For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market exhibited a mix of bearish and bullish sentiments shaped by seasonal patterns, cost fluctuations, and evolving demand. January started on a subdued note, marked by limited agricultural activity ahead of the planting season and shifting attention toward alternative fertilizers, which kept market momentum restrained. Volatile input costs further clouded outlooks, as market participants remained hesitant amid uneven price signals.
February brought a shift in sentiment as improving weather and early preparations for spring planting sparked renewed buying interest. This led to stronger trade volumes and firmer pricing as players sought to secure supplies in anticipation of upcoming demand, despite continued input cost fluctuations. March maintained a cautiously optimistic tone as seasonal applications slowly gained pace. Although the rise in demand was gradual, favorable weather and improved logistical conditions fostered a more active trading environment. Steady procurement from the agrochemical sector and increased liquidity at key hubs encouraged slight pricing gains and reflected a modest bullish shift.
Overall, the quarter captured a dynamic interplay between slow initial activity and an eventual demand-led revival, highlighting how seasonal, economic, and logistical factors collectively influenced the market’s mixed sentiment during the early months of the year.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in the APAC region displayed mixed sentiments, largely shaped by seasonal agricultural trends, global supply disruptions, and shifting procurement strategies. January opened on a bearish note, with demand remaining subdued due to the absence of the plantation season, limiting fertilizer purchases from the agrochemical sector. Despite ongoing export restrictions from China, which typically support pricing, the weak domestic demand, and cautious procurement behavior kept the market under downward pressure. However, the market sentiment shifted dramatically in February as the plantation season gained momentum and Chinese export limitations continued to tighten the global phosphate supply. This led to a surge in demand from agricultural buyers looking to secure stock ahead of peak season, further fueled by weather-induced logistical disruptions that constrained supply chains and delayed shipments. As a result, bullish sentiment took hold, with buyers racing to mitigate supply risks and maintain fertilizer availability. By March, bullishness continued in the broader fertilizer space, especially in the Water Soluble Fertilizers segment, where ongoing global supply shortages, cost inflation, and low inventories sustained upward pricing trends. Yet, affordability concerns and purchasing hesitancy tempered the pace of market activity, reflecting a cautious optimism. Overall, Q1 was marked by an evolving balance between supply-side constraints and fluctuating seasonal demand.
Europe
The first quarter of 2025 exhibited mixed market sentiments in Water Soluble Fertilizers due to a combination of demand limitations, regulatory changes, and supply-side uncertainties. In January, poor affordability and the absence of the plantation season curtailed demand, maintaining a bearish tone despite existing supply restrictions. February brought a complex dynamic as the EU introduced trade restrictions on Russian ports, yet exempted fertilizers, preventing immediate disruptions. Simultaneously, delays in CBAM enforcement and the possibility of wider exemptions offered some regulatory relief. However, the proposal of new tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers raised alarms within the European farming community, fueling concerns about cost escalations. These uncertainties were further amplified by varying regional trends, such as steady demand in Ukraine, tight supply in Western Europe, and sluggish interest in markets like Turkey and Romania. By March, the sentiment remained mixed, as buyers encountered constrained supply choices, particularly from Russia, despite a slight increase in forward offers. Yet, demand recovery remained tepid, and looming tariff proposals added another layer of caution, with market players anticipating potential price hikes. These contrasting forces—regulatory shifts, geopolitical tensions, and uneven demand—shaped a volatile and fragmented landscape across the global fertilizer market during Q1.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizer (WSF) market in the North American region faced consistent bearish trends due to subdued demand, sufficient inventory levels, and limited market activity. Despite fluctuating production costs driven by changes in feedstock prices, oversupply remained a dominant factor, suppressing market sentiment. Ample inventories across the country, combined with a lack of significant buying activity, prevented price recovery.
Imports of WSF increased slightly year-on-year, with higher volumes from key suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Morocco, while exports declined, particularly to Brazil. Weather-related disruptions, including heavy rainfall in the Midwest, delayed fall applications, and limited demand from the agrochemical sector. These delays, coupled with slower market activity during the peak plantation season, further reinforced the bearish outlook.
