For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, despite a promising start, Vitamin D prices in the North American market experienced a downturn. Several factors played a role in this shift, leading to an overall decrease in price trends. In the USA, the most substantial price changes occurred, with prices initially increasing until mid-quarter, followed by a decline in March. Vitamin D supplement prices dropped from $16,055/mt in January to $15,750/mt FOB New Jersey by March. Market conditions were influenced by fluctuating demand, product availability, rising freight costs, and decreased imports from Asia. To address these challenges, U.S. authorities worked with industry partners to enhance real-time monitoring of freight movements, especially focusing on nutraceutical shipments from China. The conclusion of 2023 saw disruptions in supply chains and trade due to security issues in the Red Sea, leading to substantial increases in freight charges. These disruptions affected trade routes, causing congestion at U.S. ports and disruptions in the Panama Canal, influencing commodity prices.
During the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, shipments were temporarily suspended. Despite predictions of increased demand for nutraceuticals, including Vitamin D, after the post-holiday market recovery in China, the expected rise in the U.S. did not occur as forecasted. Nevertheless, demand in the U.S. remained stable until the latter part of Q1, bolstered by new stocks from local suppliers. Subsequently, with abundant supply on hand, U.S. suppliers then reduced their price quotes and narrowed their profit margins in March. As prices started to decline in March, reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, alongside decreasing freight charges, played a significant role. This decreased demand coincided with an oversupply of Vitamin D from domestic sources, further complicating market dynamics. Moreover, waning interest from Asian markets, notably China, also contributed to the price depreciation.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin D market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, especially in China, saw modest growth. Prices in China rose slightly from $8,760 per metric ton in January to $8,780 per metric ton FOB-Shanghai by March, marking a 0.23% increase over the period. This positive trend in March represented a significant improvement from the challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023, which included subdued demand, limited new inquiries, and surplus inventory.
Starting from mid-January 2024, demand began to strengthen steadily and maintained momentum through March, indicating a recovery in market sentiment. The first quarter of 2024 showed notable improvement with increasing prices, reflecting a more balanced supply-demand relationship. This upward trend enabled participants in the Chinese market to sustain healthy profit margins throughout the quarter. However, growth decelerated in March, with prices seeing a minor dip. Even during the Lunar Chinese New Year holidays, the domestic Vitamin D market remained robust, bolstered by strong manufacturing activities leading up to the holiday and the availability of fresh inventory. Moreover, international demand for Vitamin D, especially from the pharmaceutical and other sectors, added complexity to the supply-demand dynamics, influencing market trends later in the quarter.
Despite challenges such as declining consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, youth unemployment, reduced exports, and a drop in foreign investment, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience. The domestic Vitamin D market in China saw significant improvements, marked by an uptick in demand and manufacturing output.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin D market in Europe displayed a complex pricing landscape, shaped by various factors. Generally, the market remained fairly steady, with moderate fluctuations and no major price upheavals. Examining the trend and seasonality of Vitamin D prices in Germany in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed no significant deviations compared to the previous year. The relationship between prices and market conditions stayed relatively stable throughout the quarter. As Europe's largest Vitamin D market, Germany witnessed both positive and negative price movements. Prices started at $9,970/mt in January and saw a slight increase to $10,050/mt by March CFR Hamburg. This stability was maintained by consistent demand despite disrupted supplies from Asia.
The European economy faced uncertainties during this time, including rising energy costs and the introduction of interest rate hikes. These factors created a delicate market environment for Vitamin D, complicating efforts to maintain price stability. Until mid-February, several factors influenced Vitamin D prices in Germany. Increased import costs from China, intensified by disruptions in the Red Sea and Chinese New Year festivities, put pressure on prices. Additionally, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, such as the Euro's decline against the USD, added to the financial difficulties for German importers.
In March, prices saw a slight decline due to abundant supply and decreased demand. In summary, the Vitamin D market in Germany was influenced by factors such as inflation, federal taxes, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Vitamin D market had a minor decline in price trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was ascribed to a decline in end-user demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries. Instability and an abundance of vitamin D on the shelves of domestic vendors characterized the market. The US Vitamin D market was cautiously optimistic towards the conclusion of the quarter, despite the difficulties posed by growing energy costs and unstable prices.
At the outset of the quarter, Vitamin D prices were recorded at $16,950/MT and tapered down to $15,910/MT FOB New Jersey by the quarter's close. Analysts observed minimal upward movement across various vitamins, with many remaining in a consolidation phase. Import volumes in Q4 2023 surpassed those of Q4 2022, suggesting that retailers may have completed destocking and were preparing for the holiday season in December.
