In June 2025, China's ammonium nitrate prices increased slightly on seasonal farm demand and supply chain dislocations. Even with decreasing feedstock prices, rising procurement for rice and cotton seeding underpinned prices. Prices in Europe also increased after a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Nevinnomyssk Azot factory, which is one of Russia's major fertilizer manufacturers. The attack, combined with continued EU sanctions, increased supply risks and contributed to the volatility of the world market for ammonium nitrate.
The ammonium nitrate prices showed a small uptrend in the Chinese market, which was a continuation of the trend witnessed in the last month. The price was mainly influenced by seasonal buying activity and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting international supply chains.
Domestically, Chinese ammonium nitrate prices crept up, in spite of bearish pressure from falling costs of the major feedstocks—viz. ammonia and nitric acid—over the same interval. The limited effect of these feedstock price decreases indicates that the other market fundamentals were more active in determining ammonium nitrate pricing.
The main force behind the price rise was a modest recovery in downstream demand, especially from agriculture. By mid-June, the beginning of rice and cotton crop planting seasons in major production areas led to stepped-up stockpiling by end-users, putting moderate upward pressure on ammonium nitrate prices.
Conversely, the European market—specifically Russia saw a significant surge in ammonium nitrate prices. This was primarily due to the unexpected supply chain disruptions brought about by rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. On June 14, a Ukrainian drone attack hit the Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical complex in Russia's Stavropol Krai, Russia's one of the largest manufacturers of ammonium nitrate and other industrial chemicals. The attack allegedly resulted in heavy infrastructural damage and compelled a temporary closure of operations at the plant.
Nevinnomyssk Azot is a key producer of fertilizer components, explosives, and rocket propellants. The brief shutdown of this plant inserted significant volatility into the local supply chain and added to market uncertainty, especially in Eastern Europe.
Compounding these difficulties, the European Union continued—and is likely to increase—its sanctions against Russia over continued military pursuits in Ukraine. These sanctions involve prohibitions on trading several commodities, such as fertilizers like ammonium nitrate, because they can have dual-use in farming and as explosive precursors.
As per ChemAnalyst analysis, prices of ammonium nitrate are likely to be volatile in the days to come. Feedstock price fluctuations—especially ammonia and nitric acid radical price changes—paired with a moderate recovery in downstream demand might fuel a fresh price hike. Nevertheless, any unexpected changes in the global trade scenario, such as geopolitical tensions or policy changes, may hijack this trend and disturb market stability.
