For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• In April 2025, the Tall Oil Price Index (FOB Houston) stood at USD 2870/MT, rising sharply due to strong demand from rubber, surfactants, and adhesives industries amid high input costs and trade-related production burdens.
• Tightening domestic availability and a shift toward renewable diesel elevated the product demand outlook significantly in April.
• Increased input prices and logistic tariffs pushed up the product production cost trend, intensifying bullish sentiment.
• Spot price transactions surged as buyers accelerated procurement to avoid future shortages.
• In May, the Price Index rose further by +2.09% m-o-m to USD 2930/MT, following China's mid-month tariff reductions that boosted U.S. exports and tightened domestic supply.
• Rebounding U.S. manufacturing further supported local Tall Oil demand, improving the product price forecast for Q2.
• However, June witnessed a steep -8.87% decline, with prices dropping to USD 2670/MT due to falling Chinese import interest, high inventories, and demand hesitation.
• Oversupply and lower downstream activity forced sellers to offer discounts, weakening the product demand outlook.
• Many distributors entered a destocking cycle, delaying restocks due to pricing uncertainty and freight shifts.
• In July 2025, the Price Index is likely to increase as spot price activity rebounds and seasonal demand triggers stockpiling across key Tall Oil derivative sectors.
APAC
• In April 2025, the Tall Oil Price Index surged by +9.52%, reaching USD 2990/MT, driven by a 34% tariff imposed on U.S. imports which tightened domestic supply and elevated the product spot price.
• April’s tariff disruption forced Chinese buyers to explore higher-cost alternatives, increasing the product production cost trend amid steady demand from adhesives and oleochemical sectors.
• The product demand outlook remained firm in April as restocking activity accelerated in anticipation of prolonged trade friction and supply uncertainty.
• In May 2025, the Price Index climbed further by +3.01% to USD 3080/MT, with Chinese importers fast-tracking purchases during a 90-day tariff suspension before its expiry on August 14.
• Soaring container spot rates, reduced vessel availability, and frontloading led to higher landed costs, further lifting the product spot price and sustaining the bullish product price forecast.
• May demand rose across adhesives, inks, and resin applications, with buyers securing stocks ahead of anticipated freight surcharges and policy shifts.
• In June 2025, the Tall Oil Price Index dropped by −12.34% to USD 2700/MT, as earlier overbuying inflated port inventories and dampened market sentiment.
• The overhang of supply and softer procurement drove down landed costs, softening the product production cost trend and leading to price corrections.
• Weakened June demand across coatings, soaps, and oleochemicals showed a wait-and-watch strategy, tempering the short-term product demand outlook.
• In July 2025, the Price Index is likely to increase again as Chinese buyers rush to finalize bulk purchases before the August tariff reinstatement, with potential port congestion further tightening effective availability.
Europe
• In April 2025, the tall oil Price Index in Finland rose by 3.25% month-on-month, reaching USD 2700/MT, driven by heightened product demand outlook from Asia and Europe, especially in renewable chemicals and industrial resins.
• Limited logistics capacity, seasonal delays, and lean inventories constrained exports, creating an imbalance that intensified the upward movement in the product spot price for tall oil.
• Despite stable production, April saw weakened forward visibility, encouraging traders to adopt cautious inventory strategies amid volatile product production cost trend considerations.
• May 2025 saw a 2.59% decrease in the Price Index, as frontloaded procurement in April led to subdued export orders from major buyers in Sweden and the Netherlands.
• Although Finnish suppliers maintained high output and inventories, weak downstream demand and ample buyer stockpiles triggered aggressive price cuts to maintain liquidity.
• The product demand outlook in May dimmed, especially in adhesives, inks, and resins sectors, as European processors had already fulfilled their seasonal requirements.
• By June 2025, the Price Index dipped another 2.09% to USD 2575/MT, pressured by ongoing oversupply and weak international demand, especially in the alkyd resin and ink segments.
• End-of-quarter inventory clearances and a wait-and-watch approach by overseas buyers intensified selling pressure, pulling down the product spot price further.
• The product price forecast for July 2025 suggests a modest recovery, as June’s liquidation helped reduce inventory backlogs, allowing Finnish producers to stabilize margins and raise quotes slightly.
• With supply pressure easing and competitive intensity reduced, the Finnish tall oil Price Index is likely to increase in July 2025, marking a potential turnaround in market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, Tall Oil prices in the USA experienced a mixed trend. In January, prices saw a moderate rise driven by a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing activity, which boosted demand for industrial products like adhesives and biofuels. Higher energy costs also contributed to the increase, while concerns about a potential strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) led to stockpiling, further pushing prices up. However, the strike was called off, easing supply disruption fears.