December experienced destocking efforts by sellers aiming to reduce inventory levels before year-end, while market players refrained from placing new orders amid weak demand. Limited trading activity and cautious buyer behavior highlighted the challenges faced by the WSF market, as participants focused on balancing supply and demand amidst uncertain economic conditions. This period underscored the critical role of inventory management in navigating a persistently bearish market environment.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizer (WSF) market in the APAC region faced sustained bearish trends due to weak demand, oversupply, and export restrictions. Despite rising feedstock costs earlier in the quarter, subdued demand from the agrochemical sector and high inventory levels kept market sentiment low. Production rates remained elevated, contributing to an oversupply situation, although some reductions in output were observed toward the end of the quarter. Export restrictions aimed at ensuring domestic supply and stabilizing prices further constrained market opportunities, leading to cautious buyer behavior and reduced transactions. Demand remained sluggish as domestic buyers hesitated to build winter reserves, while international exports declined, except for stronger shipments to Brazil. Logistical challenges, such as delayed export inspections and halted customs clearances, added to market uncertainty. By December, declining feedstock costs provided slight relief, but producers were focused on clearing existing inventories, reflecting persistent bearish conditions. Speculation over potential policy changes in early 2025 further compounded market hesitancy. The combination of supply imbalances, regulatory constraints, and cautious downstream demand shaped a challenging market environment, underscoring the ongoing difficulties in aligning production with global and domestic demand dynamics.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizer (WSF) market in Europe experienced challenges stemming from limited demand and various external factors. Extreme weather conditions across the region hindered agricultural activities, reducing the need for WSF in several key markets. Additionally, affordability issues played a role in curbing purchasing activity, as high production costs and economic pressures affected buyer confidence. Despite these challenges, there were signs of potential market relief towards the end of the quarter. Declines in FOB prices from major exporting countries such as Morocco provided some hope for more competitive pricing in Western Europe. This development led to expectations of slightly lower FCA prices in the coming weeks, which could stimulate more activity in the market. However, the broader market remained cautious as weak demand persisted, compounded by the impact of weather disruptions on the agrochemical sector. Throughout the quarter, inventory levels remained a critical factor, with many buyers hesitant to purchase in large volumes, awaiting more favorable conditions. As a result, market participants had to carefully navigate the complex interplay of supply, demand, and price fluctuations in the European WSF market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market witnessed a marked decline in prices, with the USA experiencing the most significant reductions. A primary factor driving this trend was the drop in demand from the downstream agrochemical sector, leading to an accumulation of inventory and limited buying activity. This demand decrease left suppliers with excess stock, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance that further pressured prices downward.
Additionally, global supply chain disruptions exacerbated cost pressures, including increased freight charges that added complexity to logistics, ultimately contributing to the downward pricing trend. In the USA, these challenges were especially evident, with WSF prices recording a -4% change compared to the previous quarter. Seasonal factors also played a role, as certain agricultural activities slowed, reducing the immediate need for fertilizers and compounding the bearish market sentiment.