As the quarter drew to a close, the American economy in 2023 was characterized as "miraculous." Despite concerns surrounding an imminent recession and managing inflation without substantial job losses, the US economy not only sidestepped recession but also displayed accelerated growth overall. In the final weeks of December, heightened consumer spending in the U.S. positively influenced the Vitamin D industry, resulting in price increases.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Vitamin D market in the APAC region exhibited diverse trends, with certain products experiencing price increases while others saw declines. Overall, the pricing chart for Vitamin D remained relatively stable throughout Q4 2023, indicating a negligible decline. Enhanced offtakes and export pricing contributed to higher Vitamin D prices across the Asia Pacific region, including China and India in the latter part of the quarter. However, demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors decreased, especially in November, leading to an imbalance in the market. Conversely, the nutraceutical market in India expanded due to improved economic conditions, increased production levels, and higher levels of new business inflows. In China, weak international demand resulted in significant price reductions despite increased production. The absence of new inquiries during the first half of the quarter from domestic or foreign markets further highlighted the decline in Vitamin D off-takes in China's end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. Vitamin D prices decreased from $8,990/MT to $8,660/MT from October to December. China's economy received attention in December due to improvements in PMI and better consumer confidence, with prices showing a gradual increase. Throughout the year, China's nutraceutical industry experienced mixed sentiments, with some product markets declining while others rebounded. Notably, the Vitamin D market demonstrated positive growth, with its price trend appreciating and ending the year on a promising note.
Europe
The European Vitamin D market remained static during the fourth quarter of 2023, following the US and Chinese trends. Due in large part to adequate supply levels, end-user demand from the food and beverage (F&B), pharmaceutical, and nutraceutical industries declined during the quarter, causing prices for Vitamin D to moderately dip. Due to the decrease in demand, there were fewer pricing discussions and limited new market inquiries. High supply levels also put pressure on the market, as domestic businesses kept large inventories in order to meet demand and over the fear of potential shortages ahead of the holiday season in December. The general decreasing trend in pricing was also influenced by the decline in energy prices. Furthermore, reduced end-user demand and sufficiency of vitamin D available on the domestic market are the main causes of the cost reduction. However, prices were reported at USD 8660/MT CFR Hamburg by December, demonstrating momentum in the German market by the conclusion of the quarter. Vitamin D quotations were seen increasing in China, a key exporter, in the latter part of the quarter, which contributed significantly to the price hike. As a result, vitamin D supplement purchases by German importers became more expensive, which encouraged local market expansion.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Rising from $16000/mt to $17500/mt from July to September, FOB New Jersey values for Vitamin D increased by +9.4% over the period, ending Q3 2023 on a bullish note. Due to the continued increase in demand for Vitamin D from the end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, the domestic market for this nutraceutical swung upwards throughout the quarter. Low to modest inventory levels, which only forced sellers to increase their offers each month, is by far the most prominent reason for the upward price trend for Vitamin D. The cost of importing nutraceuticals increased in the second half of the quarter due to currency fluctuations between the US dollar and the yuan. While inflation slowed slightly in the third quarter as a result of the complete turnaround in the US economy, the Fed's interest rate hikes kept market participants on their toes. From the first week of July, the United States saw a steep rise in warehouse prices, warehouse utilization and inventory levels. As a result, products such as Vitamin D rose in price as inventory and storage costs increased. Finally, in the run-up to China's Golden Week and Mid-Autumn Festival in early October, Chinese suppliers raised their prices in response to increased demand from overseas, particularly the US, causing prices to rise further. Although the inflation rate ticked up in August, it remains on a downward trend.
