For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In the first quarter of 2025, the North American yellow phosphorus market experienced limited movement, with the region relying on imports to meet its demand. Domestic production remained stable, but supply from key global producers, particularly Vietnam, was crucial in maintaining inventory levels. Energy costs, while still relatively high, showed gradual easing, offering some relief to producers. However, demand from downstream sectors such as fertilizers and phosphoric acid manufacturing remained subdued, largely due to a slower-than-expected economic recovery and ongoing industrial challenges.
Despite the broader market weakness, the semiconductor sector showed signs of recovery, with global sales expected to rise in 2025. This uptick in semiconductor demand was projected to support yellow phosphorus consumption, particularly for applications in high-performance chip manufacturing. While the overall demand remained lackluster, the resilience of the semiconductor industry and stable demand from industrial cleaning sectors helped balance the market, preventing significant volatility.
By March, prices significantly increased, propelled by heightened demand from the worldwide semiconductor sector and ongoing supply-side limitations. DGC restarted regular operations, supported by robust export activity, especially to markets such as the U.S., amid changing trade conditions and continued tensions between the U.S. and China.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the Vietnamese yellow phosphorus market experienced fluctuating dynamics driven by supply limitations and subdued demand. In January, prices saw a decline, primarily due to reduced operating rates at Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC) following maintenance shutdowns, which constrained domestic supply. Despite stable phosphate rock markets, demand from downstream industries such as fertilizers and phosphoric acid remained weak, impacted by a slower-than-expected economic recovery and reduced agricultural spending.
In February, prices slightly increased, as DGC continued to operate at reduced capacity. The company's efforts to streamline costs through mergers and acquisitions, particularly increasing its stake in Phosphates and Chemicals Company, were key strategies for improving profitability. Despite these moves, demand from the fertilizer and phosphoric acid sectors remained sluggish, though the semiconductor industry began to show signs of recovery, contributing to potential future growth in yellow phosphorus demand.
By March, prices rose notably, driven by increased demand from the global semiconductor industry and continued supply-side constraints. DGC resumed regular operations, bolstered by strong export performance, particularly to markets like the U.S., amid shifting trade dynamics and ongoing US-China tensions. Meanwhile, logistics delays and feedstock phosphate rock shortages continued to affect production, but the overall demand outlook remained stable, supported by steady needs from various sectors, including AI-driven semiconductor production and agricultural fertilizer applications in Asia.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2025, the European yellow phosphorus market faced a restrained performance, with limited price movement due to ongoing supply limitations and weak demand. The region’s reliance on imports, especially from Vietnam, was a key factor in meeting supply needs, as domestic production remained insufficient. Reduced operating rates at major suppliers, including Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC), which underwent maintenance shutdowns, impacted available domestic supply.
The semiconductor industry showed some positive trends, with a projected increase in global sales for 2025. This recovery in the semiconductor sector was expected to help boost yellow phosphorus demand in the coming months. However, weak market sentiment in the broader industrial sectors and elevated inventory levels kept price fluctuations in check. European manufacturers continued to rely heavily on imports to balance supply, while the demand outlook remained cautious but stable, with semiconductor demand offering hope for a gradual market improvement.
By March, prices increased significantly, fueled by heightened demand from the worldwide semiconductor sector and persistent supply-side limitations. DGC restarted its normal operations, supported by robust export performance, especially towards markets such as the U.S., in the context of changing trade dynamics and continual US-China tensions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, yellow phosphorus prices in North America demonstrated relative stability, influenced by seasonal demand patterns and consistent industrial consumption. October began with marginal price fluctuations as demand from key downstream industries, including fertilizers and phosphoric acid production, remained subdued due to elevated inventory levels and a slower-than-expected recovery in the agricultural sector.
However, a slight uptick in demand emerged in November, driven by a resurgence in the semiconductor industry and increased activity in AI-related applications. The downstream fertilizer sector remained steady, supported by ongoing agricultural operations, although the focus on sustainable farming methods and organic fertilizers limited the traditional demand for yellow phosphorus-based products.