Efforts were made within the industry to revive demand and adjust production to better match market needs; however, these adjustments were not enough to counterbalance the downward trend. By the end of Q3, Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP), a prominent WSF, was priced at USD 597/MT in the USA, underscoring the steady decline in pricing throughout the quarter and reflecting the challenging pricing environment faced by the North American WSF market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in the APAC region experienced an increase in prices, with China witnessing the most significant price changes. Several factors influenced this surge in market prices. Incline in the demand from the agrochemical sector, especially during the critical planting season, played a pivotal role in driving prices upwards. Additionally, supply chain disruptions, rising global demand, and logistical challenges contributed to the bullish sentiment in the market. The quarter witnessed a consistent trend of escalating prices, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. During this quarter, China experienced the maximum price changes in the WSF market. Seasonality, increased production costs, and heightened demand from downstream sectors were key drivers of the price surge. Moreover, disruptions in the supply chain and intensified freight charges further bolstered prices. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices increased by 2%, showcasing a continuous upward trajectory. The quarter-ending price for Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) in China stood at USD 536/MT FOB Qingdao, indicating a persistently bullish pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizer (WSF) market in Europe witnessed a significant price uptrend, driven by a combination of rising feedstock costs and seasonal demand pressures. A notable factor influencing the market’s bullish trend was the increased production cost, particularly due to fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials. Ammonia prices, in particular, experienced a steep climb, adding considerable upward pressure on WSF costs, while Phosphoric Acid prices remained comparatively stable, balancing the overall production cost structure. The spread between Ammonia, Phosphoric Acid, and WSF prices thus widened, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment in the market. Adding to this was the onset of the plantation season, which spiked demand across Europe as farmers sought enhanced nutrient solutions for their crops, further tightening supply. This seasonal demand surge, coupled with constrained WSF availability, pushed prices higher throughout the quarter. These combined factors amplified the WSF market's value, establishing Q3 2024 as a period of notable growth in pricing and underscoring the market’s sensitivity to both feedstock fluctuations and seasonal agricultural cycles in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in North America faced a challenging quarter marked by a consistent decrease in prices. The overall pricing environment was decidedly negative, primarily driven by several significant factors. High labour, equipment, and crop protection costs pressured farmers to tighten budgets, significantly reducing their expenditure on WSF. Industry-wide destocking efforts by distributors and retailers further compounded the issue, leading to surplus inventories and exacerbating price declines. Higher interest rates influenced these stakeholders to manage working capital more conservatively, contributing to a bearish market sentiment.
Despite ample supply levels facilitated by regular material inflows, logistical challenges, particularly at key ports like the Port of Baltimore, disrupted normal operations and added to the market's instability. In the USA, WSF prices experienced the most significant shifts, reflecting overall trends, seasonality, and price correlations. The agriculture sector's low consumption levels during this period led to a noticeable -23% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. Additionally, there was a stark -9% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter.
The upcoming harvesting season also temporarily suppressed demand, further fuelling the downward trend. The quarter culminated with the price of Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) FOB Texas settling at USD 610/MT, marking an overall negative sentiment for the WSF pricing environment in the region. This decreasing trend underscores the need for adaptive strategies to navigate ongoing market challenges.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant decline in the prices of Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) across the APAC region. This downward trend has been driven by multiple factors, the most notable being subdued demand from downstream markets and reduced costs of raw materials. Further compounding this decline is the excess supply in the market, as logistical challenges and regulatory restrictions have impeded smooth trade flows globally. The overall bearish sentiment has made buyers adopt a more passive stance, further pressuring prices downward. Additionally, disruptions in the supply chain and occasional plant shutdowns have exacerbated the situation. In China, the impact has been particularly pronounced. The second quarter saw WSF prices falling due to ample supply and stagnant demand post the Lunar New Year. Seasonality played a critical role, with market activities typically slowing down during this period, contributing to the oversupply scenario. The decrease from the previous quarter is stark, recorded at -25%, highlighting the severity of the price drop. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, a further -10% reduction was observed, underscoring the continuous downward pressure on prices. The quarter ended with Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) prices at USD 521/MT FOB Qingdao. This consistent decline in pricing reflects a negative environment for WSF, driven by supply surplus, logistical issues, and weakened downstream demand, creating a challenging market landscape for producers and traders alike.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European mono ammonium phosphate (MAP) market experienced notable dynamics. The market saw a price increase, driven by several factors including supply constraints and heightened demand. Western sanctions on Russia and the conclusion of the Black Sea deal further complicated the supply chain, impacting the availability of MAP in Europe.
Despite these challenges, the demand for MAP remained robust, particularly from the agricultural sector, which relies heavily on this fertilizer for its high nitrogen and phosphorus content. The stringent EU regulations on phosphate fertilizers have led to a gradual shift towards bio-based organic fertilizers, which could potentially hinder the growth of the MAP market in the long term. However, in the short term, the demand for MAP continues to be strong due to its effectiveness and established use in the industry. The market dynamics were also influenced by global trends, with Europe being a significant player in the global MAP market. Nonetheless, the immediate impact of supply constraints and increasing demand has led to upward price movements for MAP in Europe during Q2 2024.
