For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the market prices of Toluene in the US domestic market rode a downward trajectory in the first two months and later stabilized in March. Throughout this quarter, the cost support from the upstream crude oil fluctuated, and the demand outlook remained uncertain. In January and February, the prices dropped amid sluggish procurement rates in the downstream paints and solvents industries and the decline in freight charges; thus, the pricing trend progressed in a downtrend. In March, the supply and demand gap of Toluene narrowed down, and the demand from the downstream derivatives segment and other related industries rose slightly, stabilizing the market dynamics of Toluene in the US market. Thus, the prices of Toluene FOB Texas settled at USD 1125 per tonne at the end of the first quarter.
APAC
In the Chinese domestic market, the overall market sentiments for Toluene remained bullish in the first half of Q1 2023. In the first two months, the prices increased as the manufacturing activities improved, the covid restrictions eased off in the region, and the demand from the downstream benzene, xylene, and other derivative industries escalated. The domestic manufacturers operated at the usual pace, and adequate availability of upstream crude oil ensured stable production rates, thus strengthening the market fundamentals for Toluene. In March, the overall supply and demand dynamics for Toluene stabilized amid adequate inventories in the region, and a firm demand outlook was observed from the downstream paints, coatings, and solvents industries. Consequently, the market prices of Toluene Ex-Shanghai settled at USD 1041 per tonne at the end of the first quarter.
Europe
In the European market, the prices of Toluene showcased mixed market sentiments in Q1 2023. The market prices of Toluene surged in January amid a rise in the procurements from the downstream solvents, paints, and coatings industries in the region, whereas the cost support from the upstream Crude oil firm and abundant supplies were maintained to meet the overall demand from the end-use industries. In February, the market prices stabilized in the region as oversupplies of Toluene hampered the production activities in the region. In the last month, the prices dropped owing to a decline in production costs as TTF natural gas prices slid down and the demand from the downstream solvents industry remained suppressed in the region. Thus, at the end of the first quarter, the prices of Toluene FOB Hamburg settled at USD 1146 per tonne.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the US market, Toluene prices have demonstrated mixed market sentiments in Q4. The prices first improved and then fell in the second half of the fourth quarter. The cost support from upstream raw materials was limited, and the pricing dynamics of Toluene progressed in a downtrend. The freight rate across the US gulf coast and Asian markets was also relatively low, prompting downward pressure on the price realizations of Toluene in the US market. Furthermore, the demand dynamics of toluene demand were adversely affected by the low market transactions from the downstream solvent industries. As a result, the traders lowered their offers to maintain a balance between supply and demand. Therefore, Toluene FOB Texas prices were concluded at USD 1207 per ton at the end of the fourth quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Toluene prices have remained on the lower end in the Chinese domestic market. The cost support from upstream Crude oil was weak. In addition, the offtakes from the downstream paints and coatings industries remained under pressure as procurement from the international market was sluggish. In addition, the price realizations of coal also weakened, pressuring the manufacturing costs of Toluene. In mid-Q4, the fresh COVID cases impacted manufacturing across the nation. Logistics have been disrupted by Beijing's "zero-covid" policy, and ocean shipment volumes have decreased, imposing a downside risk to the price realization of Toluene. Consequently, Toluene Ex Shanghai prices were assessed at USD 928 per ton in December.
Europe
Prices for Toluene in the German market decreased throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. Manufacturers cut their prices in Q4 because of the continued lack of improvement in demand from downstream solvent industries. The Toluene market was negatively impacted by the low market transactions. With rising inventory levels, pressure has grown on the supply side. Furthermore, the market value of upstream crude oil has fallen, putting pressure on the Toluene market. The end-use industries' purchasing power has been depleted by record-high inflation. Additionally, the purchase from the downstream Benzene market was insufficient and unable to sustain the upward trends in Toluene prices. Thus, Toluene FOB Hamburg prices were settled at USD 1016 per ton at Q4-end.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Toluene prices fluctuated in the North American region throughout quarter III of 2022 on the back of a decline in orders from the downstream processors. Initially, the product prices plunged due to the reduction in demand from downstream industries, which increased the inventory levels. However, from the mid-quarter, the prices stabilized, and product prices rose slightly on the back of increased orders from downstream products from the European importers. On the contrary, the production costs decreased due to a decrease in upstream Natural gas prices due to increased availability and stability in European LNG demand. Consequently, after witnessing a plunge of 2.5% in the previous quarter’s prices, Toluene prices in the USA settled at USD 1166/MT at the end of Q3.
