In the first week of May 2025, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) prices moved in opposite directions across Asian and European markets. China saw a price increase supported by improved export activity and limited supply, while Germany experienced continued price declines amid abundant availability and weak demand for LLDPE.

Key Takeaways:

• LLDPE prices increased in China due to tight supply and short-term demand growth driven by U.S. tariff pause.
• Germany saw further LLDPE price declines amid continued oversupply and muted end-user activity.
• Stable feedstock ethylene costs kept production margins steady in both regions.
• Infrastructure activity in China supported demand, while Germany faced persistent weakness in construction and automotive sectors.

LLDPE prices in China rose by 1% for Film extrusion grade (FOB Shanghai) this week as of May 9, 2025. A 90-day suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China lifted short-term sentiment, prompting increased spot purchases. Some domestic suppliers held back offers in anticipation of firmer pricing. Supply remained moderately tight as domestic output could not fully meet growing export interest, even though feedstock ethylene costs stayed stable and did not ease production expenses.

Downstream construction activity provided additional support, with the sector index climbing to 51.9% and civil engineering projects increasing by 6.4 points from March. However, demand from the automotive sector remained weak. New-energy vehicle sales fell 7%, while overall passenger car sales dropped 8% month-on-month in April. Despite these mixed signals, temporary product demand and active restocking helped push prices higher in the short term.

In Germany, LLDPE prices dropped by 0.7% during the week. Domestic supply remained ample, and lower ethylene costs reduced production expenses, allowing producers to maintain output. However, oversupply and weak downstream demand limited their pricing power. Spot activity was minimal, and order volumes for May stayed low, particularly during a week affected by public holidays across Europe.

Demand for LLDPE from key downstream sectors remained subdued this week. Packaging and construction offtake stayed soft, while automotive demand declined further in April. Although overall construction activity showed signs of stabilization, the housing segment continued to underperform, reflecting limited investment confidence, and impacting product demand.

ChemAnalyst expects LLDPE prices in both China and Germany to move lower through the rest of May. In China, the recent price rise from the temporary pause in tariffs is likely to fade as weak factory activity limits steady demand. In Germany, too much supply and low buying interest from key sectors like packaging and automotive will likely keep prices under pressure. Unless demand picks up noticeably, the LLDPE prices in both regions are expected to stay soft.