For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a further decline in Vitamin D prices due to the prolonged market turbulence in the U.S., with FOB New Jersey prices dropping from $18250/MT to $17220/MT from October to December. Imports from China were restrained during the first week of October due to the Golden Week holidays. In order to keep up with the demand, several domestic merchants had to increase their price bids. For the majority of the quarter, China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, growing U.S. inflation, and extreme weather—continued to put weak supply chains in danger. The second half of 2022 saw a steady improvement in the U.S. supply chain as the economy began to pick up steam and the port of New Jersey on the east coast saw a considerable reduction in ship backlogs after a protracted port backlog. Offtakes in the end-user industries remained consistent throughout the quarter in terms of demand.
Asia Pacific
During the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic Vitamin D market in China began to exhibit indications of contraction, with FOB Shanghai discussions dropping from $12210/MT to $10750/MT from October to December. The first week of October witnessed the shutdown of industrial facilities for the Golden Week, which caused China's manufacturing sector to experience a steady decline and the lowest export orders. The variety of conflicting signals that Chinese traders dealing with the return from the Golden Week holiday had to cope with making it difficult for the market to catch up to the modest gain recorded in some downstream industries during the first half of Q4. In the second half of Q4 2022, prices for a number of products surged due to China's Dual Control on Energy Consumption. Large amounts of inventories allowed domestic producers and suppliers to meet all domestic demand throughout the quarter. In reaction to protest and general unrest in the country, the administration altered its zero-covid restrictions, which once more put the country in a vulnerable position.
Europe
The European Vitamin D market continued to contract in quarter 4 of 2022, with CFR Hamburg values falling to $11990/MT in December from $13178/MT in October. In spite of rising energy prices and supply-chain snags, Germany's industrial production rose a little bit in October. Nevertheless, the problems with COVID-19, as well as the situations in Russia and Ukraine, all continued to have a negative impact on output. Demand-wise, offtakes were favorable in the end-user industries, whereas the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors struggled due to the increased cost of raw materials and energy.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The third quarter of 2022 in the United States saw a decline in Vitamin D prices, with prices assembling at $21780 per MT for FOB New Jersey in July and falling to $17500 per MT in September. Downstream demand in the US declined over the course of the quarter as a result of China's on and off lockdowns. The amount of Chinese industrial sites that were shut down for maintenance during the last week of July greatly reduced imports into the US. In the latter weeks of quarter 3, this had a significant effect on the downward pricing trend and the declining demand.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, the price trajectory of Vitamin D showcased positive sentiments in the Asia Pacific market, with values rising from $11200/mt to $11620/mt FOB Shanghai from July to September. The fluctuating cost of raw materials, change in currency fluctuation, and stable end-user sector demand are just a few of the variables that have influenced this price trend. Due to both the consistent offtakes and downstream demand during the first half, big suppliers only placed orders for immediate usage. However, some vitamin manufacturers conducted maintenance after the markets resumed operations in the final week of July, which decreased the amount of Vitamin D that was available for domestic as well as international providers.
Europe
The Vitamin D market in the European region remained steady throughout the quarter, with prices settling at $11630 per MT in September. Germany's economic decline this quarter was made worse by logistical problems caused by ongoing transportation bottlenecks. The continued port closures in China and the instability in Russia and Ukraine worsened the market situation in Europe. In the second half of the quarter, domestic merchants were compelled to increase their quotations due to the consistent demand from end customers of the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
After the market for vitamin D in North America started to experience a decline in value in the second half of the quarter, there were mixed sentiments across the region in Q2 of 2022. The COVID suspension in China's commercial centers, which significantly hampered the import of vitamin D into the country, exacerbated an already acute supply crisis in the US. Because of the US's escalating inflation, the unfavorable political situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the highly unpredictable oil prices, domestic traders and purchasers were apprehensive about high raw material prices throughout the quarter. Following the rapid change in oil prices in May, there was a slight increase in import, consumer, and production spending. The demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical businesses remained firm over the quarter.
Asia Pacific
The pricing trend for vitamin D in the Asia Pacific region showed a diminishing trend during the second quarter of 2022. During the first half of quarter 2, China's domestic market saw a strong increase in the production of nutraceuticals due to the opening of its factories and ports. The Chinese government again placed large production facilities on lockdown following a spike in COVID-19 cases during the latter week of April, which had various consequences on the country's nutraceutical markets. Transporting vitamin D to international markets became more challenging due to the nation's intermittent lockdowns and the Zero tolerance policy. In order to get rid of stocks before they expired, several firms were prepared to offer the items at a discount toward the end of the quarter. Throughout the quarter, the end-user industries' need for offtakes remained constant.
Europe
Despite a little dip in prices that began in April, the vitamin D market in the European region remained favorable throughout the second quarter of 2022. Russia and Ukraine's conflict increased transportation costs and hindered the flow of goods into Europe, making it more difficult for exporting countries to conduct business. Demand from end-user businesses was stable throughout the entire quarter. However, there was enough stock at the suppliers to satisfy all domestic demand.
The values of Vitamin D witnessed fluctuation amidst the consistent demand for vitamin D supplements by consumers from downstream pharmaceutical and cosmetic sectors in the US market. The prices decreased in January due to ample supplies in the market to cater to the consumer's needs. However, prices increased during mid-quarter due to prolonged shortages of raw materials amid the supply chain disruptions during the Russia – Ukraine war. The values remained firm at the end month of the quarter as the prices for FOB New Jersey got settled at USD 21620 per tonne in March.
During the first quarter of 2022, the values of Vitamin D witnessed an increase in the European market. The prices remained firm throughout due to consistent demand from the downstream pharmaceuticals and cosmetic industries in Europe. Most vitamins in Europe are imported from the China region only, so the increased values in China influenced the prices of vitamin D in the domestic market throughout Q1 of 2022. High freights costs from exporting countries to the region impacted the importing cost of materials and disrupted supply chains because the crisis in East Europe further increased the production cost of vitamin D3.The estimated FOB discussions for Vitamin D in Germany were USD13500 per MT in January.