Asia
Toluene price trend fluctuated in Asia during Q3 of 2022. During the first two months, Toluene prices decreased consistently in the region due to declined orders from domestic downstream industries. Major producers in China cut down operational rates on Government’s instructions due to heat waves in summer. At the same time, depreciation in currency values and economic slowdown further affected domestic manufacturing activities. While in the final month of the quarter, the price trend revived in some Asian countries like India and was seen stable in Thailand and South Korea, the price movement persisted in China. At the end of Q3, Toluene prices in China and India settled at USD 1099/MT and USD 1166/MT, respectively.
Europe
A shifting price trend of Toluene was seen in the European region during Q3 of 2022. Initially, the product prices decreased negligibly during the first month of the quarter due to high upstream costs amid the increase in inflation rates and a decrease in demand from TDI producers. However, in the second month, the price trend shifted in Europe. Toluene prices nosedived on the back of declined demand by the downstream industries as key downstream manufacturing facilities were down due to the rationing of input supplies. Because of this, the product inventory levels rose, and prices were negatively affected. After witnessing a decrease of 2.7% against the Q2 values, Toluene discussions in Germany settled at USD 1138/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Toluene prices have been rising throughout the second quarter of 2022, supported by strong export demand and upstream crude oil prices on the global market. The upstream crude oil supply scarcity has also impacted the price increase for Toluene. All the crude derivative commodities' prices are affected by variables such as robust demand, lower-than-anticipated supplies, and continuing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Toluene's demand in the downstream paint and rubber industries continued to have a strong need for Toluene during this quarter.
Asia-Pacific
The Asia Pacific region has had conflicting market attitudes for Toluene during the second quarter of 2022. Due to the plentiful supply and the weak demand from the construction and downstream cosmetics industries, toluene prices fell in China in April. In addition, the cost of raw materials, particularly benzene and xylene, has been significantly impacted by the decline in crude value, which has lowered the price of Toluene across the regional market. Besides, the ongoing Covid shutdown in some cities of China has impacted the market sentiments of Toluene. However, Toluene prices have increased since the middle of the quarter as downstream output has recovered after the May Day holidays. The market for Toluene was offended by the rise in toluene demand to produce downstream derivative benzene. The pricing of Toluene has also benefited from significant purchasing and selling activity across the regional market. A significant factor in the increase in toluene prices is undoubtedly the skyrocketing upstream crude prices. The market for Toluene also saw an uptick because of the increase in transportation freight costs brought on by the increase in fuel prices.
Europe
In the European market, Toluene prices showed an upward trend in the second quarter of 2022, supported by an increase in regional market demand. Also, the high demand for ink, paints, and adhesives laid the foundation for the price hike. In addition, the upstream crude supply shortage also supported the price increase. Additionally, the price of Toluene has increased due to the inflation in energy prices brought on by geopolitical unrest and the necessity of sanctions on Russia's oil embargo. The toluene market has increased further due to strong domestic demand and increased output. Moreover, the rising demand for Toluene in producing its derivative toluene diisocyanate has also contributed to an increase in toluene prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
During the first quarter of 2022, Toluene prices skyrocketed owing to the rising demand from the downstream paints, adhesives, glues, and so on. In addition, the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict resulted in the upsurge of upstream Crude prices and feedstock Benzene, impacting the Toluene market. Moreover, the reroute in shipments after the Russian invasion delayed the supplies inflicting the Toluene price trend. Besides, soaring fuel prices and freight charges also affected the Toluene market. Furthermore, the energy crisis has fuelled the prices after US sanctions on Russian gas. Henceforth, the cost of Toluene in the USA settled at USD 1225 per MT in March 2022.
