For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the White Oil Price Index fell by 3.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply, muted buying.
• The average White Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1198.67/MT based on CFR totals.
• White Oil Spot Price remained range-bound as distributors held inventories and imports kept offers broadly competitive.
• Near-term White Oil Price Forecast signals modest volatility with flat-to-mild declines through early Q1 driven by demand patterns.
• Observed White Oil Production Cost Trend reflects lower crude inputs, limiting upward pressure on refinery-derived paraffinic feedstocks.
• White Oil Demand Outlook remains conservative as personal care formulators prefer need-based procurement ahead of seasonal product launches.
• The White Oil Price Index showed subdued movement, anchored by ample inventories and steady refinery operating rates.
• Export inquiries provided intermittent support, while downstream restocking remained limited, tempering any sustained contractual tightening.
Why did the price of White Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
• Ample domestic refinery output and rising commercial crude stocks ensured adequate feedstock, reducing upward price pressure.
• Cautious downstream procurement amid trade uncertainty limited restocking, keeping spot demand muted despite seasonal ordering.
• Logistics and freight costs remained manageable, allowing imports to compete effectively, supporting balanced supply dynamics.
APAC
• In China, the White Oil Price Index fell by 4.62% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting subdued demand and ample seaborne inflows.
• The average White Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 860.33/MT, reflecting reported shipments and ample inventory.
• White Oil Spot Price remained range bound amid ample coastal stocks and steady domestic refinery utilization rates.
• White Oil Price Forecast anticipates modest recovery as pre-Lunar New Year restocking supports incremental demand and offers.
• White Oil Production Cost Trend was softened by lower crude-derived feedstock prices, easing upward pressure on spot offers.
• White Oil Demand Outlook remained muted with automotive pockets providing support while industrial blending tapered into winter.
• White Oil Price Index volatility was limited by balanced supply logistics and consistent seaborne imports keeping prompt availability ample.
• White Oil Spot Price movements reflected cautious converter procurement and neutral inventory adjustments across coastal terminals.
Why did the price of White Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Seaborne inflows increased, keeping domestic availability ample and pressuring spot premiums downward amid limited incremental export demand.
• Crude oil eased, reducing feedstock costs and relieving production cost pressures for refiners and hydrofinishers.
• Demand softened seasonally with reduced industrial blending and cautious converter procurement ahead of year-end holidays.
Europe
• In Germany, the White Oil Price Index fell quarter-over-quarter, reflecting subdued demand from key downstream sectors and balanced supply.
• White Oil Spot Price showed limited momentum as personal care, pharmaceutical, and plastics formulators reduced spot procurement amid cautious year-end buying.
• White Oil Price Forecast indicates modest near-term stability with potential upside from seasonal restocking in personal care and pharmaceutical applications.
• White Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable due to steady base oil feedstock prices, supporting refinery margins.
• White Oil Demand Outlook is subdued as downstream sectors maintained conservative inventory strategies in light of macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory compliance pressures.
• White Oil Price Index movements were constrained by consistent supply, stable imports, and conservative buyer activity.
• Distributor and terminal stock accumulation pressured offers, while refiners-maintained output without operational disruptions.
Why did the price of White Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Soft end-use demand from personal care, pharmaceutical, and plastics sectors reduced buying pressure, driving a modest decline in the White Oil Price Index.
• Stable feedstock prices limited upward cost pressures, allowing refiners to ease offers without margin stress.
• Year-end cautious procurement and ample inventory at distributors softened transactional urgency, suppressing spot price momentum.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the White Oil Price Index fell by 8.18% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting bearish market conditions.
• The average White Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1238 per metric ton.
• White Oil Spot Price eased as downstream demand remained soft and inventory levels stayed elevated.
• White Oil Price Forecast remains cautious due to balanced supply and muted consumer demand conditions.
• White Oil Production Cost Trend is largely influenced by flat crude inputs and stable refining margins.
• White Oil Demand Outlook remains steady in cosmetics and pharma, with no pronounced seasonal upswings.
• Price Index for White Oil reflects a net quarterly softening amid post-June inventory clearance activities.
• Market liquidity and hurricane season risk provided upside caps on the Price Index despite some price tickups.
• Export and local cosmetic demand dynamics frame the Price Index, with stable imports supporting price stability.
Why did the price of White Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Seasonal moderation in cosmetics and pharma demand in North America reduced buying urgency, softening White Oil price Index.
• Logistics and freight costs improved modestly, easing landed costs and limiting downside price pressure during September.
• End-user inventory drawdown and competitive imports kept spot offers under pressure, affecting the Price Index.
APAC
• In China, the White Oil Price Index fell by 10.7% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and weak demand in Q3 2025.
• The average White Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 902/MT, reflecting mid-cycle softness.
• White Oil Spot Price trends showed volatility across the quarter, with notable declines during mid-Q3.
• White Oil Price Forecast remained cautious amid soft Demand Outlook and ample regional supply conditions.
• White Oil Production Cost Trend eased slightly as feedstock availability provided cost relief and margins persisted.
