For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Wheat Prices in APAC
- In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 3.53% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting rabi arrivals and open-market sales.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 274.76/MT, reflecting subdued buying from domestic mills.
- Wheat Spot Price eased as mandi arrivals rose, pressuring the Wheat Price Index, limiting upside.
- Wheat Price Forecast shows modest recovery this quarter as procurement and seasonal restocking tighten availability.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend stayed muted as diesel and fertilizer prices remained broadly unchanged, containing pressure.
- Wheat Demand Outlook remains balanced as flour mill offtake is steady while exports remain blocked.
- Domestic inventories and Food Corporation open-market releases weighed on the Wheat Price Index in March.
- Wheat Spot Price volatility remained subdued as rail and road logistics operated normally, supporting distribution.
- Wheat Price Forecast signals downward bias pre-restocking, with traders likely liquidating inventories into weak demand.
Why did the price of Wheat change in March 2026 in APAC?
- Early rabi harvest arrivals swelled mandi volumes, increasing spot availability and easing upward price pressure.
- The government open-market releases from central stocks supplied mills, reducing private buying and limiting speculative accumulation.
- Competitive Black Sea offers a widened import-parity gap, removing coastal arbitrage and keeping the domestic market bearish.
Wheat Prices in Europe
- In Russia, the Wheat Price Index rose by 1.74% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger export demand growth.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.33/MT, reflecting modest monthly movements.
- Wheat Spot Price strength reflected accelerated Black Sea loadings and buyer interest from North Africa.
- Wheat Price Forecast shows upside as tender activity and disciplined exporters defend prompt FOB values.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend subdued because subsidized diesel and low fertilizer prices contained farmgate expenses.
- Wheat Demand Outlook indicates export appetite from Egypt, Turkey, and Algeria, supporting the regional Price Index.
- Wheat Price Index volatility remained limited by ample inventories and loading schedules at Novorossiysk terminals.
- Wheat Price Forecast sensitive to freight and insurance costs, with geopolitical risks influencing shipment economics.
Why did the price of Wheat change in March 2026 in Europe?
- Increased export demand from the Middle East and North Africa absorbed higher loadings, tightening nearby availability modestly.
- Port loading improved after ice eased, accelerating shipments, prompting firmer export offers, supporting Price Index gains.
- Subsidized diesel and low fertilizer costs compressed production cost pressures, enabling sellers to sustain competitive FOBs.
Wheat Prices in North America
- In the USA, the Wheat Price Index rose by 4.58% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger inland-to-coast basis support.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 243.67/MT, reflecting export and basis.
- Export demand supported the Wheat Spot Price despite subdued international buying and heavy global stocks.
- Analysts cite Wheat Price Forecast uncertainty as geopolitical fuel, and logistics risks elevate delivered cost expectations.
- Rising fertilizer and shipping expenses underpin the Wheat Production Cost Trend, pressuring farmers' selling prices.
- Domestic milling stability bolsters Wheat Demand Outlook even as feed substitution and foreign bookings persist.
- Inventory levels and river logistics affected the Wheat Price Index, moderating yet not reversing momentum.
- Exporters maintained firm offers while port loadings and seasonal dynamics guided nearby Wheat Price movement.
Why did the price of Wheat change in March 2026 in North America?
- Fertilizer supply risks increased production cost expectations, lifting seller reserve prices ahead of planting season.
- Stable domestic milling demand offset softer exports, supporting basis and preventing steeper cash price declines.
- Shipping insurance and potential Hormuz disruptions raised logistics costs, prompting exporters to widen FOB premiums.
For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
- In USA, the Wheat Price Index rose by 4.80% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger export demand tightness.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.00/MT, reported in monthly survey.
- Wheat Spot Price eased in December as ample inventories pressured cash bids across US ports.
- Wheat Price Forecast anticipates modest near-term weakness followed by selective recovery driven by seasonal restocking.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend reflects impact of locked fertilizer and steady diesel on farmer sales.
- Wheat Demand Outlook firmed mid-quarter as Asian and North African inquiries tightened balances and basis.
- Wheat Price Index movement reflected Black Sea competitiveness, river draft limits and elevated rail freight.
- Wheat Spot Price remained muted as exporters trimmed offers to clear stocks before spring selling.
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in North America?
- Post-harvest inventories across the Plains increased, lowering urgency and pressuring cash bids and nearby premiums.
- Muted overseas buying favored cheaper Black Sea origins, weakening US export demand, trimming FOB offers.
- Logistics functioned smoothly with no material disruptions, enabling normal shipments and limiting localized premium spikes.
APAC
- In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 0.11% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting broadly mild market correction.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 284.82/MT, supported by miller purchases.
