Global ammonia markets faced volatility in June 2025 due to supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and reduced natural gas supplies. While demand remained steady, cautious buying and potential future shortages are expected to push prices higher.
The Ammonia market exhibited an increased volatility worldwide in the first half of June 2025, with upstream disruption and rising geopolitical tensions playing the major role. The major driver has been the reduction of natural gas supplies to major exporting countries, particularly Trinidad, that has limited Ammonia production and lowered the export capacity. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, including drone attacks on critical infrastructure, further destabilized supply chains and increased logistical uncertainty. These accumulated stresses have fostered a sensitive market climate, provoking increased caution among participants to anticipate supply disruptions and what they mean for pricing and availability in principle importing markets.
The Russia-based European Ammonia market underwent increased volatility for the first half of June 2025 as a result of massive disruptions in supply, along with dynamic demand conditions. After the delayed re-opening of the Togliatti–Odesa Ammonia pipeline last month, the area suffered from yet another severe setback to its manufacturing facilities. In the evening of June 8, Ukrainian drone raids hit vital industrial facilities, such as the Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant located in Stavropol Krai. This event resulted in an instantaneous shut down of operations at the plant, which is a principal producer of Ammonia and related inputs. This attack substantially impeded Russia's regional Ammonia and its critical downstream derivative production including nitric acid and methanol production and put pressure on the wider European supply chain. The incident highlights the vulnerability of the market to geopolitical tensions, particularly as production and transport routes are still susceptible to violence-related threats.
In terms of purchasing activity demand remained stable, with steady domestic consumption from the fertilizer and industrial sectors.
For the North American market, Ammonia prices were fairly steady in the first half of June 2025 due to a balanced supply situation. Traders have been able to restock inventories and tender out with ease in order to satisfy end-users, and firms like Mosaic and Eco Oracle have been reportedly looking to take delivery on the same schedule as the Tampa contract for mid-June. On the supply side, while long-term prospects for low-emission Ammonia still look encouraging—with more than 450 million tons of transitional and green Ammonia schemes under development announced—market sentiment turned wary in response to possible curtailments of gas in Trinidad. While current contractual arrangements are not affected, producers are said to be planning for frequent supply interruptions, which could affect future availability.
On the demand side, buying activity has been largely subdued. As the corn planting season approaches completion, buying interest has fallen considerably. Market participants put a large percentage of Ammonia application through as of mid-May. Downstream consumers are thus showing restraint, taking a conservative "wait-and-see" attitude toward purchasing for the next planting season. This conservative demand for Ammonia has put a generally flat trend on prices, with minimal spot activity seen.
As per ChemAnalyst, the prices of Ammonia are expected to move northwards in the forthcoming days surrounded by global tensions, which may eventually lead to supply constraints, fuel price hikes eventually exerting upward pressure on Ammonia prices.