By December, prices experienced modest increases as supply tightened due to weather-related disruptions affecting logistics and delivery schedules. The semiconductor industry, buoyed by robust advancements in AI and data centers, played a pivotal role in sustaining demand across the region. Additionally, stable phosphate rock costs and a shift toward advanced manufacturing technologies bolstered market confidence. While overall demand trends remained cautious, seasonal purchasing activity and the sustained growth in high-tech sectors ensured steady consumption.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the price trend of yellow phosphorus in the APAC region exhibited notable fluctuations driven by variations in supply, demand, and manufacturing dynamics. October witnessed a decline in yellow phosphorus prices in Vietnam. This decrease was primarily attributed to subdued demand in the phosphorus chloride industry, elevated inventory levels, and pre-holiday stocking by Chinese buyers during the National Day period. Additionally, weather-related disruptions and ample material availability in the Asian market further suppressed market dynamics. By November, the trend reversed, with prices surging. The primary catalyst was a maintenance shutdown at Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC) in Hanoi, which ran at reduced operating rates of 56%, significantly constraining domestic supplies and driving up prices. In December, yellow phosphorus prices rose modestly, fueled by steady semiconductor demand and lingering supply-side constraints from the November shutdown. While demand from fertilizers and phosphoric acid manufacturing remained tepid due to elevated inventories and slow economic recovery, the robust activity in AI and data center developments bolstered the semiconductor industry, a key consumer of yellow phosphorus. Vietnam, despite supply challenges, retained its position as the leading regional exporter, supported by signs of recovery in manufacturing activities post-Typhoon Yagi.
Europe
Yellow phosphorus prices in Europe during Q4 2024 showcased a dynamic trend influenced by regional supply challenges and fluctuating demand across industrial sectors. October began with stable pricing, supported by consistent demand from the fertilizer and phosphoric acid industries, though the overall sentiment was dampened by elevated inventories and a reduction in large-scale purchasing activities. The market saw limited momentum during the early part of the quarter, partly due to persistent economic challenges in key European economies. However, November brought a moderate price increase as regional supply tightened, with weather-related disruptions and logistical bottlenecks affecting imports from key exporters in Asia. Moreover, reduced domestic production capacities in several European facilities, coupled with higher energy costs, added to supply-side constraints. By December, prices were further bolstered by a revival in demand from the semiconductor and electronics sectors, particularly in Germany and Eastern Europe, driven by the global surge in AI and high-performance computing technologies. Upstream phosphate rock prices remained stable, providing cost stability for producers, but downstream demand in fertilizers stayed modest due to reduced agricultural activities during the winter season.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the yellow phosphorus market in North America experienced a decline in prices, primarily driven by subdued demand from the agricultural sector, unfavorable weather conditions, and cautious purchasing behavior. The overall market sentiment was largely negative, with prices following a consistent downward trend. The USA, in particular, saw notable price changes between the first and second halves of the quarter.
This decline can be attributed to a combination of low demand, disruptions from adverse weather, and uncertainties within the agricultural sector. Additionally, plant shutdowns contributed to supply constraints, further influencing the bearish market outlook. The ongoing volatility in agricultural production and the resulting impact on fertilizer application have added to the challenges faced by producers.
As manufacturers grappled with these market dynamics, the quarter concluded with yellow phosphorus priced at lower levels, underscoring the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region. Market participants remain cautious about future developments, closely monitoring demand trends and supply chain stability as they navigate the upcoming quarters.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant increase in yellow phosphorus prices, driven by various interrelated factors. Supply constraints stemming from disruptions in manufacturing activities and adverse weather conditions were pivotal in propelling prices higher. The market faced moderate to high supply levels, with manufacturers operating at normal capacity but encountering challenges related to logistics and extended shipping times.
Demand remained steady, with regional fluctuations noted across different markets. China particularly experienced the most pronounced price changes, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter. The overall trend in China showcased a bullish sentiment, characterized by stable demand coupled with limited supply, which contributed to the upward price movement. Seasonal factors and global market dynamics also played a role in influencing pricing trends.