- Wheat Spot Price in Bareilly firmed on thinner arrivals and miller procurement ahead seasonal festivals
- Wheat Price Forecast indicates modest upside into early 2026 driven by pre-planting restocking and procurement.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend elevated; firm diesel and fertilizer prices supported farmers further withholding stocks
- Wheat Demand Outlook remained stable with routine mill consumption and government welfare purchases sustaining absorption.
- Wheat Price Index benefited from export restrictions keeping surplus onshore, limiting downside for mandi quotations.
- Rail logistics remained efficient and warehouses held comfortable stocks, moderating spikes in Wheat Price Index
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in APAC?
- Thinner market arrivals and farmers withholding stock after MSP increase tightened spot availability in December.
- Firm diesel and fertilizer costs raised production cost pressures, reducing farmer incentive to sell frequently.
- Limited export outlets due to embargo trapped volumes domestically, with procurement absorbing most supplies locally.
Europe
- In Russia, the Wheat Price Index fell by 1.85% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting large harvest and restrained export demand.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was USD 229.33/MT based on export quotations and port loadings.
- Wheat Spot Price at Novorossiysk softened as heavy stocks and routine shipments limited upward momentum.
- Wheat Price Forecast signals recovery risks after holidays driven by tender activity and seasonal restocking.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend declined with subsidised diesel and lower fertilizer supporting competitive FOB offers.
- Wheat Demand Outlook adequate from Egypt and Turkey, but global origin competition limits immediate purchases.
- Wheat Price Index showed muted volatility as improved port throughput offset elevated on-farm inventories levels.
- Exporters exercised pricing discipline while rail and terminal operations functioned normally, preventing abrupt FOB swings.
Why did the price of Wheat change in December 2025 in Europe?
- Ample harvest and large carryover stocks reduced urgency, exerting mild downward pressure on export quotations.
- Subsidized diesel and fertilizer costs eased production expenses, enabling competitive FOB pricing and exporter flexibility.
- Improved port throughput and stable floating duty supported steady shipments while cautious buyers deferred bookings.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
- In the USA, the Wheat Price Index fell by 0.89% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting modest market easing.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 222.33/MT, supported by export enquiries.
- Wheat Spot Price movement reflected delayed harvests and stronger export interest, tightening nearby availability overall
- Wheat Price Forecast through September shows modest firmness before seasonal easing driven by harvest supplies
- Wheat Production Cost Trend remained elevated due to higher input and logistics costs, cushioning pricing
- Wheat Demand Outlook improved with strong export bookings and competitive US offers attracting regional buyers
- Elevated domestic stocks and Black Sea competition influenced the Wheat Price Index, pressuring FOB offers
- Harvest progress improvements and logistical efficiencies likely eased spot availability, moderating seasonal premium for sellers
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in North America?
- Delayed harvests and reduced domestic production forecasts tightened supplies, increasing export competition and price pressure.
- Elevated input costs and higher logistics sustained production cost pressures, limiting sellers' willingness to discount.
- Stronger buying, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting Black Sea competitiveness accelerated procurement, supporting firmer export offers.
APAC
- In India, the Wheat Price Index fell by 2.64% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample procurement and elevated stocks.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 285.14/MT, supported by government procurement programmes and subdued export activity.
- Wheat Spot Price strength was limited despite seasonal buying, while the Wheat Price Index reflected inventory-driven softness.
- Wheat Price Forecast shows modest volatility ahead; Wheat Demand Outlook steady amid festival demand and controlled export policy.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend remained muted as input costs stabilized, reducing immediate upward pressure on mandi prices.
- Elevated government inventories and export restrictions constrained trade flows, influencing mandi liquidity and regional wholesale price behaviour.
- Robust procurement by FCI tightened market availability, while processors' pre-festive buying temporarily supported mandi-level prices.
- Monsoon-related transport disruptions and planned FCI releases will drive short-term Wheat Price Index fluctuations and uncertainty.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in APAC?
- Elevated procurement and record stocks increased domestic supply, reducing spot scarcity and depressing mandi-level Price Index.
- Export ban and restricted cross-border flows limited external demand, shifting consumption domestically and moderating export-driven premiums.
- Improved harvest expectations and stabilized input costs reduced procurement urgency, while logistics issues intermittently tightened spot availability.
Europe
- In Russia, the Wheat Price Index fell by 3.04% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker export demand abroad during Q3.
- The average Wheat price for the quarter was approximately USD 233.67/MT, FOB Novorossiysk, export realizations volatile.
- Wheat Spot Price strengthened as front-loaded exports responded to duty changes, tightening available exportable supplies in ports.
