For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The North American Vitamin B12 market displayed an incremented price trajectory during the second quarter of 2023. The price negotiations for CFR Los Angeles escalated from $1830500 per MT to $1870900 per MT from April '23 to June '23, demonstrating a significant incline of 2.2% over the course of the quarter. As the inflation rate eased somewhat at the end of Q1 2023, the demand for Vitamin B12 surged considerably after that across the nation, especially at the beginning of May, resulting in a soaring incline in the values. However, despite falling energy prices, there is still significant underlying inflation, well above the Federal Reserve's target, according to industry experts. Despite the mixed sentiment in vitamin prices, the country's nutraceuticals market has shown market patterns. Compared to a loss of 1.9% over the previous 12 months, the USDX has lost 2.5% for the year as of May 12, 2023. As a result, the US dollar became strong and captured demand, giving buyers and wholesalers the opportunity to profit from both the potential and volatility of the nation's nutraceuticals market. Strikes have impacted the Port of Los Angeles in the second half of Q2 2023 as contract negotiations between employers and workers stalled, which has the potential to hamper trade in the near future further.
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific's Vitamin B12 market demonstrated optimistic sentiments in the second quarter of 2023. Having witnessed the fall, the price negotiations for FOB Shanghai began to escalate, rising from $1446350 per metric tonne to $1502340 per metric tonne between April and June of 2023. This price escalation has been in place since the middle of the second quarter of 2023, as demand for vitamin B12 from the end-users pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors has increased both domestically and internationally. As a result of the enhanced demand from both regional and international buyers, China's vitamin B12 producers were encouraged to sell the product at higher margins. In the second half of the quarter, China's nutraceutical market has seen a resurgence as businesses have expanded, not only from a domestic perspective but also from an international one. Given the sudden increase in demand and inquiries in the last few weeks, there was a shortage of supply from local suppliers, which was the other factor driving up prices. China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace, stats showed, as pressure mounts on the authorities to unleash more stimulus to support the nation's economy. Analysts have begun to downgrade their forecasts for China's economy for the rest of the year after May industrial production and retail sales data missed expectations, a sign that the post-pandemic recovery seen in the first quarter is losing steam.
Europe
The second quarter of 2023 for the German Vitamin B12 market was not as optimistic as previously predicted, as price discussions for CFR Hamburg fell slightly from $1715500 per tonne to $1705500 per tonne. Since the start of the energy crisis, gas prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest levels in April, increasing optimism for a stronger economic recovery, which in turn has led to improved trade from Asia. However, due to more than sufficient stocks of vitamin B12 at domestic processors amid low demand, price negotiations eased somewhat in the second half of Q2 2023. Given the slight improvement in European economic conditions, the European Union (EU) has made a decision to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports by boosting the nation's manufacturing industry. In order to avoid potential future shortages, they collected supplies in warehouses, prompting them to cut their price margins to reduce their inventories later. Inflation in Germany rose again in June by more than 6%, but its impact on the country's nutraceuticals industry is yet to be seen. According to several industry experts, weaker-than-hoped-for economic performance in China since the reopening of the country from strict COVID-19 restrictions, a looming US recession, and continued monetary tightening appear to be weighing on German business sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The pricing trend for Vitamin B12 displayed mixed sentiments at the beginning of the first quarter of 2023, with prices estimated in January 2023 at $2073350/MT and March 2023 at $2005780/MT CFR California, respectively. Following the previous quarter's market volatility, market participants had anticipated that the choppy waters would continue to hang over the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals market during the first quarter of 2023. The market dynamics were kept in check by sustained end-user demand and low to moderate inquiries from downstream suppliers. The first half of the quarter was positively influenced by the lifting of the zero-Covid Ban in China in the first week of January as the supply chain and trade continued to strengthen, resulting in a decline in freight costs. Businesses in the US increased employment in January, and wages rose as a result of a sustained severe labor shortage. Because of a downturn in local consumer demand and record high warehouse stockpiles in the second half of the quarter, domestic merchants reduced manufacturing orders by as much as 40%.
Asia Pacific
In Asia Pacific, the first quarter of 2023 proved to be advantageous for China as the country's decision to abolish stringent COVID-19 restrictions in the first week of January gave the trillion-dollar economy, which had suffered greatly over the previous four years, new vigor. In the domestic Chinese market, however, the price pattern during the first quarter of 2023 was downward, with FOB Shanghai prices falling from $1725575/MT in January to $1611000/MT in March. Following a week-long Lunar Holiday, the price of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals experienced a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks in January. Technically speaking, the markets returned from vacation on a strong note with increased local and international orders and shipments. After the markets recovered from the covid-induced lull and a week-long celebration, a sharp downturn in manufacturing was seen in China during the second half of 2022. The declining end-user demand from both local and foreign markets is mostly to blame for China's fall.
