For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the pricing of Tallow Fatty Acids in the North American region, particularly the USA faced considerable declines. This downturn was primarily driven by decreasing raw material prices, alongside ongoing economic uncertainties that affected consumer demand for personal care items.
The month of January started with a bearish trend influenced by high stock levels and diminished demand, putting downward pressure on Tallow Fatty Acid prices. Furthermore, the steady demand from the personal care sector sent mixed signals regarding potential price stabilization. However, in February, prices dropped further due to hesitant buying patterns stemming from inflationary concerns and waning consumer confidence, which squeezed profit margins for the producers.
March persisted with this negative trend, as a more pronounced decline occurred due to oversupply issues and weak demand in the cosmetics industry, compounded by the impact of tariff increases. Overall, the Tallow Fatty Acid market faced ongoing pricing difficulties marked by high inventory levels, decreased consumer spending, and cautious market sentiment, indicating a challenging environment for manufacturers and suppliers as they navigate the upcoming quarter.
APAC
The quarterly price trend for Tallow Fatty Acid in the APAC region, particularly China, showed a dramatic evolution during Q1 2025. Prices initially declined in January due to weak demand driven by sluggish consumer spending in the personal care sector and economic uncertainty. Brands faced increased competition, leading to lower prices as sellers aimed to clear excess inventory.
In February, the market remained challenged, with prices continuing to fall as oversupply, coupled with declining feedstock costs, exacerbated the situation. Buyer sentiment was cautious, focusing on immediate needs rather than bulk orders, which further depressed prices. Despite some resilience in the luxury segment, overall demand for Tallow Fatty Acid was subdued.
However, March marked a positive shift where prices increased by 3.3%. Factors such as limited supply chains and heightened trading activities contributed to this upward trend. Significant e-commerce growth and stable demand from major global brands revitalized the market. As brands like Nivea reported a 7.4% growth in sales, the personal care industry's robust demand for Tallow Fatty Acid in premium formulations underscored an optimistic outlook for the upcoming quarter.
In a nutshell, Q1 2025 saw initial price declines in Tallow Fatty Acid, followed by stabilization and growth in March, driven by solid demand from the personal care sector and improved market sentiment.
Europe
The tallow fatty acid market in the European region, particularly Germany exhibited a downward trend throughout the first quarter of 2025, largely influenced by an overabundance of supply and weak demand conditions. January commenced with prices facing downward pressure, triggered by a notable decrease in raw material prices. By the end of January, the Tallow Fatty Acid market revealed signs of volatility, exacerbated by economic uncertainties, even though there were some areas of marginal growth in the personal care sector.
In February, prices continued to fall as suppliers grappled with an oversupply situation, resulting in cautious purchasing behaviors prevalent among buyers. Many market participants preferred short-term restocking rather than committing to bulk orders due to ongoing economic volatility and trade tensions that were affecting consumer sentiment.
March saw prices decline further, mirroring the prevailing uncertainty in the market. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions placed additional downward pressure on tallow fatty acid demand, with major retailers adjusting their forecasts downward amid falling consumer confidence. Overall, Q1 2025 underscored considerable challenges for the fatty acid sector in Germany, driven by external economic influences and shifting consumer behaviors.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Tallow fatty acid prices in the USA exhibited remarkable stability throughout Q4 2024, a trend directly reflecting the consistent performance of the North American personal care sector. October's steady demand, supported by moderate retail sales growth, maintained stable pricing. This stability continued into November, despite strong Black Friday e-commerce sales, as rising raw material costs and supply disruptions necessitated strategic pricing and inventory management within the personal care industry. The countervailing pressures of increased demand and rising input costs effectively neutralized each other, preventing price fluctuations.
December witnessed robust growth in the US personal care sector, particularly within e-commerce. While sales of high-ticket items surged due to a combination of competitive discounts and inflation-driven price sensitivity, the price of tallow fatty acid remained unchanged. This suggests that personal care manufacturers effectively absorbed the increased demand through existing inventory and strategic pricing strategies. In essence, despite heightened demand, manufacturers managed to avoid passing on increased costs to consumers or experiencing significant price pressure on raw materials.
