For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• White oil prices in North America declined by 5.8% QoQ in Q2 2025, as tepid downstream demand and easing logistics costs exerted continuous downward pressure on the market.
• Domestic refinery throughput remained stable, but inventory build-up—driven by weak demand—restricted any upward price momentum despite occasional feedstock cost increases.
• Supply chains saw improvement, with reduced freight rates from Asia lowering landed costs of imports, while domestic availability stayed adequate amid smooth refinery operations.
• Downstream demand from personal care and cosmetics industries stayed moderate, with manufacturers maintaining conservative purchasing strategies due to macroeconomic uncertainties and sluggish retail sales.
• Although occasional demand upticks occurred during seasonal peaks, they were insufficient to offset the persistent oversupply and soft consumption trends, keeping the market in a narrow, declining price range throughout the quarter.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in North America?
• White oil prices in North America witnessed a marginal decline in early July, driven by soft buying interest from the cosmetics sector, where end-users refrained from aggressive procurement due to ample existing inventories.
• Although crude oil feedstock prices moved higher, falling international freight rates made imported white oil more competitive, preventing any meaningful cost-push impact on final prices.
• Domestic refinery run rates saw minor adjustments, but the steady import availability ensured supply remained sufficient, limiting upward price adjustments.
• The combination of cautious demand, stable supply, and competitive import flows resulted in a modest price dip, with the market expected to remain under mild downward pressure unless downstream consumption rebounds.
Europe
• White oil prices in Europe declined QoQ in Q2 2025, as stagnant downstream demand and competitive imports from Asia exerted sustained downward pressure on domestic market valuations.
• European refiners maintained measured production rates, aligning output with tepid consumption trends across cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors to avoid inventory oversupply, despite stable upstream crude input availability.
• Demand from personal care and pharmaceutical sectors remained subdued, as macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced consumer spending discouraged restocking, with buyers maintaining lean inventory levels.
• The lubricant industry, a secondary consumer of white oil in industrial and specialty formulations, continued to show weak procurement patterns during Q2. Demand from metalworking fluids, textile lubricants, and pharmaceutical-grade lubricant applications remained subdued, reflecting broader industrial slowdown and cautious inventory strategies by manufacturers facing soft order volumes.
• Overall, the European white oil market faced a bearish pricing environment throughout Q2, as supply-side discipline was insufficient to counterbalance persistently weak demand fundamentals and intensified price competition from imports.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in Europe?
• White oil prices in Europe softened further in July, pressured by lacklustre downstream demand from the cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors, which continued to operate on minimal procurement strategies amid stagnant consumer sentiment.
• Despite stable domestic production, increased availability of competitively priced imports from Asian suppliers intensified price competition, forcing local producers to revise offers downward to maintain offtake volumes.
• Weak economic indicators and cautious purchasing behaviour among key end-user industries further limited transaction volumes, while high inventories from earlier stockpiling restricted new buying activity.
• With no notable supply disruptions or demand surges, market participants faced a structurally oversupplied scenario, leading to continued softness in white oil prices through July.
APAC
• White oil prices in APAC edged up by 0.6% QoQ in Q2 2025, as supply-side discipline and seasonal restocking in May offset weak demand fundamentals, resulting in a narrowly firm pricing environment.
• Domestic refineries across China operated at steady throughput levels, with manufacturers managing inventory cautiously amid volatile feedstock costs and persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
• Supply chains remained stable, with no major disruptions reported, while competitive import volumes from regional producers ensured sufficient market availability despite intermittent logistical inefficiencies.
• Downstream demand from lubricant and cosmetic sectors was inconsistent, with procurement driven by cautious, need-based strategies; seasonal restocking in May provided transient support but lacked sustainability.
• Overall, the APAC white oil market navigated Q2 with minimal volatility, as balanced supply conditions and sporadic demand upticks allowed prices to hold within a narrow range, though persistent demand-side fragility capped any robust bullish momentum.