Asia Pacific
Toluene prices witnessed an upward trajectory in the first quarter of 2022. As the upstream crude price witnessed an upsurge due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict resulting in the price hike in the Toluene market. Moreover, the disruption of trade and port congestion in China caused by the resurgence of COVID impacted the Toluene price trend in the regional market. Also, the hike in demand for the downstream paint, ink, and adhesives has severely affected the price of Toluene to grow high. In addition, the rising freight charges have boosted the Toluene market in the region. Thus, the CFR prices of Toluene in India settled at USD 815 per MT by the quarter ending March 2022.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2022, Toluene prices showcased an upward movement as a result of an upsurge in demand from the regional market. The high demand for ink, paints, and adhesives laid the foundation for the price hike. In addition, the geopolitical tension inflicted the upstream crude, which severely affected the petroleum feedstocks impacting rail and road transportation with congestion across black sea. Furthermore, the continuation of Europe's energy crisis following the suspension of Russian gas after their invasion of Ukraine led to a significant price increase. Hence, the FOB prices of Toluene in Germany were assessed at USD 1150 per MT in March 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Toluene prices witnessed a downward trajectory backed by the ample supply of the product as the major producers such as Dow and ExxonMobil had resumed their Toluene production in September end. The demand outlook for Toluene and its derivatives remained stable through the quarter. Moreover, reasonable upstream Benzene prices due to dip in the Crude oil values as well as narrow demand also supported the pricing trend of Toluene in the region. Additionally, in December, buyers did not seem interested in stocking piles ahead of year end that further kept the prices low. Hence, FOB Texas average Toluene prices settled at USD 853/MT in December. However, in the upcoming month Toluene market sentiments may improve with the rise in its values.
Asia
In Asia, Toluene market sentiments varies from country to country during the fourth quarter of 2021. In China, Toluene prices witnessed fluctuations in this quarter backed by the volatility in upstream Benzene values and demand dynamics. Thus, Toluene FOB Shanghai prices rose to USD 1022/MT from USD 993/MT from October to November while in December prices tumbled down to USD 915/MT because of lull market activities and dull demand fundamentals. Moreover, In South Korea, Toluene fundamentals have continued to be modest in line with upstream crude oil values, influencing the pricing trend of Toluene in China. In Indian market, Toluene prices showcased a downward trend in Q4 on the back of ample supplies and ease in the feedstock Benzene values. However, the demand outlook was firm in October and November with enough enquiries due to festive season while in December the demand from the downstream manufacturers narrowed down. Thus, Ex Kandla Toluene prices were assessed at USD 855.9/MT in December registering a dip of USD 115.6/MT since October.
Europe
In Q4 2021, Toluene market appeared to be bullish backed by the supply tightness and firm demand from the downstream TDI manufacturers across the region that kept the pricing trend high throughout the quarter. Supply restrictions and lower imports from the Asian countries in effect of surging covid cases also exerted pressure on local traders. Moreover, production cuts as a repercussion of natural gas crisis along with constraint availability on spot basis also supported the inflation in the Toluene prices. Hence, FOB Hamburg Toluene prices were assessed at USD 910/MT in December witnessing a rise of USD 75/MT since October.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
During the third quarter of 2021, the prices of Toluene remained firm in the North American region. During the last week of September, leading companies like Dow and ExxonMobil resumed their production of Toluene which led to the increment in the supply in the latter stages of Q3. Stagnant demand in Q3 2021 was observed however due to unplanned shutdowns prices remained fairly stable. Demand from the downstream market was still recovering hence prices remained rangebound to downwards during the quarter. The overall market prices of Toluene stabilized towards the end of the quarter FOB Texas offers were assessed at USD 990/MT in September.
Asia Pacific
Toluene prices demand reported positive indications in the domestic demand as industries increased their plant operating rates in the third quarter of 2021. Toluene prices in the domestic market witnessed a marginal climb, reaching USD 824 per MT in the week ending 9th July due to the prominent recovery in the buying interest. However, the hike in prices has been lesser than the expected due to the consistent ease in values of upstream crude. A consistent rise in Toluene prices was observed during the month of July, bolstered by a prominent recovery in industrial activities post decline in pandemic cases in India. It was reported that the consumption of petrochemicals in the country escalated after Indian state governments laid off the movement restrictions from their respective states, which eventually led to the increment in the consumption of Toluene in India.
