As of the end of November 2025, the Asian caustic soda market remained soft, with prices falling in some markets and remaining plateaued in others. This was even though the demand from downstream industries, especially alumina, remained sluggish, as consumers bought only as and when required. Raw salt production was lower, but it did not help alleviate the situation. Downstream industries performed erratically, as the production of alumina, paper, fabric, and detergents had surged and declined, respectively, adding further inconsistency to the caustic soda demand outlook.
The Asian caustic soda market remained weak at the end of the last week of November 2025, and the price fell in some areas. The market tone remained negative because the market demand and supply were weak. In Jiangsu, the caustic soda prices remained flat. In Inner Mongolia, the market witnessed some stabilization.
This was mainly due to the lacklustre demand from the downstream markets, specifically the alumina segment. The players from the alumina industry were not that eager to step into the market and were content to make their purchases as and when the needs arise. This strategy kept the trading volumes low and, thus, the market performance remained stagnant. Analysts forecast that the alumina market would continue to fluctuate, though slightly weaker, which would further dull the demand for caustic soda. As a result, caustic soda suppliers are likely to face continued pressure until alumina procurement trends stabilise.
On the supply side, the market continued to be stable but oversupplied. China’s caustic soda production in October 2025 reached 3.897 million tons (calculated as 100%), up 3.5% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively, between January and October, the total production was 38.241 million tons, up 4.6% compared to the same period last year. Simply put, the increase in production keeps pressuring the prices, as growth in demand continues to lag.
Upstream, the production of raw salt for October came in at 6.314 million tons, showing an annual decrease of 1.8%. For the period of January to October, the total production reached 51.459 million tons, showing an annual decrease of 1.2%. Although the contraction in the amount of raw salt was subtle, it failed to mitigate the market’s caustic soda oversupply.
As for the downstream sectors, there were varying responses. As per the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of alumina for the month of October was recorded to increase to 7.865 million tons, up 5.8 percent from last year, accumulating 76.344 million tons from January to October, which was up 8.0 percent. Paper and paperboard production continued to increase, where for the month of October, 14.346 million tons were produced, up 5.9 percent from last year. Nonetheless, the production of fabric decreased significantly for the month, which fell 6.4 percent from last year, while the production of synthetic detergents decreased 1.1 percent during the same period. These mixed signals across end-use sectors highlight uneven consumption patterns, affecting overall procurement levels for caustic soda, particularly in segments where operating rates remain subdued.
As per ChemAnalyst, for the coming period, the caustic soda prices would remain weak and range bound. This would be because the downstream sector would continue to show restraint regarding purchases and the supply would remain high. In such an outlook, there would be no major support for an increase in prices. This would depend on the recovery of demand for alumina and other major sectors, which remains crucial for improving overall caustic soda market stability.
