For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In United States, the Wheat Flour Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by rising input costs.
• Wheat Flour production costs increased, with Producer Price Index rising 2.6% year-over-year in August 2025.
• Natural gas prices for the US experienced an overall year-over-year uptick in Q3 2025, impacting production.
• Demand for Wheat Flour was supported by a 5.42% year-over-year increase in retail sales in September 2025.
• Consumer purchasing power was affected by a 3.0% year-over-year CPI increase in September 2025.
• The 4.3% unemployment rate in September 2025 sustained consumer income, underpinning food consumption.
• Industrial production grew modestly by 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, indicating limited industrial demand.
• Weaker flour milling in August 2025 and declining consumer confidence in September 2025 tempered some demand.
• US wheat exports are forecast to rebound and strengthen in Q3 2025, reaching a multi-year high.
Why did the price of Wheat Flour change in September 2025 in North America?
• Producer Price Index rose 2.6% in August 2025, increasing production costs.
• Retail sales increased 5.42% in September 2025, boosting demand for flour-based goods.
• Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% in September 2025, reflecting inflation impacting spending.
APAC
• China's Wheat Flour Price Index fell in Q3 2025, driven by declining producer prices and ample domestic grain inventories.
• Production costs were influenced by elevated global fertilizer prices in Q3 2025, despite government agricultural input incentives.
• Demand for Wheat Flour was supported by a 3.0% increase in retail sales year-on-year in September 2025.
• The Manufacturing Index contracted in September 2025, alongside a 5.2% unemployment rate, impacting consumer demand.
• China's industrial production expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indirectly bolstering consumer income.
• Domestic wheat inventories remained ample in July 2025, with robust grain stockpiles in September 2025.
• Wheat imports to China increased significantly in September 2025, contributing to robust supply and higher overall imports.
• Consumer confidence at 89.6 in September 2025, coupled with a 0.3% CPI decrease, suggested cautious consumer spending.
Why did the price of Wheat Flour change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Producer Price Index declined 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, reducing flour mill input costs.
• Ample domestic wheat inventories and increased imports in September 2025 ensured robust supply.
• Weak consumer confidence and 0.3% year-on-year CPI decrease in September 2025 pressured demand.
Europe
• In Germany, the Wheat Flour Price Index fell in Q3 2025, due to lower production costs and contracting industrial activity.
• Wheat Flour production costs decreased in Q3 2025, influenced by a 1.7% PPI decline in September 2025 and moderated natural gas prices.
• Demand for Wheat Flour faced headwinds from a contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025, indicating weaker industrial activity.
• Industrial Production decreased by 1.0% in September 2025, negatively impacting Wheat Flour consumption in manufacturing sectors.
• Retail sales rose by 0.2% in September 2025, offering slight support for household and commercial Wheat Flour demand.
• The Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% in September 2025, contributing to higher overall operational costs for Wheat Flour producers.
• Wheat feedstock availability surged in Q3 2025 due to a significantly increased harvest, easing supply pressures for Wheat Flour.
• EU grain ending stocks are projected to return to comfortable levels in Marketing Year 2025/26, supporting Wheat Flour supply.
Why did the price of Wheat Flour change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Lower energy costs, with PPI down 1.7% in September 2025, reduced Wheat Flour production expenses.
• Increased wheat harvest in Q3 2025 boosted feedstock availability, easing Wheat Flour supply pressures.
• Contracting Manufacturing Index in Q3 2025 and lower industrial production dampened Wheat Flour demand.
