For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Wheat Price Index fell by 0.89% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest market easing.
• The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 222.33/MT, supported by export enquiries.
• Wheat Spot Price movement reflected delayed harvests and stronger export interest, tightening nearby availability overall
• Wheat Price Forecast through September shows modest firmness before seasonal easing driven by harvest supplies
• Wheat Production Cost Trend remained elevated due to higher input and logistics costs, cushioning pricing
• Wheat Demand Outlook improved with strong export bookings and competitive US offers attracting regional buyers
• Elevated domestic stocks and Black Sea competition influenced the Wheat Price Index, pressuring FOB offers
• Harvest progress improvements and logistical efficiencies likely eased spot availability, moderating seasonal premium for sellers
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in North America?
• Delayed harvests and reduced domestic production forecasts tightened supplies, increasing export competition and price pressure.
• Elevated input costs and higher logistics sustained production cost pressures, limiting sellers' willingness to discount.
• Stronger buying, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting Black Sea competitiveness accelerated procurement, supporting firmer export offers.
APAC
• In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 2.64% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample procurement and elevated stocks.
• The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 285.14/MT, supported by government procurement programmes and subdued export activity.
• Wheat Spot Price strength was limited despite seasonal buying, while the Wheat Price Index reflected inventory-driven softness.
• Wheat Price Forecast shows modest volatility ahead; Wheat Demand Outlook steady amid festival demand and controlled export policy.
• Wheat Production Cost Trend remained muted as input costs stabilized, reducing immediate upward pressure on mandi prices.
• Elevated government inventories and export restrictions constrained trade flows, influencing mandi liquidity and regional wholesale price behaviour.
• Robust procurement by FCI tightened market availability, while processors' pre-festive buying temporarily supported mandi-level prices.
• Monsoon-related transport disruptions and planned FCI releases will drive short-term Wheat Price Index fluctuations and uncertainty.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Elevated procurement and record stocks increased domestic supply, reducing spot scarcity and depressing mandi-level Price Index.
• Export ban and restricted cross-border flows limited external demand, shifting consumption domestically and moderating export-driven premiums.
• Improved harvest expectations and stabilized input costs reduced procurement urgency, while logistics issues intermittently tightened spot availability.
Europe
• In Russia, the Wheat Price Index fell by 3.04% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker export demand abroad during Q3.
• The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.67/MT, FOB Novorossiysk, export realizations volatile.
• Wheat Spot Price strengthened as front-loaded exports responded to duty changes, tightening available exportable supplies in ports.
• Wheat Price Forecast points to autumn gains driven by constrained southern yields and firmer demand near term.
• Wheat Production Cost Trend shows harvesting and logistics expenses pressuring exporter offers despite ample output elevating FOB.
• Wheat Demand Outlook uncertain as front-loading by Turkey and Egypt offsets softer global cereal demand short term.
• Wheat Price Index volatility rose when geopolitical stabilization removed risk premia and exporters adjusted offers.
• Inventories tightened, port logistics delays constrained shipments, and competitive Ukraine offers pressured Russian FOB competitiveness.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Front-loaded exports before duty hikes tightened supply, raising short-term export prices and shifting FOB dynamics.
• Improved national harvest forecasts eased domestic shortages, reducing seasonal buying and moderating price pressure somewhat.
• Logistic constraints and elevated harvesting costs increased seller offers, while weaker global demand limited upside.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index for Wheat in the United States saw a reversal in July 2025, declining from the June level of USD 225/MT amid shifting market fundamentals and improved supply visibility.
• Spot Price correction was triggered by improved weather across key Midwest regions, including Kansas and North Dakota, which supported better yield expectations and minimized prior concerns over spring wheat stress.
• July 2025 marked a cooling in momentum after June’s sharp rally. Lower export volumes and a slowdown in foreign bookings weighed on procurement sentiment, particularly as buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach following a volatile June.
• Production Cost Trend showed slight easing due to stable fertilizer and fuel costs in July, contrasting with the inflation-driven spikes seen earlier. This, combined with better logistical fluidity post-harvest, reduced overhead pressure on millers and traders.
• Demand Outlook weakened modestly in July due to softening export inquiries from Southeast Asia and North Africa, which previously surged amid geopolitical disruptions. Domestic demand remained steady, but not strong enough to sustain prior pricing levels.
• Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
• The price of wheat in the U.S. declined in July 2025 due to easing supply-side concerns as favorable weather improved yield expectations. Slower export demand and stabilized input costs further pressured prices downward.
Europe
• In June 2025, the Wheat FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) Price Index dropped sharply by 8.13%, settling at USD 226/MT, as ample domestic harvest expectations and low export volumes weakened market fundamentals.
