Caustic soda prices in Asia remained stable in the first week of November 2025 because balanced supply and cautious downstream demand supported the prices. The prices in China, after gaining earlier on tight supply and a spate of maintenance shutdowns, consolidated in key regions in late October. Volatility in the price of alumina due to rising Indonesian and Chinese supply did little to dent caustic soda demand. Improved availability, stable inland production, and manageable port operations also reinforced the steadiness in the market. Stable energy costs and maintained electricity tariffs supported producers in managing the operating expenses to keep prices consolidated.
Caustic soda prices in Asia remained stable in the first week of November 2025, because of a properly balanced supply and cautious demand from the downstream industries. Despite the volatility in the alumina market, caustic soda was resilient, and manufacturers showed consistent availability while buyers were working conservatively.
In China, the price of caustic soda stabilized in the key regions of Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia. After reaching higher levels early in the month due to tight supply and shutdowns for maintenance, improved availability eased the market, and prices remained stable. This was further supported by stable production inland and manageable port operations.
The main consumer market of caustic soda, alumina, also faced rapidly increasing pressure from Indonesian and Chinese supply. Indonesian spot trading volumes continued to increase with the new refinery capacity hitting the market. This addition of new supplies sets up a competitive environment for the market, placing downward pressure on prices. Market sentiment was cautious as participants continued to eye Chinese import parity and potential cuts in production due to oversupply.
Pressure on the alumina market may therefore be somewhat eased by the fact that smelting capacity is expanding in Indonesia. A greenfield aluminium smelter project started operations recently, although it is currently running below full capacity. Another facility is due to be commissioned shortly. These may lead to further support for Caustic Soda demand in the longer term, but Caustic Soda market participants are sceptical about its short-term effect since alumina production continues to outpace the growth in smelting.
In China, domestic alumina prices remained under pressure due to increased local supply. Indeed, domestic and seaborne alumina price gaps suggest that there is import arbitrage potential; however, actual volumes have been inconsistent in the Caustic Soda downstream sector. South China showed more potential for imports, while prices in North China remained closer to the level of seaborne prices. Buyers remained cautious, especially as domestic prices approached the cost thresholds, bringing up speculation about possible production cuts at refineries.
Meanwhile, world energy prices overall showed a mixed trend impacting caustic Soda price trend. Electricity tariffs in Indonesia were maintained to support industrial competitiveness, and the price of crude oil was down very slightly. These factors altogether helped to keep operating costs for caustic soda producers in the region stable.
The overall stability was maintained by the caustic soda market in Asia despite the changing dynamics of the alumina sector. As per ChemAnalyst, prices are likely to remain consolidated with ample availability of the commodity and restrained demand in the short term, provided there are no significant disturbances in raw material prices or energy pricing.
