For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) Price Index in China increased marginally by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, settling at USD 1,040/MT FOB Qingdao by the end of June 2025.
• Why did the price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol change in July 2025 in China? TBA prices remained under pressure due to ample domestic supply, weak gasoline blending demand, and reduced export momentum, especially after forward bookings to Southeast Asia slowed in late May.
• TBA Demand Outlook: Gasoline demand remained muted, with increasing EV penetration and soft road fuel consumption limiting blending activities. Solvent and pharmaceutical-grade TBA consumption provided modest support but was insufficient to offset broader weakness.
• TBA Price Forecast for Q3 2025: A flat-to-soft pricing trajectory is expected, with little upside unless gasoline demand rebounds during summer travel. Export activity and crude oil movements will remain key watchpoints.
• TBA Production Cost Trend: Feedstock isobutylene prices remained volatile due to shifts in MTBE margins and global crude oil benchmarks. Yellow phosphorus and energy input costs softened slightly, aiding margins, but excess inventory still pressured netbacks.
• TBA Manufacturing & Supply Dynamics: TBA production rates in Shandong hovered around 55–60% of capacity through June. Exports to Southeast Asia and the Gulf tightened supplies briefly in early May but restarted plants and low domestic offtake replenished stockpiles quickly.
• Fuel/Gasoline Sector: Despite seasonal gasoline blending, MTBE inclusion rates stayed flat near 9%. The rise in EV adoption and subdued holiday travel activity capped gasoline consumption and limited upward pressure on TBA demand.
Europe
• Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) Price Index in Germany rose by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, settling at USD 1,730/MT FOB Marl.
• Why did the price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol change in July 2025 in Europe? Prices showed no major movement as isobutylene supply stayed constrained, but demand from solvents and MTBE-blending remained soft. Imports from Asia and the U.S. helped balance inland availability.
• TBA Demand Outlook: Steady but unremarkable offtake was observed from the solvents, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals sectors. Automotive and coatings demand failed to rebound, curbing incremental purchases.
• TBA Price Forecast for Q3 2025: Prices are expected to remain stable-to-weak, depending on isobutylene tightness and any macroeconomic stimulus in the manufacturing sector. Without stronger industrial demand, upside remains limited.
• TBA Production Cost Trend: European feedstock costs eased slightly in May and June as Brent crude fell, and naphtha prices declined. However, persistent isobutylene shortages and reduced refinery C4 cuts kept TBA production constrained.
• TBA Manufacturing & Supply Dynamics: Marl-based producers ran TBA units at ~60% capacity. Domestic output was supplemented by cargoes from the U.S. Gulf and Asia. Forward-looking supply tightness is expected due to BP’s planned crude run reductions.
• Fuel/Gasoline Sector: While summer gasoline blending lifted baseline MTBE usage in the ARA hub, inland demand stayed subdued. This offered limited support to TBA pricing via the MTBE route.
North America
• Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) Price Index in North America remained broadly flat through Q2 2025, assessed at approximately USD 1,570–1,590/MT FOB USG by the end of June.
• Why did the price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol change in July 2025 in North America? Prices remained steady amid consistent contract-based sales and a muted spot market. Stable isobutylene feedstock pricing and balanced supply-demand fundamentals capped price volatility.
• TBA Demand Outlook: Demand from solvents and pharmaceutical intermediates remained steady. However, MTBE blending demand was weak due to declining gasoline consumption and growing EV market share.
• TBA Price Forecast for Q3 2025: A flat-to-soft trajectory is expected unless summer gasoline demand exceeds expectations.
• TBA Production Cost Trend: Input costs for isobutylene and energy remained stable in Q2, while feedstock availability was unaffected by hurricanes or shutdowns. Refining margins stayed compressed, discouraging any production ramp-ups.
• TBA Manufacturing & Supply Dynamics: U.S. Gulf Coast producers operated plants at moderate rates, with utilization averaging 65–70%. Inventory positions were manageable, and imports from Asia were minimal. Export activity to Latin America remained slow but steady.
• Fuel/Gasoline Sector: U.S. gasoline consumption in Q2 remained below pre-pandemic norms. MTBE blending remained limited to export-oriented production, as domestic use is restricted.
