For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Yellow Phosphorus market in the North American region has observed a mixed pricing trend in the first quarter of 2023. The market sentiments for the product were in positive territory in the first month of Q1 2023 amid increased production rates and a surge in demand from the downstream fertilizer industry. In the next two months of Q1, the market prices of Yellow Phosphorus plummeted owing to weaker demand in the downstream agriculture industry and suppressed inquiries from domestic as well as international market participants. The manufacturing activities were stable, and domestic manufacturing units operated steadily, maintaining adequate inventories of Yellow Phosphorus in the region. Also, the downstream demand from the Phosphorus Pentachloride market in EV battery manufacturing was low due to sufficient product availability and a drop in electric vehicle sales in the Asian markets.
APAC
The Yellow Phosphorus market in China showcased a mixed pricing trend in the first quarter of 2023. In the first month of Q1, the market prices increased due to a surge in demand as restocking activities were observed ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Although, the supply remained pressurized due to the authority’s direction to restrict power consumption. In the following two months of Q1, the demand remained sluggish in the domestic and international markets, and sufficient inventories of Yellow Phosphorus were present, leading to a disbalance in the supply and demand dynamics. Also, in March, the manufacturing PMI dropped due to a weaker demand outlook amid recession fear in the global market, the overall market prices slipped down, and bearish market sentiments prevailed in the region. The offered quotes for Yellow Phosphorus (99.9%) FOB Qingdao settled at USD 4454 per tonne at the end of Q1 2023.
Europe
The Yellow Phosphorus market in Europe exhibited mixed sentiments in the first quarter of 2023 due to uncertainties related to economic conditions as the central banks raised the interest rates to compete with the rising inflation. The demand for Yellow Phosphorus fluctuated throughout Q1 amid a weaker demand outlook from the downstream polymer and automotive industries in the region as the market consumers were reluctant for new purchases. Higher energy prices also affected the overall market of Yellow Phosphorus in the Eurozone. The manufacturing activities dropped throughout Q1 amid slower production rates and sluggish demand from domestic and international markets. The downstream Phosphorus Pentachloride market also has lagging demand for the product amid a drop in EV sales in the Asian markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Overall, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the North American region has observed mixed sentiments in the fourth quarter of 2022. This development has been majorly attributed to the ongoing fertilizers shortages across the regions that have been coupled with the drop in the operating rates at the facilities by the month-end. The operating rates across the value chain have impacted the market as the market players have reduced the operating rates or temporarily suspended production as a precautionary measure of the Arctic storm in the US. At the same time, Vietnamese exports were also scrutinized after the authorities limited the volumes for export. As a ripple effect, the CFR Houston was assessed at USD 5721 per tonne in December 2022.
Asia Pacific
Overall, the Yellow Phosphorus market in Asia has showcased an ambiguous trend that varies across the subregions. The Chinese market has remained on an upward trajectory, and the discussions have remained stagnant for most of the quarter; however, the offers remain higher compared to the traditional quotations. At the end of the third quarter, the Chinese authorities imposed "Energy Efficiency Management" over the Yunnan province's "largest Yellow Phosphorus producing region" till the mid of the second quarter of 2023. In response, the operating rates at the facilities dropped in between when the world observed fertilizers shortages. Therefore, the supply-demand gap has soared tremendously in the spot market. However, during the quarter's end, the Chinese authorities eased COVID restrictions improving the arbitrage with Vietnam. Major producers stated, "with the border opening, constraints on procuring the raw material has eased considerably." As a ripple effect, the FOB-Saigon discussions for Yellow Phosphorus were assessed at USD 5460 per tonne in December 2022.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the European region has observed a slightly bearish outlook amidst the traditional off-season. The CFR Antwerp discussions for Yellow Phosphorus were assessed as a ripple effect at USD 5878 per tonne. In terms of supply, the region has consistently remained under a constraint as the production cuts in China have diverted the inquiries traffic toward other sources. Although, a drop in the offers of shipping freights has kept the additional cost under control, further coupled with the seasonal off-trend against the dropping temperature in the European markets.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Overall, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the North American region witnessed mixed sentiments during the third quarter of 2022. However, significant imported volumes from the Southeast Asian markets have capped the prices of Yellow Phosphorus to shoot up further in the domestic market. In addition, the hovering high demand from the fertilizers segments, further coupled with rising inflation and concerns regarding food security, has kept market sentiments upwards. In addition, exports remained limited due to dull market activities in the European markets. As a ripple effect, the DDP USGC discussions for Yellow Phopshporus were assessed at USD 6080 per tonne during the September quarter.
Asia Pacific
The Yellow Phosphorus market in the Asia Pacific region observed mixed sentiments that varied across the sub-regions. Bearish sentiments dominated the dynamics in the Northeast Asian region for most of the quarter. However, the quotations rebounded significantly in the quarter's latter half, when the power rationing impacted the Chinese market. Whereas the Southeast Asian market was consistently moved in a downward trajectory due to a slowdown in offers from the Chinese suppliers that instigated the price-competitiveness amongst the market participants in APAC. As a ripple effect, the FOB Qingdao discussions for Yellow Phosphorus averaged USD 4664 per tonne in September.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2022, the dynamics of the Yellow Phosphorus market remained suppressed across the European regions. The orders were dominated based on a contract, whereas the spot inquiries remained dull amidst the summer holidays in the European region. In addition, the depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar, followed by rising inflation in the region, has curtailed the offtakes to below average compared to the customs data on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter. In response, the offers for Yellow Phosphorus staggered slightly downward in September and averaged USD 6176 per tonne.
During the second quarter of 2022, the North American market for Yellow Phosphorus observed a sturdy upward trajectory in the market sentiments and prices. This development is majorly attributed to Russia's retaliatory measures against the sanctions imposed by the US and the UK with several other nations' help. In response, the demand from the overseas market, especially from western Europe, has soared drastically amongst the suppliers in North America. The US is also witnessing a food crisis as the global food index soared to a historic high at the beginning of the second quarter, followed by the supply-demand gap in the domestic market. As a ripple effect, the prices of the Yello Phosphorus remain sturdy in the US domestic market, and the discussions settled at USD 5980 per tonne during the quarter ending June 2022.
The Yellow Phosphorus market across Asia has heated up in the last month. The bullish sentiments remained persistent throughout May and will likely prevail its impact in June. This development in the market movement is majorly attributed to the resumption of arbitrage after the Chinese authorities uplifted a prolonged lockdown regarding the improvement of public movement and resumption of activities in the Chinese domestic market. Post-Shutdown, the operating loads at the Yellow Phosphorus facilities are not high in the Chinese market, and the operating loads remain suppressed with a minimal increase in the on-site operations. The sentiments in the spot market are tight, and the transactions were active with the prices. As a repercussion, the minimal availability of the Phosphate rocks and persistent inquiries soared the quotations. The FOB Qingdao discussions for Yellow Phosphorus were assessed at USD 5760 per tonne in May.
In the second quarter of 2022, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the European region remained bullish. This development is majorly attributed to the retaliatory measures by Russian authorities against the western sanctions imposed by the US and the UK with the support of several other nations. The Russian authorities decided to restrict the exports of the essential fertilizers ahead of the upcoming peak season in Europe, causing a sudden surge in demand for Yellow Phosphorus. The COVID restrictions in China hindered the imports of Yellow Phosphorus due to the port congestion. As a ripple effect, the discussions for Yellow Phosphorus were settled at USD 5970 per tonne in June.
