China’s LPG market is expected to strengthen into June 2026, with propane and butane forecast to rise around 5% as Middle East export disruptions persist and petrochemical demand improves. Ongoing force majeure related constraints at Juaymah, Al Jubail, and Ras Laffan, combined with Iranian export interruptions, are likely to keep June cargo availability tight. Elevated freight, insurance, and rerouting costs continue to support delivered prices, while PDH operators prepare to lift run rates as margins stabilize. Record US exports will help moderate tightness but are unlikely to fully offset Gulf constraints. May’s trend was marked by sharp volatility: butane surged in April. Strong petrochemical and residential demand, alongside high freight costs, sustained premiums despite fluctuating crude and shifting Gulf cargo flows. Overall, June sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with logistics and Middle East supply risks as key drivers.
