For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Toluene Price Index rose by 1.67% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter inventories and exports.
• The average Toluene price for the quarter was approximately USD 832.00/MT on FOB Texas basis.
• Toluene Spot Price firmed as Gulf export demand offset gasoline blending weakness and restrained demand.
• Toluene Price Forecast shows modest upside near-term due to Mexican outages and sustained crude volatility.
• Toluene Production Cost Trend rose as crude draws and higher freight increased refining economic pressures.
• Toluene Demand Outlook strengthened from export-led gasoline blending needs, while domestic industrial demand remained moderate.
• Toluene Price Index volatility moderated as refinery throughput stayed high, inventories balanced with restocking activity.
• Inventory builds and just-in-time buying limited immediate upside, while scheduled maintenance may tighten availability soon.
Why did the price of Toluene change in September 2025 in North America?
• Export demand surge from Mexican refinery outages increased US toluene liftings and tightened regional availability.
• Higher crude and freight costs elevated production expense, supporting upstream cost pass-through into Toluene prices.
• Robust refinery operating rates sustained supply, while lean inventories and cautious restocking influenced Price Index.
APAC
• In Japan, the Toluene Price Index fell by 5.05% quarter-over-quarter, driven by weak downstream demand trends.
• The average Toluene price for the quarter was approximately USD 989.33/MT on Ex-Osaka basis.
• Toluene Spot Price remained range bound mostly as steady imports and refinery output limited Price Index volatility.
• Toluene Price Forecast indicates modest seasonal recovery into Q4 supported by gasoline blending and restocking.
• Toluene Production Cost Trend eased as lower naphtha reduced input costs despite firmer crude benchmarks.
• Toluene Demand Outlook remains muted with weak coatings, adhesives, and TDI offtake limiting upside potential.
• Regional inventories rose due to discounted imports, pressuring spot offers and lowering Toluene Price Index.
• Major refiners ran steady while export competition from Korea and China influenced Price Index dynamics.
Why did the price of Toluene change in September 2025 in APAC?
• High refinery outputs amid ample feedstock availability reduced supply tightness, removing risk premiums and pressuring prices.
• Soft industrial demand from coatings, adhesives and TDI curtailed offtake, prompting sellers to lower quotations.
• Discounted imports and weaker exports elevated inventories, weakening demand and extending bearish Price Index trends.
Europe
• In Spain, the Toluene Price Index fell by 3.77% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting moderate to weak downstream demand and oversupply.
• The average Toluene price for the quarter was approximately USD 852.00/MT, FD Madrid settlement reported level.
• Toluene Spot Price remained range-bound due to port congestion and elevated logistics costs limiting export flows.
• Toluene Price Forecast indicates modest recovery pressure into Q4 as seasonal restocking offsets remaining demand weakness.
• Toluene Production Cost Trend firmed with higher crude, EU ETS allowances lifting extraction and refining costs.
• Toluene Demand Outlook remains subdued, with adhesives, coatings, and automotive sectors delaying procurement into late Q3.
• Toluene Price Index volatility narrowed as refiners prioritized contract volumes, keeping spot discounting, and destocking visible.
• Inventory levels stayed adequate, export demand muted, while regional refineries maintained normal runs without outages reported.
Why did the price of Toluene change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Weak domestic demand and downstream softness reduced procurement, exerting downward pressure on toluene quarter-end prices.
• Rising crude and EU ETS costs lifted production expense, tightening margins, and supporting toluene price levels.
• Port congestion and elevated logistics costs constrained exports, reducing arbitrage, and creating supply tightness in September.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Toluene Price Index fell by 5.4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by weak downstream demand.
• The average Toluene price for the quarter was approximately USD 957.00/MT based on CFR assessments.
• Toluene Spot Price showed mild upticks owing to brief port congestion and seasonal construction demand.
• Toluene Price Forecast indicates volatility ahead as mixed Asian demand and Q4 feedstock dynamics evolve.
• Toluene Production Cost Trend eased with softer Asian naphtha, reducing upstream cost support across producers.
• Toluene Demand Outlook remains muted as paints, TDI, solvent sectors delay buying amid export uncertainty.
• Toluene Price Index volatility reflected inventory management, export arbitrage and distributor buying ahead of seasonality.
• Steady imports and controlled refinery run supported supply while distributors paced restocking to manage exposure.
Why did the price of Toluene change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Easing crude softened feedstock costs, reducing producer price support, and thereby encouraging lower regional bids.
• Imports from South Korea remained steady, offsetting domestic refinery cuts and preventing spikes.
• Weak offtake from paints, TDI and petrochemical sectors suppressed spot demand, prompting conservative buyer behavior.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• U.S. Toluene Spot Price was generally range-bound during Q2 2025, with the Price Index showing little in weekly fluctuation as market fundamentals were well-balanced.
• Prices experienced minimal movement because of soft demand from solvents and gasoline blending markets in spite of modest support from increasing crude oil prices and consistent refinery production.
• The Toluene Demand Forecast remained weak, with industrial segments continuing to have lower purchase levels in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and easing business in the coatings and adhesives markets.