Asia Pacific
In contrast to the US market trend, the price of Vitamin D in China during Q3 decreased from $9340/mt to $9270/mt between July and September, indicating a minor breakdown in the price discussions. The second-largest economy in the world grew slowly in 2023 and had a bad start to the third quarter of 2023 due to high youth unemployment, declining deflation, and weak international demand. Low to moderate consumption in the end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in both domestic and foreign markets and high stock availability from local suppliers ought to be the main reasons for this price shift. Throughout the quarter there were only moderate levels of new enquiries. Despite the obvious reasons, the arrival of China's Golden Week in September had little to no impact on the country's vitamin D market as prices remained on the lower side, unlike other nutraceuticals. In terms of inventories - market players, having met general demand, kept supplies moderate as manufacturing production remained steady throughout the period.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, Vitamin D prices in Germany exhibited a consistent pattern, with values slightly rising from $10600/mt to $11000/mt from July to September. When things began to calm down and the economy began to strengthen in July, the German suppliers of Vitamin D placed large orders to replenish their stock and meet the growing demand across the country. However, the area of concern continued to be commerce. Since domestic pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries were always coming up with new questions, imports of Vitamin D from Asia, particularly China, stayed higher during the quarter. Germany's price increases have also been significantly influenced by the Euro's depreciation, as the strong US dollar has made it necessary for domestic companies to pay premium rates for items imported from China. High inflation and Germany's unfavorable manufacturing climate remained the main economic headwinds, and market participants continued to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the 2nd quarter of 2023, North America's market for Vitamin D showed a declining price trend. FOB New Jersey prices decreased from $16000 per metric tonne to $15650 per metric tonne between April and June 2023, a decrease of -2.1% over the quarter. In the US, cautious stocking by end-users in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries resulted in lower demand for vitamin D. Inflation in the country has been on a downward trend in the track of energy prices. Experts also believe that the fall in inflation is interim due to the ease in supply chain pressures. Despite the mixed sentiment on the prices of vitamins and other dietary supplements, the country's nutraceuticals market has shown a mixed pattern of market activity. Meanwhile, increasing wages for labor in the nation might continue to fuel inflation, most likely leading the Fed to raise rates again in July. However, the state of the United States economy is still unknown, and market participants in the dietary supplement and food industries continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter of 2023, the vitamin D market in the Asia-Pacific region showed a weakening price trend, as discussions for FOB Qingdao, China, fell from $10590 per tonne to $9900 per tonne between April and June 2023. From the first half of the second quarter of 2023, as the demand for vitamin D from downstream pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors declined domestically and internationally, this price decline became quite persistent. Chinese vitamin D producers were forced to sell the product at discounted margins due to lowered demand and inquiries from consumers. China's manufacturing activity contracted for the third month in a row in June, although at a slower pace, according to the Stats. The figures come as pressure mounts on the authorities to unleash more stimulus to support an economy that is flattening out after an initially strong post-COVID rebound in the first quarter. The June PMI also reflected several imbalances and vulnerabilities, including continuous domestic and external demand declines, accelerating small business activity declines, and mounting pressure on the country's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors.
Europe
The domestic vitamin D market in Germany was bearish in Q2 2023, with price discussions for CFR Hamburg falling from USD 12,000 per tonne to USD 10,800 per tonne from April to June 2023. One of the main reasons for this price decline in the German market was reduced demand from downstream sectors amid ample supplier inventories. In April, energy gas prices in Europe fell to their lowest level since the beginning of the crisis. This increased optimism for a stronger economic recovery, which undoubtedly helped trade from Asia. On the other hand, German unemployment rose more than expected in June, negatively impacting the market scenario. In order to avoid potential shortages in the future, retailers have been stockpiling the product Vitamin D in warehouses, leading them to lower their price margins later during the quarter in order to reduce their inventories. Inflation in Germany rose again in June by more than 6%. However, the impact on the country's vitamin D industry has yet to be felt. Market participants remain skeptical about the country's economic situation, as they are in the rest of the world and are treading water.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The price trend for Vitamin D remained bullish during the first quarter of 2023, with CFR prices in New Jersey ending up at $15800 per MT in January and $16200 per MT in March, respectively. Industry players had predicted that the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries would continue to sail through mixed sentiments during the first quarter of 2023 as a result of the market turbulence in the previous quarter. However, consistent end-user demand and moderate inquiries from downstream providers kept the market dynamics in check. The first half of the quarter benefited from China's easing of its zero-covid ban since the supply chain and trade remained healthy, which led to a decrease in freight costs.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, China's decision to abolish the severe COVID-19 limitations in the first week of January gave the trillion-dollar economy in the Asia Pacific region—China—new vitality after it had suffered significantly over the previous four years. China thus saw a marginally favorable first quarter of 2023. The FOB Shanghai pricing trend in the domestic Chinese market showed minimal change in the first quarter of 2023, with prices stabilizing at $10485 per MT in January and $10740 per MT in March. The price of Vitamin D in the domestic market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals saw a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks in January after a week-long Lunar vacation. The second part of the quarter's rise in market activity in China can be largely ascribed to low inventories and high demand.
