For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The price trend for Vitamin D remained bullish during the first quarter of 2023, with CFR prices in New Jersey ending up at $15800 per MT in January and $16200 per MT in March, respectively. Industry players had predicted that the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries would continue to sail through mixed sentiments during the first quarter of 2023 as a result of the market turbulence in the previous quarter. However, consistent end-user demand and moderate inquiries from downstream providers kept the market dynamics in check. The first half of the quarter benefited from China's easing of its zero-covid ban since the supply chain and trade remained healthy, which led to a decrease in freight costs.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, China's decision to abolish the severe COVID-19 limitations in the first week of January gave the trillion-dollar economy in the Asia Pacific region—China—new vitality after it had suffered significantly over the previous four years. China thus saw a marginally favorable first quarter of 2023. The FOB Shanghai pricing trend in the domestic Chinese market showed minimal change in the first quarter of 2023, with prices stabilizing at $10485 per MT in January and $10740 per MT in March. The price of Vitamin D in the domestic market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals saw a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks in January after a week-long Lunar vacation. The second part of the quarter's rise in market activity in China can be largely ascribed to low inventories and high demand.
Europe
The pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in Europe got off to a good start thanks to an increase in orders and shipments from both domestic and international markets during the first quarter. Prices for Vitamin D increased during the first quarter of 2023, rising from $12150/MT in January to $12340/MT in March. Participants in the local market saw successful arbitrage for the majority of this quarter since the outlook for supply and demand seemed bright. While the European market showed promising signs, the surprise reopening of China's COVID and the protracted crisis between Russia and Ukraine reduced inflation pressures. An improvement in end-user demand from both producers and suppliers allowed for a quick rebound in activity, which was further supported by this.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a further decline in Vitamin D prices due to the prolonged market turbulence in the U.S., with FOB New Jersey prices dropping from $18250/MT to $17220/MT from October to December. Imports from China were restrained during the first week of October due to the Golden Week holidays. In order to keep up with the demand, several domestic merchants had to increase their price bids. For the majority of the quarter, China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, growing U.S. inflation, and extreme weather—continued to put weak supply chains in danger. The second half of 2022 saw a steady improvement in the U.S. supply chain as the economy began to pick up steam and the port of New Jersey on the east coast saw a considerable reduction in ship backlogs after a protracted port backlog. Offtakes in the end-user industries remained consistent throughout the quarter in terms of demand.
Asia Pacific
During the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic Vitamin D market in China began to exhibit indications of contraction, with FOB Shanghai discussions dropping from $12210/MT to $10750/MT from October to December. The first week of October witnessed the shutdown of industrial facilities for the Golden Week, which caused China's manufacturing sector to experience a steady decline and the lowest export orders. The variety of conflicting signals that Chinese traders dealing with the return from the Golden Week holiday had to cope with making it difficult for the market to catch up to the modest gain recorded in some downstream industries during the first half of Q4. In the second half of Q4 2022, prices for a number of products surged due to China's Dual Control on Energy Consumption. Large amounts of inventories allowed domestic producers and suppliers to meet all domestic demand throughout the quarter. In reaction to protest and general unrest in the country, the administration altered its zero-covid restrictions, which once more put the country in a vulnerable position.
Europe
The European Vitamin D market continued to contract in quarter 4 of 2022, with CFR Hamburg values falling to $11990/MT in December from $13178/MT in October. In spite of rising energy prices and supply-chain snags, Germany's industrial production rose a little bit in October. Nevertheless, the problems with COVID-19, as well as the situations in Russia and Ukraine, all continued to have a negative impact on output. Demand-wise, offtakes were favorable in the end-user industries, whereas the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors struggled due to the increased cost of raw materials and energy.
The third quarter of 2022 in the United States saw a decline in Vitamin D prices, with prices assembling at $21780 per MT for FOB New Jersey in July and falling to $17500 per MT in September. Downstream demand in the US declined over the course of the quarter as a result of China's on and off lockdowns. The amount of Chinese industrial sites that were shut down for maintenance during the last week of July greatly reduced imports into the US. In the latter weeks of quarter 3, this had a significant effect on the downward pricing trend and the declining demand.
During the third quarter of 2022, the price trajectory of Vitamin D showcased positive sentiments in the Asia Pacific market, with values rising from $11200/mt to $11620/mt FOB Shanghai from July to September. The fluctuating cost of raw materials, change in currency fluctuation, and stable end-user sector demand are just a few of the variables that have influenced this price trend. Due to both the consistent offtakes and downstream demand during the first half, big suppliers only placed orders for immediate usage. However, some vitamin manufacturers conducted maintenance after the markets resumed operations in the final week of July, which decreased the amount of Vitamin D that was available for domestic as well as international providers.
The Vitamin D market in the European region remained steady throughout the quarter, with prices settling at $11630 per MT in September. Germany's economic decline this quarter was made worse by logistical problems caused by ongoing transportation bottlenecks. The continued port closures in China and the instability in Russia and Ukraine worsened the market situation in Europe. In the second half of the quarter, domestic merchants were compelled to increase their quotations due to the consistent demand from end customers of the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries.
