Sodium hydroxide, or caustic soda, is firm in more major Asian markets, with a balanced supply vs. demand, beginning in the first week of October 2025. The meaning of the Japanese auto sector being behind is generally referential to the global supply chain remaining low in production and consumers are pushing off orders. However, construction demand offered some modest support. India's persistent industrial strength, with significant aluminum production, has strong demand for caustic soda. Of course, Pakistan and some textile exports were weak exports to deal in. Singapore's improved PMI, and electricity tariffs have stabilized. Japan has struggled with exports, but domestic consumption has been stable. Overall, the resilience of defensive buying and consumption patterns in container chemicals, especially in heavy industry, should keep prices hold and consolidated.
Caustic soda prices in key Asian markets remained firm during the first week of October 2025 against localized pressures and shifting demand balances. While some markets suffered small losses, overall market fundamentals supported a consolidating price trend.
Pricing in China was mixed. Shandong Province recorded the sharpest decline. It was followed by falling alumina prices, reducing profit margins for downstream producers and encouraging conservative, spot-driven procurement. Jiangsu Province was firm, and Inner Mongolia was firm as well. Oversupply and producers' efforts to clear inventory ahead of the National Day holiday explain the subdued pricing environment.
India's caustic soda sector continued to perform well with strong industrial production. The aluminium sector also continued to expand, contributing to the strength of caustic soda demand in petrochemical applications. Textile exports remained impacted by softness of world demand and tariff concerns but domestic usage in food processing, manufacturing, and sewage treatment continued to hold up. The chemical sector also started to mend with better margins and contributed to maintaining even procurement levels.
In Indonesia, the demand was more limited. The auto market underperformed, with a 15.1% year-on-year decrease in passenger vehicle sales limiting caustic soda consumption in alumina applications. Stable construction consumption, however, offset softer industrial demand. Purchasers remained cautious and focused on core volumes against broader economic uncertainty.
Japan's caustic soda production sector also remained in a similar caution stance. Q3 commenced with an overall downturn in industrial exports, which correlates with ongoing trade frictions with the USA. However, domestic sentiment has remained reasonably buoyant, aided by close to 90% of responding households anticipating price increases over the next 12 months. This provided generally solid buying in food processing and manufacturing, including caustic soda and remained supported despite ongoing declines in industrial exports. Fiscal stimulus, and the anticipated reflation of the economy under new leadership, also fed into domestic consumption.
Singapore also supported price stability across the region. The manufacturing index improved in September, with reporting the best improvement, with support from the electronics sector. The greater growth of both new orders and purchases inputs indicates a greater sense of optimism in the industrial sector, especially downstream alumina, illustrated in new orders data. Alongside this, the stability of electricity tariffs, and the ongoing caution of inventory levels by chemical clients, resulted in chemical clients maintaining stable operating costs and purchasing behaviours.
As per ChemAnalyst, caustic soda prices expected to remain in the mode of consolidation. Though domestic demand in some regions of the country remains weak and inventories remain high, uninterrupted consumption in heavy industries and defensive buying trends will support prices.
