Between 25 December 2025, and 31st December 2025, the worldwide freight market ended the year with mitigated dynamics due to reduced spot market demand, although with highly optimistic routes. Overall, market indices indicated a 2% depreciation on an overall basis for December, at around $2,278 per 40ft container, which reinforced the ongoing trend started at the beginning of 2025, whereby spot market routes on east-west international trade softened on a YoY basis by 34%. Despite the decrease, market volatility dipped below the levels registered in 2024, demonstrating that market reorientation continues without dramatic changes as was recorded in the past. Market analysts predict that the beginning of 2026 suggests possible increases on east-west market routes while north-south routes face stability, which jointly foreshadow a slight increase on the overall index at the beginning of the new year.
Asia–Europe freight remained among the stronger global corridors through this period. The Asia–Europe component of the freight index rose about 13% in December to approximately $3,049 per 40-ft, reflecting steadier demand relative to many other trades and a continued flow of China-origin cargo toward Europe. Carriers have introduced a series of higher FAK rate levels since early October, leveraging robust bookings for late December and early January sailings as shippers prepare for the 2026 Lunar New Year, which falls earlier than usual on 17 February.
Spot freight rates from Shanghai to Genoa held around $3,400 per FEU, and Asia to North Europe routes exceeded $2,500 per FEU. Ship operators also introduced GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges for specific Asia to Europe services set to take place in early January 2026, which indicates that the operators are adopting a non-blanket pricing strategy. The initiative takes place as the contract year is set to kick off and the operators take measures to sustain the floor rates during the early stages of the contract year.
At the same time, other global corridors showed divergence. On China–South Africa routes, December spot levels dropped roughly 19% month-on-month to about $3,189 per FEU, marking four months of consecutive declines. Demand on this route lagged, falling about 17% from September to October even as capacity expanded, pushing utilization sharply lower and pointing to the need for further capacity cuts to stabilize.
Trade policy trends also shaped freight flows and carrier decisions. Elevated United States tariffs on Chinese imports remained a structural factor in cargo routing, with some shippers diverting volumes toward Europe, where tariff burdens are comparatively lower. China’s export data for November and early December showed weaker shipments to the United States but continued growth into the European Union, supporting relative strength on Asia–Europe lanes late in the year.
Outlook for Early 2026
The Asia-European route is likely to maintain relative strength in the wake of seasonal patterns and initial contract engagements. Carriers are advised to exercise capacity control and steer clear of widespread overcapacity, which might undermine the hard-fought rates. Specific GRIs as well as peak season rates should ideally be titrated based on known demand and assessed on restricted shipments and should avoid widespread increases that might not be supported by the overall market. The focus on reliability and high-quality service programs is critical to win high-value shipments in the post-season and entering the 2026 contract season.