In February, prices continued to rise due to strong export demand and tightening domestic supply, with buyers accelerating orders in anticipation of retaliatory tariffs. This was supported by expanding manufacturing activity and the ongoing U.S.-EU trade tensions.
By March, Tall Oil prices declined as both domestic and international demand weakened. Foreign buyers reduced orders after stockpiling in February, and U.S. manufacturing contracted amid concerns over tariffs, leading to a decrease in consumption. This combination of factors contributed to a downward pressure on prices, marking a shift in market sentiment by the quarter's end.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, Tall Oil prices in China exhibited fluctuations influenced by supply constraints, demand dynamics, and trade policies. In January, prices increased modestly due to supply limitations and heightened demand from sectors like nutraceuticals and healthcare. Anticipating potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, importers stockpiled Tall Oil, creating upward price pressure. February saw further price increases, driven by logistical disruptions from the Lunar New Year holidays, which caused delays in shipments and depleting inventories. The imposition of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by China further raised import costs, tightening supply. Despite port congestion easing in late February, demand from adhesives, paints, and biofuels kept prices elevated. In March, prices declined as supply conditions improved, bolstered by a stronger yuan that reduced import costs. However, weaker demand, partly due to cautious importer behavior amid anticipated tariff adjustments, contributed to a subdued market. Overall, Q1 2025 was marked by volatility in Tall Oil prices, influenced by global trade tensions, cautious import behavior, and shifting demand dynamics.
Europe
Tall Oil prices in Finland experienced marked volatility throughout Q1 2025. In January, prices declined sharply due to weak domestic consumption, subdued industrial activity, and inflationary pressures across the Eurozone. The strengthening Euro further diminished international competitiveness, prompting market participants to lower price quotes. In February, prices rebounded significantly as the industrial strike in Finland’s chemical sector disrupted production, notably halting operations at UPM’s Kymi pulp mill, tightening Tall Oil supply. Simultaneously, labor unrest at major European ports hampered exports, raising logistics costs and supporting price increases. Demand remained stable, underpinned by consistent procurement from adhesives, coatings, and biofuels industries. However, in March, prices fell again following the restart of pulp production at UPM’s Kymi facility, which improved supply availability. Despite this recovery, Tall Oil exports remained constrained due to lingering port congestion across Northern and Southern Europe. The resulting procurement delays dampened buying momentum, limiting upward price movement. Overall, Q1 2025 for Finland’s Tall Oil market was characterized by demand stability, supply-side disruptions, and fluctuating logistics, resulting in a price pattern marked by a sharp January decline, a February surge, and a March correction.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Tall oil prices in the U.S. experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by a combination of economic factors and market dynamics. October saw a decline in prices, largely due to economic uncertainty, weakening demand, and concerns about inflation. These factors dampened consumer sentiment and business confidence, prompting a cautious market environment that resulted in reduced demand and price cuts to encourage sales.
November brought a rebound in prices, fueled by increased domestic demand as businesses ramped up production in preparation for the holiday season. Optimism, bolstered by improved consumer confidence and post-election stability, combined with a recovering global market and stable freight conditions, helped lift prices. However, inflationary pressures and rising production costs in the paper and pulp industry continued to put upward pressure on prices.
By December, prices fell once again, driven by a decline in consumer confidence and lower demand from key end-user sectors. A proactive inventory buildup in anticipation of potential labor strikes helped maintain high supply levels, contributing to the price drop. In sum, Q4 2024 saw a volatile Tall oil market, marked by fluctuating prices driven by shifting demand, cautious consumer behavior, and strategic inventory management.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, Tall oil prices in China exhibited significant volatility, shaped by a variety of market forces. October experienced a price decline due to weak domestic demand, an oversupply of international stock, and heightened competition from foreign suppliers. Geopolitical uncertainties made Chinese buyers more cautious, leading to a reduction in imports and pushing prices lower. November saw a slight recovery, as demand from key industries such as adhesives, coatings, and oleochemicals remained steady. Additionally, proactive inventory buildup ahead of the holiday season helped stabilize the market, supporting a brief price uptick. However, December saw prices decline once more. The downturn was driven by disinflationary pressures, reduced demand in crucial sectors like paper and textiles, and an oversupply of stock caused by increased imports and preemptive stockpiling. The combination of these factors resulted in another round of price erosion. In summary, Q4 2024 in the Tall oil market in China was characterized by fluctuating prices, with periods of decline followed by brief rebounds. These trends were largely influenced by changes in demand, geopolitical factors, and seasonal supply chain adjustments.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Tall oil market in Finland experienced a mix of price fluctuations driven by evolving demand and supply dynamics. In October, prices saw a slight increase, influenced by improved business morale, rising consumer confidence, and the European Central Bank’s interest rate cuts, which boosted spending and investment. Suppliers also built up inventories ahead of the holiday season, and global shipping disruptions added supply pressure. November saw a more pronounced surge in prices, fueled by higher demand from sectors like chemicals, paints, and coatings, coupled with stockpiling in anticipation of a seasonal slowdown. The depreciation of the euro further heightened price pressures as exports became more attractive. However, in December, prices declined due to reduced demand from key sectors, buyer hesitancy amid inflation concerns, and sufficient inventory levels. Additionally, harsh winter weather and logistics disruptions slowed consumer spending, leading to a cautious market approach and a subsequent drop in Tall oil prices as suppliers focused on clearing existing stock.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Tall Oil market in North America experienced a notable depreciation in prices, with the USA particularly feeling the impact of significant factors. A combination of subdued demand from end-user industries, a slowdown in manufacturing activity, and an overall deflationary environment contributed to the downward trend in Tall Oil prices.