The overall stability of tallow fatty acid prices throughout Q4 2024 underscored the resilience of the North American personal care sector. Consistent sector performance, even amidst challenges such as supply disruptions and rising input costs, translated into stable demand for tallow fatty acid, preventing significant price volatility. The shift towards e-commerce, while significantly boosting sales, did not disrupt this stability, thanks to the effective inventory management and strategic pricing employed by manufacturers.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Tallow Fatty Acid market in the APAC region, particularly China experienced a sustained price increase driven by a confluence of factors. Post-Golden Week holiday demand in October, coupled with depleted inventories, created a supply-demand imbalance, pushing prices higher. The personal care sector's growth further fueled this upward trend.
November witnessed continued price escalation due to robust export demand from India and the US, fueled by their respective festive seasons. Steady domestic demand from China's personal care sector also contributed. December brought further price increases as supply constraints intensified. Production bottlenecks and severe port congestion led to shipment delays and higher transportation costs, exacerbating the situation despite moderate personal care sector demand.
In essence, Q4 2024 presented a bullish market characterized by strong demand (both domestic and export) and significant supply-side limitations. Market participants faced considerable challenges managing supply chain disruptions, fluctuating demand, and increased transportation costs resulting from port congestion. The interplay of these factors created a volatile market environment throughout the quarter.
Europe
The price of tallow fatty acid in Europe exhibited a steady trend in October, which remained consistent throughout November and December, resulting in a less pronounced overall quarterly change than initially projected.
In October, moderate demand from the personal care sector drove minimal fluctuations in prices for tallow fatty acid. However, in November mixed dynamics emerged. While increased festive shopping boosted retail activity in the personal care sector, rising manufacturing costs of the raw materials counteracted this positive effect by raising production costs for personal care manufacturers. This supply-side pressure likely limited the price increase of tallow fatty acid compared to October.
Demand remained moderate in December, consistent with the overall sluggishness of the European personal care sector. While niche segments and Black Friday promotions provided some sales growth, the overall year-on-year retail sales growth was minimal.
The European personal care sector's performance impacted tallow fatty acid prices. Steady demand translated to stable prices. Conversely, challenges within the personal care sector, such as increased input costs and economic uncertainty constrain demand and, consequently, moderate price changes for tallow fatty acid. The subdued growth in the European personal care market during Q4 2024 indicated a less significant overall price change for tallow fatty acid than initially anticipated.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American market, particularly in the USA experienced mixed pricing trend for Tallow Fatty Acid. The consistent inquiry levels from the personal care sector provided a foundation for a relatively stable market. This sector's demand helped to offset some of the fluctuations caused by other factors.
The approach of the holiday season led to a natural decline in purchasing activity as manufacturers scaled back operations. This seasonal reduction created fluctuations in pricing as suppliers adjusted their strategies to manage inventory and cash flow. Despite reduced purchasing efforts, the availability of sufficient tallow supply helped to stabilize prices in certain segments. Suppliers were able to fulfil existing contracts without significant disruptions, preventing more pronounced price increases.
