For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter of 2023, the domestic market for Vitamin B9 in North America showed a declining price trend. Negotiated FOB New Jersey prices fell from $51410/mt to $49800/mt between April and June 2023, a decrease of 3.1% over the quarter. Demand for Vitamin B9 from end-users in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries was lower across the US due to cautious stock levels on their shelves. Inflation in the country has declined in line with energy prices. However, despite falling energy prices, there is still significant underlying inflation, well above the Federal Reserve's target, according to industry experts. Experts also believe that the decline in inflation due to easing supply chain pressures is temporary. Despite the mixed sentiment on Vitamin prices, the country's nutraceuticals market has shown mixed market patterns. The ongoing strength of the labor market continues to support economic growth by pushing up wages in the quarter. At the same time, this will continue to fuel inflation, most likely leading the Fed to raise interest rates again in July. However, the state of the US economy is still unknown, and market players in the nutraceutical and food industries continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2023, the Asia-Pacific Vitamin B9 market demonstrated deteriorating price trends. The price negotiations for FOB Shanghai, China, fell from $27,950 per tonne to $26,200 per tonne between April and June 2023. This price decline became quite adamant from the H1 of the second quarter of 2023, as demand for Vitamin B9 from end-users in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors declined domestically and internationally. Due to lower demand and inquiries from both regional and international consumers, Chinese Vitamin B9 producers were compelled to sell the product at lower margins. As per the Stats, China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in June, albeit at a slower pace, as pressure mounts on the authorities to unleash more stimulus to support the economy, which is flattening out after an initially strong post-COVID rebound in the first quarter. The June PMI also reflected a number of imbalances and weaknesses, such as the continued contraction in domestic and external demand, an accelerated slowdown in small business activity, and continued mounting pressures on the private sector.
Europe
The German Vitamin B9 market displayed bearish sentiments during the second quarter of 2023, with price discussions for CFR Hamburg falling slightly from USD 28980 per tonne to USD 28500 per tonne. Gas prices in Europe fell in April to their lowest levels since the start of the energy crisis, increasing optimism for a stronger economic recovery, which undoubtedly improved trade from Asia. However, price negotiations eased during the quarter due to domestic suppliers holding more than sufficient stocks at a time of low demand. With the slight improvement in European economic conditions, the European Union (EU) has plans to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports by boosting the country's manufacturing industry. To avoid potential future shortages, they have been stockpiling goods in warehouses. This has led them to lower their price margins later in the second quarter in order to reduce their inventories. Inflation in Germany rose again in June by more than 6%. However, the impact on its dietary supplement industry remains to come.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The price trend for Vitamin B9 showed signs of stagnation throughout the first quarter of 2023, with prices in New Jersey settling at $50160 per MT in January and $50500 per MT in March, respectively. Following the market instability of the previous quarter, industry experts had projected that the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries would continue to sail in choppy waters during the first quarter of 2023. However, continuous end-user demand and reasonable downstream provider inquiries were able to keep the market's dynamics under control. The first week of January's relaxation of China's zero-covid restriction had a positive impact on the first half of the quarter as the supply chain and trade remained robust, resulting in a decrease in freight costs. Domestic traders cut manufacturing orders by as much as 40% in the second half of Q1 due to a decline in local consumer demand and record-high warehouse stocks.
Asia Pacific
In the first week of January, China's decision to lift the strict COVID-19 restrictions gave the region's trillion-dollar economy—which had suffered greatly over the previous four years—new life. As a result, China's first quarter of 2023 ended up being rather beneficial. However, the domestic Chinese market's FOB Shanghai pricing pattern for the first quarter of 2023 was favorable, with prices rising from $27220/MT in January to $27720/MT in March. In January, after a week-long Lunar Holiday, the price of vitamin B9 in the domestic market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals experienced a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks. Technically speaking, the markets began to perform well once they returned from vacation, with more local and international orders and shipments, but gradually, events took an unforeseen turn.