Why did the White Oil Price Index change in July 2025 in APAC?
• White oil prices in APAC declined modestly in July, primarily driven by soft demand from the lubricant blending sector, where downstream consumption remained weak despite upstream crude cost pressures.
• Local refiners maintained stable output, and ample inventories—built during previous restocking phases—ensured the market stayed well-supplied, limiting any cost-led price transmission.
• The automotive and industrial maintenance segments, key consumers of lubricants, exhibited subdued activity, curbing white oil offtake, and prompting a wait-and-watch procurement approach.
• In the absence of significant supply constraints or seasonal demand drivers, the market faced mild downward pressure, as suppliers adjusted offers to stimulate slow-moving volumes amid cautious trading sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, white oil prices in the North American region recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.3% compared to Q4 2024. At the start of the quarter, prices increased as Winter Storm Enzo disrupted refinery operations and port activities, tightening supply while cold weather boosted demand for skincare products. Higher crude oil prices further supported this temporary uptick, though logistical challenges and extended lead times amplified market volatility.
By mid-quarter, prices decreased as refinery operations normalized and ocean freight rates declined, improving import availability. Weak downstream demand persisted, with the personal care sector showing sluggish growth due to consumer spending concerns and inflationary pressures.
Towards the end of the quarter, prices continued declining as elevated refinery output and cheaper imports saturated the market. Despite a slight rebound in crude oil costs, weak demand from pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and plastics sectors left inventories high. The US saw the most significant change with a noticeable decline compared to Q4 2024, with the quarter-end price settling at USD 1350/MT CFR Texas. The QoQ decline was driven by mid-to-late quarter oversupply and stagnant consumption, outweighing early weather-related disruptions and cost pressures.
APAC
In Q1 2025, White Oil prices in the APAC region recorded a quarter-on-quarter incline of 4.5% compared to Q4 2024. Early in the quarter, prices increased due to ongoing supply tightness caused by low refining activity and refinery closures. Higher crude oil costs and limited bright stock availability added upward pressure. While Chinese blenders leaned on existing inventories, steady demand for lighter viscosity grades and pre-holiday buying supported the price rise. Mid-quarter, production stabilized as post-holiday operations resumed across the region. A decline in crude oil prices helped reduce input costs, keeping supply steady. However, downstream demand remained subdued, particularly in the beauty and personal care segment, which faced weak consumer spending. Despite cautious sentiment, buyers and suppliers positioned themselves for a potential demand rebound, maintaining mid-quarter price strength. By quarter-end, prices held steady amid balanced supply and demand. Stable operations and falling freight rates improved cost efficiency, but buyers remained conservative in procurement. The overall quarterly increase was driven by early supply-side constraints and resilient mid-quarter demand. China registered the most significant rise, with the quarter-end price settling at USD 1075/MT Ex-Shenzhen.
Europe
When compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 white oil prices in Europe recorded a slight quarter-on-quarter decline. At the start of the quarter, crude oil prices increased due to geopolitical risks and tightening supply, which pushed up feedstock costs. However, demand remained subdued as German cosmetics and personal care manufacturers grappled with inflationary pressures and elevated material expenses. Lubricant producers also exercised caution, deferring procurement amid broader economic uncertainty. Mid-quarter, crude oil prices fell, easing upstream cost pressures. Despite this relief, white oil consumption showed little improvement. Trade tensions escalated as U.S. threats of levies on German chemical exports pressured manufacturers to pivot toward regional markets, exacerbating oversupply. By quarter-end, crude oil prices fell further on signals of accelerated production from OPEC+, lowering feedstock costs once more. Elevated refinery output and competitive Asian imports saturated the European market, leaving inventories high. Despite marginal improvements in pharmaceutical sector procurement, sluggish cosmetics and personal care orders stifled price recovery. The QoQ decline was driven by sustained oversupply, stagnant downstream demand, and trade-related disruptions, outweighing early-quarter cost pressures. Persistent economic uncertainty and inflationary headwinds further dampened market sentiment, cementing the bearish trend.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
White Oil prices in the North American market declined by approximately 11% during Q4 2024, despite an initial rise of around 2% at the start of the quarter. Early in the period, supply conditions were unfavorable due to seasonal hurricanes and a strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). These disruptions caused significant shipping backlogs, increasing lead times for deliveries and temporarily supporting prices. Additionally, weekly refinery run rates in October were assessed to be lower, further curtailing White Oil production across the region.
