For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. wheat market experienced notable price fluctuations shaped by shifting global dynamics and domestic supply-demand trends. January began with a slight price decline, largely driven by weak international demand and heightened competition from alternative suppliers. A stronger dollar and volatile freight rates further discouraged exports, while rising winter wheat acreage and stable domestic production tempered market sentiment. Export activity remained limited as buyers engaged in minimal, need-based purchases.
February saw a sharp reversal, with wheat prices rising significantly due to tightening global supply conditions. Concerns over adverse weather in Europe, Russia, and parts of the U.S., coupled with Russia’s wheat export quota, tightened global availability and boosted demand for American wheat. The USDA also reported a 24 percent drop in soft red winter wheat output, further constraining supply. Procurement by the Food for Progress program added additional strain, leading to intensified upward price pressure.
However, in March, the market shifted once again, with prices falling amid global market weakness and improving crop prospects. The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 2.6 percent, reflecting a broader drop in international grain prices. Favorable U.S. weather and strong yield expectations softened the market, while reduced demand from major buyers like China and uncertainties over trade tariffs kept trading activity subdued. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a bearish tone despite earlier bullish momentum.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, the Indian wheat market displayed significant price volatility, beginning with record highs in January followed by a brief dip in February, and ending with a strong rebound in March. January’s rally was driven by tight market supplies and vigorous demand from flour mills. Prices surged well beyond the minimum support price despite government-imposed stockholding limits, raising concerns over food inflation. The government responded with a long-term infrastructure investment plan to boost storage capacity, while wheat acreage hit an all-time high amid favorable winter rainfall in key northern states.
February saw a temporary easing of prices as increased cultivation and a ban on exports ensured stable domestic availability. Record-high production estimates and government-mandated stock limits further discouraged speculative activity. Meanwhile, demand was subdued due to restrained offtake by the milling and packaged food sectors and signs of cooling industrial activity, which softened market sentiment.
By March, prices rebounded sharply. Aggressive government procurement—over 8 million tonnes toward a 31 million tonne target—tightened open market supplies. Additional bonuses in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan prompted farmers to prioritize public channels, reducing private sector access. Weather uncertainties, especially unseasonal heat threatening yields, introduced a risk premium. Simultaneously, improving rural distribution and a slight economic upturn supported rising demand. These converging supply constraints and robust end-user consumption sustained bullish momentum in India’s wheat market by the end of the quarter.
Europe
Throughout Q1 2025, the European wheat market experienced heightened volatility, largely shaped by sharp price increases in Russian wheat and evolving global trade patterns. In January, Russian wheat prices surged to multi-month highs due to adverse weather, lower production, and policy measures such as export quotas and variable taxes. This led to a sharp 50 percent year-on-year decline in Russian exports. Despite a notable 25–30 percent drop in freight rates, rising FOB prices offset cost savings, prompting European buyers to diversify sources, increasingly turning to Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and Southeast Europe. These developments underscored tightening supply and persistent uncertainty in the regional wheat market.
February brought continued price escalation, fueled by Russia’s implementation of a 10.6 million-ton wheat export quota. As Russian export volumes shrank and weather-related concerns intensified across Europe, global buyers aggressively sought alternative suppliers. This sustained upward momentum in European wheat prices, even as exporters faced narrowing profit margins due to rising operational costs and limited capacity.
In March, the trend persisted. Russian wheat exports plummeted nearly 65 percent year over year, reducing regional availability and sustaining price pressure. The number of active Russian exporters and terminals also fell significantly, compounding supply issues. Despite slight easing in global wheat prices, domestic inflation and logistical constraints kept European wheat markets elevated and competitive. Q1 concluded with firm market sentiment amid constrained supply and shifting trade flows.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, U.S. wheat export prices exhibited a mixed trajectory, influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors. While prices initially remained elevated due to tight global supply conditions, driven by adverse weather in key wheat-producing regions and historically low inventory levels, a gradual downward trend emerged by December. Favorable global harvests, particularly in Argentina and Australia, along with competitive export offerings from Russia, exerted downward pressure on U.S. wheat prices.
Geopolitical developments, including the reopening of export routes from Ukraine, further intensified competition, limiting U.S. export competitiveness. Domestic market activity reflected subdued trading sentiments as buyers operated on a need-based approach, exacerbated by sluggish demand from major importing regions such as Asia and Africa. Broader economic headwinds, including persistent inflation, high interest rates, and reduced global wheat consumption, compounded the downward price pressure.
