous procurement activities and limited inventories, intensified the existing demand-supply imbalance. The quarter saw a remarkable 9% price increase compared to the previous quarter, with Crude Sunflower Oil closing at USD 1025/MT. This substantial price movement underscores a consistently positive pricing sentiment throughout the quarter. It paints a picture of a Sunflower Oil market in the APAC region that is not only dynamic but also operating under considerable strain, balancing strong demand against persistent supply challenges.
Europe
The European Sunflower Oil market experienced a notable upward price trend during the entire second quarter of 2024. This surge was driven by a combination of supply constraints and strong demand, creating a dynamic and bullish market environment. Several key factors contributed to this price increase. Adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall and frost, significantly impacted crop yields, particularly in Ukraine, a major producer. These weather-related challenges reduced the availability of sunflower seeds for processing, tightening supply. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions, most notably the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, severely disrupted supply chains, leading to increased production costs and decreased output. The market was further influenced by global factors such as rising freight costs and restrained sales from producers who anticipated even higher future prices. Interestingly, the attractive pricing of Sunflower Oil compared to other vegetable oils like palm and soybean oils stimulated substantial import demand, especially from the Asia-Pacific region. Ukraine, as a focal point of these market dynamics, witnessed the most significant price changes. The ongoing sowing season coincided with tightened seed availability, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. This resulted in a substantial increase in procurement costs and, consequently, Sunflower Oil prices. The quarter saw a 9% price increase compared to the first, reflecting the persistent supply-demand imbalances and heightened market sentiment. By the end of Q2, the price for Crude Sunflower Oil in Ukraine reached USD 945/MT. Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for Sunflower Oil in Europe was decidedly positive, characterized by significant price increases and a bullish market outlook. This trend was driven by a confluence of adverse supply-side factors, sustained high demand, and additional disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges.