• The Spot Price correction reflected mounting pressure from increased competition with Ukraine and the EU, alongside declining forage wheat consumption in the domestic livestock sector.
• The Price Forecast for July had indicated mild recovery, driven by stabilizing trade flows and short-term restocking by traditional importers.
• The Production Cost Trend remained largely unchanged due to steady input prices, although the removal of the export tax slightly improved margins for traders.
• The Demand Outlook deteriorated through June as Russia’s domestic grain usage fell to 83.2 million tonnes, with export shipments shrinking to 1.7 million tonnes, the lowest in the 2024–25 season.
• Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
• Wheat FOB Novorossiysk prices saw a moderate uptick in July 2025 due to reduced selling pressure from Russian exporters, tighter freight availability, and renewed demand from North African and Middle Eastern importers, improving trade sentiment after a weak June.
• Domestic inventory accumulation and lack of competitiveness against cheaper European-origin wheat added to the bearish sentiment, especially as Turkey and Egypt diversified sourcing.
• In July 2025, Wheat FOB Novorossiysk Spot Prices showed a moderate uptick, supported by tightening freight availability, gradual exporter re-entry into the market, and marginal rebound in North African buying interest.
APAC
• Price Index for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) softened in July 2025, reversing the marginal upward trend seen in June as procurement slowed and buyer activity declined.
• Spot Price of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) dropped to USD 282/MT in July from USD 288/MT in June, reflecting a month-on-month decrease.
• Price Forecast for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) suggests continued mild softness in August 2025, driven by subdued open market demand, adequate buffer stocks, and no change in export restrictions.
• Production Cost Trend for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained largely unchanged as harvest activities concluded by June; procurement costs normalized post-peak season.
• Demand Outlook for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) weakened in July 2025 as buyers refrained from large-volume purchases due to sufficient supply availability from government-held stocks and subdued speculative activity.
• Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
• Prices of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) declined in July due to a drop in private sector demand post-harvest, ample availability of procured stock held by the Food Corporation of India, and the continuation of the export ban which limited international offtake.
• Inventory dynamics for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained favorable, with government reserves at 36.9 million tons as of June ensuring no short-term supply disruptions.
• Regional cues for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) include the Indian government’s formal WTO notification confirming extension of wheat export restrictions, which stabilized domestic food security but removed any price support from overseas demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. wheat market experienced notable price fluctuations shaped by shifting global dynamics and domestic supply-demand trends. January began with a slight price decline, largely driven by weak international demand and heightened competition from alternative suppliers. A stronger dollar and volatile freight rates further discouraged exports, while rising winter wheat acreage and stable domestic production tempered market sentiment. Export activity remained limited as buyers engaged in minimal, need-based purchases.
February saw a sharp reversal, with wheat prices rising significantly due to tightening global supply conditions. Concerns over adverse weather in Europe, Russia, and parts of the U.S., coupled with Russia’s wheat export quota, tightened global availability and boosted demand for American wheat. The USDA also reported a 24 percent drop in soft red winter wheat output, further constraining supply. Procurement by the Food for Progress program added additional strain, leading to intensified upward price pressure.
However, in March, the market shifted once again, with prices falling amid global market weakness and improving crop prospects. The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 2.6 percent, reflecting a broader drop in international grain prices. Favorable U.S. weather and strong yield expectations softened the market, while reduced demand from major buyers like China and uncertainties over trade tariffs kept trading activity subdued. Overall, Q1 2025 closed with a bearish tone despite earlier bullish momentum.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, the Indian wheat market displayed significant price volatility, beginning with record highs in January followed by a brief dip in February, and ending with a strong rebound in March. January’s rally was driven by tight market supplies and vigorous demand from flour mills. Prices surged well beyond the minimum support price despite government-imposed stockholding limits, raising concerns over food inflation. The government responded with a long-term infrastructure investment plan to boost storage capacity, while wheat acreage hit an all-time high amid favorable winter rainfall in key northern states.
February saw a temporary easing of prices as increased cultivation and a ban on exports ensured stable domestic availability. Record-high production estimates and government-mandated stock limits further discouraged speculative activity. Meanwhile, demand was subdued due to restrained offtake by the milling and packaged food sectors and signs of cooling industrial activity, which softened market sentiment.
By March, prices rebounded sharply. Aggressive government procurement—over 8 million tonnes toward a 31 million tonne target—tightened open market supplies. Additional bonuses in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan prompted farmers to prioritize public channels, reducing private sector access. Weather uncertainties, especially unseasonal heat threatening yields, introduced a risk premium. Simultaneously, improving rural distribution and a slight economic upturn supported rising demand. These converging supply constraints and robust end-user consumption sustained bullish momentum in India’s wheat market by the end of the quarter.
