Prices for Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in China went down during the first half of November 2025, while in Germany, the market remained stable. For both regions, good supply levels coupled with weak construction activity and cautious procurement strategies further fuelled subdued demand and capped price momentum.
In China, LLDPE prices fell in the first half of November 2025, driven by resilient supply and lackluster demand. The cost of feedstock ethylene decreased 3.3%, which reduced the production expense and undermined cost-side support for the price of resins. The broader manufacturing activity weakened despite stable production and enough inventories, with the national PMI at 49.0, indicating contraction. The export activity trailed the seasonal average, leaving extra volumes circulating domestically.
On the demand side, the strong year-over-year growth in NEV production and sales, surging 33.1% and 32.7%, correspondingly, failed to reflect positively in LLDPE intake as converters limited procurement to short-cycle needs.
Export demand gave only benchmark support, as India's rebound in construction and automotive sales was offset by declines in South Korea's vehicle market and broader Asian construction activity. Collectively, the subdued demand and cost-side softness acted to reinforce the downward pressure and drive the observed price decline for LLDPE.
LLDPE prices in Germany did not change during the period in review, which reflected the balance between resilient supply and restrained demand. Domestic LLDPE production was steady—with favorable feedstock economics on the back of 1.5% lower ethylene costs that eased production margins.
Contraction in the broader German manufacturing sector—impelled by global competition and trade-related uncertainties—encouraged cautious operating strategies. Some European facilities reduced stocks and ran at lower capacity utilization, while imports from Asia and the Middle East added to availability, creating a surplus that outweighed minor logistical frictions.
On the demand side, automotive registrations rose 6.2% month-on-month to 250,133 units, sustaining baseline LLDPE consumption for protective films and interior components. However, weak industrial sentiment and competitive imports pressured margins.
Construction activity posted its sharpest decline since March—with civil engineering reversing its gains—residential activity sinking deeper into recession, and commercial projects slowing under high costs and elevated interest rates. Packaging demand stayed flat, so overall offtake remained moderate and supported stable price levels.
The LLDPE markets in China and Germany are expected to remain under pressure in the coming weeks, amid cautious procurement and weak construction activity. In China, resilient supply and subdued export demand are likely to keep LLDPE prices soft, despite locally supportive factors linked to the growth of NEVs. In Germany, stable production and competitive imports will continue to support availability; weak industrial sentiment and contraction in the construction sector may cap a rebound in LLDPE demand, however. Heading into the year-end, a short cycle purchasing strategy with a focus on inventory control rather than expansion is expected for buyers in both regions.
