For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate prices exhibited limited volatility, fluctuating within a tight range amid several influencing factors. The U.S. economy showed resilience, although inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties continued to pose challenges.
Supply trends were shaped by stable manufacturing performance and changing trade dynamics. A minor drop in the PPI for manufacturing industries, from 249.624 in Q2 to 248.383 in Q3, signaled slight production cost savings. The restocking of inventories, following Q1 drawdowns, helped Q2 GDP grow by 3.0%, with 2.7% annual growth expected.
Consumer spending and corporate investments, driven by initiatives like the CHIPS Act, kept demand robust, as inflation dropped below 3.0% in July. However, geopolitical tensions in key regions, along with potential tariffs on imports, raised concerns about supply chains and trade disruptions. The Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts are intended to stimulate household spending and growth, though labor market shifts and trade uncertainties may affect supply dynamics heading into 2025.
Asia
In Q3 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate market in the APAC Region witnessed a decline in prices, influenced by several key factors. The market was characterized by a decrease in demand from various industries, including water treatment and paper manufacturing. Additionally, logistical issues and rising transportation costs impacted the overall pricing environment. In China, which experienced the most significant price changes, the market trends reflected a seasonal fluctuation, with demand slowing down during the quarter. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, as the market reacted to decreased consumption rates and muted inquiries from both domestic and overseas markets. The quarter saw a 2% decrease from the previous quarter, with a notable -1% price difference between the first and second half of Q3. The quarter-ending price for Trisodium Phosphate in China stood at USD 480/MT FOB Qingdao, signaling a consistently decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. The market also faced disruptions, with no major plant shutdowns reported during the quarter.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, Trisodium Phosphate prices in Europe exhibited limited fluctuations due to economic uncertainties linked to the ongoing West Asia conflict and slow growth in Europe and the U.S. Freight markets faced multiple challenges, with carriers like MSC and CMA CGM pushing FAK rates to $6,500 per container because of tight space and added surcharges. Red Sea disruptions and delays at Singapore ports further strained logistics. Air freight rates from Northeast Asia to Europe surged by 40% year-over-year, driven by a surge in e-commerce and semiconductor demand. Despite expanded capacity, supply chain imbalances remained unresolved. Geopolitical tensions and upcoming seasonal demand suggest continued volatility into Q4 2024. Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial sector continued to struggle, with weak production, high energy prices, and falling export demand, affecting the broader eurozone economy. Additionally, outlook for Q4 2024 seems dull too, as the geopolitical situation of the world is still disbalanced and in a threatening situation.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the beginning of Q2 2024, the prices of Trisodium Phosphate showed a decreasing market trend. This development was due to lower downstream inquiries and traders selling stocks at lower prices to increase market transactions. In the second half of Q2 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate market in North America exhibited a notable uptrend in prices, driven by several key factors.
The quarter commenced with a robust supply-demand equilibrium, supported by optimal production rates in domestic plants. However, persistent inflationary pressures and elevated natural gas prices raised production expenses. Consequently, manufacturers augmented their selling prices to maintain margins. Additionally, increased restocking activities anticipated for the upcoming holiday season further propelled Trisodium Phosphate prices. Focusing on the USA, the region experienced the most significant price fluctuations.
The overall trend was marked by upward momentum, primarily influenced by seasonal demands from the textile and paper industries. This surge signifies heightened procurement activities and a positive market outlook. Despite no major plant shutdowns being reported, the market remained dynamic, characterized by a consistent upward trajectory. Overall, the pricing environment for Trisodium Phosphate in Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, underpinned by strong industrial demand, strategic restocking, and inflationary production costs.
APAC
In the first half of the second quarter of 2024, Trisodium Phosphate prices in the APAC region predominantly trended downward, reflecting a negative pricing environment. The primary factors influencing this decline included ample inventories, sufficient supply meeting demand, and subdued production costs due to low coal prices. Persistent economic challenges and stagnant consumer confidence further exacerbated the price drop, despite steady demand from downstream sectors like cleaning and food additives.
