In early May 2025, the HDPE (High-Density Polyethylene) market showed different trends in Asia and Europe. In China, prices went up by 1.1% as supply was slightly limited and a 90-day pause in tariffs between the U.S. and China boosted short-term demand. This led to more export activity, especially from U.S. buyers, even though the broader economy remained weak. On the other hand, HDPE prices in Germany fell by 3.6% because there was too much supply and not enough demand from industries like packaging, construction, and automotive. Even though production costs dropped due to cheaper ethylene, trading stayed slow and overall market sentiment remained weak.

Key Takeaways:

• HDPE prices rose in China, supported by short-term demand, and restrained supply.
• German HDPE prices declined amid ongoing oversupply and weak demand.
• China's temporary tariff pause with the U.S. lifted export interest, but long-term demand concerns persist.
• Germany’s subdued procurement activity and weak automotive sales continued to suppress HDPE consumption.

In China, HDPE supply was limited, which helped keep prices steady as local availability could not meet growing export demand. Ethylene feedstock costs stayed unchanged, so producers did not get any cost relief. At the same time, key economic indicators showed signs of a slowdown—China’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, while production and new orders were also below 50, indicating reduced factory activity and demand.

Still, the 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs sparked a short-term rise in demand. Traders expected more orders from U.S. buyers trying to beat future duties, leading some suppliers to hold back offers in hopes of raising prices. Spot buying increased, especially from polyethylene traders looking to restock. However, downstream buyers stayed cautious and held off on large purchases. 

 In Germany, HDPE prices fell due to too much supply and weak demand. Even though there were some signs of a recovery in manufacturing, low buying from key sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive pushed prices down. Spot trading stayed quiet, with buyers placing fewer orders for May—partly because public holidays across Europe slowed business. 

Even though the EU recently approved tariffs on U.S. polyethylene, a 90-day pause, and earlier shipment cancellations mean any drop in imports will likely be short-lived, possibly tightening supply slightly in late May or June. In the auto sector, new car registrations fell by 4.2% compared to the previous month, showing demand is still weak. With high inventory levels and buyers staying cautious, HDPE prices in Germany are likely to stay under pressure in the near term.

ChemAnalyst expects HDPE prices to fall in both China and Germany in the weeks ahead. In China, the recent boost in demand from the tariff pause is likely to be short-lived, especially with domestic manufacturing still facing challenges. As this temporary optimism fades, lower demand is expected to pull prices down. In Europe, too much supply and continued weak demand from key industries like packaging and automotive are likely to keep pushing HDPE prices lower—unless there is a clear recovery in downstream buying activity.