Ivory Coast cocoa export prices increased by 5 percent in September 2025, spurred by bean supply tightening, poor weather, and firmer global demand. Excessive rain caused dry-season dryness and hindered transport in major cocoa-producing areas, limiting the number of export-quality beans available. Harbor congestion and transport issues also contributed to premiums, while official quality checks and licensing reform curtailed export quantities. On the buying side, European grinders and chocolate producers increased purchasing for cocoa prior to the holiday season, and there was also solid Asian demand. This gave a boost to FOB Ivory Coast differentials over Ghanaian and Nigerian origins. Macroeconomic factors, including appreciating dollar and speculative purchases in cocoa futures, added impetus to the rising trend. Forward, early predictions of the lower main crop output and ongoing logistical constraints indicate firm price direction will persist in Q4. Supply chain managers take note: these emphasize increased volatility risks and strategic sourcing diversification requirements.
Ivory Coast cocoa export prices rose strongly in September 2025 as assessments increased by 5% with values settling at USD 9975/MT in September compared to the previous month, regional trade sources reported. This was spurred on by a combination of tight bean supply, climatic disruptions during the mid-crop period, and robust global demand for cocoa, led by European chocolate makers and grinders stocking up for the winter festival season.
Procurement managers all along the confectionery supply chain were hit when Ivory Coast, the globe's largest cocoa producer, was reeling under lower farmer deliveries to major ports such as Abidjan and San Pedro. Forward October offer shipments reflected an upbeat tone, consistent with the view that the upward trend will prevail during Q4.
Weather and Harvest Dynamics Add Pressure
September climatic conditions delivered high levels of rainfall to major cocoa-producing areas, hindering drying operations and bean transportation. Consequently, quality issues increased, with exporters citing reduced levels of exportable beans. Logistics issues added to the problem: scarce truck supply and high port activities slowed loading levels, contributing to export premiums.
Market participants pointed out that although the bigger main crop coming in from October might alleviate some pressure, initial indications point to below-trend yields, with market tightness very much in the spotlight.
Global Demand Reinforces Price Gains
Additionally, Cocoa demand side was supported by European and North American purchasers increasing purchases in anticipation of ongoing supply deficits. European grinding margins strengthened in September, encouraging chocolate makers to secure volumes before the high-consumption season. Indonesia and Malaysia in Asia were also showing better-than-expected demand, underpinning higher offer prices out of Ivory Coast.
Spot trade statistics revealed that purchasers were prepared to pay increased premiums to cocoa purchase shipments, with FOB Ivory Coast differentials rising against both Ghanaian and Nigerian origin beans.
Currency and Macro Trends underpin Prices
The cocoa sector also gained indirectly from macroeconomic trends. The fall of the West African CFA franc against the U.S. dollar prompted the exporters to ask for higher dollar-denominated prices. Meanwhile, speculative inflows into soft commodities, particularly cocoa futures, lifted sentiment further, narrowing the gap between physical and paper markets.
Implications for Supply Chain Managers
For supply chain and procurement executives, the September rally indicates increasing danger of cocoa volatility in sources. Buyers are not just seeing increasing costs from bean prices but from increasing freight and insurance on West African shipping routes because of geopolitical uncertainty. Strategy analysts are increasingly seeking long-term contracts and hedging origins in Latin America to reduce exposure.
The surge also raises concerns over downstream ramifications. European chocolate makers are likely to experience margin squeeze unless they can progressively transfer costs onto others, while Asian processors with limited hedging choices might experience profitability squeezed.
Outlook: Firm Trend into Q4 and Beyond
In the future, market players tend to expect Ivory Coast cocoa export prices to stay firm during Q4 2025. With early main crop estimates showing declines in yields compared with the year-ago period, and with ongoing logistical restrictions, supply tightness isn't likely to ease appreciably. Support on the demand side, enabled by strong European grinding interest and classic chocolate season consumption, should remain supporting bullish sentiment.
Some expect additional gains through November if weather continues to be adverse. But there are risks: a rapid turn-around in harvest yields, quicker port clearances, or weaker demand for grinding could curb price gains.