- Wheat Price Forecast points to autumn gains driven by constrained southern yields and firmer demand near term.
- Wheat Production Cost Trend shows harvesting and logistics expenses pressuring exporter offers despite ample output elevating FOB.
- Wheat Demand Outlook uncertain as front-loading by Turkey and Egypt offsets softer global cereal demand short term.
- Wheat Price Index volatility rose when geopolitical stabilization removed risk premia and exporters adjusted offers.
- Inventories tightened, port logistics delays constrained shipments, and competitive Ukraine offers pressured Russian FOB competitiveness.
Why did the price of Wheat change in September 2025 in Europe?
- Front-loaded exports before duty hikes tightened supply, raising short-term export prices and shifting FOB dynamics.
- Improved national harvest forecasts eased domestic shortages, reducing seasonal buying and moderating price pressure somewhat.
- Logistic constraints and elevated harvesting costs increased seller offers, while weaker global demand limited upside.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
- The Price Index for Wheat in the United States saw a reversal in July 2025, declining from the June level of USD 225/MT amid shifting market fundamentals and improved supply visibility.
- Spot Price correction was triggered by improved weather across key Midwest regions, including Kansas and North Dakota, which supported better yield expectations and minimized prior concerns over spring wheat stress.
- July 2025 marked a cooling in momentum after June’s sharp rally. Lower export volumes and a slowdown in foreign bookings weighed on procurement sentiment, particularly as buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach following a volatile June.
- Production Cost Trend showed slight easing due to stable fertilizer and fuel costs in July, contrasting with the inflation-driven spikes seen earlier. This, combined with better logistical fluidity post-harvest, reduced overhead pressure on millers and traders.
- Demand Outlook weakened modestly in July due to softening export inquiries from Southeast Asia and North Africa, which previously surged amid geopolitical disruptions. Domestic demand remained steady, but not strong enough to sustain prior pricing levels.
Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
- The price of wheat in the U.S. declined in July 2025 due to easing supply-side concerns as favorable weather improved yield expectations. Slower export demand and stabilized input costs further pressured prices downward.
Europe
- In June 2025, the Wheat FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) Price Index dropped sharply by 8.13%, settling at USD 226/MT, as ample domestic harvest expectations and low export volumes weakened market fundamentals.
- The Spot Price correction reflected mounting pressure from increased competition with Ukraine and the EU, alongside declining forage wheat consumption in the domestic livestock sector.
- The Price Forecast for July had indicated mild recovery, driven by stabilizing trade flows and short-term restocking by traditional importers.
- The Production Cost Trend remained largely unchanged due to steady input prices, although the removal of the export tax slightly improved margins for traders.
- The Demand Outlook deteriorated through June as Russia’s domestic grain usage fell to 83.2 million tonnes, with export shipments shrinking to 1.7 million tonnes, the lowest in the 2024–25 season.
Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
- Wheat FOB Novorossiysk prices saw a moderate uptick in July 2025 due to reduced selling pressure from Russian exporters, tighter freight availability, and renewed demand from North African and Middle Eastern importers, improving trade sentiment after a weak June.
- Domestic inventory accumulation and lack of competitiveness against cheaper European-origin wheat added to the bearish sentiment, especially as Turkey and Egypt diversified sourcing.
- In July 2025, Wheat FOB Novorossiysk Spot Prices showed a moderate uptick, supported by tightening freight availability, gradual exporter re-entry into the market, and marginal rebound in North African buying interest.
APAC
- Price Index for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) softened in July 2025, reversing the marginal upward trend seen in June as procurement slowed and buyer activity declined.
- Spot Price of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) dropped to USD 282/MT in July from USD 288/MT in June, reflecting a month-on-month decrease.
- Price Forecast for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) suggests continued mild softness in August 2025, driven by subdued open market demand, adequate buffer stocks, and no change in export restrictions.
- Production Cost Trend for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained largely unchanged as harvest activities concluded by June; procurement costs normalized post-peak season.
- Demand Outlook for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) weakened in July 2025 as buyers refrained from large-volume purchases due to sufficient supply availability from government-held stocks and subdued speculative activity.
Why did the price of Wheat change in July 2025?
- Prices of Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) declined in July due to a drop in private sector demand post-harvest, ample availability of procured stock held by the Food Corporation of India, and the continuation of the export ban which limited international offtake.
- Inventory dynamics for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) remained favorable, with government reserves at 36.9 million tons as of June ensuring no short-term supply disruptions.
- Regional cues for Wheat Ex Bareilly (India) include the Indian government’s formal WTO notification confirming extension of wheat export restrictions, which stabilized domestic food security but removed any price support from overseas demand.