• White Oil Demand Outlook remained subdued due to lubricant sector softness, plastics processing and seasonal inventory reductions.
• White Oil Price Index movements mirrored domestic oversupply, robust stock coverage, and tepid export inquiries.
• Supply and logistics factors kept spot trading restrained, delaying meaningful restocking and limiting price recovery.
• Market participants maintained cautious stance, with buyers prioritizing hand-to-mouth intake over aggressive restocking activity throughout.
Why did the price of White Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Supply remained ample with high refinery runs and inventories, easing price pressure amid steady downstream demand softness.
• Cost pressures softened as feedstock availability supported cheaper input costs, limiting upside despite crude fluctuations.
• Logistics and seasonal restocking dynamics constrained spot trading, delaying restocking and contributing to continued price volatility.
Europe
• In Europe, the White Oil Price Index rose quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, supported by seasonal demand from personal care and pharmaceutical sectors.
• White Oil Spot Price movements remained firm, with downstream restocking and steady pharma-grade demand supporting a mild upward trajectory.
• White Oil Price Forecast signals mild upside risk in Q4 2025, especially in food-grade and cosmetic-grade segments due to holiday season demand.
• White Oil Production Cost Trend remained stable, with Group II and III base oil feedstocks showing minimal volatility and refining margins holding steady.
• White Oil Demand Outlook remains constructive, with personal care, pharma, and food processing sectors maintaining consistent procurement levels.
• The White Oil Price Index reflects seasonal buying patterns and inventory normalization across European distributors.
• Inventory levels across France, Germany, and Benelux remained balanced, supporting disciplined pricing and preventing bulk-buying spikes.
• Regulatory compliance in pharma and food sectors continues to support demand for high-purity white oil grades, influencing pricing strategies.
Why did the price of White Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Seasonal restocking by personal care and pharmaceutical manufacturers ahead of Q4 boosted demand, lifting the White Oil Price Index.
• Logistics normalization and improved refinery output supported timely deliveries, reducing supply-side constraints.
• Feedstock costs for base oils remained stable, but increased packaging and distribution costs contributed to a mild price uptick.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• White oil prices in North America declined by 5.8% QoQ in Q2 2025, as tepid downstream demand and easing logistics costs exerted continuous downward pressure on the market.
• Domestic refinery throughput remained stable, but inventory build-up—driven by weak demand—restricted any upward price momentum despite occasional feedstock cost increases.
• Supply chains saw improvement, with reduced freight rates from Asia lowering landed costs of imports, while domestic availability stayed adequate amid smooth refinery operations.
• Downstream demand from personal care and cosmetics industries stayed moderate, with manufacturers maintaining conservative purchasing strategies due to macroeconomic uncertainties and sluggish retail sales.
• Although occasional demand upticks occurred during seasonal peaks, they were insufficient to offset the persistent oversupply and soft consumption trends, keeping the market in a narrow, declining price range throughout the quarter.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in North America?
• White oil prices in North America witnessed a marginal decline in early July, driven by soft buying interest from the cosmetics sector, where end-users refrained from aggressive procurement due to ample existing inventories.
• Although crude oil feedstock prices moved higher, falling international freight rates made imported white oil more competitive, preventing any meaningful cost-push impact on final prices.
• Domestic refinery run rates saw minor adjustments, but the steady import availability ensured supply remained sufficient, limiting upward price adjustments.
• The combination of cautious demand, stable supply, and competitive import flows resulted in a modest price dip, with the market expected to remain under mild downward pressure unless downstream consumption rebounds.
Europe
• White oil prices in Europe declined QoQ in Q2 2025, as stagnant downstream demand and competitive imports from Asia exerted sustained downward pressure on domestic market valuations.
• European refiners maintained measured production rates, aligning output with tepid consumption trends across cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors to avoid inventory oversupply, despite stable upstream crude input availability.
• Demand from personal care and pharmaceutical sectors remained subdued, as macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced consumer spending discouraged restocking, with buyers maintaining lean inventory levels.
• The lubricant industry, a secondary consumer of white oil in industrial and specialty formulations, continued to show weak procurement patterns during Q2. Demand from metalworking fluids, textile lubricants, and pharmaceutical-grade lubricant applications remained subdued, reflecting broader industrial slowdown and cautious inventory strategies by manufacturers facing soft order volumes.
• Overall, the European white oil market faced a bearish pricing environment throughout Q2, as supply-side discipline was insufficient to counterbalance persistently weak demand fundamentals and intensified price competition from imports.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in Europe?
• White oil prices in Europe softened further in July, pressured by lacklustre downstream demand from the cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors, which continued to operate on minimal procurement strategies amid stagnant consumer sentiment.
• Despite stable domestic production, increased availability of competitively priced imports from Asian suppliers intensified price competition, forcing local producers to revise offers downward to maintain offtake volumes.
• Weak economic indicators and cautious purchasing behaviour among key end-user industries further limited transaction volumes, while high inventories from earlier stockpiling restricted new buying activity.
