For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Tall Oil Rosin prices have witnessed a see-saw trend in the North American market during the first quarter of 2024. During the initial of Q1 2024, Tall Oil Rosin prices have inched lower in the US market as prices decreased in the exporting market. Additionally, demand from the downstream paints and coating industry was tepid as consumption from the construction sector has slowed down amid unfavourable economic conditions which weighed down the prices of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market.
As per the market sources, new listings of homes for sale dropped 1.2% last month, marking the first decline since last June and a slowdown from December's 4.2% gain. The main reason behind the slowdown has been more subdued expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has in turn kept mortgage rates high. In addition, demand from the rubber market fundamentals also remained weak, as it faced downward pressure from weak derivatives from the key automotive market. However, during the middle of Q1 2024, Tall oil Rosin prices have recovered.
The inquiries from the rubber, as well as the paper and pulp industry, have increased as consumption from the automotive sector has improved, leading to the bullish market sentiments of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market. The downstream manufacturing firms have been returning from the winter holiday seasons and were focused on replenishment the raw materials to supplement the downstream production, reinforcing the market fundamentals of Tall Oil Rosin. Meanwhile, imports from the exporting market have turned costly as prices increased in the exporting market, Brazil which in turn led to high import prices of Tall Oil Rosin in the Indian domestic market. However, towards the end of Q1 2024, Tall Oil Rosin prices have declined due to the weak demand from the downstream industry. Despite the supply constraints, the material availability was sufficient to meet the downstream demand which weighed down the prices of Tall Oil Rosin.
Asia- Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific market during the first quarter of 2024, Tall Oil Rosin prices showed a varied pattern. Initially and through the middle of the quarter, prices in China rose due to limited supply caused by planned and unexpected plant shutdowns, alongside rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea. These factors added pressure to China's already struggling economy, facing challenges like a property crisis, weak consumer demand, a declining population, and slow global growth. Moreover, increased feedstock prices ahead of limited supply raised the production cost of Tall Oil Rosin, supporting its price uptrend domestically. However, demand from downstream industries like paints, coatings, and rubber was subdued due to sluggish consumption in the automotive and construction sectors. In addition, overseas inquiries also decreased due to macroeconomic challenges. Additionally, the Lunar New Year and downstream business weaknesses prompted early factory shutdowns, limiting demand improvement. Furthermore, buyers remained cautious, preferring minimal restocking. Towards the end of Q1 2024, feedstock prices began to decrease, lowering the production cost of Tall Oil Rosin and leading to a downtrend in domestic prices. The persistent decline in demand from both domestic and international markets further depressed Tall Oil Rosin prices.
Europe
Tall Oil Rosin prices have continued to decline in the German market during the first quarter of 2024. The demand for Tall Oil Rosin from the downstream paints and coating as well as from the rubber industry has remained subdued which weighed down the prices of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market. As per market sources, the German construction Purchasing Manager Index dropped from 39.1 in February to 38.3 in March 2024, indicating a further sharp decrease in construction activity. Meanwhile, new orders dropped at a slower pace, but demand continued to be constrained by a combination of tight financial conditions, high prices, and market uncertainty. Furthermore, the persistent inflation and high-interest rates have further impacted the purchasing power of consumers, further weakening the demand for Tall Oil Rosin. In addition, the spot market transactions were also average as the enthusiasm of terminal firms to enter the market was not strong. Despite the Red Sea crisis and high freight charges, the material availability was sufficient to meet the downstream demand, contributing to the downtrend price realization of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North- America
Tall Oil Rosin prices in the US market have seen a significant decline during the fourth quarter of 2023 as prices decreased in the exporting market. The inquiries from downstream sectors such as paints, coatings, adhesives, and the paper and pulp industry have remained lackluster, reflecting slower-than-expected consumption in the domestic market. This has resulted in a pessimistic outlook for Tall Oil Rosin among manufacturers.
Furthermore, market reports indicate that subdued demand continues to exert pressure on sellers, with buyers either making limited purchases as needed or adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating potential further declines. Additionally, in November, U.S. inflation decreased again, primarily attributed to lower gas prices, providing some relief from consumer price increases. Anticipating a continued decline in inflation, the US Federal Reserve opted to maintain its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the third consecutive time.
Towards the end of the year, manufacturers hesitated to procure additional volumes of Tall Oil Rosin. On the supply side, despite the drought in the Panama Canal, imports from the Brazilian market remained robust in the US market or ports, contributing to an abundance of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market. Overall, the combination of weak demand and oversupply has facilitated a downward trend in prices within the US market.
