Sulphur prices in Asia strongly rebounded during late October and early November 2025, against expectations of a seasonal slowdown. Overseas demand, especially from Indonesia and India, coupled with limited supply from Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, was responsible for the rally. Domestic port inventories fell, while sharper declines were seen in the Yangtze River ports on reduced arrivals, reinforcing tight supply. Speculative stockholding and restocking by phosphate fertilizer plants further pushed the market upward. However, risks such as weakening phosphorus fertilizer demand, substitution with smelting-grade sulphuric acid, and cautious downstream buying would be a damper. Analysts expect Sulphur prices to stay firm in the near term, though volatility persists.
Sulphur prices in Asia jumped sharply during the last week of October and the first week of November, going against the grain of what had been considered a seasonal slowdown. The market focus shifted from "Golden September and Silver October" to "Silver September and Golden October", according to China Chemical Information Weekly, with prices hitting multi-year highs.
By October 30, mainstream domestic sulphur transaction prices edged up, the first increase since September.
Overseas markets drove much of the rally. Indonesia's sulphur procurement rose steadily since mid-August, pushing CFR prices higher by mid-October, with new orders after October 20. Indonesian procurement prices reached highs by late October, while India saw limited transactions. Limited supply from Russia and Central Asia, combined with tighter availability from the Middle East, added further upward pressure.
Domestic port inventories also played a role. As of October 29, the national sulphur inventories were down month-on-month. In Yangtze River ports, sharper declines were seen, with inventories drop. Reduced arrivals in October, reinforced tightness in supply. As November arrivals are expected to remain low, inventories are likely to continue falling, further supporting prices.
Speculative trading activity has amplified the rise. Traders, in expectation of higher prices, refrained from releasing stocks to the market. High international transaction prices discouraged quick sales, as replenishment costs stayed high. Restocking demand due to the resumption of phosphate fertilizer plants after maintenance further tightened the market.
However, there are still risks. Some companies have started producing sulphuric acid of smelting grade instead of sulphur as feedstock to produce acid, thus lowering demand. The phosphorus fertilizer market has been weakening, which could reduce purchasing power in the Sulphur market. Fewer high-priced transactions and a prudent attitude adopted by downstream buyers may also restrain a future upward pace in the Sulphur market.
As per ChemAnalyst, despite these risks, sulphur prices in Asia are expected to remain firm in the near term. Strong overseas demand, falling inventories, and speculative stockholding continue to push the market upwards. Thus, sulphur prices are expected to be high through early November unless demand falls considerably or supply conditions improve.
Together with the limited supply from Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, high procurement activity continuing from Indonesia and India is likely to sustain the uptrend. However, risks exist, as weakening markets for phosphorus fertilizers, substitution with smelting-grade sulphuric acid, and cautious buying from downstream buyers could gradually weigh on demand. As inventories decline further and imports remain tight, prices are likely to remain firm in the near term, but volatility cannot be ruled out.