• The Trend in the Production Cost of Toluene was fairly flat. Feedstock prices increased due to crude oil strength, but high refinery efficiency and ample reformate availability served to neutralize upward pressure.
• Throughput was consistent in Q2. There were no significant process disruptions at reformate-producing facilities, and toluene extraction levels from catalytic reforming streams continued at levels corresponding to demand levels.
• The Toluene Price Forecast indicated continued sideways movement unless downstream demand strengthened significantly. Inventory levels remained manageable, suggesting no near-term pricing risk.
Asia-Pacific
• In South Korea, the Toluene Spot Price weakened during Q2 2025, with the Price Index falling gradually as both regional and export demand slumped.
• Prices declined due to sluggish demand from downstream benzene conversion and solvent segments. Exports to China remained subdued, especially during the Labour Day holiday period in early May.
• The Toluene Demand Outlook was bearish during the quarter, with major end-use sectors operating cautiously. End-user buyers largely avoided forward purchases due to volatility in aromatics prices.
• The Toluene Production Cost Trend trended slightly downward. Falling naphtha prices in April and May reduced cost pressure, though rising maritime freight rates provided some offset.
• Toluene supply stayed adequate. Local refiners ran at reduced rates to manage oversupply, and inventory levels at major ports such as Yeosu and Ulsan remained within historical norms.
• The Toluene Price Forecast at the close of Q2 expected limited recovery potential without stronger pull from the Chinese blending and solvent markets. Mild price fluctuations were anticipated through early Q3.
Europe
• Germany’s Toluene Spot Price showed minor volatility during Q2 2025, with the Price Index fluctuating slightly in response to crude oil price movements and slow trading activity.
• Prices remained largely depressed, as demand from solvents, pharmaceuticals, and chemical intermediates remained weak. European buyers stayed cautious amid uncertain macroeconomic indicators.
• The Toluene Demand Outlook was weak throughout Q2. End-users in the coatings and resin segments operated below average, and automotive-sector consumption of toluene-based chemicals remained subdued.
• The Toluene Production Cost Trend rose slightly due to higher LNG and power input prices. However, local toluene production was adjusted downward, helping to avoid inventory overhang.
• Supply remained stable. Imports into Northwest Europe were consistent, and refinery runs produced sufficient toluene, albeit with lower extraction rates due to economic run cuts.
• The Toluene Price Forecast remained flat for the near term, with only a modest chance of upward movement unless Asian blending demand or domestic downstream consumption picked up meaningfully.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025, toluene prices in North America showcased mixed trends. A major drop was witnessed towards the quarter end, influenced by weak upstream cost support, ample inventories, and subdued demand across key downstream sectors.
The sustained decline in crude oil and naphtha prices lowered production costs, allowing stable but subdued domestic output. Despite improved refinery margins and enhanced aromatics extraction efficiency, market sentiment remained bearish. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace, with stable production levels and some signs of demand recovery, but concerns over employment, order backlogs, and a potential port strike added uncertainty.
Demand for toluene from sectors like Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI), paints, coatings, and solvents remained soft, while the polymer and styrene segments showed limited resilience. Trade tensions and the expiration of a tariff pause heightened supply chain concerns, prompting a temporary increase in shipments but ultimately reinforcing cautious buying behavior. Inflationary pressures, a strong U.S. dollar, and geopolitical factors also contributed to the challenging environment. Overall, Q1 2025 was marked by price declines and muted market activity, with expectations of further weakness unless macroeconomic conditions and feedstock markets show signs of sustained recovery in the coming months.
APAC
During Q1 2025, the toluene market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a predominantly bearish price trend, influenced by multiple macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges. South Korea, a key market, experienced significant price fluctuations driven by weak demand, increased imports, and falling feedstock costs due to declining crude oil and naphtha prices. Although domestic production remained steady, cautious procurement and sluggish activity in downstream sectors such as aromatics, polymers, and solvents exerted downward pressure on prices. The Lunar New Year holiday in late January further dampened market momentum, slowing trading and demand recovery. Across APAC, refinery margins tightened and oversupply concerns persisted, particularly in China, where economic volatility and trade uncertainties limited growth in industrial demand. The construction sector showed mixed recovery signs, with infrastructure projects providing limited support to toluene demand. Meanwhile, fluctuating crude oil prices and cautious market sentiment weighed heavily on the region’s petrochemical markets. Despite brief rebounds due to supply disruptions and firming demand expectations, overall sentiment remained cautious. As a result, toluene prices in APAC declined over the quarter, with only minor, short-lived gains seen in response to temporary supply constraints and sector-specific demand improvements.