Asia- Pacific
Tall Oil Rosin prices in the Asian market displayed mixed trends throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. In the early and mid-Q4 2023, prices experienced a decrease in the Chinese market. The Tall Oil Rosin market in China encountered challenges due to increasing supply, decreasing costs, and notably, persistent slow downstream demand. Decreases in feedstock prices, driven by sustained weak demand, resulted in a lower manufacturing cost of Gum Rosin, supporting a downtrend in domestic market prices. Additionally, inquiries from the downstream paints and coating industry remained subdued as consumption from the construction sector slowed down domestically, contributing to bearish market sentiments among tall oil Rosin manufacturers. Market sources reported a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% in national real estate development investment from January to November. However, towards the end of Q4 2023, Tall Oil Rosin prices gained an upward momentum in the domestic market. This shift was prompted by increased feedstock prices due to a tight supply, leading to higher production costs for Tall Oil Rosin domestically and subsequently raising the prices of Tall Oil. Furthermore, owing to low operating rates and production costs in the previous quarter, material availability was limited. This limitation encouraged manufacturers to revise their quotations and adjust prices accordingly.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, Tall Oil Rosin prices in the German market have consistently experienced a decrease. The drop in feedstock prices has resulted in lower production costs for tall oil Rosin domestically, creating a negative outlook among manufacturers. Moreover, the market has been influenced by macroeconomic challenges, including persistent inflationary pressure and heightened interest rates, which have diminished the purchasing power of end-users. This has led to subdued inquiries from downstream sectors such as paints, coatings, and adhesives, as consumption from the end-user construction sector has decreased domestically, further contributing to the decline in tall oil Rosin prices. Spot market transactions have been relatively average, with a lack of strong interest from terminal firms to enter the market. Concurrently, manufacturing firms have operated at reduced rates, indicating the ongoing lack of improvement in demand from the downstream industry within the domestic market. The German manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index has consistently remained in the contraction zone (i.e., below 50 points), indicating a deterioration in industrial and production activity. Despite these challenges, there has been an ample availability of materials, encouraging manufacturers to destock inventories at discounted prices as a strategy to navigate the market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Prices of Tall oil Rosin have continued to drop in the US market during the third quarter of 2023. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate in the US accelerated for a second straight month to 3.7% in August from 3.2% in July, on the back of high energy prices. This rise in inflationary pressures has further taken a toll on the purchasing sentiments of the end-use industries. Meanwhile, demand for tall oil Rosin from the downstream paints and coating, adhesives, and sealants has remained steady as consumption from the construction industry has remained moderate in the domestic market. The downstream procurements were mainly based on small orders. However, demand from the automotive, paper, and pulp industry have remained active, but it was insufficient to drive the price realizations of tall oil Rosin to the higher side in the domestic market. Furthermore, high material availability in the US ports or market via the steady inflows of cheap imports from Brazil (exporting market) has led to supply supply-dominant market.
Asia- Pacific
Throughout the third quarter of 2023, tall oil Rosin prices have witnessed a downward trend in the Chinese market supported by weak demand and abundant inventories in the domestic market. China’s economy has been struggling to gain momentum since a hoped-for post-zero-covid policy rebound failed to materialize. The demand from the downstream paints and coating, adhesives industry has remained tepid amid sluggish consumption from the end-user construction industry which weighed down the prices of tall oil Rosin. The lukewarm demand has kept exerting pressure on the seller’s side as buyers either made limited purchases when needed or stayed in a wait-and-see perspective in the projection of additional decline. At the same time, demand from overseas markets has also been observed on the weaker side amid feeble buying trends. As per the market sources, China's exports declined in September amid lukewarm global demand for Chinese goods and muted domestic demand. Export rates declined by 6.2% in September, compared with the previous month. Although offtake from the automotive, paper, and pulp industries have increased due to the high level of inventories among the manufacturers, prices of tall oil Rosin were operated at a low level in the domestic market.