Europe
Due to an uptick in orders and shipments from both domestic and foreign markets, the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in Europe had a successful first quarter. From $28450 per MT in January 2023 to $28910 per MT in March 2023, respectively, Vitamin B9 prices increased considerably in the first quarter of 2023. For most of the quarter, participants in the local market noticed advantageous arbitrage since the forecast for supply and demand appeared promising. The unexpected reopening of China's covid and the lengthy conflict between Russia and Ukraine lowered inflation pressures, while the European market displayed optimistic indicators. This made room for a swift recovery in activity, which was further aided by an improvement in end-user demand from both producers and suppliers. In the second half of the quarter, the cost of shipping containers between Asia and Europe also dropped significantly to pre-pandemic levels or lower, illuminating a strong demand and supply dynamic.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Due to the protracted unrest in the U.S. market, Vitamin B9 prices continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2022, with FOB New Jersey prices decreasing from $54750/MT to $50290/MT from October to December. Due to the Golden Week vacations, imports from China were halted during the first week of October. As a result, many domestic retailers had to raise their price quotes to meet the ongoing demand. The tiebreakers, which included China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, rising U.S. inflation, and extreme weather, persisted in putting fragile supply chains in peril for the majority of the quarter. The U.S. supply chain gradually recovered in the second half of 2022 as the economy started to rebound, and the port of New Jersey on the east coast significantly decreased ship backlogs following a protracted port backlog. In November, prices began to decline throughout all U.S. supply chains, reducing inflationary pressures. Because of weaker shipping demand spurred on by slower consumer spending and a decline in manufacturing activity in December, the U.S. supply networks became more adaptive.
Asia Pacific
The domestic Vitamin B9 market in China showed signs of contraction during the fourth quarter of 2022, with FOB Shanghai negotiations falling from $31750/MT to $26600/MT from October to December. Due to the closure of industrial facilities during the first week of October for the Golden Week, China's manufacturing sector decreased at a slow rate and saw the lowest export orders. The market's possibilities of catching up to the modest rise achieved in some industries during the first half of Q4 were hindered by the range of contradicting signals that Chinese traders dealing with the return from the Golden Week holiday had to contend with. The Dual Control on Energy Consumption in China increased prices for a number of products in the second half of Q4 2022. Due to significant inventory, domestic manufacturers and suppliers were able to satisfy the whole domestic demand throughout the quarter. The administration changed its zero-covid regulations in response to protests and general turmoil in the nation, which once more placed the nation in a precarious position. At that time, Covid-19 cases began to show up in China's major manufacturing hubs, including Shanghai.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a consistent decline in the European Vitamin B9 market, with CFR Hamburg values plummeting to $28250/MT in December. Despite rising energy costs and bottlenecks in the supply chain, Germany's industrial production increased somewhat in October. The issues with COVID-19, as well as the circumstances in Russia and Ukraine, all continued to have a detrimental effect on output, nevertheless. Demand-wise, offtakes in the end-user industries continued to be favorable, while the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries continued to struggle due to the rising cost of raw materials and energy. Due to some breathing room, trade flows in Germany and the wider eurozone was higher in the second part of Q4 2022, but this did not mean that market fundamentals had become balanced.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The domestic market for Vitamin B9 started the third quarter of 2022 on an upward note, with FOB New Jersey values assembling at $53100 per MT. However, this trend quickly reversed in the second half, and in September, it was settled at $51500 per MT. The companies that produce them were obliged to decrease prices as a result of the intermittent lockdowns in China, where the majority of nutraceutical products, including vitamin B9, are imported. This, in turn, led to a slight decline in demand in the US during the second half. The Biden administration aimed to lower inflation by removing some tariffs on imports from China as the two largest economies in the world battled congested supply chains and rising oil prices. The US imports were significantly reduced because of production facilities in China, many of which were shut down for maintenance during H2 of Q3, closing. This had a significant impact on the downward pricing trend in the domestic pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries during the final weeks of Quarter 3.
Asia Pacific
The price trend for Vitamin B9 in the Asia Pacific market showcased a downward trajectory during the third quarter of 2022. Numerous factors, such as declining raw material costs, subdued consumer spending, and weak end-user sector demand, have contributed to this price trend. Key suppliers were only seen purchasing the items for immediate use during the first half, with FOB Shanghai prices settling at $37950/mt in July. This was due to the sluggish downstream demand and the lower-than-average offtakes. Following the extinguishing of COVID-19 flare-ups in a number of industrial hubs during the first half's finale, industry chains unexpectedly reopened, bringing back profits to industrial enterprises. However, certain vitamin production facilities performed maintenance in the final week of July following the reopening of the markets, which reduced the amount of Vitamin B9 that was widely available. Later, downstream demand in the domestic market became incredibly low, which caused prices to decline and settle at $33550 per MT in September.