Europe
During the Q1 of 2023, prices for Vitamin B12 were estimated at $1799960 per MT in January 2023 and $1795600 per MT in March 2023, respectively. With an increase in orders and shipments from both local and foreign markets, the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in Europe started the first quarter on a positive note. The local market's participants detected positive arbitrage in the majority of the quarter because the forecast for supply and demand looked positive. As inflation pressures reduced during a protracted period of the Russia-Ukraine war and China's surprise covid re-opening, the European market has shown optimistic indicators together with the improvement in end-user demand from both producers and suppliers, paving the way for a swift recovery in activity. The cost of shipping containers between Asia and Europe has also drastically decreased in the second half of the quarter to pre-pandemic levels or below, illustrating strong demand and supply dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, prices for Vitamin B12 continued to decline as a result of the long-drawn-out turmoil in the US domestic market, with CFR Los Angeles prices falling from $2230500/MT to $2173100/MT from October to December. The first week of October saw an interruption in imports from China due to the Golden Week holidays, so many domestic shops had to increase their price quotations to keep up with the persistent demand. Through most of the quarter, the tiebreakers—which included China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, growing US inflation, and severe weather—continued to endanger weak supply chains. In the second half of 2022, the U.S. supply chain progressively improved as the economy began to recover and the port of Los Angeles on the west coast dramatically reduced ship backlogs. Prices started to drop in November along all US supply chains, easing inflationary pressures. The US supply chains became more adaptable because of weaker shipping demand brought on by slower consumer spending and a decline in manufacturing activity in December.
Asia Pacific
During Q4 of 2022, the domestic Vitamin B12 market in China displayed indications of decline as FOB Shanghai discussions fell from $1765500/MT to $1711700/MT from October to December. China's manufacturing sector contracted at a low pace during October, along with the lowest export orders, as a result of the shutdown of industrial facilities over the Golden Week during the first week of October. Chinese traders returning from the Golden Week holiday also had to deal with a range of contradictory signals, which reduced the market's chances of catching up to the small gain recorded in some industries during the first half of Q4. In China, the Dual Control on Energy Consumption raised costs in the second half of Q4 2022 for a number of products, including Vitamin B12. With a sufficient number of inventories on hand, domestic producers and suppliers were able to satisfy the entire domestic demand during the quarter. Covid-19 cases began to arise in China's major manufacturing hubs when the government decided to relax its zero-covid laws in reaction to widespread protest and general turmoil in the nation, which once again put the nation in troubled waters.
Europe
The European vitamin B12 market exhibited a steady trend in the fourth quarter of 2022, with CFR Hamburg values assembling at $1785030/MT in December. In October, despite rising energy prices and supply-chain delays, industrial production in Germany barely increased. However, the problems with COVID-19 and the situation in Russia and Ukraine all continued to have a negative impact on output. Demand-wise, offtakes remained favorable in the end-user industries, but the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors were still suffering from the growing cost of raw materials and energy. The second half of Q4 2022 saw stronger trade flows in Germany and the greater eurozone as a result of some breathing room, but this did not indicate that market fundamentals have balanced.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The American market for Vitamin B12 began the third quarter of 2022 on a positive note, with prices assembled at $2320500 per MT in July. However, these figures ultimately dropped in September and were settled at $2150500 per MT. The recurrent lockdowns in China, from which the majority of nutraceutical items are imported, forced manufacturers of Vitamin B12 to cut their prices. As a result, downstream demand in the US actually decreased during the second half of the quarter. In the final week of July, a large number of Chinese industrial facilities were shut down for maintenance, which significantly decreased imports into the US. This had a major impact on the downward pricing trend and the dropping demand in the closing weeks of the third quarter.
Asia Pacific
The price trend for Vitamin B12 in the Asia Pacific market demonstrated a downward trajectory in the third quarter of 2022. Numerous factors, such as low raw material costs, subdued consumer spending, and weak end-user industry demand, have contributed to this price trend. During the first half, big suppliers only made orders for immediate use, and in July, FOB Shanghai prices came to $2235450 per MT. This was caused by both the subpar offtakes and the weak downstream demand. However, after the markets resumed operations in the final week of July following the shutdown, some factories that make vitamins underwent maintenance, which reduced the amount of Vitamin B12 available for domestic and international suppliers. Later, the local market's downstream pharma and Nutra demand declined, with values settling at $2065450 per MT in September.