The mixed pricing trends for Tallow Fatty Acid in Europe during Q3 2024 were primarily driven by a combination of stable demand from the personal care sector and seasonal fluctuations in purchasing. The availability of sufficient tallow fatty acid supply helped to prevent more significant price increases. However, cost pressures from raw materials created challenges for some manufacturers, leading to adjustments in their pricing strategies.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a downward trend in Tallow Fatty Acid pricing, with China notably witnessing the most significant price changes. Several key factors influenced this market shift. Reduced demand from the personal care sector played a pivotal role, leading to an oversupply of Tallow Fatty Acid and subsequently pressuring prices downwards. The impact of Typhoon Gaemi disrupted supply chains, causing delays in production and export schedules. Moreover, manufacturing firms operating at limited capacities during holidays resulted in a slowdown in production, contributing to a slight tightening of supply. Disruptions like plant shutdowns also added strain to the market. In China specifically, the market exhibited a consistent decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The overall trends pointed towards a negative sentiment, with seasonality and market correlations aligning with the decreasing price environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were notably lower. The quarter-on-quarter comparison recorded a significant decrease of 3%, with prices showing a decline of 1% between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 1370/MT of Tallow Fatty Acid FOB Shanghai in China, reflecting the prevailing downward pricing trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Tallow Fatty Acid market experienced a mixed pricing trend influenced by several key factors. While there was steady demand from certain sectors, such as personal care, overall inquiries varied significantly. Some end-users scaled back purchases due to economic uncertainties and seasonal changes, creating a dynamic market environment. Although there was sufficient availability of tallow fatty acid, regional supply chain disruptions, including logistical challenges and production slowdowns, created inconsistencies in supply. This contributed to localized price variations as some manufacturers faced difficulties in sourcing adequate raw materials. The competitive dynamics among manufacturers further contributed to the mixed pricing trend. While some companies raised prices in response to cost pressures, others aimed to attract customers by keeping prices stable, resulting in varied pricing across different regions and product grades. The mixed pricing trends for Tallow Fatty Acid in Europe during Q3 2024 reflected a complex interplay of fluctuating demand, supply constraints, and upstream cost pressures.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Tallow Fatty Acid market faced a combination of challenges and stability. Demand from downstream industries, such as personal care and cleaning products, remained average. However, production costs were pressured by higher wage demands and tight labor conditions. Despite these challenges, the steady supply of raw materials helped mitigate some cost pressures. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts added a layer of uncertainty, impacting market sentiments and procurement strategies.
Furthermore, in mid-Q2, tight monetary policies across the USA, driven by the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% amid persistent inflation and a tight labor market, limited economic activity and purchasing power, leading to cautious procurement practices.
Despite these headwinds, the availability of upstream raw materials was sufficient to meet the moderate demand from downstream industries. With no major turnaround in procurement volumes, the operating rates of manufacturing firms remained under pressure. The absence of significant disruptions, such as plant shutdowns, ensured stable supply chains throughout the quarter. Overall, Q2 2024 for Tallow Fatty Acid was marked by average demand, rising production costs, and economic challenges, resulting in a stable yet challenging market environment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Tallow Fatty Acid market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by a confluence of factors. The quarter was marked by heightened manufacturing costs due to rising energy prices and increased freight rates, which created upward pressure on the Tallow Fatty Acid market. Additionally, the market was influenced by a tightening supply chain as numerous downstream manufacturers undertook maintenance activities, leading to reduced production rates. As a result, there was a scarcity of finished goods, further exacerbating the price hikes. The economic recovery in the region, coupled with proactive fiscal policies, also spurred demand, particularly from the personal care sector.
In China, this trend was especially pronounced, with significant price movements reflecting the broader economic dynamics. The quarter saw a marked increase in prices, influenced by moderate production during public holidays and high raw material costs, prompting some producers to initiate maintenance to mitigate inventory burdens. The Tallow Fatty Acid market in China displayed seasonality, with a notable correlation in price changes throughout the quarter.
The overall pricing environment in Q2 2024 remained positive, driven by consistent demand and strategic maintenance activities. The quarter concluded with Tallow Fatty Acid prices at USD 1450/MT FOB Shanghai, reflecting a robust market sentiment. No specific plant shutdowns were reported during this period. This ascending trend is indicative of a bullish market outlook, characterized by firm demand and constrained supply.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the Tallow Fatty Acid market faced numerous challenges. Demand from major downstream sectors, such as personal care and cleaning products, remained weak, which negatively affected the overall market outlook. The slow recovery in the personal care industry, along with sluggish economic activity, kept demand for Tallow Fatty Acid below expectations.
However, A significant factor that eased production costs was the decline in natural gas prices, which reduced overall manufacturing expenses and helped offset some economic pressures. Despite these favorable conditions, the market faced challenges due to stringent monetary policies that suppressed economic activity and limited purchasing power. This environment led to cautious procurement practices and a conservative approach by manufacturers.
Despite these challenges, the supply of upstream raw materials, including tallow, was sufficient to meet the limited demand from downstream industries. However, the operating rates of downstream manufacturing firms had not returned to pre-pandemic levels, contributing to the overall weak demand. In summary, Q2 2024 for Tallow Fatty Acid was characterized by subdued demand, and economic challenges, creating a difficult market environment.
