For the Quarter Ending September 2022
In North America, due to unfavourable weather and the dismissal of the US harvest, wheat prices varied during the third quarter. Due to excessive demand and insufficient supply on the domestic market in the first part of Q3, the price of Wheat was steadily rising. The crops were impacted by the drought and excessive heatwaves, which made the product harder to find. Due to improved weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, prices fell by 4.2% in the second month of Q3. The weather returned to normal, and the output forecast was enhanced by adequate stockpiles. The variation in the price of Wheat in North America has been further reinforced by this. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 460/MT for FOB Chicago USA in September 2022.
Wheat prices in the Asia-Pacific area fluctuated during the Q3 of 2022 due to concerns over crop conditions in several leading exporting countries. In the first half of Q3, due to rising demand, the supply-demand mismatch, and the diminished prospects for manufacturing in Ukraine because of the war, the price soared. Additionally, more than 25% of the world's food grains are produced in India, and Wheat is grown during the rabi season, which is impacted by extreme heat and drought. Later in the second half of Q3, during the second month, the price decreased as the Indian Government restricted wheat flour exports to ease record local prices. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Tallow Oil was recorded to be USD 278/MT for Ex Indore India in September 2022.
In Europe, Wheat's price decreased during the Q3 of 2022, backed by the drop in part because commercial exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports have resumed. Grain exports from Ukraine were resumed in the first half of Q3, providing food and fertilizer supplies, which was essential to maintaining a downtrend globally. Due to a significant presence of stocks in the domestic market later in the second half of Q3, the price was constantly following the downward trend in the price of the product. Wheat prices fell in the European home market because of a strong increase in the crop production and harvesting area, high yield, and high overall supply fundamentals in the region. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Tallow Oil was recorded to be USD 312/MT for FOB Novorossiysk Russia in September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
In North America, Wheat prices fluctuated throughout the quarter of Q2, owing to the unfavourable weather conditions and dismissal of harvests in the US. In the first half of Q2, the price of Wheat was continuously decreasing due to weak demand and sufficient availability of the product in the domestic market. During the second month of Q2, the price increased by 8% due to the heatwaves, which devastated domestic crop production. Moreover, the US suffered drought conditions during early May, significantly decreasing the Wheat crop yield with lower winter production. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 440/MT FOB Chicago (USA) in June 2022.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the price of Wheat was avidly increasing due to concerns over crop conditions in several leading exporting countries. In the first half of Q2, the price increased due to the demand side raised and the gap in supply and reduced production prospects in Ukraine because of the war. Moreover, India accounts for more than 25% of total food grain production, and Wheat is cultivated during the rabi season, which is affected due to scorching heat. Later in the second half of Q2, the price was increased due to delayed sowing in India backed by heat waves and the early arrival of summer with elevated temperature, which resulted in dehydration of wheat crops, overall impacting the yields in the major cultivating regions. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 367/MT Ex-Indore (India) in June 2022.
In Europe, Wheat's price fluctuated due to instability in the market sentiments. In the first half of Q2, the price decreased due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, due to which the routes for export were closed, which led to the decrease in the price in the domestic market. Later in the second half of Q2, the price was avidly increased due to disruptions in agricultural potency impacted by war. There was a sharp reduction in the Wheat crop harvesting area and low yield with high overall demand fundamentals, resulting in the Wheat market price hike. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 415/MT FOB Odesa (Ukraine) in June 2022.
In North America, the prices of wheat remained on the upper side due to various factors stemming from unfavorable climatic condition, Russia Ukraine war crisis etc. In the beginning of the Q1 2022, the prices slightly fluctuated due to poor climate condition with extreme heat and dryness. With the end of first half, the prices fell owing to adequate rainfall and good harvest. On the onset of second half, the prices surged gradually owning to Russia-Ukraine war crisis stalling the wheat shipment due to suspended major ports of Ukraine, which is one of the vital growing areas. With soaring insurance and freight cost the Russian trade market was also stifled creating pressure on the alternative countries to export. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be USD 438/ton FOB Vancouver (Canada).
In Asia-Pacific region, the prices of wheat increased in the Q1 2022 owing to Russia Ukraine invasion and poor weather condition. At the onset of Q1, the prices slipped down slightly as a consequence of favorable weather and good harvest. With higher inventories the supply demand market was running normal. At the end of first half, the prices rose significantly led by Russia Ukraine war crisis. As the situation got worse the major exporting nation Russia and Ukraine halted the production units building up pressure on the other countries to export wheat with the surging demand, globally. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be INR 22500/ton Ex-Indore (India).
In Europe, the prices of wheat hovered on the upper side owing to varying factors likely labor shortage, Russia Ukraine invasion etc. During the commencement of Q1 the prices slipped as the demand supply market was normal with strong export market. The prices surged sharply towards Q1 2022 termination with unprecedented supply shock to global consumers. Russia and Ukraine, world’s major vital growing areas are facing stifled supply due to war crisis owing to production halt in Ukraine, labor scarcity, shipment disruption. Also, the resurgence of pandemic resulted in increased freight charges. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be USD 410/ton FOB Odessa (Ukraine).