Europe
The overall market of Toluene experienced mixed sentiments in the third quarter of 2021 in Europe. In the month of September, prices fell alongside the crude oil market. The downstream demand remained slow and overall trading was subdued in early September, which affected the prices of Toluene during the quarter. In Germany, the prices of Toluene witnessed a downtrend as the FOB Hamburg prices fell from USD 805/MT to USD 755/MT in the third quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Toluene supplies in the North American region improved considerably compared to the previous quarter with sharp pickup in the production rates as the petrochemical players strategize to make up for the supply gap created by the polar storm Uri. Increased offtakes by the downstream players improved the production rates for Toluene. Demand observed significant growth from the downstream paints and coatings, solvents and several other industries as the region witnessed seasonal hike in building and construction activities in the second quarter. Several spot buyers were observed procuring large orders to replenish the inventories ahead of the upcoming hurricane season in the US. Furthermore, trading sentiments in the Toluene market balanced the supply demand dynamics in the North American region. Hence overall market prices stabilized with FOB Texas offers assessing at USD 845 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
Toluene supply witnessed constraints in the Northeast Asian region due to scheduled turnarounds at the Kumho Line 3 in South Korea and Mitsui Chemicals plant in Japan during the second quarter. In China, the government imposed the consumption taxes on the imported heavy aromatic commodities, as a ripple effect the pricing trend in the China’s domestic market measured a significant spike towards H2 of the quarter. FOB Shanghai Toluene prices settled around USD 740 per tonne in June. Demand fundamentals remained strong across major countries in Asia-Pacific as the downstream paints & coatings sector along with construction sector measured increase in consumption levels.
Europe
Toluene supply was tight to balanced in the European region owing to the delay in resumption of operations at BASF Ludwigshafen plant in Germany. However, better inflow of product volumes from the US enhanced the supply outlook. Demand continued to remain in the uptrend due to rising consumption from downstream paints and coating industries amidst the seasonal hype from the building and construction. Toluene pricing trend observed a marginal uptrend on the back of spike in demand throughout the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
The supplies were tight during Q1 2021 as various plants remained shut for maintenance related work during the first half of the first quarter. During mid-February, freezing weather conditions disrupted the production lines in the US, which resulted in increased spot prices in the domestic market. The demand surged from the downstream sectors such as TDI and gasoline blending. However, hiked prices and supply disruptions aggravated the domestic buyers which turned more flexible towards the Asian supplies. FOB Texas Toluene prices were recorded at USD 910 per MT, showing a spike of 3% on month-on-month basis in March.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
Toluene supplies surged in the north-eastern region, whereas supplies in southeast Asia remained balanced during the fourth quarter of 2021, as the addition of new capacities in China increased the production. However, major producers in the region turned to meeting the demand from the western hemisphere rather than southeast Asian countries for better netbacks in revenue. The demand in the APAC region remained stable to tight throughout the quarter. Constrained availability and resilient demand surged the FOB Korea price of Toluene to around USD 680/ton in March 2021.
Europe
During Q1 2021, Toluene supplies were balanced in the European region, as the consumption declined in the region due to imposition of fresh lockdowns, restricted mobility and restrained economic activity, leading to the downfall in demand. Due to minimal transporting activities consumption from the gasoline blending sector declined in the region. Surging spot prices of Toluene in the US, widened the arbitrage between US and Europe, hence the trading focus shifted towards the APAC suppliers.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
Discussions in US Toluene market remained mixed amid global oversupply concerns from eastern countries in contrast to the forced turnarounds in several Toluene plant in US Gulf Coast due to the series of seasonal hurricanes. Although demand for Toluene witnessed a gradual pick up due to revival in the transportation industry, it was certainly not enough to recover the spreads with its downstream commodities. Reaching the plateau of the pandemic, several producers continued to reduce their operating rates while others relied on the export demand amid a prudent economy recovery.
Asia
Asian Toluene Market witnessed dented consumption against the backdrop of dull buying momentum amidst lackluster downstream demand as the market in various countries failed to regain the lost momentum after the outbreak of Coronavirus. High inventories of Toluene in China pressured local traders to channelize their material to the export market, thereby directing the supply to Southeast Asia. The situation eased with spate of maintenance turnarounds and resumption delays in several Northeast Asian plants in early September as producers undertook a wait and see approach amid fears of further loss in revenues due to volatile crude prices and market uncertainties. Prices of Toluene averaged around USD 637 per MT in the Southeast Asian market in the period between July to September.
Europe
Subdued downstream consumption coupled with muted spot activities dwindled the market fundamentals of Toluene in the European region. Producers already hurt by the squeezed profit margins reduced their operating rates in the second half of third quarter in order to balance the overwhelming supply. In addition, several turnarounds at downstream TDI plant further stalled the demand for the product in the region. The quarterly rise coming from favorable seasonal demand had insignificant impact on the petrochemical market struggling with the repercussions of the lockdown implemented in the previous quarter. Throwing light on the tumbling fundamentals, Northwest Europe’s petrochemical index registered a fall of around 5% for Toluene prices between July to August.