The December 2024 FAO Cereal Price Index showed stability, with U.S. wheat prices largely subdued despite robust export forecasts for the 2024/25 season. Contractionary trends in U.S. manufacturing, evidenced by a PMI drop to 49.4 in December, added to the cautious market outlook, with weaker export orders and lower capacity utilization impacting broader economic activity. Overall, the U.S. wheat market faced significant challenges in maintaining momentum amid global competition, soft demand, and economic constraints throughout quarter four.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, the Indian wheat market experienced dynamic fluctuations shaped by supply constraints, government interventions, and shifting demand patterns. October saw escalating wheat prices driven by reduced domestic availability due to lower-than-expected production caused by adverse weather and a curtailed procurement season earlier in the year. The festive season amplified demand for wheat-based products, exacerbating the supply crunch and inflationary pressures. In response, the government retained export restrictions and explored tariff relaxations for imports, although high global prices and logistical challenges limited their efficacy. By November, wheat prices reached record highs as supply tightened further due to unseasonal rains, decreased acreage, and increased input costs. Robust export demand and speculative trading intensified the scarcity, prompting traders to stockpile and inflate prices. However, by December, prices began to stabilize, showing a marginal decline due to ample domestic stockpiles bolstered by government procurement efforts and weaker export demand. Subdued consumption, influenced by inflationary pressures and declining global wheat prices, contributed to this stabilization. As a result, overall, the market's trajectory highlighted the interplay between domestic supply-demand dynamics, global trade factors, and the impact of government policies on price trends, setting the stage for potential adjustments in early 2025.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, wheat export dynamics in Russia demonstrated significant volatility due to a combination of restrictive government policies, adverse weather conditions, and global market disruptions. October witnessed a sharp rise in export prices, driven by the implementation of a price floor, increased export duties, and unfavorable weather impacting wheat yields. These measures, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, tightened supply availability and elevated logistical risks, underscoring Russia's critical role in global wheat trade. Conversely, November saw a notable decline in export prices, reflecting increased competition from other major exporters like Argentina and Australia, lower regional and overseas quotations and weekend demand arriving from end-user livestock and other sectors. However, this bearish trend was short-lived as December marked another price hike due to poor winter crop conditions, with 37% of the crop in its worst state in decades, raising concerns over yield and survival rates. Government interventions, including tighter export quotas, higher taxes, and mandated domestic sales, further constrained international supply. While European exporters struggled with high costs and declining export volumes, Russia maintained its competitive edge, sustaining higher prices despite global challenges. The outlook for MY 2025-26 hinges on critical factors such as winter crop survival, spring planting, and overall weather conditions, leaving the market sensitive to production and policy developments.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America:
In Q3 2024, the North American Wheat market witnessed a significant uptrend in prices driven by a combination of factors. Excessive wet conditions in various parts of the United States continued to reduced overall wheat availability, causing demand to outstrip supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
While, on the other side, the International demand for U.S. wheat surged, particularly from countries experiencing domestic shortages or geopolitical tensions, which further drove up prices. Higher input costs, including rising prices of fertilizers, energy, and transportation, increased the production cost for U.S. wheat farmers, and these costs were reflected in the export prices. Additionally, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies during this period, making U.S. wheat more competitive in global markets. This spurred increased demand, allowing U.S. exporters to raise prices. Trade policies and tariff shifts in other wheat-exporting countries may have also made U.S. wheat more attractive to global buyers, further fueling demand.
Overall, the USA, experiencing the most substantial price changes, navigated a challenging quarter marked by supply constraints and higher demand from end-user industries. Despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trend in Q3 was positive and concluded with Wheat priced at USD 250/MT FOB Chicago, reflecting a consistently rising pricing environment. Disruptions like [Black Sea shipping infrastructure damage] added complexity to the market dynamics.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC Region witnessed a notable surge in Wheat prices, driven by a confluence of factors. The market experienced heightened volatility due to supply constraints stemming from adverse weather conditions impacting key wheat-producing regions. This led to reduced harvest yields, exacerbating the already tight supply situation. Furthermore, robust demand from various downstream sectors, such as food processing and animal feed industries, sustained upward price momentum. In India, the pricing environment for Wheat saw the most significant fluctuations. The market exhibited a consistent upward trend, reflecting the delicate balance between constrained supply and escalating demand. As a result, traders and buyers have been compelled to accept goods at elevated costs, further cementing the price trend. Looking ahead, price rise in other nations ahead of weather issues also impacts the overall wheat availability across the global market, further supporting the higher prices. Overall, this situation underscores the vulnerability of agricultural markets to climate variability and the cascading effects of policy decisions. While, the overall quarter culminated with a price of USD 300.69/MT Ex Bareilly, signalling a persistent bullish sentiment in the pricing landscape.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European wheat market experienced a consistent upward price trend, driven by supply constraints and strong demand. Wheat prices surged due to a combination of reduced harvests, adverse climatic conditions, and logistical disruptions, which collectively tightened market availability. Ukraine played a pivotal role, witnessing significant price fluctuations as it emerged as a key wheat exporter, catering to heightened global demand amidst limited supply from alternative regions. The quarter saw active export activity from Ukraine, with increased volumes pushing up domestic prices. Ukrainian wheat, valued for its quality and competitive pricing, became a sought-after commodity, particularly in regions where local production had declined. The supply-side was further strained by weather challenges and geopolitical tensions, making it difficult for farmers to meet delivery schedules, thus tightening supply and raising prices. On the demand side, both domestic and international buyers intensified their procurement efforts due to shortages or elevated wheat prices in other markets. This competition drove prices higher throughout the quarter, despite a notable drop at the start. The quarter ultimately closed with a 4% increase in wheat prices compared to Q2, reaching USD 228/MT FOB Odessa. This price rise reflects the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions and robust demand, marking a strong pricing environment for wheat in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American wheat market experienced a volatile journey, ultimately trending upward despite fluctuations. The quarter began with a downturn driven by substantial offers from major producers like the USA and Russia, alongside robust global exports. This initial decline was fueled by predictions of surplus wheat from large harvests, reduced consumption in flour mills, and a strong dollar making wheat more expensive for foreign buyers.