Europe
Throughout Q1 2025, the European wheat market experienced heightened volatility, largely shaped by sharp price increases in Russian wheat and evolving global trade patterns. In January, Russian wheat prices surged to multi-month highs due to adverse weather, lower production, and policy measures such as export quotas and variable taxes. This led to a sharp 50 percent year-on-year decline in Russian exports. Despite a notable 25–30 percent drop in freight rates, rising FOB prices offset cost savings, prompting European buyers to diversify sources, increasingly turning to Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and Southeast Europe. These developments underscored tightening supply and persistent uncertainty in the regional wheat market.
February brought continued price escalation, fueled by Russia’s implementation of a 10.6 million-ton wheat export quota. As Russian export volumes shrank and weather-related concerns intensified across Europe, global buyers aggressively sought alternative suppliers. This sustained upward momentum in European wheat prices, even as exporters faced narrowing profit margins due to rising operational costs and limited capacity.
In March, the trend persisted. Russian wheat exports plummeted nearly 65 percent year over year, reducing regional availability and sustaining price pressure. The number of active Russian exporters and terminals also fell significantly, compounding supply issues. Despite slight easing in global wheat prices, domestic inflation and logistical constraints kept European wheat markets elevated and competitive. Q1 concluded with firm market sentiment amid constrained supply and shifting trade flows.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, U.S. wheat export prices exhibited a mixed trajectory, influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors. While prices initially remained elevated due to tight global supply conditions, driven by adverse weather in key wheat-producing regions and historically low inventory levels, a gradual downward trend emerged by December. Favorable global harvests, particularly in Argentina and Australia, along with competitive export offerings from Russia, exerted downward pressure on U.S. wheat prices.
Geopolitical developments, including the reopening of export routes from Ukraine, further intensified competition, limiting U.S. export competitiveness. Domestic market activity reflected subdued trading sentiments as buyers operated on a need-based approach, exacerbated by sluggish demand from major importing regions such as Asia and Africa. Broader economic headwinds, including persistent inflation, high interest rates, and reduced global wheat consumption, compounded the downward price pressure.
The December 2024 FAO Cereal Price Index showed stability, with U.S. wheat prices largely subdued despite robust export forecasts for the 2024/25 season. Contractionary trends in U.S. manufacturing, evidenced by a PMI drop to 49.4 in December, added to the cautious market outlook, with weaker export orders and lower capacity utilization impacting broader economic activity. Overall, the U.S. wheat market faced significant challenges in maintaining momentum amid global competition, soft demand, and economic constraints throughout quarter four.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, the Indian wheat market experienced dynamic fluctuations shaped by supply constraints, government interventions, and shifting demand patterns. October saw escalating wheat prices driven by reduced domestic availability due to lower-than-expected production caused by adverse weather and a curtailed procurement season earlier in the year. The festive season amplified demand for wheat-based products, exacerbating the supply crunch and inflationary pressures. In response, the government retained export restrictions and explored tariff relaxations for imports, although high global prices and logistical challenges limited their efficacy. By November, wheat prices reached record highs as supply tightened further due to unseasonal rains, decreased acreage, and increased input costs. Robust export demand and speculative trading intensified the scarcity, prompting traders to stockpile and inflate prices. However, by December, prices began to stabilize, showing a marginal decline due to ample domestic stockpiles bolstered by government procurement efforts and weaker export demand. Subdued consumption, influenced by inflationary pressures and declining global wheat prices, contributed to this stabilization. As a result, overall, the market's trajectory highlighted the interplay between domestic supply-demand dynamics, global trade factors, and the impact of government policies on price trends, setting the stage for potential adjustments in early 2025.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, wheat export dynamics in Russia demonstrated significant volatility due to a combination of restrictive government policies, adverse weather conditions, and global market disruptions. October witnessed a sharp rise in export prices, driven by the implementation of a price floor, increased export duties, and unfavorable weather impacting wheat yields. These measures, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, tightened supply availability and elevated logistical risks, underscoring Russia's critical role in global wheat trade. Conversely, November saw a notable decline in export prices, reflecting increased competition from other major exporters like Argentina and Australia, lower regional and overseas quotations and weekend demand arriving from end-user livestock and other sectors. However, this bearish trend was short-lived as December marked another price hike due to poor winter crop conditions, with 37% of the crop in its worst state in decades, raising concerns over yield and survival rates. Government interventions, including tighter export quotas, higher taxes, and mandated domestic sales, further constrained international supply. While European exporters struggled with high costs and declining export volumes, Russia maintained its competitive edge, sustaining higher prices despite global challenges. The outlook for MY 2025-26 hinges on critical factors such as winter crop survival, spring planting, and overall weather conditions, leaving the market sensitive to production and policy developments.