However, in June, the prices of Trisodium Phosphate increased in the domestic market due to balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Low inventory levels in the domestic market tightened supply pressure. Additionally, demand dropped due to sluggish consumption. The downstream water treatment industries slowed down purchases amid the monsoon season, and inquiries from the downstream paper and pulp manufacturing sector remained muted. The current market aligns with the off-season, resulting in weak demand. Some paper companies might continue to explore options to alleviate inventory pressure. The decline in end-user demand has not significantly improved, making it challenging to maintain stable or increased paper prices, thereby providing poor support for upstream pulp prices.
China, which experienced the most significant price changes, saw Trisodium Phosphate prices decrease sharply. Concurrently, high inventory levels kept prices in check, while low coal prices translated to reduced production costs. Seasonality also played a vital role, with moderate restocking activities and subdued demand during certain periods contributing to the price decline.
The overall trend showed a 3% decrease from the previous quarter, with a further 1% drop in prices between the first and second halves of Q2 2024. The quarter-ending price for Trisodium Phosphate in China stands at USD 480/MT FOB Qingdao, reflecting a consistent downward trend. This price trajectory indicates a stability in pricing environment, driven by economic constraints, ample supply, and reduced production costs, despite stable demand from key industries. Notably, there were no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns during this period, suggesting that production capacity remained steady.
Europe
In the first month of Q2 2024, the prices of Trisodium Phosphate showed declining market trends. This development was driven by lower prices of imports from the international market, especially from China. Furthermore, the demand from the downstream industry, such as cleaning and detergents, was on the lower side.
In the second half of Q2 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate market in Europe experienced a notable upward pricing trend driven by several key factors. The quarter was marked by increased restocking activities ahead of the European holiday season, which heightened demand and consequently exerted upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, higher production costs, notably due to rising natural gas prices, contributed to the overall increase. The European Central Bank's decision to lower interest rates stimulated economic activity, further bolstering demand from downstream industries such as textiles, laundry, and detergents. Supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea exacerbated the situation, leading to tightened vessel capacity and elevated freight rates. These logistical challenges, coupled with increased war risk insurance premiums, added to the cost pressures.
Germany observed significant price changes for Trisodium Phosphate, showcasing the most pronounced trends within the region. The country's robust demand from the laundry and home care sectors, underpinned by strong organic sales growth reported by major firms like Henkel, amplified the price escalation. The correlation between rising demand and constrained supply due to geopolitical tensions in key shipping routes further amplified pricing dynamics. Seasonal restocking activities in the first half of the quarter led to a sharp increase in prices, whereas the second half witnessed a slight moderation. Despite these fluctuations, the overall sentiment remained positive, reflecting an environment where demand substantially outstripped supply. This pricing trajectory signifies a robust quarter for Trisodium Phosphate in Germany, driven by both local and international market forces.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, Trisodium Phosphate prices in the US market remained firm, influenced by logistical disruptions stemming from unrest in the Red Sea region and a modest start in procurement activity in downstream markets. Limited supplies and increased operational costs also contributed to the stabilization of Trisodium Phosphate prices. Additionally, heightened demand from the cleaning and detergent sector, coupled with higher upstream prices, further propelled Trisodium Phosphate prices upwards. Moreover, a slight increase in demand for Feedstock Soda Ash was noted due to limited stock availability in the US market.
During the initial two months of 2024, the US Trisodium Phosphate market witnessed significant price increases attributed to rising production expenses and limited availability of pre-procured inventory. While additional tanks in nearby areas such as Philadelphia helped mitigate potential supply disruptions via shipments to Baltimore, prolonged logistical challenges could still affect Feedstock Soda Ash pricing.
Distributors and purchasers in the northeastern US expressed concerns about low inventory levels in tanks during the first quarter, despite some slight improvements in recent weeks. Traders adjusted their pricing strategies based on warehouse stock availability, while adverse weather conditions intermittently disrupted terminal operations, prompting cautious contingency planning. Despite the modest downstream demand, traders raised product prices to preserve their margins.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate market in the APAC region experienced significant price fluctuations. Overall, the pricing environment can be described as negative, with prices showing a downward trend.