Mid-quarter saw a price resurgence due to global production volatility, adverse weather in key regions, and geopolitical tensions. A potential North American rail strike raised supply chain concerns, while increased freight charges and logistical delays, particularly in major shipping routes, added complexity. The transition from winter to spring sowing also contributed to price volatility through speculative trading.
However, as June began, prices dropped again, reflecting seasonal pressure from northern hemisphere harvests. The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased, with global export prices falling across all major cereals. The U.S. market faced high supply due to substantial inventories and reduced end-user quotations. Competition from producers like Canada, along with improved weather conditions, weakened U.S. market dominance.
Throughout the quarter, the market remained in flux, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance. The situation led to narrower profit margins and decreased profitability for wheat and other row crops as output prices declined faster than input costs. This volatility underscored the complex interplay of factors influencing the North American wheat market in Q2 2024.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable drop in wheat prices due to several key factors. The quarter began witnessing a downward trajectory with a steady upward in the middle and the end of the quarter. Starting with April 2024, Wheat prices witnessed a pessimistic market outlook, with Indian domestic markets experiencing notable weakness and prices dropping by more than 5 percent as April 2024 commenced. This drop in the purchases so far was largely due to late harvesting in some major growing states and also because of the ongoing elections in north India as traders already possessed more than sufficient stocks. Supporting this further, various market players and farmers were additionally resistant to destocking their stocks, resulting in weakened procurements within the market. This drop in procurement could also be on account of farmers holding on to their produce in anticipation of higher rates later during the year or increased buying by private players who are looking to replenish their inventories by selling them at a higher price. Concerning the supply side, there was sufficient availability of Wheat to meet the demands of end-user industries. Moreover, with the arrival of recent harvesting, the inventories concerning Wheat continued to remain on the upper side concerning the overall demand arriving from the region. Spot market transactions involving Wheat were on a moderate level with market demand majorly based on previous stockpiles held by the traders, driven primarily by immediate necessities. Moving further in May and June the prices rebound yet steadily supporting a modest rise in regional and overseas demand. However, despite of steady upward trend, the overall market sentiments remained subdued marking a pessimistic trend. Factors supporting this modest resurgence in the prices were influenced by improved market transactions, a steady rise in procurements among end-users, and farmers holding onto their wheat instead of selling it to the government which further resulted in a decreasing the overall supply available in the market. Another contributing factor is the continuous depreciation of the INR against the dollar, which has made wheat imports costlier for downstream sectors, leading traders and buyers to grapple with higher prices. Conclusively, the pricing environment in India for Q2 2024 has been on the downward side with the supply side still outspacing the demand side of the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European wheat market, particularly in Ukraine, experienced a significant upward trend in prices, driven by a complex interplay of factors that reshaped market dynamics. The quarter was characterized by adverse weather conditions across Europe, including severe droughts and unseasonable frosts, which had a detrimental impact on crop yields and depleted existing stockpiles. These climatic challenges were particularly acute in Ukraine, where unpredictable weather patterns disrupted critical growth phases, leading to diminished harvest prospects and heightened market uncertainty. Supply chain disruptions further exacerbated the situation. The shutdown of key agricultural processing plants and damage to export infrastructure constricted wheat availability, creating bottlenecks in the distribution network. This logistical strain coincided with an increase in global demand, as import-dependent nations rushed to secure their supplies amidst growing concerns of prolonged shortages. Ukraine emerged as the epicenter of price volatility within the region. The country witnessed the most dramatic price changes, driven by a combination of weather-related yield reductions and escalating production costs. Rising input expenses, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, heightened export demand further strained the already tight supply, pushing prices higher. Seasonality played a crucial role in price dynamics. The planting and flowering stages of wheat crops were especially vulnerable to the extreme weather events experienced during the quarter, amplifying concerns about future harvests and driving speculative activity in the market. Analyzing the quarter's price trends reveals a notable pattern. The Q2 saw a substantial price increase compared to the first quarter. This upward trajectory is further evidenced by a 6% increase from the previous quarter, underscoring the persistent bullish sentiment in the market. The quarter concluded on an optimistic note, reflecting a positive pricing environment despite the numerous challenges faced. This price point indicates that supply constraints were the primary driver of market dynamics, overshadowing demand fluctuations and consistently pushing prices higher.