Europe
The pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in Europe got off to a good start thanks to an increase in orders and shipments from both domestic and international markets during the first quarter. Prices for Vitamin D increased during the first quarter of 2023, rising from $12150/MT in January to $12340/MT in March. Participants in the local market saw successful arbitrage for the majority of this quarter since the outlook for supply and demand seemed bright. While the European market showed promising signs, the surprise reopening of China's COVID and the protracted crisis between Russia and Ukraine reduced inflation pressures. An improvement in end-user demand from both producers and suppliers allowed for a quick rebound in activity, which was further supported by this.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a further decline in Vitamin D prices due to the prolonged market turbulence in the U.S., with FOB New Jersey prices dropping from $18250/MT to $17220/MT from October to December. Imports from China were restrained during the first week of October due to the Golden Week holidays. In order to keep up with the demand, several domestic merchants had to increase their price bids. For the majority of the quarter, China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, growing U.S. inflation, and extreme weather—continued to put weak supply chains in danger. The second half of 2022 saw a steady improvement in the U.S. supply chain as the economy began to pick up steam and the port of New Jersey on the east coast saw a considerable reduction in ship backlogs after a protracted port backlog. Offtakes in the end-user industries remained consistent throughout the quarter in terms of demand.
Asia Pacific
During the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic Vitamin D market in China began to exhibit indications of contraction, with FOB Shanghai discussions dropping from $12210/MT to $10750/MT from October to December. The first week of October witnessed the shutdown of industrial facilities for the Golden Week, which caused China's manufacturing sector to experience a steady decline and the lowest export orders. The variety of conflicting signals that Chinese traders dealing with the return from the Golden Week holiday had to cope with making it difficult for the market to catch up to the modest gain recorded in some downstream industries during the first half of Q4. In the second half of Q4 2022, prices for a number of products surged due to China's Dual Control on Energy Consumption. Large amounts of inventories allowed domestic producers and suppliers to meet all domestic demand throughout the quarter. In reaction to protest and general unrest in the country, the administration altered its zero-covid restrictions, which once more put the country in a vulnerable position.
Europe
The European Vitamin D market continued to contract in quarter 4 of 2022, with CFR Hamburg values falling to $11990/MT in December from $13178/MT in October. In spite of rising energy prices and supply-chain snags, Germany's industrial production rose a little bit in October. Nevertheless, the problems with COVID-19, as well as the situations in Russia and Ukraine, all continued to have a negative impact on output. Demand-wise, offtakes were favorable in the end-user industries, whereas the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors struggled due to the increased cost of raw materials and energy.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The third quarter of 2022 in the United States saw a decline in Vitamin D prices, with prices assembling at $21780 per MT for FOB New Jersey in July and falling to $17500 per MT in September. Downstream demand in the US declined over the course of the quarter as a result of China's on and off lockdowns. The amount of Chinese industrial sites that were shut down for maintenance during the last week of July greatly reduced imports into the US. In the latter weeks of quarter 3, this had a significant effect on the downward pricing trend and the declining demand.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, the price trajectory of Vitamin D showcased positive sentiments in the Asia Pacific market, with values rising from $11200/mt to $11620/mt FOB Shanghai from July to September. The fluctuating cost of raw materials, change in currency fluctuation, and stable end-user sector demand are just a few of the variables that have influenced this price trend. Due to both the consistent offtakes and downstream demand during the first half, big suppliers only placed orders for immediate usage. However, some vitamin manufacturers conducted maintenance after the markets resumed operations in the final week of July, which decreased the amount of Vitamin D that was available for domestic as well as international providers.
Europe
The Vitamin D market in the European region remained steady throughout the quarter, with prices settling at $11630 per MT in September. Germany's economic decline this quarter was made worse by logistical problems caused by ongoing transportation bottlenecks. The continued port closures in China and the instability in Russia and Ukraine worsened the market situation in Europe. In the second half of the quarter, domestic merchants were compelled to increase their quotations due to the consistent demand from end customers of the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
After the market for vitamin D in North America started to experience a decline in value in the second half of the quarter, there were mixed sentiments across the region in Q2 of 2022. The COVID suspension in China's commercial centers, which significantly hampered the import of vitamin D into the country, exacerbated an already acute supply crisis in the US. Because of the US's escalating inflation, the unfavorable political situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the highly unpredictable oil prices, domestic traders and purchasers were apprehensive about high raw material prices throughout the quarter. Following the rapid change in oil prices in May, there was a slight increase in import, consumer, and production spending. The demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical businesses remained firm over the quarter.