Europe
Tall oil Rosin prices have inched lower in the German market throughout the third quarter of 2023 on account of inadequate demand dynamics and sufficient inventories in the domestic market. The persistent high inflationary pressure along with high interest rates have eroded the purchasing power of end-users. Meanwhile, demand for Tall Oil Rosin from the downstream paints and coating, adhesives has remained subdued due to sluggish consumption from the end-user construction industry. As per the data, the German construction Purchasing Manager’s Index significantly declined from 41.5 in August to 39.3 in September, reflecting the challenging demand conditions faced by constructors amid higher borrowing rates and uncertainty among customers. Although, demand from the paper and pulp industry has remained active it had limited bearing over the prices of tall oil Rosin in the domestic market. In addition, the manufacturing firms were operating at low rates as demand from the downstream industry had not fully recovered in the domestic market. On the other side, Germany's manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index remained in the contraction zone, indicating a deterioration in the industrial and manufacturing activity. The availability of tall oil rosin was sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand which weighed down the prices of tall oil Rosin in the domestic market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Tall Oil Rosin prices have showed fluctuating trend in the US market during the second quarter of 2023. During the first half of second quarter, Tall Oil Rosin prices have increased backed by limited material availability and rise in downstream demand. The imports from the Brazil (exporter of tall oil Rosin) have remained weak as the US ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles have witnessed a shortage of labours and dockworkers which eventually led to a shutdown of the ports, thus limit the supply in the domestic market. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream automotive and construction industries have increased. As per the sources, new home sales jumped 12.2% in May and were up 20% year-over-year. May sales grew at the strongest pace since February 2022, thus the demand for Tall Oil Rosin have increased in the domestic market. Although, during the second half of second quarter, Tall Oil Rosin prices have inched lower amid tepid demand from the construction industry while the availability of finished stock of Tall Oil Rosin have sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Tall Oil Rosin have shown mixed sentiments in Asia's biggest economy, China during the second quarter of 2023. In April, Tall Oil Rosin prices inched higher in the Chinese market. The cost support from feedstock Pine Woods remained sufficient, as reported by market participants. The inquiries from downstream automotive, paper, and pulp industries have increased from the domestic and international markets. As per the sources, China passenger vehicle sales increased by 2.1% in April from a month earlier. However, in May and June, Tall oil Rosin prices declined substantially in the domestic market amid weak feedstock prices. Furthermore, the contraction in economic activities across the domestic region of China has weakened the market growth of major manufacturing sectors, including construction. Although, demand from the other sectors like printing inks, the paper industry, and automotive have moderate in the domestic market and it didn’t lead to price increased in the domestic market. In addition, the availability of finished stocks of Tall Oil Rosin was adequate to meet the overall downstream demand, weighing down the prices. In addition, the decline in the inflation rate as well as the ease of labour costs has further dragged down the prices of Tall Oil Rosin in the domestic market.
Europe
Tall Oil Rosin prices have inched lower in the German market throughout the second quarter of 2023 backed by limited demand and sufficient inventories. The global headwinds such as firm inflationary pressure and rising interest rates by the central bank have impacted the market growth of Tall Oil Rosin. The demand for Tall Oil Rosin from the downstream construction sector has continued to decline in the domestic market which weighed down the prices of Tall Oil Rosin. As per the sources, Germany's construction purchasing managers index declined to 41.4 in June from 43.9 in May, indicating a contraction zone. Although procurement from the automotive, paper, and pulp industries have remained moderate, it didn’t lead to an increase in the price realization of Tall Oil Rosin. Furthermore, the ample material availability via the steady imports from the Asian and other exporting nations have been steady in the German ports. In addition, the freight charges from East Asia/China to Europe declined by approximately 9% in June which further supported the Tall Oil Rosin to follow the downtrend in the domestic market. In addition, Specialty chemicals company LANXESS also expects second-quarter 2023 EBITDA pre-exceptional to remain below average market expectations. LANXESS now expects the weakness to continue in the second half of 2023 especially in the construction sector which may further impact the prices of several commodities including Tall Oil Rosin.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Tall oil Rosin prices have witnessed a mixed trend in the USA market during the first quarter of 2023. During January, Tall Oil Rosin prices declined due to weak spot demand and firm material availability in the domestic market. In addition, imports from Brazil (exporter) have remained firm, thus leading to better material availability on the USA shores. The demand for Tall Oil Rosin from the downstream paints and coating, and adhesives industries has remained gloomy while the sufficient supplies to cater to the overall domestic demand. However, during February and March, Tall oil Rosin prices increased due to improved buying sentiments in the domestic market. The procurement from the downstream paper and ink industries has risen but at a slower pace. At the same time, imports have dropped from the exporting country as the production was hampered in Brazil amid carnival holidays, thus limiting the supplies in the USA market, which forces the traders to raise their price quotation.
Asia- Pacific
Tall oil Rosin prices have showcased an oscillating trend in China market during the first quarter of 2023. In the first two-month of 2023, Tall oil Rosin prices have dropped due to dull buying sentiments and ample supplies in the market. Operating rates in China have remained moderate due to weak consumption from downstream industries. In addition, cost pressure from the feedstock Pine trees has remained stable throughout the quarter. On the other side, demand from downstream adhesives, paints, and coating, rubber industries has slowed down both domestically and overseas, and market participants have reported limited new orders from end-users. However, the adequate inventories of the product have led manufacturers to revise their negative price quotations in the domestic market. However, due to increased procurement from the downstream paper, the ink industry has resulted in the high prices of Tall Oil Rosin towards the end of Q1.