Various factors influenced market prices during this quarter. One of the key factors was the increase in the cost of the raw material, Sodium Carbonate, which led to higher production expenses. Additionally, there was a decline in demand from downstream sectors, resulting in excess inventory levels and prompting sellers to offer discounts. These factors contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
China witnessed the maximum price changes in the Trisodium Phosphate market. Prices in China were influenced by factors such as the increase in the cost of feedstock Sodium Carbonate and the decline in demand from the international market. Despite these challenges, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) value remained stable, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In terms of seasonality, Q1 2024 saw a decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a percentage change of 88%. However, there was a slight increase in prices compared to the previous quarter in 2024.
To conclude, the latest quarter-ending price for Trisodium Phosphate in China was USD 480/MT FOB Qingdao. Overall, the pricing environment for Trisodium Phosphate in the APAC region in Q1 2024 can be characterized as negative, with prices experiencing a downward trend due to factors such as increased production costs and declining demand.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Trisodium Phosphate market in Germany grappled with logistical disruptions stemming from unrest in the Red Sea and reduced activity downstream. German Trisodium Phosphate producers scaled back production rates due to disrupted supply chains since February 2024. Concerns arose as Easter holidays approached in March 2024, particularly regarding closures of German ports.
Trisodium Phosphate export value surged in January 2024, indicating increased production activities. Furthermore, the lingering impact of a sluggish global and Eurozone economy, coupled with consistently high interest rates, has fostered caution among downstream industries consumer, contributing to subdued end-use demand for Trisodium Phosphate in the European market during this period.
Amidst supply disruptions and reduced downstream production rates, market participants in the Soda Ash industry adopted cautious supply management strategies and offered discounts to prevent stockpiling. In the preceding two months of 2024, the European Trisodium Phosphate market experienced significant growth fuelled by lower upstream prices and abundant product availability. Supply concerns emerged in March 2024, especially regarding German ports facing closures during Easter holidays.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In Q4 2023, the North American Trisodium Phosphate (TSP) market demonstrated a dynamic pricing landscape. Initially stable compared to Q3, prices were supported by consistent demand and steady feedstock costs. However, mid-quarter fluctuations arose from varying demand in sectors like pharmaceutical intermediates and cellulose acetate, affected by shifting consumer preferences and decreased construction activity. Short-term supply disruptions and evolving trade dynamics, particularly from Asia, also contributed to volatility.
Towards the quarter's end, prices gradually declined due to easing phosphoric acid costs, increased inventory levels, and competitive pressures among producers. Regional variations were observed, with stable to slightly higher prices on the Gulf Coast, more volatility in the Northeast and Midwest, and slightly lower prices on the West Coast.
These fluctuations had diverse impacts, benefiting downstream industries, particularly those facing cost pressures. TSP producers experienced mixed profitability, influenced by production costs, hedging strategies, and regional performance.
APAC
Trisodium Phosphate pricing in the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023 was influenced by several key factors. Firstly, there was a moderate supply of Trisodium Phosphate in the market, as plants maintained steady operating capacity. However, the prices of feedstock sodium carbonate remained high, contributing to an overall bullish market situation.
Demand for Trisodium Phosphate was low to moderate, with robust domestic demand from industries such as cleaning, food additives, and stain removers. However, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated a slight decline in manufacturing sector expansion. Despite this, the market saw a decrease in product inventories as a result of constant demand from the downstream industry. No major plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter.
In China, the prices of Trisodium Phosphate experienced a bullish trend. This was primarily due to high-cost support from sodium carbonate and low inventory levels in the market. However, the prices are expected to decline in the upcoming weeks due to increased destocking activity and lower demand from the international market. The latest price of Trisodium Phosphate FOB Qingdao in China for the fourth quarter of 2023 is USD 495/MT.
Europe
The Q4 2023 Trisodium Phosphate (TSP) market in Europe displayed a dynamic price scenario. Initially, prices surged due to robust regional demand and rising phosphoric acid feedstock costs, carrying over from Q3. However, mid-quarter, the market experienced divergent trends. TSP Prices declined due to weakened demand from sectors like food processing and detergents. TSP Prices remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations tied to local demand and trade flows.