Asia Pacific
The pricing trend for vitamin D in the Asia Pacific region showed a diminishing trend during the second quarter of 2022. During the first half of quarter 2, China's domestic market saw a strong increase in the production of nutraceuticals due to the opening of its factories and ports. The Chinese government again placed large production facilities on lockdown following a spike in COVID-19 cases during the latter week of April, which had various consequences on the country's nutraceutical markets. Transporting vitamin D to international markets became more challenging due to the nation's intermittent lockdowns and the Zero tolerance policy. In order to get rid of stocks before they expired, several firms were prepared to offer the items at a discount toward the end of the quarter. Throughout the quarter, the end-user industries' need for offtakes remained constant.
Europe
Despite a little dip in prices that began in April, the vitamin D market in the European region remained favorable throughout the second quarter of 2022. Russia and Ukraine's conflict increased transportation costs and hindered the flow of goods into Europe, making it more difficult for exporting countries to conduct business. Demand from end-user businesses was stable throughout the entire quarter. However, there was enough stock at the suppliers to satisfy all domestic demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The values of Vitamin D witnessed fluctuation amidst the consistent demand for vitamin D supplements by consumers from downstream pharmaceutical and cosmetic sectors in the US market. The prices decreased in January due to ample supplies in the market to cater to the consumer's needs. However, prices increased during mid-quarter due to prolonged shortages of raw materials amid the supply chain disruptions during the Russia – Ukraine war. The values remained firm at the end month of the quarter as the prices for FOB New Jersey got settled at USD 21620 per tonne in March.
Asia
In China, the prices of Vitamin D surged significantly amid the consistent demand for Vitamin D supplements from the consumers during 1st month of Q1. The values rose significantly owing to the closure of major pharmaceutical and nutraceutical manufacturing units in China due to the imposition of China's zero covid policy. However, the values remained firm in the H2 of Q1 due to port congestion and supply chain disruptions impacted by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In China, the vitamin D3 food-grade prices on FOB basis in China accessed at USD 15300 per tonne by the end of the quarter. In Indian Market, the prices remained firm due to the consistent demand for vitamin D in the pharmaceutical companies.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the values of Vitamin D witnessed an increase in the European market. The prices remained firm throughout due to consistent demand from the downstream pharmaceuticals and cosmetic industries in Europe. Most vitamins in Europe are imported from the China region only, so the increased values in China influenced the prices of vitamin D in the domestic market throughout Q1 of 2022. High freights costs from exporting countries to the region impacted the importing cost of materials and disrupted supply chains because the crisis in East Europe further increased the production cost of vitamin D3.The estimated FOB discussions for Vitamin D in Germany were USD13500 per MT in January.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In the North American region, the prices of Vitamin D decreased slightly in the domestic market during the fourth quarter of 2021. The stability in prices was observed in the last few weeks of November, followed by the stagnant demand growth, increased logistics, and improved supply fundamentals across the region after Q3 disruptions. Vitamin D prices deescalated from USD 22064/MT to USD 21755/MT FOB New Jersey from October and November. The consumption volumes remained consistent from the downstream nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industry throughout Q4. The supply fundamentals are likely to strengthen in Q1 2022, given there are no unforeseen weather conditions in the upcoming months.
Asia Pacific
During the fourth quarter of 2021, the prices of Vitamin D3 continued to slip downwards in the Chinese domestic market and decreased from USD 16148/MT to USD 12801/MT FOB Qingdao from October to December. The resumption of operations after turnarounds in several facilities forced the market players to organize their inventories and offer the material at competitive prices in the local markets. The Chinese authorities imposed another lockdown due to the resurgence of COVID, which hindered the supply chain and supported the agitation in the spot market in Q4. The consistent practices carried out by the authorities to curb the power rationing proportionally dropped the production cost of Vitamin D in November in the Chinese domestic market. An adequate trading and ample momentum at the transactions of Vitamin D at the spot market led to improvement in the producer's quoted offers as the prices stabilized in the fourth week of November. The offers for Vitamin D rebounded tremendously in the final week of December due to the supply glut induced by the forced closure of a couple of Nutraceutical facilities, including ZMC and NHU in Zhejiang province amidst the rising COVID cases. In India, the pricing trend of Vitamin D showcased an upward trajectory in the domestic market on the back of the improved supplies from China as the nutraceutical producers were keen to destock their inventories ahead of year-end.
Europe
In Europe, the market trend of Vitamin D demonstrated an upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2021. As Vitamins are majorly imported from China in Netherlands and Germany, increased raw materials prices, peaking energy crises, and high freight costs forced to trade the product at high prices across the region. The demand from the downstream industries, including nutraceutical and pharmaceutical, remained strong throughout the quarter.