While there was a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the quarter-ending price in China was positioned at elevated levels, reflecting a favorable pricing environment marked by rising prices. Additionally, plant shutdowns during the quarter further affected supply dynamics, reinforcing the overall upward price trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, yellow phosphorus pricing in the European region experienced a notable decline, with Germany seeing the most significant price fluctuations. The quarter was marked by a negative pricing environment driven by several factors. Adverse weather conditions impacted production capabilities, leading to reduced demand for yellow phosphorus in various applications, particularly in agriculture and industrial sectors. Furthermore, sluggish global demand and uncertainties in key markets exerted downward pressure on prices. The quarter recorded a considerable decrease compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the persistent challenges facing the market. In Germany, the pricing trend mirrored the overall European pattern, with prices declining significantly between the first and second halves of the quarter. Additionally, supply constraints were exacerbated by plant disruptions, including maintenance shutdowns at key facilities and operational challenges, which further impacted product availability during the quarter. These disruptions not only limited supply but also contributed to an overall sense of uncertainty among market participants, as they struggled to navigate the fluctuating conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the USA showed a generally bearish trend. Prices continued to decline due to reduced demand from downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, which led to an accumulation of inventories. The downstream sector remains sluggish, with purchases made mainly on an as-needed basis. Farmers have scaled back on fertilizer use due to cost and availability concerns, contributing to the drop in prices.
Supply-side challenges, including production constraints in Europe, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and trade restrictions in China, have also played a role in the decline. As a result, the overall market has experienced a downturn, with market activity remaining subdued and businesses operating at a slower pace.
In North America, particularly in North Dakota, farmers faced disruptions caused by geomagnetic storms, which halted planting operations until the effects of the solar storm subsided. Additionally, demand from international markets, including European countries like Norway and Spain, was subdued due to severe windstorms and floods. These domestic and international factors collectively led to a significant decrease in overall demand.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the APAC region experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors. The primary reason for the price hike was the improved consumer demand in downstream industries. Supply constraints also played a crucial role, particularly due to unscheduled plant shutdowns in China. Various manufacturers, including Leshan Jinguang Chemicals Co., Ltd., Sichuan Linhe Industrial Group Co., Ltd., and Chengdu Wintrue Holding, experienced temporary closures due to an earthquake in late May.
Additionally, flooding in Hubei in June affected plants like Yichang Yatai Chemical Co., Ltd. and Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co., Ltd., further tightening supply. The increased production costs, resulting from higher feedstock prices, also contributed to the bullish market sentiment. Focusing exclusively on Japan, Yellow Phosphorus prices exhibited the maximum changes. This increase was characterized by robust demand from the downstream phosphoric acid manufacturing industries and an anticipated improvement in the agricultural sector.
Despite an overall negative trend of -2% from the previous quarter in 2024, the pricing environment remained positive. The seasonality and correlation in price changes indicate a consistent upward trajectory, ending the quarter with a price of USD 3920/MT CFR Tokyo. This reflects a stable to bullish sentiment for Yellow Phosphorus in Japan, driven by supply disruptions and escalating production costs.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European Yellow Phosphorus market exhibited a bearish trend. Prices continued to fall due to diminished demand from downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, resulting in an inventory buildup. In the first month of Q2, prices in Germany declined due to weak consumer demand and global market pressures, further impacted by tensions in the Middle East. Despite maintenance shutdowns in exporting countries’ plants, European prices remained largely unaffected due to low demand in the agrochemical sector.
Mid-Q2 saw varied weather conditions across the European Union impacting agricultural activities. Excessive rainfall in Western Europe caused waterlogging and increased pest pressures, leading farmers to delay fertilizer investments. Countries like the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands experienced a wet winter and spring followed by warm weather, worsening pest issues and discouraging bulk purchases. These fluctuating weather patterns created an unpredictable agricultural environment, affecting demand.
In the last month of the quarter, Yellow Phosphorus prices in Germany edged up slightly due to supply constraints caused by rising water levels in the Rhine River, which delayed shipments. Despite global market uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, German prices showed some resilience, supported by stable benchmarks and modest demand dynamics.