Toward the end of the year, market dynamics shifted as domestic refinery run rates increased, reaching 90.65% in November 2024, up from 88.25% in October, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This improvement, coupled with a 1.6% decline in crude oil prices, reduced White Oil production costs.
Meanwhile, suppliers focused on liquidating inventories, resulting in an oversupply that turned the market into a buyer’s market. This surplus placed substantial downward pressure on prices, culminating in the overall depreciation of White Oil prices by the end of the quarter.
Europe
The European White Oil market remained under sustained downward pressure throughout Q4 2024, marked by a bearish market sentiment. The region was amply supplied by Middle Eastern imports, while sluggish demand persisted due to contraction in manufacturing activities during the quarter. Supplies further improved as European producers resumed operations post-summer holidays, but limited offtakes led to an oversupplied market. By late October, an influx of cargoes arriving simultaneously caused stock build-ups in storage tanks, exacerbating the oversupply. However, increased shipping costs due to Houthi attacks on vessels and the necessity of rerouting shipments around the Cape contributed to higher price adjustments. Despite these factors, buyers reluctantly accepted higher costs for replenishment barrels.
In November 2024, additional quantities of light and heavy neutrals were offered at low prices, maintaining the bearish momentum in the market. Destocking activities intensified toward the end of the quarter, with suppliers liquidating existing inventories. The extended holiday period further weakened demand conditions, as many market participants reduced activity. Efforts to stabilize the market included run rate reductions by producers aiming to balance supply and demand dynamics.
Adding to the challenges, inland trading across the European market experienced disruptions, particularly in Northwestern Europe, where maintenance activities at key ports constrained logistical efficiency. These factors, combined with weak downstream demand and abundant supplies, contributed to a prolonged bearish trend in the European White Oil market by the end of 2024.
APAC
The Asian White Oil market experienced an overall bearish trend during Q4 2024, with prices initially rising by approximately 6.4% before declining by around 7.2%. In the first half of the quarter, refinery closures and reduced processing rates drove supply tightness, as negative refinery margins forced cutbacks. The average utilization rate of 50 state-owned refineries in China fell to a four-month low of 83% in October. During this period, four refineries underwent maintenance, collectively targeting a processing rate of 8.84 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to a combined capacity of 10.66 million b/d. Sinopec, one of China's major state-owned refiners, also reported a drop in primary utilization, falling to 84.5% in October from 90.3%, further contributing to supply constraints.
As the quarter progressed, White Oil supplies in China improved. November marked the first increase in refinery throughput in eight months, driven by Beijing's economic stimulus measures aimed at bolstering manufacturing and oil demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, refiners processed 58.51 million tonnes (MMt) of crude oil in November, equivalent to 14.24 million barrels per day (MMbpd), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. These developments alleviated some of the earlier supply pressures.
Toward the end of the quarter, destocking activities became prevalent as suppliers worked to reduce inventories. This surplus, combined with improved supply conditions, led to a decline in prices, ultimately reversing the initial gains seen earlier in the quarter and reinforcing the bearish market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, White Oil pricing in North America, especially in the USA, experienced a notable downward trend. This decline was influenced by several interconnected factors, including a significant decrease in demand from the cosmetic industry, coupled with reduced consumer spending, which contributed to a bearish market sentiment. Supply chain challenges, exacerbated by weather disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions, further complicated the situation.
