China Corrugated Box Prices Surge 2% in Sept 2025 on Tight Supply and Rising Raw Material Costs

China Corrugated Box Prices Surge 2% in Sept 2025 on Tight Supply and Rising Raw Material Costs

Patricia Jose Perez 14-Oct-2025

In September of 2025, global corrugated box markets experienced moderate price increases influenced by a combination of strong demand for the festive season, stable raw material costs, and tight supply conditions. In China, prices increased due to an increase in the cost of waste yellow cardboard, lower production levels from the shutdown of mills, and consumption accelerating from traditional e-commerce, food and beverage, and FMCG levels. The USA market maintained stable-to-positive momentum due to positive consumer confidence, festive demand, and increasing adoption of sustainable/green packaging. However, there were limitations on price gains stemming from strong inventories and higher costs of wastepaper. In Germany, market firmness continued as a result of external supply chain factors, including port congestion and rail and logistics disruption limitations, along with robust e-commerce and FMCG activity. In all regions, producers continued to face cost pressures and logistical constraints, while benefitting from strong demand domestically and for exports. In all, the corrugated box market retained a bullish tone through September and was expected to continue to experience a moderate degree of stability into the fourth quarter of 2025.

During September xxxx, international corrugated box markets showed moderate/firm pricing movements, underpinned by limited supply conditions, increased input costs for raw materials, and continued strong seasonal demand for corrugated box from the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and e-commerce markets. The three major producing regions – China, the USA, and Germany, all posted price rises for the month, reflecting similar supply-side constraints along with increasing levels of demand-side optimism leading up to festival periods. 

In China, FOB Shanghai Corrugated Box prices rose to USD xxx/MT for the end of the month, resulting in a xx increase in price for September. The overall price movement was mainly linked to a x.xx increase in the price for waste yellow cardboard (the main raw material). Corrugated box supply levels were limited as many large paper mills as possible in Zhejiang Province were shut down unexpectedly in the middle of the month,...

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