Improved weather conditions, easing supply chain disruptions, and sufficient supply levels further added to the pricing pressure. The quarter saw disruptions in plant operations [names of plants/shutdowns], which also influenced market dynamics.
The USA, with the most substantial price changes, recorded a -12% decrease from the previous quarter and a -7% difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. This negative trend aligns with the overall decreasing sentiment in the North American Tall Oil market. The quarter concluded with Crude Tall Oil priced at USD 640/MT FOB Houston in the USA, reflecting the challenging pricing environment characterized by a bearish outlook and subdued market conditions.
APAC
The Quarter 3 of 2024 for Tall Oil in the Asia Pacific region witnessed a significant decline in prices, primarily influenced by weakening demand and adverse weather conditions. The market experienced a downturn due to sluggish consumer sentiment and falling prices, reflecting a broader economic slowdown. Disruptions from heatwaves and heavy rainfall further reduced industrial operations, contributing to the overall decrease in Tall Oil prices. China, in particular, saw the most significant price changes, with the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the USD making imports cheaper and reinforcing the downward trend in prices. Throughout the quarter, the market trended negatively, with a notable -3% decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, a -6% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter highlighted the continuous downward trajectory. Plant disruptions along with distinct operational output further added to supply constraints. The quarter culminated with Tall Oil priced at USD 2900/MT CFR Shanghai, signaling a challenging pricing environment in the region.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable surge in Tall Oil prices across Europe, with Finland emerging as the epicenter of price volatility. This upward trend was driven by a complex interplay of market forces. On the demand side, both local and international buyers showed strong interest, buoyed by increased consumer spending power as inflationary pressures eased. The upcoming holiday season prompted retailers to bolster their inventories, maintaining steady demand levels throughout the quarter.
Supply-side constraints emerged from a slowdown in manufacturing activities, creating a market imbalance that pushed prices higher. The quarter exhibited dynamic pricing patterns, with a 5% increase observed between its first and second halves. Despite operational challenges, Tall Oil prices at FOB Helsinki reached USD 2630/MT by quarter's end. While this represented a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trajectory remained positive, demonstrating the market's underlying strength.
This price movement pattern particularly highlighted Finland's crucial role in the European Tall Oil market, underlining its resilience amid changing market conditions.
FAQs
1. What caused the significant rise in Tall Oil prices in North America during April 2025?
The sharp increase in April’s Tall Oil Price Index (FOB Houston) to USD 2870/MT was largely attributed to heightened demand from key downstream sectors like rubber, surfactants, and adhesives. This demand uptick coincided with rising input costs and logistical tariffs, which strained domestic production. Additionally, a growing shift toward renewable diesel applications pushed up the product's demand outlook, and tighter availability in the U.S. prompted buyers to accelerate procurement, leading to a bullish market sentiment.
2. Why did the upward price momentum continue into May 2025?
In May, the Tall Oil Price Index rose further by 2.09% to USD 2930/MT. The increase was fueled by improved export competitiveness after China reduced tariffs mid-month, leading to stronger outbound trade from the U.S. This tightening of domestic supply, along with a rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity, sustained demand for Tall Oil and maintained upward pressure on prices. Spot transactions remained active, supported by strong performance in end-use industries.
3. What led to the sudden price crash in June 2025?
June saw a sharp reversal, with the Price Index falling by 8.87% to USD 2670/MT. The decline was primarily driven by a cooling of Chinese import interest and high product inventories in the domestic market. As prices softened, many distributors chose to delay restocking and entered a destocking phase, further reducing spot demand. Lower activity from downstream processors and freight rate adjustments added to bearish sentiment, pushing prices down sharply.
4. How did supply and production dynamics shift over Q2?
The first half of the quarter was marked by tight availability and rising production costs, which supported bullish trends. However, by June, oversupply became a significant concern as previously frontloaded inventories began weighing down the market. With buyers adopting a cautious approach, sellers were forced to offer steep discounts to remain competitive, especially as demand remained muted across adhesives and resin segments.
