China’s Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices are expected to continue weakening into June 2026, driven by the upcoming monsoon season, softer crude oil expectations, and declining isobutylene feedstock costs. Seasonal monsoon conditions typically reduce demand from coatings, adhesives, and industrial solvent applications, while falling crude benchmarks are likely to pressure isobutylene further, lowering MTBE linked TBA margins. With coastal integrated complexes running steadily and inventories comfortable, supply remains ample, and the absence of an import pull reinforces bearish sentiment. Buyers are adopting short cycle procurement strategies in anticipation of lower June prices. May’s trend already reflected this shift. The FOB TBA Qingdao benchmark, with weekly values easing by May 31, a 3.1% WoW decline. Upstream isobutylene added margin pressure, while steady operating rates and muted spot enquiries accelerated the late May downturn. With feedstock weakness and cautious demand, June pricing is expected to remain under pressure unless crude or downstream sentiment unexpectedly improves.