• With no notable supply disruptions or demand surges, market participants faced a structurally oversupplied scenario, leading to continued softness in white oil prices through July.
APAC
• White oil prices in APAC edged up by 0.6% QoQ in Q2 2025, as supply-side discipline and seasonal restocking in May offset weak demand fundamentals, resulting in a narrowly firm pricing environment.
• Domestic refineries across China operated at steady throughput levels, with manufacturers managing inventory cautiously amid volatile feedstock costs and persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
• Supply chains remained stable, with no major disruptions reported, while competitive import volumes from regional producers ensured sufficient market availability despite intermittent logistical inefficiencies.
• Downstream demand from lubricant and cosmetic sectors was inconsistent, with procurement driven by cautious, need-based strategies; seasonal restocking in May provided transient support but lacked sustainability.
• Overall, the APAC white oil market navigated Q2 with minimal volatility, as balanced supply conditions and sporadic demand upticks allowed prices to hold within a narrow range, though persistent demand-side fragility capped any robust bullish momentum.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in APAC?
• White oil prices in APAC declined modestly in July, primarily driven by soft demand from the lubricant blending sector, where downstream consumption remained weak despite upstream crude cost pressures.
• Local refiners maintained stable output, and ample inventories—built during previous restocking phases—ensured the market stayed well-supplied, limiting any cost-led price transmission.
• The automotive and industrial maintenance segments, key consumers of lubricants, exhibited subdued activity, curbing white oil offtake, and prompting a wait-and-watch procurement approach.
• In the absence of significant supply constraints or seasonal demand drivers, the market faced mild downward pressure, as suppliers adjusted offers to stimulate slow-moving volumes amid cautious trading sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, white oil prices in the North American region recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.3% compared to Q4 2024. At the start of the quarter, prices increased as Winter Storm Enzo disrupted refinery operations and port activities, tightening supply while cold weather boosted demand for skincare products. Higher crude oil prices further supported this temporary uptick, though logistical challenges and extended lead times amplified market volatility.
By mid-quarter, prices decreased as refinery operations normalized and ocean freight rates declined, improving import availability. Weak downstream demand persisted, with the personal care sector showing sluggish growth due to consumer spending concerns and inflationary pressures.
Towards the end of the quarter, prices continued declining as elevated refinery output and cheaper imports saturated the market. Despite a slight rebound in crude oil costs, weak demand from pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and plastics sectors left inventories high. The US saw the most significant change with a noticeable decline compared to Q4 2024, with the quarter-end price settling at USD 1350/MT CFR Texas. The QoQ decline was driven by mid-to-late quarter oversupply and stagnant consumption, outweighing early weather-related disruptions and cost pressures.
APAC
In Q1 2025, White Oil prices in the APAC region recorded a quarter-on-quarter incline of 4.5% compared to Q4 2024. Early in the quarter, prices increased due to ongoing supply tightness caused by low refining activity and refinery closures. Higher crude oil costs and limited bright stock availability added upward pressure. While Chinese blenders leaned on existing inventories, steady demand for lighter viscosity grades and pre-holiday buying supported the price rise. Mid-quarter, production stabilized as post-holiday operations resumed across the region. A decline in crude oil prices helped reduce input costs, keeping supply steady. However, downstream demand remained subdued, particularly in the beauty and personal care segment, which faced weak consumer spending. Despite cautious sentiment, buyers and suppliers positioned themselves for a potential demand rebound, maintaining mid-quarter price strength. By quarter-end, prices held steady amid balanced supply and demand. Stable operations and falling freight rates improved cost efficiency, but buyers remained conservative in procurement. The overall quarterly increase was driven by early supply-side constraints and resilient mid-quarter demand. China registered the most significant rise, with the quarter-end price settling at USD 1075/MT Ex-Shenzhen.
Europe
When compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 white oil prices in Europe recorded a slight quarter-on-quarter decline. At the start of the quarter, crude oil prices increased due to geopolitical risks and tightening supply, which pushed up feedstock costs. However, demand remained subdued as German cosmetics and personal care manufacturers grappled with inflationary pressures and elevated material expenses. Lubricant producers also exercised caution, deferring procurement amid broader economic uncertainty. Mid-quarter, crude oil prices fell, easing upstream cost pressures. Despite this relief, white oil consumption showed little improvement. Trade tensions escalated as U.S. threats of levies on German chemical exports pressured manufacturers to pivot toward regional markets, exacerbating oversupply. By quarter-end, crude oil prices fell further on signals of accelerated production from OPEC+, lowering feedstock costs once more. Elevated refinery output and competitive Asian imports saturated the European market, leaving inventories high. Despite marginal improvements in pharmaceutical sector procurement, sluggish cosmetics and personal care orders stifled price recovery. The QoQ decline was driven by sustained oversupply, stagnant downstream demand, and trade-related disruptions, outweighing early-quarter cost pressures. Persistent economic uncertainty and inflationary headwinds further dampened market sentiment, cementing the bearish trend.