Europe
The third quarter of 2022 saw a dip in sentiments on the German Vitamin B9 market, with values for CFR Hamburg, assessed at $38560/MT in July before falling even more in September at $33570/MT. During this quarter, Germany's logistics issues made a slowdown in the economy worse because transportation bottlenecks persisted. The situation in Europe was exacerbated by ongoing lockdowns in Chinese ports and the conflict in Russia and Ukraine. The second half of the third quarter saw domestic merchants lowering their pricing due to the low end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical company demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The North American vitamin B9 market started the second quarter of 2022 with progressive outcomes, which fell in the second half of the quarter. The COVID suspension in China's commercial centers significantly hampered imports and was made worse by the US supply deficit. Because of the US's rising inflation, the problematic political situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the highly unpredictable oil prices, domestic traders and purchasers were concerned about high raw material prices throughout the quarter. Following the dramatic drop in oil prices in May, import, consumer, and production spending increased somewhat. Despite the Asian blockades, it appeared that China's major ports were receiving maritime cargo in June. Nevertheless, offtakes from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained strong on the demand front.
Asia Pacific
The pricing trend for vitamin B9 in the Asia Pacific region during Q2 of 2022 revealed conflicting feelings as prices began to fall in the second half of the quarter due to the covid outbreak in the major provinces of China. Due to the opening of its factories and ports, China's domestic market saw a significant increase in the production of nutraceuticals during the first half of the quarter. The country's nutraceutical markets were affected in several ways by a spike in COVID-19 cases during the last week of April; thus, the Chinese authorities put important production facilities on lockdown. It became more challenging to convey the product to other markets due to the country's absurd Zero tolerance policy, which caused several cargo ships to become stuck at ports. In order to get rid of stocks before they deteriorated due to the high COVID tariffs, several firms were prepared to offer the items at a discount toward the end of the quarter. Throughout the quarter, the end-user industries' need for offtakes remained constant.
Europe
The Vitamin B9 market in the European region remained favorable throughout the second quarter of 2022, despite a little drop in pricing that began at the end of June. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine raised shipping costs and slowed commodities' flow into Europe, making it harder for exporting nations to conduct business. Throughout the entire quarter, demand from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical businesses remained constant. However, the suppliers had enough inventory to meet all domestic demand.
The prices of Vitamin B9 remained strong and increased consistently throughout the first quarter of 2022 in the North American region. During H2, the increased demand for Vitamin B9 by consumers from the downstream pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries coupled with price fluctuation of feed further influenced the price trend of the product. Increased offtakes in the domestic market rose the values of Vitamin B9 prominently in the mid of the quarter. Amid the prolonged supply disruptions and stabilised demand, the price settled at USD57810 per tonne on FOB basis in the USA by March 2022 in North America.
Throughout the first quarter of 2022, the values of vitamin B9 increased in the Asian region. In the Chinese domestic market, Vitamin B9 prices increased prominently during the first half of the quarter due to the closure of major pharmaceutical and nutraceutical manufacturing units caused by China's zero covid policy. In the latter half of Q1, the values remained firm in the Chinese market due to the uncertain supply of raw materials amid the disrupted supply chains. The prices of Vitamin B9 were accessed at USD 52910 per tonne on FOB basis in Qingdao, China, at the end of Q1 2022. However, in the Indian market, the prices remained stagnant during Q1 due to sluggish demand in the downstream pharma sector.
The values of Vitamin B9 remained firm and increased continuously in the European market during first quarter of 2022. During 1st half of Q1, the values increased significantly due to increased production costs in manufacturing Chinese industries. Continuously growing freight rates also influenced the prices of vitamin B9 in the European market. In March, amid the supply chain disruptions caused by the crisis in the East- European, the raw material supply was uncertain to the exporting Asian country, which gave a further boost to the values towards the end of the quarter. The FOB prices of Vitamin B9 in Germany were estimated at USD44850 per MT during the first month of Q1 2022.