Europe
The prices of Tall Oil Rosin have decreased in the German market during the first quarter of 2023. This can be attributed to sluggish demand from downstream industries, adhesives, paints, and coating industries amid ongoing holidays in the European markets. Additionally, imports from Italy and other exporting countries have remained steady. As a result, there is ample material availability in the domestic market, owing to firm imports and stable production rates. Moreover, the already bearish sentiment in the regional market has been further weakened by the recent US banking crisis and the latest Credit Suisse debacle. In contrast, the German market has witnessed a decline in PMI for March 2023, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 44.7, signifying a monthly dip of 3.6%, and remaining in contraction.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Tall oil Rosin prices decreased in the US market throughout the fourth quarter of 2022 on the back of adequate material availability and weak downstream demand. Furthermore, the dramatic decline in freight charges resulted in cheap imported materials. In addition, the performance of the adhesives and automotive industry remained comparatively weak during this quarter, which constrained the consumption of Tall Rosin oil. Meanwhile, the supply chain has operated normally, which leads to better material availability in the domestic market. For the first time in 30 months, the USA witnessed a contraction in industrial and manufacturing activity as consumer sentiments softened while Federal Reserve continued tightening the monetary policy to control inflation rates.
Asia-pacific
Tall Oil Rosin prices dropped in the Asian market throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. In China, Tall Oil Rosin decreased owing to the subdued demand from the downstream automotive and other competitive industries amid the sluggish consumer sentiment in the domestic market. Furthermore, under the influence of persistent lockdown implementation and the zero covid policy, manufacturers have started facing a labor shortage coupled with supply chain disruption, which majorly pertains to logistical constraints. In addition, manufacturing activity declined in Q4 as Covid-19 outbreaks continued to weigh on both output and demand. According to the data, purchasing manufacturing index dropped below 50 (i.e., 49.4), signifying a contraction in manufacturing and industrial activity. Similarly, in the Indian market, both imported and domestic products have been priced lower. Demand from the downstream industries has remained bearish, resulting in the price drop of tall oil rosin.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2022, prices of Tall Oil Roisin have witnessed a downward trend in the European market. The primary factor for the price decline was the steady inflows of cheap imported materials from the exporting countries. Demand from the downstream automotive, adhesives along with other competitive industries, has remained bearish amid sluggish buying sentiment in the region. Meanwhile, the threat of recession has eased in Q4. As per the data, inflation in Europe dropped from 10.1% to 9.2% in December 2022. In terms of domestic production, operating rates remained under check due to weak demand, while supply chain dynamics have improved in the European continent with no major port congestions. Hence, accelerating the availability of imports and inter-European transportation, respectively.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Tall Oil Rosin prices have continued to decrease in the North American region throughout the third quarter of 2022, backed by weak demand dynamics and a continuous drop in feedstock prices. Demand from the downstream adhesives, paint, and coating industries has dropped amid the high inflation rate. Meanwhile USA, supply dynamics remained under pressure as the major exporting port of Houston witnessed port congestion, resulting in the limited availability of the material in the domestic and overseas markets. However, low offtakes from the European and other importing countries resulted in little influence on the overall price dynamic of Tall Oil Rosin. As a result, the price of Tall Oil Rosin plunged by 4-5% during September 2022.
Asia- Pacific
Tall Oil Rosin prices have witnessed a downward trajectory in the Chinese market during the third quarter of 2022. Sufficient inventory levels and a drop in feedstock prices resulted in a sharp bearish trend. Demand from the downstream paint and coating adhesives industries has been lackluster. At the same time, demand from the overseas market has also dropped amid a slowdown in global economic activity. Further, China's battle with Covid in Q3 2022 as the market activities remained under constant threat of covid related disruptions. At the same time, port activities were also halted due to the rise in covid cases. As a result, Tall Oil Rosin FOB Huangpu prices dropped by approximately 3-4% during September. On the other side, in the Indian market, Tall oil Rosin prices showed mixed trends due to fluctuation in the demand dynamics. During July, prices dropped by 1.7% due to weak demand from the downstream industries amid sufficient inventory levels. However, prices have increased due to limited imports from exporting countries like China, resulting in restricted material availability. Demand from the downstream paint and coating, and adhesives industry has improved. Hence, as a result, prices of Tall Oil Rosin Ex- Kandla were assessed at USD 1793/MT during September 2022.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2022, Tall oil Rosin prices have gained downward momentum in the European market owing to the weak feedstock prices. A steady flow of cheap imports from Asia and the USA has contributed to the price drop in the regional market. Demand from the downstream adhesives, paint, and coating industries has declined due to sluggish consumer sentiments in the European region. Although, Supply dynamics remained under pressure owing to port congestions and labour strikes. Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany witnessed major port congestions, while the UK observed weeks of labour strikes which limited the availability of the material in the domestic market. Although, weak demand ensured the limited impact of the reduced supply on the prices. Hence, as a result, prices of Tall Oil Rosin dropped by 3-4% in Germany during September 2022.
