China mLLDPE-FOB Qingdao prices rose modestly in late January, underpinned by a cautious uptrend as pre-holiday stockpiling and upstream cost pressures persisted. Earlier in January conditions cooled briefly before mid-January, when buying for the Spring Festival lifted values again. Speculative interest rose on firmer crude costs and geopolitical uncertainty, supporting firmer seller offers. Many factories entered seasonal shutdowns from late January, creating a short, mixed window in which temporary tightness in flows met expectations of weaker downstream activity after the holiday. The mLLDPE demand was uneven across sectors: packaging-related buying sustained activity amid urgent replenishment and pre-holiday stockpiling, while agriculture remained soft with agricultural film in a seasonal lull. General end-user activity showed slowing momentum at the month's start and end, though targeted stocking by converters provided intermittent support. Supply-side dynamics reinforced the bias to higher prices through ongoing maintenance plans, slower capacity additions, and tighter logistics.
China mLLDPE prices rose 1.29% in late January 2026, per weekly assessment data, as market sentiment remained tilted toward a modest uptrend following pre-holiday stockpiling and upstream cost pressure. Early January saw softer conditions and a short-lived bearish phase, while mid-January buying ahead of the Spring Festival helped lift values. Rising crude oil and geopolitically driven uncertainty prompted speculative interest, supporting firmer seller offers for mLLDPE. Meanwhile, many factories began seasonal shutdowns from late January into early February, creating a short, mixed window in which temporary tightness in flows met expectations of weaker downstream activity after the holiday.
Demand dynamics for mLLDPE were uneven across downstream sectors. Packaging-related buying supported prices in mid-January as procurement for urgent replenishment and pre-Spring Festival stockpiling increased activity, while agriculture remained weak with agricultural film in seasonal off-peak. General downstream/end-user activity showed reducing momentum at the start and finish of the month, although targeted stocking by some converters provided intermittent support. The divergence was reflected in weekly movements: mid-January rallies coincided with concentrated buying from packaging and select industrial users, whereas agricultural demand failed to add meaningful lift to mLLDPE volumes.
Supply-side drivers reinforced the upward bias for mLLDPE. Elevated crude oil costs raised feedstock pressure and encouraged firmer offers from sellers, and planned PE plant maintenance and slower new capacity deployment slightly contracted available spot material. Tight shipping schedules further constrained effective supply, even as some early maintenance units returned to operation and overall operating rates remained relatively low. Planned plant shutdowns and seasonal factory holidays for the Spring Festival added a short-term layer of uncertainty to flows, supporting price resilience in the near term for mLLDPE.
Weekly trend patterns show a clear run of gains into the end of January rather than a volatile reversal. Per weekly assessment data of mLLDPE, a notable mid-January advance surpassed a 2% weekly rise, and subsequent weeks recorded steady increases as speculative sentiment and feedstock pressure persisted. mLLDPE prices rose through the middle of January into the final weeks before the festival and continued to climb into early February, with the early-February uptick maintaining the modest uptrend evident across recent weeks.
Looking ahead, the mLLDPE near-term outlook is for a modest uptrend based on current market trends, supported by continued crude oil strength, geopolitical uncertainty, and intermittent supply constraints from maintenance and tight logistics. That said, demand for mLLDPE is expected to moderate after the Spring Festival as seasonal factory shutdowns weigh on consumption, making any sustained rally conditional.
