Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate Despite Diplomatic Signals on August 4

Two major maritime chokepoints, the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, are both in the same pattern of diplomatic signals of a deal edging closer followed almost immediately by fresh attacks on commercial vessels this week. Turkey has moved from warning to formally proposing a moratorium on attacks, and conflicting reports over whether Ankara restricted straits traffic point to a situation that's tense but has not seen a formal closure. In Hormuz, Iran's own security council contradicted more optimistic diplomatic signals just days after they emerged.

Russian logistics group FESCO suspended accepting new shipment orders via the Black Sea on August 4th, days after Rosatom which owns about 92.5% of it confirmed that its vessel Yanina, was damaged by Ukrainian seaborne drones and sank overnight between July 31 and August 1. This one move widens the maritime conflict as Russia’s main grain lobby group told the Reuters last week that continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and ports could shut down grain exports via Black Sea completely. 

Following with the Black Sea a genuine discrepancy emerged over the weekend. Market sources reported Ankara had restricted commercial ship traffic entering the Black Sea following the attacks on vessels. Turkey officials who spoke anonymously mentioned that Turkey has implemented temporary measure’s reflecting long standing discomforts over security. This leads to a certain air of confusion regarding whether Turkey has blocked the Black Sea route or not, however following on to a newer development turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan said on the 8th of August that “the conflict has spread across the whole Black Sea” noting that military ports and warships were targeted first, but now even commercial vessels are being hit indiscriminately. With these developments we can expect war-risk and fuel surcharges to stay sticky, alongside continued volatility in grain and bulk pricing tied to the Black Sea exports, even with Turkey’s straits technically open under Montreux, the pressure point can tip from a smooth passage to real restrictions with a little warning in the future.

These Black Sea developments here landed the same week as the Hormuz diplomacy hit its own wall with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council which stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the united stated “corrects it’s behaviour”, alongside the UAE report that one of its ships was targeted by an Iranian missile

Short- Term Outlook

No meaningful de-escalation to be expected on either of the corridors over the coming weeks. In the Black Sea we should watch out for Moscow and Kyiv’s response to Turkey’s moratorium proposal, if both stay silent and continue strikes, expect more carriers to follow FESCO’s lead and pull back Black Sea bookings. War-risk premiums and Cape of Good Hope diversions that are already built into Asia-Pacific and Mediterranean rates to hold through at least the next week, with a real easing unlikely, mutually confirmed reopening announcement, something that has not happened yet despite repeated near deal- signals since July.