Europe
In Germany, the third quarter of 2022 saw a decline in the price of Vitamin B12, with CFR Hamburg values settled at $1921090/MT in July and then falling even further to $1756790/MT in September. As transportation bottlenecks persisted, Germany's logistical issues exacerbated the country's economic downturn this quarter. The situation in Europe got worse as a result of the ongoing lockdowns in Chinese ports and the unrest in Russia and Ukraine. Due to the sluggish demand from end users of the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in the second half of the third quarter, domestic merchants were forced to lower their quotations.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The market trend for vitamin B12 in North America showed signs of stagnation in the second quarter of 2022. The COVID shutdown in China's commercial centers significantly slowed imports and worsened an already-existing supply crunch. Domestic retailers and buyers were concerned about high raw material prices throughout the quarter due to rising inflation in the US, the problematic political situation between Russia and Ukraine, and the extremely unpredictable nature of oil prices. The rapid shift in oil prices in May led to a gradual rise in import, consumer, and production spending. Despite the Asian blockades, ocean cargo from China seemed to be moving through the country's major ports without any problems in June. But during the quarter, demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained strong.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the price trend for vitamin B12 slowed considerably during the second quarter of 2022. After its factories and ports opened, China's domestic market saw a dramatic increase in vitamin B2 production during the first part of the quarter. China's government put large production facilities on lockdown after a surge in COVID-19 cases during the latter week of April, which had a variety of impacts on the country's nutraceutical markets. Demand for offtakes from the end-user industries remained steady during the quarter. The country's Zero-COVID policy caused several cargo ships to become stuck at ports, thus hindering the shipment of the goods to other markets. In order to get rid of stockpiles before they degraded due to the high COVID customs, numerous factories were prepared to offer the goods at a discount toward the end of the quarter.
Europe
Despite price reductions that started at the end of June, the Vitamin B12 market in the European region remained favorable during the second quarter of 2022. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine increased freight costs and hindered goods flow into Europe, further hampering trade from importing countries. Demand from end-user industries, such as the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, remained steady during the entire quarter. However, there was enough stock at the suppliers to satisfy all domestic demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The domestic market in the United States began the first quarter of 2022 on a positive note, with prices rising from USD2249470/mt to USD2310115/mt between January and March. Due to constant volume input, end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses saw solid offtakes throughout the quarter. The delayed shipment of cargoes from Asia following the Festive Holidays due to the Omicron outbreak, as well as backlogs at ports, affected US market sentiments during the mid-quarter. Following the protracted supply disruption, market participants were observed keeping a tight eye on freight charges as a result of higher oil prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Later, the U.S. administration also brought several stimulus measures in light that the federal government could take to control freight transportation in the upcoming weeks.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Vitamin B12 followed an upward trend in Q1 of 2022 on the back of the consistent intake in the downstream industries. Following the Lunar New Year celebrations, markets in China went silent for nearly a week in early late February as producers destocked their inventory to avoid loss aversion ahead of the spring festival breaks. Later in H2, however, the markets recovered with improved sentiments and rising demand. Vitamin B12 was valued at USD2293995 per MT in the month of March. Demand from the downstream nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained stable throughout Q1 2022. The domestic market was also hampered by supply delays and port congestions, which was aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict that erupted in the last week of February. However, the supplies were sufficient to meet overall domestic demand as dealers filled their shelves in preparation for the holiday season.
Europe
In Europe, the domestic market for Vitamin B12 remained vibrant across the region in Q1 2022, owing to consistent offtakes in downstream sectors. During the quarter, rising raw material costs and a lengthy supply chain interruption from Asian markets influenced market sentiment. Due to a scarcity of feedstock sources and high input costs as a result of the peaking energy crisis, domestic manufacturers were obliged to trade Vitamin B12 at high prices. Elevated production costs due to high feed prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the second half of Q1 further supported the Vitamin B12 price trend in Europe. Vitamin E FOB prices in Germany were estimated at USD2305500 per MT in January.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
During the 4th quarter of 2021, the overall market of vitamin B12 demonstrated an improvement across the North American region. The prices of Vitamin B12 escalated from USD 2259050/mt to USD 2260750/mt CFR Los Angeles from October to December. Improved logistics and robust demand for the product have prompted the market participants to keep up their margins in Q4 2021. The market movement of Vitamin B12 remained muted during December in the US domestic market, and the downstream buyers have actively participated in the year-end sale of various nutraceutical products, including Vitamins in China. The price competitiveness amongst the Chinese manufacturers soared significantly in the ending week of December, which further supported the price trend of quarter 4 in the US.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 of 2021, the pricing trend of Vitamin B12 showcased an upward trajectory across the Asia Pacific region, followed by the increased demand from the downstream industries. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices of Vitamin B12 witnessed a hike of 10% and shot up from USD 2181912/MT to USD 2418900/MT FOB Qingdao from October to December. The surging raw material prices in the country have kept the market sentiments buoyed in the offered quotations from the manufacturers. The boost in the production capacity of coal in the month of December has curbed the power rationing, with a significant impact on the production cost of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market. However, in the week ending of December, inquiries from the domestic and overseas market increased as the suppliers were seen destocking their running inventories ahead of the year-end. In India, Vitamin B12 Ex-Mumbai prices increased from USD 2821824/MT to USD 2845896/MT during the fourth quarter. As Vitamin B12 is an imported commodity in India, despite disturbance in production activities in China, the market had ample stocks to cater to the overall need of the consumers.
Europe
The domestic European market observed an upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2021 following the price trend of the USA, which gradually gained numbers during the mid-week of November. The soaring prices of raw materials, peaking energy crises, and high shipping charges compelled to trade the product at increased prices. The additional supply disruptions amid the low availability of containers further supported the pricing trend in the country in q4. In terms of demand, offtakes from the downstream nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained strong throughout the quarter.