Europe
In Q1 2025, toluene prices in the European market exhibited a volatile, shaped by limited market fundamentals, erratic energy policies, and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The quarter began with stable prices, but sluggish industrial activity, high energy costs, and softened demand—especially from European paints, coatings, and solvent sectors—gradually pressured the market downward. Fluctuating crude oil and naphtha prices, crucial feedstocks for toluene significantly influenced production costs. While domestic output remained steady, ample inventories, cautious procurement, and increased imports at competitive rates limited fresh buying. However, tight supply in the Mediterranean region prompted intra-European trade, offering some short-term price support. A recovering construction sector and rising infrastructure investments provided a modest uplift in demand, particularly for toluene-based adhesives and coatings. With occasional rebounds, such as in early February, continued volatility in energy markets and geopolitical stress, along with potential energy crises and inflationary pressures, hindered a sustained recovery. As a result, toluene prices in Europe remained on the higher side, with stabilization expected only if demand strengthens in Q2.
MEA
Toluene prices in Saudi Arabia displayed increased movements throughout Q1 2025, shaped by a combination of stable production costs, subdued demand, and fluctuating feedstock dynamics. The quarter began with relatively stable pricing, supported by lower naphtha and crude oil costs. However, weak downstream demand—particularly from sectors like Toluene Diisocyanate, solvents, and polymers—limited any substantial price gains. Mid-quarter, prices showed some upward momentum due to temporary supply constraints and tight naphtha availability, but this was short-lived as rising imports and global economic uncertainties, especially surrounding the US-China trade relationship, pressured prices downward again. With steady domestic production, weak international demand and increased supply from Asian markets intensified the bearish sentiment. The polymer and construction sectors, key demand drivers for toluene, also underperformed amid global headwinds, adding to the caution among buyers. Overall, the Saudi toluene market in Q1 2025 was marked by volatility, with potential for recovery hinging on improved demand and stabilization of the global economic and energy landscape in the months ahead.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the U.S. toluene market experienced a period of stability, with prices maintaining a steady trend despite some fluctuations. The decline in production costs and sufficient stockpiles contributed to a steady supply, which helped stabilize prices. However, the market faced logistical challenges following the strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association, which led to delays in shipments and raised concerns about potential p rice declines. The slower pace of toluene orders and inquiries from downstream sectors, such as Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) production and solvent applications, resulted in a cautious demand outlook, further maintaining price stability.
Despite some growth in the U.S. construction industry, with steady construction costs, the broader economic conditions and the expected economic slowdown in 2024 dampened demand in several sectors. The construction industry's uncertain future affected the overall demand for toluene, leading to a more tempered market outlook. Meanwhile, naphtha prices remained on the softer side, and inventory levels remained stable, limiting any significant price swings.
Overall, the U.S. toluene market in Q4 2024 saw declined prices, with logistical disruptions and moderate demand influencing the market dynamics.
APAC
In Q4 2024, toluene prices in the APAC region, particularly in China and South Korea, experienced a steady decline due to fluctuating demand and stable supply conditions. In China, toluene prices held steady during the first week of October, driven by reduced demand from end-use industries such as Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) production and polyurethane manufacturing. While supply remained sufficient, concerns over future stockpiles and an uncertain supply-demand outlook led to cautious market sentiment, contributing to slight price drops.
In South Korea, toluene prices dipped as well, impacted by soft demand from downstream industries like paints, coatings, and solvents. Naphtha prices also remained low, influencing production costs and price stability in the region. Logistical challenges, including high freight costs, further added downward pressure on toluene prices. Despite strong domestic production, reduced demand from the automotive and construction sectors, along with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, restrained price increases.
Throughout the quarter, the overall demand for toluene from sectors such as TDI, solvents, and coatings remained moderate, contributing to a stable yet declining price trend in the APAC market.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European toluene market faced ongoing challenges with declining prices, primarily driven by weak demand and ample inventories. During early October, toluene prices in Germany continued to decrease due to high stockpiles and balanced demand from industries such as TDI, acetone, phenol, and other aromatics. Despite some growth in Germany's industrial production, the broader market showed signs of slowdown, especially in key sectors.
Demand from the construction sector, a major consumer of toluene for paints and coatings, remained subdued. The sector, particularly housing, struggled with ongoing difficulties. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuations in crude oil prices exerted further pressure on toluene prices, despite a brief recovery in oil prices.
The European market continued to experience weak demand across the chemical industry, leading to an oversupply of toluene. This resulted in a bearish market outlook, with prices expected to stay subdued unless there was a significant recovery in demand in the near future. The overall market sentiment remained cautious, with participants anticipating slow growth moving into 2025.
MEA
In Q4 2024, toluene prices in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region faced downward pressure, primarily due to weak demand and market uncertainty. In Saudi Arabia, toluene prices declined as demand from downstream sectors, including styrene and aromatics industries, remained soft. Despite a steady supply, price fluctuations and freight costs from the Asian market influenced the final price outlook. The domestic paints and coatings sector saw only minor price adjustments amid stable stock levels and moderate demand.
The broader market sentiment was bearish, with the outlook for toluene remaining subdued. Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices added to the challenges, impacting supply chains and contributing to pricing pressures. The region's reliance on the Asian market further amplified the impact of external price dynamics and freight costs.
Manufacturing dynamics in Saudi Arabia remained strong, with robust domestic production, but weak demand from key industries such as TDI, paints, and coatings dampened growth. As the region navigated these challenges, cautious market players focused on managing inventories, awaiting potential shifts in demand moving into 2025.