Overall, prices decreased by 1% compared to the same quarter last year, with a similar decline observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. This downward pressure on prices was primarily driven by heightened production costs, increased freight charges, and lower refinery run rates, all of which limited the availability of White Oil. Despite improvements in water levels in the Panama Canal, which were expected to enhance the arbitrage opportunities for White Oil, supply conditions remained challenging. A critical issue was the prolonged shutdown of ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery in Illinois, one of the major facilities serving the Chicago area. The refinery lost power due to severe storms and tornado activity in late July, affecting its ability to operate. This incident led to the shutdown of multiple units, including the crude distillation unit and catalytic reformer, significantly impacting White Oil production in the region.
As a result of these dynamics, the quarter-ending price for White Oil cosmetic grade CFR Texas was recorded at USD 1,607/MT. This figure reflects the prevailing negative pricing environment, characterized by subdued demand and ongoing supply constraints that contributed to the overall decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The market's challenges underscored the fragility of supply chains and the impact of external factors on production and pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced mixed performance in White Oil pricing, heavily influenced by global geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions, and fluctuating crude oil prices. China saw the most significant price changes due to supply issues, rising production costs, and subdued demand from the gasoil sector. Key challenges included refinery closures by state-run Sinochem Group, which affected about 2% of China's national output. The Zhenghe and Changyi refineries were closed due to high crude costs and weak fuel demand, impacting production significantly. Despite these closures, there was a slight recovery in production conditions, with the operating rate at small independent refineries rising to 53% in July. However, the scheduled maintenance of 420,000 b/d capacity from PetroChina and Sinopec added further complexity to supply. Overall, Q3 prices declined by 19% compared to last year and by 1% from the previous quarter. Nevertheless, a 2% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated some resilience, concluding with a quarter-ending price of USD 935/MT for White Oil Technical grade CFR Shenzhen in China.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European White Oil market experienced a predominantly bearish trend, largely influenced by a significant 12% decline in feedstock crude oil prices. Challenging production conditions persisted as major refinery operations operated below capacity due to decreasing margins, prompting organizations to conduct strategic reviews of their European assets. The closure of several refineries, coupled with anticipated future shutdowns, created additional obstacles for White Oil production. Maintenance turnarounds at various refineries during the summer vacation period further exacerbated supply constraints, impacting the availability of White Oil in the European market. Demand from downstream lubricant and cosmetic industries continued to underperform even after the summer vacations. Lubricant blenders across Europe reported ample availability of White Oil, indicating little to no urgency for purchasing larger quantities for stock replenishment. Consequently, prices, which had remained relatively high during the summer months, began to face downward pressure due to this lack of demand. Overall, the combination of reduced crude oil prices, supply chain challenges, and weak demand dynamics contributed to a negative pricing environment for White Oil in Europe during the third quarter.
FAQs
1. What is the current price trend of White Oil in APAC, Europe, and North America (July 2025)?
White oil prices in APAC and Europe trended downward in July 2025, driven by weak demand from lubricant and personal care sectors, coupled with sufficient inventory levels. In North America, prices also remained under mild pressure, as steady supply and lacklustre downstream pull restricted any upward momentum despite higher feedstock costs.
2. What are the main factors influencing White Oil demand across regions?
In APAC, subdued demand from lubricant blenders and cautious restocking by cosmetic manufacturers limited market activity. Europe faced restrained procurement in the cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors due to weak consumer spending. North American demand was steady but uninspiring, with personal care and cosmetic sectors operating on immediate-need procurement amid economic uncertainty.
3. Which are the leading manufacturers of White Oil?
Prominent global White Oil producers include Exxon Mobil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, Shell plc, HF Sinclair Corporation, Calumet, Inc.
4. What is the short-term price outlook for White Oil in APAC, Europe, and North America?
White oil prices are expected to stay soft across APAC, Europe, and North America in the near term. Weak downstream demand, high inventory levels, and competitive import flows are likely to limit price recovery. Unless there is a significant uptick in end-user consumption or unforeseen supply disruptions, market sentiment is expected to remain bearish across all regions.