• The seasonal driving season offered modest support, but EV adoption and high fuel efficiency capped additive demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In the first quarter of 2025, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in North America demonstrated a largely stable yet subdued performance, influenced by a combination of moderate demand and ongoing supply chain constraints. Domestic production remained steady, but the region continued to rely on imports to supplement inventory levels. Demand across key downstream sectors in North America was generally weak, with macroeconomic uncertainties and cautious industrial activity persisting throughout the quarter.
The automotive and construction industries, important consumers of TBA for applications such as MTBE and solvents, showed limited growth, reflecting broader economic slowdowns. Consumer confidence remained low, and industrial output in these sectors failed to show any significant recovery. On the other hand, demand from the pharmaceutical and industrial cleaning sectors continued to provide some stability for the TBA market. These sectors helped maintain a steady off-take, which balanced out the slower growth in other areas.
In particular, the pharmaceutical industry’s demand for TBA in drug formulation and industrial cleaning applications contributed to the market's resilience. The fuel and gasoline markets offered some minor support to TBA consumption, with seasonal blending activity providing a slight boost in demand for MTBE, a major TBA derivative. However, elevated inventory levels throughout the quarter acted as a buffer against any substantial upward pressure from raw material costs, ensuring that TBA prices remained stable.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in China showed modest upward movement influenced by fluctuating energy markets, feedstock dynamics, and variable demand trends. The market experienced small but consistent price increases early in the quarter, primarily driven by strong cost support from feedstock MTBE, which was affected by supply tightness and improved gasoline blending demand. Crude oil price volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions, continued to influence the broader petrochemical cost structure.
Domestically, TBA production remained stable, although some manufacturers adopted cautious inventory strategies in response to weak post-holiday procurement and mixed terminal gasoline demand. Refineries in Shandong operated at moderate rates, while national facilities maintained higher utilization, contributing to overall supply stability. However, sporadic disruptions and export activities later in the quarter tightened availability and encouraged price firming.
Demand was supported by TBA’s application in fuel additives and solvents, particularly as seasonal factors like the Spring Festival and colder weather drove short-term gasoline consumption. Nonetheless, increasing new energy vehicle adoption and refined oil market uncertainties limited long-term optimism. The MTBE market’s performance remained a key influence, showing occasional gains despite a weak gasoline outlook. Cautious procurement behavior and refined oil market fluctuations persisted throughout the quarter, leading to small-scale TBA market fluctuations without significant price volatility.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2025, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in Germany exhibited limited upward movement, mainly supported by constrained European isobutylene supply and stringent inventory control. Although production remained stable domestically, the market continued to rely on imports to maintain manageable inventory levels. European energy costs, while still relatively high, began to ease gradually in late 2024, providing some cost relief for TBA production.
The German manufacturing sector showed signs of deceleration in its downturn, with a slower pace of decline in production, new orders, and inventories. This slight improvement in sentiment hinted at economic stabilization but had a limited immediate impact on TBA consumption. Demand from the automotive and construction industries, both significant consumers of TBA for applications like MTBE and solvents, remained low. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and industrial cleaning sectors continued to ensure steady offtake, helping to cushion the effects of broader market weakness.
Fuel and gasoline-related demand offered modest support to the TBA market, with seasonal factors slightly boosting blending activity. The MTBE segment, a major derivative of TBA, maintained consistent demand, showing no major fluctuations. Elevated inventory levels throughout the quarter offset the upward cost pressures from raw materials, limiting any significant price momentum. Overall, the quarter was marked by subdued consumption, cautious sentiment, and a balanced yet restrained market environment.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory. The prices began to increase in October, driven by a combination of factors, including rising feedstock costs, particularly crude oil prices, and increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications.
This upward trend was further supported by supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges, impacting supply availability. However, prices declined sharply in November, primarily due to subdued demand from the downstream sector, driven by factors such as reduced industrial activity and cautious spending. This downward trend was further exacerbated by declining demand from key downstream sectors, driven by factors such as reduced industrial activity and cautious spending.