Despite the initial increase, TSP prices ended the quarter mostly flat or slightly lower compared to Q3 continent-wide. Key drivers included phosphoric acid feedstock costs, which varied between Western and Eastern Europe, impacting production expenses. Demand dynamics differed across regions, with Western & Central Europe facing weak demand due to economic slowdown and product substitution, while Eastern Europe exhibited more stability influenced by local economic conditions.
Ample existing inventory in Western Europe, trade patterns (mainly imports from China), and global phosphoric acid cost fluctuations played roles in shaping the market. Lower TSP prices in certain regions benefited downstream industries such as food processors and detergent manufacturers facing cost pressures. For TSP producers, mixed price movements likely influenced profitability based on individual production costs and hedging strategies.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the North American region, Trisodium Phosphate prices have maintained stability in the first half of Q3, and then the prices have increased as of the second half of Q3. Rise in prices there has been an upward trajectory in prices, primarily driven by the escalation in Feedstock Sodium carbonate prices. Additionally, there is sustained and robust demand from downstream industries such as food additives. However, a noteworthy development is the decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US market, dropping from 49 in July to 47.90 in August and further to 49.80 in September 2023. This decrease signals a contraction within the manufacturing sector, introducing an additional layer of complexity to the overall market dynamics. Looking ahead to the upcoming quarter, there is an expectation of price increases against the backdrop of rising Feedstock Sodium carbonate prices. Simultaneously, the demand from the downstream industry is anticipated to remain resilient. Additionally, demand from the international market is expected to remain firm, contributing to the overall market stability.
Asia-Pacific
In the Chinese market, the prices of Trisodium Phosphate showed a declining trend in the first half of the third quarter, followed by an upward trend in the second half. This dip in demand can be attributed to the broader economic context in China, where deflation emerged as a concern. The inflation rate stood at a mere 0.1% as of August, reflecting a sluggish economic recovery and underlying demand challenges within the Chinese market. Notably, inquiries from downstream sectors, such as food additives and lubricants, were on the lower side during this period. However, there was a glimmer of optimism as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to 51 in August from 49.2 in July, signaling expansion in the manufacturing sector. The increase in the latter half of the quarter can be explained by a modest improvement in demand conditions amid the upward trend in feedstock sodium hydroxide prices. Nevertheless, the official NBS manufacturing PMI saw a faint decline to 50.60 in September from 51 in June, remaining below the 50-point benchmark.
Europe
In the European market, Trisodium Phosphate prices have shown an upward trend in the current quarter, primarily driven by the increasing prices of feedstock Sodium Carbonate. However, demand from downstream industries, particularly in food additives, has remained stable. In August 2023, the Eurozone's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) saw a slight uptick to 43.5 from the previous month's 42.7, indicating consecutive months of contraction in the third quarter. On the production front, natural gas prices experienced a continuous increase throughout the quarter, contributing to additional costs. Moreover, the prices of imports from the Asian market rose, leading to higher inventory costs in the European market. In the upcoming month, bullish trends in Trisodium Phosphate prices are expected, driven by the rising prices of imports and the anticipation of firm demand from downstream industries, creating positive market sentiments. Additionally, the demand for Natural Gas is expected to increase, leading to higher LNG prices and consequently higher production costs.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Trisodium Phosphate prices have remained subdued in the US market throughout the second quarter of 2023 amid weak feedstock prices and moderate demand. The global economic headwinds such as mounting inflationary pressure, tightened monetary policies along with rising interest rates by the central bank to combat inflation have impacted the consumer’s pocket. The oversupplies of feedstock Phosphoric acid have limited the positive development of Trisodium Phosphate in the domestic market. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream detergent, and water treatment industry have remained steady from both the domestic and overseas markets. The market transactions were mainly based on a need-on-demand basis. In addition, the operating rates in the manufacturing firms remained stable in the domestic market, while the level of inventories remained sufficient to meet overall downstream demand which further weighed down the prices of Trisodium Phosphate in the domestic market. Moreover, the US manufacturing purchasing manager’s index dropped from 46.9 in May to 46.0 in June, reflecting a contraction in industrial and manufacturing activities.