Additionally, the impact of declining crude oil prices, a key factor influencing demand for gasoline blending, further contributed to the downward price trend. Subsequently, prices rebounded slightly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications, and limited isobutylene supplies. This upward trend was further supported by increased demand from the automotive sector, driven by seasonal factors such as increased vehicle production and holiday travel.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the APAC market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) experienced fluctuating price trends influenced by seasonal demand, crude oil price volatility, and oversupply conditions. October began with an upward trajectory in TBA prices in China, supported by rising inquiries from other Asian countries and seasonal demand for petroleum products. However, a subsequent downturn ensued, with prices plunging by 6.8% during Golden Week due to reduced crude oil prices, weak demand, and oversupply. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel initially heightened market uncertainty but eased as tensions subsided, resulting in bearish pressure on crude oil prices. By November, TBA prices FOB Qingdao dropped 0.9%, reflecting weak consumer demand and declining gasoline terminal consumption. Higher plant operating rates contributed to oversupply, keeping prices subsided despite moderate downstream activity in MTBE production. In December, prices remained stable, with balanced supply and demand dynamics. Seasonal factors, such as colder temperatures in northern regions, led to increased private car usage and moderate support for gasoline-related products. However, cautious inventory management by operators and declining restocking enthusiasm in the downstream MTBE market limited broader price recovery.
Europe
The European Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, driven by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a period of price increase driven by rising feedstock costs, particularly upstream crude oil prices, and increased demand from the downstream sector. However, prices declined sharply in November, primarily due to subdued demand from key downstream sectors, driven by factors such as sluggish industrial activity and economic pressures within the region. This downward trend was further exacerbated by declining demand from key export markets and increased competition from other exporters. Subsequently, prices rebounded slightly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications, and limited isobutylene supplies. This upward trend was further supported by increased production costs and strict inventory management. Despite these challenges, the European TBA market demonstrated some resilience, with factors such as growing demand from the pharmaceutical and industrial cleaning sectors supporting market stability towards the end of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in the North American region showed a mixed trend, with prices fluctuating throughout the period. In the early weeks of the quarter, TBA prices remained relatively stable, despite global crude oil market volatility. The upstream crude oil prices were affected by easing tensions in the Middle East, contributing to a steady environment for TBA pricing.
Low demand in downstream sectors, particularly in solvents and petrochemicals, also helped maintain price stability during this period. However, in the last two months, TBA prices in the region saw a significant volatility, influenced by supply challenges, weak industrial output and cautious consumer activity. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation.
Rising crude oil prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions and tighter supply, created increased cost pressure, driving up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA stayed low, prompting higher purchases to address immediate demand. This upward trend persisted into September, with additional price hikes supported by growing consumer spending and heightened industrial activity.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, TBA prices in the APAC region noted mixed pricing trend with China being most volatile market. Initially, upstream crude oil prices saw a decline, largely driven by a significant drop in US crude oil futures, resulting in lower overall oil prices. Downstream sectors, particularly solvents and chemicals manufacturing, experienced increased activity in the region. Following the end of maintenance periods in Asian markets, there was a surge in consumption and restocking, boosting demand. Demand from downstream industries, especially in solvents and chemicals manufacturing, improved across several consumer markets, while Europe saw a continued decline. Gasoline terminal demand remained strong, supported by increased travel and air conditioning fuel consumption, signaling robust gasoline demand. In the short term, MTBE demand benefited from these favorable conditions and overall economic recovery, alongside growing consumer activity, which fueled rising fuel consumption. Consequently, both gasoline and MTBE saw increased demand driven by these trends. Despite volatility in the crude oil market, global oil prices continued to trend downward, influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors, leading to a complex and uncertain outlook for oil prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in Europe have mostly remained on an uphill trend. In the initial weeks, the German domestic market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) saw declining prices due to weak consumer demand and a surplus in supply, despite tight availability of upstream raw materials like Ethylene. Import delays from the USA and Asia further pressured prices. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation. Reports indicated low demand and a lack of new orders, influenced by sluggish economic growth and reduced consumer spending. However, in the last two months, rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tighter supply led to increased cost pressure, which pushed up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA remained low, and purchases rose to meet immediate needs. This trend continued into September, with further price increases driven by growing consumer spending and industrial activity. Despite the price hikes, overall demand remained moderate, with the economic environment continuing to affect new orders. Although some companies planned price increases and production expansion, nearly half reported insufficient orders.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
1. What is the current price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in APAC?
As of June 2025, prices in China were assessed at USD 1,040/MT FOB Qingdao.
2. What is the current price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in Europe?
As of June 2025, prices in Germany held flat at USD 1,730/MT FOB Marl.
3. What is the current price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in North America?
North American prices remained steady through Q2 2025.
4. Why did TBA prices change in July 2025?
o APAC: Prices likely fell due to oversupply, sluggish MTBE demand, and weak exports.
o Europe: Prices were flat with constrained feedstock but stable consumption.
o North America: Prices remained steady amid contract-driven demand and balanced supply.