Asia-Pacific
Trisodium Phosphate prices have shown mixed trends in Asia's biggest economy, China during the second quarter of 2023. During early Q2, Trisodium Phosphate prices increased in the domestic market due to improved buying trends among the end-users. Although, feedstock Phosphoric acid has decreased it had limited bearing over the prices of Trisodium Phosphate. The inquiries from the downstream detergents and water treatment industry have increased from both domestic and international markets which promoted the manufacturers to raise their quotation. As per the sources, in April, China's export rate increased by approximately 8.5% in the US dollar term, signifying an increase in new orders from the international market, thus boosting the market sentiments of Trisodium Phosphate in the domestic market. However, towards the end of Q2, the Trisodium Phosphate prices have gained a downward trend in the domestic market due to low-cost pressure from feedstock Phosphoric acid. The demand from the downstream industry has remained steady. Furthermore, in the middle of June, the Dragon Boat Festival further halted trade activities in the Chinese market. In addition, some manufacturing firms also have a maintenance plan. Furthermore, the consumer price index remained unchanged in June. However, despite stagnation in inflation, policymakers in China were cautious about the possibility of prolonged slower growth because manufacturing activity has significantly narrowed in the Q2 of 2023.
Europe
Trisodium Phosphate prices have shown a bearish trend in the German market during the second quarter of 2023 amid steady demand and sufficient inventories. The firm inflationary pressure and rising interest rates have impacted the purchasing power of consumers. The inquiries from the downstream detergents as well as from wastewater treatment have remained moderate in the domestic market. The downstream procurements were mainly based on small orders. On the supply front, the ample material availability in the German ports via the steady inflows of imports from Asia and the US market has led to supply dominant market. In addition, freight charges from East Asia/China to Europe have declined by approximately 9% amid dropped in global demand, which weighed down the prices of Trisodium Phosphate in the domestic market. In addition, the German manufacturing purchasing manager’s index dropped from 43.2 in May to 41 in June, indicating a contraction in new orders. Overall, there were no supply chain bottlenecks or port congestion were observed in the given time frame.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Trisodium phosphate prices have continued to drop in the USA market during the first quarter of 2023 amid slow purchasing sentiment and strong supplies. Feedstock Phosphoric acid has declined, which resulted in the low production cost of Trisodium Phosphate. In addition, demand from the food additives and lubricant industries has been weak, and there were limited inquiries for new orders from end-users, resulting in a bearish pricing trend in the domestic market. In addition, the manufacturing activity in the US market has also been underperforming, contributing to the sluggishness in the market. Operating rates have remained stable, leading to high inventory levels in the USA. Additionally, market participants reported that the recent banking crisis in the USA had had a negative impact on the market growth of various commodities, including Trisodium Phosphate.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Trisodium Phosphate have witnessed an upward trend in China market during the first quarter of 2023 due to improved buying sentiments in the market. The increase in procurement reported from the downstream food additives and lubricant industries has impacted the price value chain of Trisodium Phosphate in the Chinese domestic market. Thus, as a result of strong downstream demand, the manufacturers were compelled to revise their offers to gain some profit margins. In addition, operating rates were improved in the domestic market due to increased consumption from the downstream industries. Although, feedstock Phosphoric acid showed a narrow fluctuation throughout the quarter. Furthermore, China's PMI increased from 49.2 to 51.6 in February, signifying an expansion in both manufacturing and industrial activity.
Europe
Trisodium phosphate prices have dropped in the European market during the first quarter of 2023 owing to gloomy buying sentiments along with firm supplies in the region. In addition, domestic production remained under check while the Trisodium phosphate imports from Asia improved on European shores as the freight charges declined drastically. On the other hand, due to high-interest rates and inflation, the demand from the downstream food additives and lubricants industries has remained weak in the region. There were no new orders from end-use industries, so the product ended up in stock. Furthermore, the European region has witnessed a drop in PMI for March 2023 as Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined to 44.7, measuring a dip of 3.5% on a monthly basis and remaining in contraction.
